Sunrise 6:12 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 12:02 PM   Moonset 1:15 AM

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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 740 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
.severe Thunderstorm watch 245 in effect until 9 pm edt this evening - .
Tonight - SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late this evening and early morning, then becoming nw late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly this evening. Thu - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 7 seconds and nw 1 ft at 2 seconds. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Thu night - SW winds 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. Fri - W winds 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 6 seconds. Fri night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Sat - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. Showers likely. Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely. Sun - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Sun night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the evening. Mon - N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mon night - N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 740 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles -
a complex storm system will affect the coastal waters into tonight with more tranquil conditions Thu into Fri as weak high pressure prevails. The next frontal system will affect the area Fri night into the weekend.

FXUS62 KILM 151956 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 353 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon into this evening ahead of a cold front that will drop in from the north. High pressure should bring dry weather Thursday with pleasant temperatures. Rain chances will increase again this weekend as a new storm system advances eastward. Drier and warmer weather should develop next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
An upper low will move through the area this afternoon and evening, bringing scattered thunderstorms to the area as it interacts with warm, moist air and a frontal boundary. Some of these storms could produce large hail and wind gusts of 60 mph or greater. The area is in a severe thunderstorm watch until 8 PM. Convection should come to an end this evening with dry weather expected Thursday. Lows tonight will fall to the lower 60s with highs Thursday in the lower 80s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
An H5 ridge axis will move across the area Thursday night and off the coast Friday morning. This change will allow the old low off the Mid-Atlantic coast to shift farther offshore and allow a dampening shortwave to move across the forecast area during Friday afternoon/evening with some increases in rainfall chances. Would trend with higher POPs by that time however moisture is still somewhat limited Friday for this part of the Carolinas, with better advection earlier on in the long term period. Blend of MAV/MET looks reasonable for the highs/lows during this period.



LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The mid/upper low will be across the MS Valley during Saturday and will direct impulses from the Deep South into the Carolinas along with an increase in PWATs (around 2 inches) during the day. GFS ensemble precipitation also suggest categorical to likely POPs will be needed. Sunday looks wet as well with the upper trough across the Carolinas. Big questions remain for the Monday-Tuesday with potential/positioning for a closed low development farther east than currently shown. If the cut-off occurs farther east then POPs will trend downward due to more influence of nearby mid/upper ridge across the Carolinas. At this time, favor the drier scenario Monday through Wednesday, but will need to closely watch how this evolves. Otherwise, highs will be at or above normal through Sunday, then below normal Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Scattered storms are expected this afternoon and early evening.
All terminals showing at least tempo tsra to account for this.
A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect, so gusts over 50 KT and hail in excess of 1 inch is possible at area terminals.
Confidence in occurrence at individual sites is too low for inclusion in terminals attm. If storms with this potential threaten individual sites, amendments will be issued. After showers and storms end, a period of IFR is possible around daybreak at all terminals but strong May sun should quickly raise conditions to VFR.

Extended Outlook...Periodic flight restrictions are possible early Wed evening from thunderstorm activity. VFR conditions to dominate Thu through Fri. The next system with potential flight restrictions will affect the area this weekend.

MARINE
Through Thursday...Southwest winds to 10 to 15 KT are expected tonight and will become N to NW by daybreak before becoming light and variable by afternoon. Seas of 3 to 5 FT tonight will subside to 2 to 4 FT Thursday.

Thursday night through Monday...A large area of low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast will drift farther offshore Thursday night into Friday. Approaching low pressure from the west will allow winds to become southerly during Saturday with veering Sunday as the low moves off the coast. Northerly winds are expected Monday with the low possibly off the NC/SC coast. If the low stays just offshore then the northerly winds will be higher.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Other - Rip Currents: Yesterday's strong onshore winds have abated, however a 4 foot southerly swell every 8 seconds continues to crash onshore. South-facing beaches on Brunswick County and extreme northeasterly Horry County run orthogonal to this swell and will have the largest potential of rip current activity through this evening.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054.
MARINE...None.

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