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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 529 Am Pst Thu Dec 7 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm pst this afternoon through late tonight...
Today..Western portion, nw winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming 15 to 25 kt with local gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Elsewhere, N winds 10 to 15 kt. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft dominant period 15 seconds, building to 4 to 8 ft dominant period 15 seconds in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tonight..Western portion, nw winds 15 to 25 kt with local gusts to 30 kt in the evening, becoming 10 to 20 kt. NEarshore from point dume to santa Monica, N winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Elsewhere, N winds 10 to 15 kt. Combined seas 5 to 8 ft dominant period 9 seconds.
Fri..From point dume to santa Monica, N to ne winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt early in the morning, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Elsewhere, N to ne winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 9 seconds.
Fri night..From point mugu to malibu, ne winds 10 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt becoming 20 to 30 kt with local gusts to 35 kt after midnight. Elsewhere, ne winds 10 to 20 kt. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 12 seconds.
Sat..From point mugu to malibu, ne winds 20 to 30 kt with local gusts to 35 kt becoming 10 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Elsewhere, ne winds 10 to 20 kt becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 12 seconds.
Sat night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 12 seconds.
Sun..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft.

PZZ600 529 Am Pst Thu Dec 7 2023
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park...at 13z or 5 am pst, a 1028 mb high was located 600 nm W of point conception, and a 1009 mb low was over nevada. Gusty N to nw winds and hazardous seas will affect the coastal waters through Friday, then gusty santa ana winds will affect nearshore waters Friday night through Saturday.

FXUS66 KLOX 071338 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 538 AM PST Thu Dec 7 2023

SYNOPSIS
07/103 AM.

Gusty northerly winds will affect portions of the area today and Friday, with the strongest winds in the mountains. A cooling trend is expected to continue through Friday. On Friday evening, winds will shift into a Santa Ana wind event and continue into early next week with warming temperatures.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...07/538 AM.

The southern end of a very weak surface front was moving across northern areas this morning, There could be a few showers early this morning across interior sections of SLO/SBA Counties, with showers more likely in the mtns of northern Ventura County and far northwestern L.A. County. Rainfall totals will be less than a tenth of an inch. Snow levels will be around 6500 ft, but no snow accumulation is expected. Some low clouds have pushed into coastal and valley areas of L.A. County, with patchy low clouds in Ventura County and on the Central Coast. Skies should become mostly sunny in most areas by late morning. With falling heights and cooling at 850 mb/950 mb, expect significant cooling across the region today, with max temps down 6 to 12 degrees from those reached Wed in most areas. A few locations may be more than 15 degrees cooler than they were on Wed. Overall, temps should be below normal for early December.

After this morning, skies will generally be mostly clear this afternoon through Sat, and the main story will be the winds.
The wind forecast is rather tricky and complex, but in general, most locations will have gusty winds at times through Sat, with some damaging gusts likely in the more favored locations.

N-S gradients have become moderately offshore across SLO and SBA Counties and have become increasingly offshore across Ventura and L.A, County during the past few hours. NW winds were already at advisory levels across the southwestern coast of SBA County and the western Santa Ynez Range, and were beginning to increase across the Interstate 5 Corridor. Winds should reach advisory levels there this morning.

Good cold advection, increasing NW to N flow aloft and strong subsidence should provide ample support for strong to damaging NW to N winds by this afternoon across the interior mtns of SBA County, the eastern Santa Ynez Range, the mtns of Ventura County, and the Interstate 5 Corridor. High Wind Warnings are in effect for these areas through very late tonight, except through mid morning Fri in the Interstate 5 Corridor. Northwest winds will likely reach advisory levels across much of the Central Coast (especially southern portions), across the Santa Ynez Valley, and in the western Antelope Valley foothills this afternoon through late tonight.

Advisory level NW winds will likely spread into the Lake Casitas areas and also into the Santa Clarita Valley and western San Fernando Valley by late this afternoon. Advisory level winds will continue to spread southward early this evening, reaching the eastern Santa Monicas, the Malibu area, as well as across West L.A. to Palos Verdes. Wind advisories are in effect for these areas through late tonight or Fri morning. Winds could get close to advisory levels in the eastern valleys of Ventura County, the eastern San Fernando Valley and through the Hollywood Hills tonight and early Fri, but at this point, expect winds to stay just below advisory levels. That will have to be watched closely today. Skies will be mostly clear tonight and Fri. Max temps on Fri will be similar to those of today in most areas.

There may be somewhat of a break in the winds late Fri morning into Fri afternoon, but winds will shift to a more northeasterly direction Fri night/Sat. W-E gradients will become strongly offshore, with the forecast gradient between KLAX and KDAG expected to be about 9 mb offshore. The more northeasterly direction of the wind will shift the focus of the strongest winds to most of Ventura County, to the mtns of L.A. County, the western and northern valleys of L.A. County, the western Santa Monica range and the Malibu Coast. With the strong offshore gradients, and continue favorable upper level support, there is the potential for damaging NE winds gusts in these areas Fri evening through Sat, except late Fri night through Sat on the Ventura County coastal plain. Wind gusts to 60 mph are possible in the coastal and valley areas, with gusts to 70 mph possible in the mountains and foothills.

Skies will be clear Fri night and Sat. Where the winds drop off Fri night, frost or freeze conditions are likely in the interior, with temps possibly dropping to as low as 20 degrees in wind- sheltered portions of the Antelope Valley. Expect some warming in most areas on Sat as a building upper ridge in the eastern Pacific will cause heights to rise. The best warming will be west of the mtns, where downslope offshore flow will assist in the warming process.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...07/534 AM.

The upper ridge will move into CA on Sun. Low level gradients will remain decently offshore, so gusty NE winds will likely be at or slightly above advisory levels once again Sat night/Sun morning across much of Ventura County and northern/western L.A.
County (except the Antelope Valley). Skies will be mostly clear, though some high clouds may push into the region late Sun once the ridge axis moves east of the area. Max temps should be up a few degrees in most areas, though there may be slight cooling right near the coast.

The ridge will flatten Mon as a trough moves into the West Coast, and heights across the region will fall. There will still likely be some locally gusty NE winds in the morning, but below advisory levels. Some high clouds will likely push across the area. Max temps should be down a few degrees in most areas.

The operational runs of the EC and the GFS both show short wave energy dropping southward down the West Coast, causing the trough to sharpen and eventually evolve into a closed upper low. The EC shows that happening over central CA early Tue, with the upper low drifting into the Great Basin Wed. The GFS is a bit slower to close the low off Tue and it does so farther east than does the EC. However, it shows the upper low dropping southwestward to the CA/AZ border by early Wed. Offshore pressure gradients at the surface will increase again, especially by Wed morning, so there may be another uptick in Santa Ana winds across the region. Heights will lower a bit, so expect a bit of cooling Tue, with possible warming Wed due to some height rises and better offshore flow.

AVIATION
07/1325Z.

At 1238Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2200 ft deep, the top of the weak inversion was at 2600 ft with a temperature of 13 C.

Low to moderate confidence in coastal/valley TAFs, moderate to high confidence in desert TAFs. There is a 20% chance of MVFR conds at KSBP and KSMX through 18Z. There is a chance of IFR-MVFR conds through 18Z at KVNY and KBUR (30% chance), KOXR and KCMA (20%), and KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB (50%). Gusty N winds will be possible tonight with some LLWS and turbulence in and around mountains possible.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 50% chance of BKN008-BKN0015 cigs through 17Z Thurs. There is a 30% chance of an east wind component of 6 kts through 17Z Thurs and a 25% chance of a northerly wind component up to 25 kt 03Z-10Z Fri.

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence through 17Z, then moderate confidence. There is a 30% chance of BKN008-BKN015 cigs through 17Z. There is a 30% chance of north wind gusts up to 25 kt 0Z through 06Z.

MARINE
07/507 AM.

Very difficult forecast over the next few days, causing lower confidence than usual in winds, especially tonight through Saturday morning.

For the Outer Waters and all waters along the Central Coast, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level seas of up to 15 feet will start to subside Friday night into Saturday. There is a 60-70% chance of Gale Force winds across the waters south of Point Conception by this afternoon through tonight, with a 20% chance of local Gale gusts lingering into Friday afternoon. Friday night into Saturday afternoon, there is a 60% chance of N-NE SCA level winds across the waters south of the Channel Islands, and a 30% of N-NE SCA winds across the other portions of the waters into mid- Saturday morning. Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA northerly winds.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, NW SCA level winds expected to expand to the western portions of all the southern inner waters by this afternoon through evening. Tonight into Friday morning, there is a 50-60% chance of N to NE SCA level winds from Malibu to Santa Monica, possibly extending south into the San Pedro Channel. Winds will shift more NE over the day Friday, and strengthen to SCA levels across the waters from Ventura to Santa Monica and out past Anacapa Island, with a 40-50% chance of Gale Force winds nearest shore. There's a 30% chance of SCA winds extending from Orange County out to Catalina Island with gusts of 25 kt and wind waves of 1-3 feet possible Friday night into Saturday morning. There is a 20% chance of lighter SCA winds continuing through Sunday morning. By Sunday afternoon, conds will likely remain below SCA levels.

BEACHES
07/103 AM.

Long period NW swell (15-18 seconds) will affect the coastal waters through tonight. Expect 10 to 14 feet for Central Coast beaches, 5 to 8 feet with local sets to 9 feet for Ventura County beaches, and elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet for LA County beaches.
There is a 40% chance of high surf lingering into Friday afternoon. Surf heights will be highest across west and northwest facing beaches. Due to low astronomical tides, any coastal flooding will be very minimal.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from noon today to 10 AM PST Friday for zone 88. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Wind Watch in effect from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for zones 88-358-362-369-371-372-374-375-379. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Surf Advisory in effect until 2 AM PST Friday for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect from noon today to 3 AM PST Friday for zones 346>348. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Friday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Friday for zones 350-356-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Wind Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM PST Friday for zones 352-353-376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Wind Watch in effect from late Friday night through Saturday afternoon for zones 354-355. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late tonight for zones 362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Friday for zones 362-370. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Friday for zones 366-367. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 AM PST Friday for zones 372-379. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon for zone 378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Wind Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 AM PST Friday for zone 378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Friday for zones 645-650-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Friday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 1 PM PST this afternoon for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Friday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PST Friday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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Los Patos (highway bridge)
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Thu -- 01:27 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:30 AM PST     4.08 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:43 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:23 PM PST     0.89 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:27 PM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:43 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:48 PM PST     2.91 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Los Patos (highway bridge), California, Tide feet

Long Beach
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Thu -- 01:28 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:34 AM PST     4.72 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:44 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:16 PM PST     1.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:28 PM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:44 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:52 PM PST     3.36 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:21 PM PST     1.50 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Long Beach, Inner Harbor, California, Tide feet

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