Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 7:47 PM Moonrise 9:43 AM   Moonset 12:02 AM

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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 902 Pm Pdt Sun May 12 2024
Tonight - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 6 seconds and S 2 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy dense fog in the evening. Patchy dense fog with vsby 1 nm or less. Mon - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 6 seconds and S 2 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy dense fog with vsby 1 nm or less in the morning. Mon night - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 7 seconds and S 2 ft at 15 seconds. Tue - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 7 seconds and S 2 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Tue night - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds and S 2 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Wed - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds and S 2 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Wed night - W winds 10 to 20 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds and S 2 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog. Thu - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft and S 2 ft. Patchy fog. Fri - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft and S 3 ft. Patchy fog.

PZZ600 902 Pm Pdt Sun May 12 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 03z, or 8 pm pdt, a 1028 mb surface high was centered 750 nm west of eureka, california and a 1004 mb surface low was centered near the california-arizona border.

FXUS66 KLOX 130430 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 930 PM PDT Sun May 12 2024

SYNOPSIS
12/837 PM.

Quiet weather will continue the next several days with near to slightly below normal temperatures. Widespread night and morning low clouds are expected across coast and valleys as onshore flow increases. Temperatures will cool slightly through Wednesday, then warm slightly the end of the week. Gusty winds are likely across the mountains and Antelope Valley each afternoon.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...12/836 PM.

A weak upper level ridge of high pressure over the region today brought some warming to the interior, with portions of the Antelope Valley reaching 90 degrees, including Palmdale and Lancaster. Closer to the coast, strengthening onshore flow kept things cool and moist, with persistent low clouds that did not clear in some immediate coastal areas. The LAX-Daggett pressure gradient peaked at +6.1 mb this afternoon, and is expected to increase slightly on Monday and Tuesday as a weak low pressure system approaches the coast.

Earlier this afternoon, there were some cloud buildups across our mountains, but no showers or thunderstorms were observed.
While there is increasing instability across the mountains on Monday afternoon, the moisture content is still minimal. At this time, there is a 5-10 percent chance of thunderstorms on Monday afternoon across the mountains of Ventura and Santa Barbara counties where model soundings do show a slight influx of mid level moisture, mainly above 10,000 feet. If any convection were to develop, there would likely be minimal rainfall, with gusty downdraft winds the main threat.

With Acars sounding showing the marine layer depth around 2000 feet this evening over the LA Basin, looking for low clouds to fill in across most valley areas tonight, including the Santa Clarita Valley. Another slow clearing day is expected on Monday near many coastal areas, but the interior will have another warm day, with Antelope Valley likely approaching 90 degrees once again. There will also be increased onshore winds on Monday afternoon/evening across the interior, especially the Antelope Valley and adjacent foothills which could see wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph.

*** From previous discussion ***

Temperatures will begin a slow decline, especially inland, with most areas either at or slightly below normal. Main exception will be the Antelope Valley and mountains which will be 3-6 degrees above normal through the period. Onshore afternoon breezes will be increasing, possibly to near advisory levels by Tue/Wed in the AV. There's a very small chance (10% or less) for showers and thunderstorms over the mountains each afternoon. Possibly slightly higher chances Tue as the upper low is closest in proximity before it moves southeast Wed.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...12/201 PM.

Deterministic models are closely following the ensembles mean solution for the end of the week and into next weekend, which is high pressure pushing closer to the West Coast Thu and Fri, then retreating to 140w next weekend as another trough falls out of the Gulf of Alaska and into the Pac NW. For coast and valleys probably not much change in the drab night and morning low clouds and fog pattern and minimal variations in daytime temps.
Mountains and interior areas will see some warming later in the week as the high gets closer and onshore flow weakens. But then turning slightly cooler again next weekend.

AVIATION
12/2348Z.

At 2345Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2200 feet deep. The top of the inversion was around 3200 feet with a max temp of 21 C.

Low to moderate confidence in coastal/valley TAFs, high confidence in desert TAFs. Low clouds failed to clear today at KSBA, KOXR, and KCMA and is expected to make a quick surge into remaining coastal TAF sites and KBUR/KVNY through the evening hours.
Timing of flight cat changes may be off by +/- 2 hours. There is a 30 percent chc of flight cats being 1 category lower than fcst after 03Z. LIFR conditions becoming likely later tonight for KSMX/KSBP, with a 20% chance of VLIFR conditions between 06z-14z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 2 hours, and 1 cat lower than fcst. MVFR cigs likely to linger into Monday afternoon at KLAX. There is a 30 percent chc of a 6 kt east wind component 09-17Z Monday.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 2 hours.

MARINE
12/928 PM.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Higher confidence in the forecast for seas versus winds.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands and along the Central Coast, there is a 60-80 percent chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds from Point Sal south to San Nicolas Island, decreasing to 50-60 percent on Monday afternoon and evening. There is a 30-40 percent chance across the waters north of Point Sal Monday afternoon through Monday night.
Otherwise, SCA conditions are not expected through Thursday over the Outer Waters.

Inside the southern California bight, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels the period, except for a 30-50 percent chance of SCA winds tonight across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel, decreasing to 10-30 percent chance on Monday afternoon and evening.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Monday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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Sun -- 12:02 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:10 AM PDT     5.19 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:54 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:06 AM PDT     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:42 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:45 PM PDT     3.14 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:45 PM PDT     2.91 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:46 PM PDT     Sunset
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