Sunrise 5:49 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 12:46 PM   Moonset 1:56 AM

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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 733 Am Pdt Wed May 15 2024
Today - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds and sw 2 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Tonight - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 ft at 8 seconds and S 2 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog. Thu - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds and S 2 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Thu night - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 ft at 8 seconds and S 2 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Fri - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Mixed swell W 2 ft at 8 seconds and S 2 ft at 16 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Fri night - W winds 15 to 20 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds and sw 2 ft at 17 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Sat - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft and sw 3 ft. Patchy fog. Sun - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft and sw 3 ft. Patchy fog.

PZZ600 733 Am Pdt Wed May 15 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 12z, or 5 am pdt, a 1030 mb surface high was centered 650 nm west of portland, oregon, while a 1002 mb thermal low was located along the california-arizona border. Light to moderate west to northwest flow will continue across the coastal waters.

FXUS66 KLOX 151026 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 326 AM PDT Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
14/834 PM.

Consistent weather expected for the next few days. Coastal areas will continue to see low clouds and below normal temperatures. In contrast, temperatures will be above normal for interior areas, with gusty winds at times, especially across the Antelope Valley.
A slight chance of showers will persist for the mountains each afternoon through Wednesday.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...15/311 AM.

The May Grey pattern will continue through the short term. An upper low will slowly exit the area today and NE flow aloft will develop as it arcs around an upper west of Eureka.

Todays marine layer is about 2000 ft and notably its capping inversion is a little weaker than it was at this time ydy.
Gradients are still strongly onshore and the push to the east could reach 10 mb this afternoon. Low clouds cover all of the coasts and vlys as well as the Paso Robles area. Patchy drizzle is also likely from Malibu and points north. The NE flow aloft and the weaker inversion may join forces to help clearing this afternoon. The higher hgts and hopefully better clearing should lead to 2 to 3 degrees of warming save for the LA coast where the stronger onshore flow will result in 1 to 2 degrees of cooling. As has been the case for the past week the csts/vlys will end up about 6 degrees blo normal and the interior about 6 degrees above normal. The strong onshore push will bring gusty winds to the interior and low end advisory (45 mph) gusts to the westerly Antelope Vly foothills.

One new thing will affect today's weather. The NE flow that sets up this afternoon will advect in just enough instability and moisture to bring a slight chc of an afternoon and early evening TSTM over the LA/VTA mtns and the Antelope vly.

A ridge will move over the state on Thursday pushing hgts up. The clearing trend will be tricky as mdls show better clearing but the higher hgts will lead to a stronger marine inversion which with the strong onshore flow may well bring another afternoon of slow to no clearing for the coastal areas. The higher hgts will lead to a few degrees of warming.

No real changes on Friday. The weak ridge will continue as will the night through morning low clouds and gusty afternoon winds.
Max temps will not change much from Thursday's values.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...15/326 AM.

The upper ridge will push off to the east on Saturday and dry SW flow will move over the area. Ensembles favor better clearing and some warming, but the onshore flow remains strong and would not be surprised if clearing was not as fast and max temps come in a little cooler than fcst.

On Sunday and Monday a fairly high hgt upper low will approach the area from the SW. The lift from this system will reinforce the low cloud pattern and again low clouds will push deep into the vlys and then only clear to the coast. Patchy drizzle will be likely in the mornings. No real strong instability or moisture signals so likely the only effect the low will have on convection is just some mtn CU. Lowering hgts, deeper marine marine layer and stronger onshore flow will bring 3 to 5 degrees of cooling each day. By Monday max temps across the csts/vlys will only be in the mid and upper 60s while the vlys will only top out in the lower to mid 70s. Max temps will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal across the board.

Ensembles are not in the best of agreement for Tuesday but most signal some sort of weak troffing. See no reason why the relentless marine layer cloud pattern should stop. Hgts are higher than on Monday and this should result in a little warming.

AVIATION
15/0615Z.

At 0505Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1600 feet deep. The top of the inversion was around 3100 feet with a temperature of 16 C.

high confidence in desert TAFs.

moderate confidence in coastal/valley TAFs. There is a 20 percent chc of LIFR conds at any site 11Z-15Z. There is a 30 percent chc of clearing at sites with no clearing fcst 21Z-01Z. Flight Cat change timing may be off by +/- 90 minutes.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 15 percent chc of BKN004 conds 11Z-15Z. There is a 20 percent chance that there will be no clearing in the afternoon. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 90 minutes of forecast. Good confidence that there will not be any east wind component greater than 5 kt.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20 percent chc of BKN004 conds 11Z-15Z. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 90 minutes of forecast.

MARINE
15/318 AM.

Winds and seas will remain Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through at least Saturday, except for a 30-50 percent chance of SCA level winds in the vicinity of the Channel Islands and across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel each afternoon and evening.

There is a moderate to high (30-50 percent) chance of SCA conditions early next week, highest beyond 10 NM offshore and in the vicinity of the Channel Islands.

BEACHES
15/318 AM.

An increasing south-southwesterly swell with a moderate long period will move into the coastal waters over the weekend and into next week. This will bring a high to likely (50-60 percent)
chance of strong rip current activity and elevated surf, especially south and southwest facing shores. There is a moderate (30 percent) chance of high surf during this period.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PDT this evening for zone 381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

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