Sunrise 6:17 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 6:09 AM   Moonset 9:18 PM

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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 122 Pm Edt Thu May 9 2024
This afternoon - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Tonight - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt, decreasing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 5 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. Fri - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms. Fri night - W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 6 seconds and ne 1 ft at 13 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms. Sat - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: nw 3 ft at 5 seconds and ne 1 ft at 13 seconds. Sat night - W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: W 2 ft at 5 seconds and ne 1 ft at 11 seconds. Sun - NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Mon - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Mon night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 122 Pm Edt Thu May 9 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - Southwesterly winds will persist until the arrival of a cold front on Friday. SEvere storms will be possible until the front pushes through. Offshore flow will follow the passage of the boundary for a few days, possibly turning back ashore Monday.

FXUS62 KILM 091410 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1010 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

SYNOPSIS
A typical summer time pattern will lead to daily showers and thunderstorms through Friday, sparked by a series of shortwaves moving across the area. A cold front Friday night will bring much cooler and drier air for the weekend and start of next week. Rain chances return for the middle of next week.

UPDATE
Widespread cloud cover across the area this morning has allowed for temperatures much cooler than the original forecast suggested. Cloud cover has opened up a bit over the last hour or so, but regardless, I needed to adjust the temperatures accordingly.

Shortwave energy is carrying a line of showers and storms moving through parts of the CSRA and SC Midlands. Outflows and subsidence have kept the local forecast area stable thus far, but instability should be building inland within the next hour or two. Meanwhile, the SSW propagation of the showers and storms has created doubts on how widespread the severe weather threat is across northeast SC. The thinking this morning has been that most of the severe weather will stay to the south in Lowcountry, but the steering flow is angled enough for Williamsburg and Georgetown Counties to catch some of these storms this afternoon. Ultimately think that if severe weather occurs in our forecast area this afternoon, this is the most likely area.

Instability profiles support severe hail and damaging winds, with isolated tornadoes playing a much more secondary threat.
With that said, I'm curious to see how the damaging wind threat unfolds as the storms inch closer to the coast. Marine layer should have an influence on the coastal regions all day, allowing for a layer of protection within the boundary layer.
Some areas might be spared from the damaging wind threat.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Forecast a bit on the convoluted side for the near term. The pattern will be characterized by southwesterly flow at the surface veering to westerly in the mid and upper levels. In the very near term a line of convection will approach from the west with a weakening trend from N to S, likely (hopefully) weakening 13-15Z.
This pattern lead to a very active afternoon of convection yesterday that favored our NC counties over SC and today is shaping up to be quite active as well. There should be a lull through the morning hours due to subsidence behind the aforementioned convective line.
The atmosphere will then destabilize once again ahead of the convective mass over TN translates eastward. Instability should climb to the 2k-2500 J/Kg range, including a healthy amount in the hail growth zone. SPC has the entire area in SLGHT but with lower hail probs over NC zones. Whether or not this pans out remains to be seen but what seems more interesting is that many forms of the WRF don't really love convection over much of NC at all. This may be a vestige of yesterday's deep overturning especially if the next line is faster and instability doesn't form with quite the vigor as progged, a distinct possibility. Not really ready to cut that diamond at this time and will advertise svr storms area-wide, albeit with higher POPS across SC. Directional shear not too supportive of tornados but with what will end up a rather 'messy' radar presentation this PM a few storm interactions could lead to the stray spinup. Rain chances taper off early tonight thanks to weak mid level ridging and subsidence behind the convection this PM/eve.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
SPC continues to highlight the area in a Marginal Risk of severe weather (threat level 1 out of 5). The airmass overall is certainly conducive to severe weather, however there's a lot of uncertainty over placement of any morning convection and the subsequent stabilizing effect. Chances of rain Friday though are a bit higher than today...50-55%, with both a morning shortwave passing through then another one in the evening. Main threats with severe storms would be damaging wind gusts and large hail. Rain chances end during the evening with dry air moving in following a cold fropa.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A dry and cooler weekend is in store as the aforementioned cold front races offshore. High temps in the mid 70s Saturday nudge up to the upr 70s for Sunday as sfc high pressure moves offshore. Rain chances return Tuesday and Wednesday, and are higher than normal for Days 6-7 (50-60% PoPs) as guidance is in good agreement on an upr-level trough moving through the eastern CONUS, the details of which will be fine-tuned in future updates. Temps remain near normal, with highs averaging in the upr 70s to mid 80s.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Current showers moving across the area not really depicted in much guidance but environmentally should continue to wane in both coverage and intensity. Then after a brief break the deeper convection currently over TN will mov in by midday. These storms will grow intense if not severe and lead to not only much lowered flight categories but also strong gusty winds. Not sure which areas have the best chance of seeing these storms but have opted to hit SC a little harder. Precip tapers from west to east rather quickly overnight. MVFR fog a little hard to rule out esp in places that see the most rain today.

Extended Outlook...Threat of more widespread strong convection with periodic flight restrictions possible later Thu into Fri ahead of a strong CFP. High pressure to prevail late Fri into the weekend with VFR dominating.

MARINE
Through Tonight: The area remains between high pressure well offshore and surface troughiness to the NW. This will keep the wind out of the SW and a few gust to 25kt seem possible but not at all with the frequency that would justify SCA headlines. The main factor inhibiting frequent gusts it the veering with height that will inhibit vertical momentum transfer. Later day thunderstorms will defiantly pose the main hazard today into early tonight.

Friday through Monday: Sub-SCA conditions continue this period.
Some uptick in the winds following a cold fropa Friday evening, but only up to ~20 kt. Weaker westerly flow then follows through Sunday, before winds shift to southerly for Monday as sfc high pressure becomes established offshore. After 2-4 ft seas Friday/Saturday, expect only up to 2 ft for Sunday/Monday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Myrtle Beach, Combination Bridge, South Carolina, Tide feet

Myrtle Beach (Springmaid Pier)
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Thu -- 03:07 AM EDT     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:05 AM EDT     5.07 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:02 PM EDT     -0.67 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:23 PM EDT     6.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:17 PM EDT     Moonset
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Myrtle Beach (Springmaid Pier), South Carolina, Tide feet

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