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FXUS64 KJAN 101553 AAA AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 953 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

New MESOSCALE UPDATE

MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 953 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

The forecast remains on track with no changes. Gusty winds and cooler temperatures continues to move in the wake of a cold front.
Satellite and observation data shows mostly clear skies, with some cloud cover located near the Pine Belt and I-59 corridor. Remaining cloud coverage will diminish by the afternoon. A 4-5 mb pressure gradient will keep gusty, northwest winds. In addition to gusty winds, more cooler air will advect into the region throughout the afternoon. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the area. /SW/



DISCUSSION
Issued at 352 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Today through tonight: The primary weather story in the near term for the forecast area will be the much cooler temperatures expected to continue moving in behind a departing cold front. A sharp thermal trough will move steadily across the area today with a tight pressure gradient supporting blustery conditions as temperatures struggle to reach the upper 40s to lower 50s. For tonight, high pressure will become centered over the area. Wind will diminish under clear skies, making for increasingly favorable cooling conditions, and this should lead to a widespread freeze at most locations. /EC/

Monday through Saturday night: Surface high pressure will strengthen over the region on Monday, with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Surface high pressure will continue on Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the upper 50s to around 60 and lows in the low 30s. Little will change on Thursday with slightly warmer temperatures. The models have had varying solutions for late in the week, with the ECMWF trying to drive another strong short wave across the area, while the GFS has been more suppressed with the system over the gulf. The latest run of the ECMWF is more like the GFS, with a more suppressed system keeping the ArkLaMs mainly dry into the weekend./15/

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

MVFR category stratus will exit eastern portions of the forecast area early this morning. VFR conditions will then prevail for the remainder of the day through tonight, and NNW surface wind will be gusty today in the cold advection weather pattern before subsiding late this afternoon/early evening. /EC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 51 30 56 31 / 10 0 0 0 Meridian 54 29 56 29 / 40 0 0 0 Vicksburg 53 30 56 31 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 56 31 58 32 / 30 0 0 0 Natchez 53 31 57 32 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 50 31 55 32 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 50 29 55 32 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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