Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 6:16AM||Sunset 8:26PM||Thursday July 18, 2019 1:09 PM EDT (17:09 UTC)||Moonrise 8:53PM||Moonset 6:43AM||Illumination 97%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forestbrook, SCHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus62 kilm 181625|
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1225 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019
A trough approaching from the west through Friday will produce
a greater chance of showers and thunderstorms, however the
hot and humid weather will continue thru the weekend and into
early next week. A cold front could push to and across the
forecast area the middle of next week, and possibly break the
string of hot and humid days.
Near term through Friday
As of 1100 am Thursday... Although today will be similar to the
past couple of days, a few differences stand out. First, our
cloud cover this morning was slightly greater with high debris clouds
spilling down over the area. Secondly, a mid level trough will
shift slowly eastward making its way across the carolinas later
today through Friday.
Any lingering mid to high clouds will dissipate, but cu
development is expected similar to yesterday with main focus
along sea breeze and inland trough. Not expecting the morning
cloud cover to have much effect on overall temp rise and
therefore heat advisory conditions still expected this afternoon
as high heat and humidity combine to produce dangerous heat with
heat indices up around 105. Temps will reach into the mid 90s
once again this aftn and Fri with overnight lows between 75 and
The trough approaching from west will help to enhance convective
development in an already unstable atmosphere. All models point
at a late day spike in convection inland with activity
diminishing as it moves toward the coast closer to midnight.
Therefore best chc of greater storm coverage will be i-95
corridor late aftn and shifting toward the coast in a westerly
steering flow, but diminishing later this evening into early
overnight hour as we lose heating.
The mid level trough will remain aligned from SW to NE over the
carolinas as it eases slightly eastward overnight into fri. This
should help to maintain greater cloud cover and convective
activity with slightly higher SW winds through fri. This trough
is coming up against ridge over the atlantic, though which
should re-exert itself, especially heading into the weekend.
Depending on how quickly, should end up with limited, if any
activity heading into Fri night, but another hot day expected on
Short term Friday night through Saturday night
As of 300 am Thursday... Though greatly diminished in coverage and
intensity, thunderstorms will still be possible Friday night.
Shortwave ripples of energy will be providing mid level ascent atop
piedmont trough induced surface convergence. Mid level trough axis
crosses on Saturday turning flow northerly and then easterly. The
piedmont trough also weakens and should serves as less of a focus
for convection. The sea breeze should be the primary mechanism. With
the weakened surface boundary and a slight rising of heights rain
chances should fall to minimal Saturday night. Temperatures by day
and night will run similarly elevated to previous days.
Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 300 am Thursday... What starts Sunday as a weakness in the
height field between two ridges will gradually transition into
bonafide troughiness in the east. This will lead to a gradual
ramp up of rain chances and a gradual abating trend in the heat.
Surface frontal passage is slated for Tuesday or perhaps a tad
slower. Even with some of the quicker solutions rain chances
will linger into Wednesday due to the proximity of the boundary.
Temperatures will finally dip below climatology.
Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 18z...VFR. Scattered high clouds across area with cumulus
clouds beginning to develop away from the immediate coast.
Expect low clouds to diminish into overnight hours with few high
clouds remaining. Isolated storms still possible for this
afternoon, with increased chance of rain from approaching trough
around 0z inland and 3z towards to coast. Greater chance of
coverage and thunderstorms inland, and so have included vcts for
flo and lbt, and only vcsh for coastal terminals. No fog
concerns due to elevated winds overnight and marginal low level
moisture. South-southwest winds through tomorrow.
Extended outlook...VFR conditions are expected outside any isolated
to widely scattered convection through Monday, with increased chances
of rain Tuesday.
As of 1100 am Thursday... Light southerly winds with afternoon
gusts up to 20-25 kts as sea breeze circulation develops for the
next 36 hours. Wave heights between 2 to 4 feet and isolated 5
feet expected out of the southwest around 4 to 6 seconds with
swell from the southeast around 10 seconds.
Southwesterly flow so typical of the time of
year will weaken Friday night as piedmont trough does the same. They
will continue in the 10-15 kt range early in the weekend, which
should allow the 4 ft seas to be dropped out of the forecast. Later
in the weekend both the 20kt winds and 4 ft seas should make their
return as the trough restrengthens.
Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for scz017-023-024-
Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for scz054-
Nc... Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for ncz087-096-099-
Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz106-
near term... Mck rgz
short term... mbb
long term... mbb
marine... Mck mbb rgz
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC||6 mi||69 min||83°F|
|41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2)||25 mi||61 min||SW 12 G 18||83°F||83°F||1016.6 hPa|
|41119||25 mi||139 min||83°F||3 ft|
|NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC||30 mi||84 min||WSW 7||89°F||1016 hPa||76°F|
|41108||49 mi||69 min||85°F||4 ft|
Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC||3 mi||73 min||WSW 11||10.00 mi||Fair||90°F||73°F||59%||1016.7 hPa|
|North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC||12 mi||76 min||WSW 8||10.00 mi||Fair||90°F||73°F||59%||1016.4 hPa|
|Conway Horry County Airport, SC||12 mi||74 min||W 5||5.00 mi||Fair with Haze||88°F||73°F||62%||1016.9 hPa|
Wind History from MYR (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||S||S||S||S||S||S||S||S||S||S||S||S||S||SW||S||SW||SW||S||SW||SE||S||S||S||S|
|2 days ago||S||SE||S||S||S||S||S||SW||SW||SW||W||Calm||SW||W||Calm||Calm||SW||SW||SW||Calm||SW||SE||S||S |
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GOES Local Image of Southeast EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop
Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (13,3,4,5)(on/off)  Help
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