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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 847 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Rest of today..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw late. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..NE winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms in the morning, then showers with a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Showers, mainly in the evening.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 847 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure offshore will prevail through Saturday. Hazardous conditions are then expected Sunday into Monday as a strong storm system impacts the area. Conditions will then improve as high pressure builds back into the area for next week.

FXUS62 KILM 081116 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 616 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will shift farther offshore today. A strong storm system will bring rain and strong winds Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure then builds in behind the cold front for most of next week bringing cool and dry weather once again.

UPDATE
No big changes with the latest update. Might be a bit of patchy fog through daybreak but didn't think it was enough to include in the forecast.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Today...Forecast confidence is high with no significant concerns. Expect low to mid-level high pressure to prevail with mainly some mid and high clouds around. This should hold high temps down a bit below what the 1000-850 mb thicknesses would suggest, but still a bit above normal in the mid 60s most locales.

Tonight...Forecast confidence is high with no significant concerns. Low-level moisture will be increasing from the southeast late and the increased clouds/winds/dewpoints will yield warmer than normal low temps, mostly in the mid to upper 40s. May even see a few light showers/sprinkles along the coast near daybreak as low-level moisture/isentropic ascent increases there.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Saturday will be characterized by increasing dewpoints, mostly clear skies, and well above normal temps in the low 70s as WAA strengthens around offshore high and approaching frontal system.
Clouds and light rain move into the area during the night Saturday night in prefrontal isentropic lift with low temps near 60F. Sunday remains the main event. Guidance has delayed the arrival of the cold front until late Sunday evening/early overnight. This has led to less saturated soundings during the day Sunday and potential for sufficient instability in the afternoon for thunderstorms. The strongest winds will be delayed, but there's enough bulk shear during the day to warrant low severe chances if any deep convection develops. Pretty good rain chances majority of the daylight hours Sunday. Gradient wind gusts are still a concern Sunday afternoon into overnight hours. Could see gusts up to 30-35 mph during the day across the area. Winds just above the surface really crank up just ahead of the approaching system along the coast Sunday evening, and that's when we could see gusts around 40 mph (possibly more)
especially across coastal counties. Rain chances will be best just ahead of the front when PWATs increase to 1.5-1.75", which is near climo max, and upper level forcing from PVA and REQ of jet support deep lift. Current storm total rainfall forecast is around 1-1.75", with higher amounts to the east and locally higher amounts likely. Cold front looks to move across early Sunday night, with rain chances ending quick and cool, dry air moving in behind it.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Quiet weather in store for most of next week as high pressure builds in over the eastern U.S. behind the front and lingers for days maintaining strong subsidence and dry conditions. Cool start to the week with well below normal temps will slowly warm mid-week, though remain just below normal.

AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High confidence in VFR conditions across SE NC and NE SC through 12Z/09 with high pressure prevailing. Low risk for MVFR ceilings late tonight, especially near the coast. Mainly light SW winds are expected.

Extended Outlook...MVFR ceilings could develop tonight but are more likely late Saturday night through Sunday night as a strong cold front moves through with some heavy showers and possible storms.
Thus, IFR or even LIFR conditions are possible as well. Winds will also be strong/gusty Sunday into Monday.

MARINE
Through Tonight...Forecast confidence is high. High pressure will extend west into the area keeping winds generally southwesterly, mainly 15 kt or less with seas 2 ft or less.

Saturday through Tuesday...Benign marine conditions to start the period Saturday through early Saturday night, with winds 10 kts or less and seas 2 ft from wind chop and ENE swell. By Sunday morning, southerly winds and seas will be deteriorating rapidly gradient tightens ahead of an approaching frontal system. SCA conditions, winds 20-25 kts with gusts 25-30 kts and seas 4-6 ft, currently expected by late Sunday morning. Winds and seas will continue to increase throughout the day and into evening hours, peaking near end of the day Sunday as winds just above the surface ramp up quickly as system approaches the coast. Confidence isn't high with regards to how much of those stronger winds aloft mix down to the surface over the coastal waters, but might not take much for gusts of 35-40 kts to materialize and a Gale Watch may be needed. Chance of rain and thunderstorms over the waters during the day Sunday, with heaviest rain expected just ahead of the front late Sunday.

Cold front moves across the waters Sunday night with gusty offshore winds in place by Monday morning. Winds and seas will be improving as day progresses Monday, and may be sub-advisory by midday. High pressure builds over the eastern U.S. for most of next week with northerly winds prevailing. Seas 3-4 ft late Monday through Tuesday as SSE swell continues to weaken and ENE swell develops.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Keysfield
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:02 AM EST     0.73 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:13 AM EST     1.41 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:14 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:39 PM EST     0.88 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:07 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:19 PM EST     1.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Keysfield, Waccamaw River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Conway
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:10 AM EST     0.60 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:23 AM EST     1.26 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:13 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:07 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:47 PM EST     0.73 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:29 PM EST     1.18 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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