Tuesday, October15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Forestbrook, SC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 6:43PM Tuesday October 15, 2019 6:52 AM EDT (10:52 UTC) Moonrise 7:05PMMoonset 7:47AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 608 Am Edt Tue Oct 15 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning...
Today..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..SE winds 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Wed..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Rain with isolated tstms.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Rain with isolated tstms in the evening.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 kt. Seas 2 ft, then 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..E winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 608 Am Edt Tue Oct 15 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Dry high pressure will build from the north today. S and sw winds will intensify beginning Wednesday, as a warm front begins to lift north over the area, accompanied by reduced visibility in rain. Cool high pressure will build over the waters Thursday and Friday, then offshore this weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forestbrook, SC
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location: 33.74, -78.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 150803
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
403 am edt Tue oct 15 2019

Synopsis
Clouds will increase and thicken through today as a warm front
begins to lift north over the area, leading to rain tonight
into Wednesday. Unseasonably cool weather will arrive Thursday
as high pressure builds in Thursday and Friday. Temperatures
will warm through the weekend as the high shifts offshore.

Near term through Wednesday
A quiet weather day today, will be partially muddled by high cloud
passage off a wet southern stream system laid out across the gulf
states this morning. Recent satellite passes with precipitable water
sensing arrays, show an axis if 2.2 inch pwat values from louisiana
to the western tip of the florida panhandle. Much of this will pass
south of our area during the next 24 hours, where risks of excessive
rain prevail.

As the steering flow backs Wednesday, the higher pwat content will
be pulled across the area ahead of a cold front. QPF is uncertain
because of the expected disorganized nature of the rain areas and
convection. The coastal zones should have more exposure to the
moisture stream, and am expecting 3 4-1.25 inches coast, to 1 2
inch farther inland. Low-end cape, dewpoint rises into the 60s,
and moderate effective shear could result in an isolated
rumble, but mainly rain and showers expected.

Filtered sunshine and a seasonably cool start should hold most max-
ts in the 70s today. Southerly flow and periods of rain will result
in 70s again on Wednesday.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night
A change in air mass will arrive Wed night into thurs. Any
lingering pcp or clouds Wed eve will move rapidly off to the
east leading to clearing skies and much cooler and drier
weather for thurs as high pressure builds in. A deep NW flow
will advect plenty of dry and cool air into the carolinas. Pcp
water values will down near .35 inches by thurs morning. The
850 temps will drop about 10c by thurs aftn in deep cold
advection. Bright oct sunshine will not be enough to offset the
caa, leaving high temps below 70 most places. Overall expect
cool and dry high pressure to settle over the carolinas. Enough
cool air will advect in Wed night to bring overnight lows down
below 50 most places, but thurs night should drop into the mid
40s most places.

Long term Friday through Monday
High pressure will be migrating overhead through Friday before
shifting offshore late Sat into sun. The cold and dry air mass
will modify by the end of the weekend as a southerly return flow
sets up. Therefore temps running below normal at the start of
the weekend will warm above normal by early next week. Decent
radiational cooling will give way to another night in the 40s
while daytime highs will be reaching near 70. By the end of the
weekend, temps will be up near 80 for highs and in the 60s for
lows. Sunny days will give way to increasing clouds and chc of
pcp Sun night into Mon as warm air starts to ride up and over
the shallow cooler air in place as warm front coastal trough

Aviation 06z Tuesday through Saturday
Vfr, except patches of fog near the coast through 11z. Light
veering wind today. Clouds increase overnight due to upstream
warm front, butVFR through 6z tonight. Virga late in TAF cycle
may induce moderate turbulence at times.

Extended outlook... Ifr MVFR conditions Tuesday night through
Wednesday with an improvement to cooler and drier conditions and
vfr through the remainder of the period.

Marine
A warm frontal system will bring worsening marine conditions, but
not until Wednesday. For today NE winds will lighten and veer to se
late today and tonight. Rain in reduced visibility and increasing
winds, will overspread the waters Wednesday and a small craft
advisory has been raised for ssw gusts to 25 kt and 6-7 foot seas
offshore. Wind-seas will dominate the wave spectrum Wednesday,
making for hazardously steep waves. Visibility may be reduced to
below 1 nm at times Wednesday in heavy rain. Isolated tstms
possible.

Strong CAA in gusty offshore winds behind cold front, should
keep seas in the 3 to 5 ft range. The offshore flow will keep
greatest seas in the outer waters and may have enough 6 fters to
create a marginal SCA through Wed night. Gradient relaxes as
high pressure builds in from the west. Speeds drop to 10 kt or
less later Thu with offshore flow slowly become onshore Fri into
sat. Seas build from 2 to 3 ft Tue night to 4 to 6 ft on wed.

Offshore flow Wed night into Thu will drop seas for the end of
the week. Seas will be a mix of 4 to 5 sec wind wave, with a
northerly wind wave Thu through sat.

Tides coastal flooding
Minor tidal flooding requires an advisory for the lower CAPE fear
river with this late morning's high tide. This to include downtown
wilmington, and the battleship park grounds across the way.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... Coastal flood advisory from 10 am this morning to noon edt
today for ncz107.

Marine... Small craft advisory from noon Wednesday to noon edt Thursday
for amz250-252-254-256.

Synopsis... Ilm
near term... Mjc
short term... Rgz
long term... Rgz
aviation... Mjc 08
marine... Mjc rgz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 6 mi52 min 65°F
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 25 mi44 min NNE 7.8 G 9.7 67°F 75°F1019.4 hPa
41119 25 mi62 min 75°F1 ft
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 30 mi67 min NNW 1.9 63°F 1018 hPa60°F
41108 49 mi52 min 76°F2 ft

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC3 mi56 minN 310.00 miFair60°F57°F93%1019.2 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC12 mi59 minN 310.00 miFair60°F57°F93%1018.9 hPa
Conway Horry County Airport, SC12 mi77 minN 07.00 miFair52°F51°F100%1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMYR

Wind History from MYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5SW5SW6NW6NW84W5NW5W8S7S6S7S6SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmNW3NW3N3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmS6S7S9S8SE10S10S8S10S9S7S9S10S10S8SW6SW4W3W15
G18
S9SW6SW6
2 days agoNW3NW4W6W10W7NW853S12S12S11S10S8S10S8S9S8S8W5SW4S4CalmSW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach, Combination Bridge, South Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach (Springmaid Pier), South Carolina
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Myrtle Beach (Springmaid Pier)
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:50 AM EDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:54 AM EDT     6.14 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:16 PM EDT     0.92 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:20 PM EDT     5.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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31.80.90.71.22.33.755.96.15.84.93.62.41.40.91.11.82.94.155.55.44.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.