Saturday, January23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bald Head Island, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:34PM Saturday January 23, 2021 9:27 AM EST (14:27 UTC) Moonrise 1:17PMMoonset 2:44AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 619 Am Est Sat Jan 23 2021
Today..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts to 25 kt outer portion. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of rain after midnight.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Rain likely.
Mon night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers through the day, then showers likely through the night.
AMZ200 619 Am Est Sat Jan 23 2021
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Gusty N winds this morning in wake of a cold front, will see easing trends this afternoon and tonight, while tending to ne. Expect light wind Sunday, as high pressure drifts overhead, then offshore late. A system passing to our north Monday into Tuesday will likely bring advisory seas offshore in excess of 6 feet. Improving marine conditions are expected Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bald Head Island, NC
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location: 33.83, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 231219 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 719 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. Building high pressure will bring a drying and cooling trend this weekend. A low pressure system will bring warm weather, clouds and occasional rain on Monday into Tuesday. Another system will impact the area Thursday into Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. Sunny and cool this weekend, refreshed by continental high pressure to the NW edging SE. It is not until late in the day Sunday, that the weakened high slips off the coast and brings return wind flow of a richer theta-e air mass, but late, such that the weekend should remain bright and mainly clear, with a few high clouds on Sunday sailing in aloft from the west.

Crisp and frosty Sunday morning first light, middle and upper 20s widespread inland, a little warmer at the coast, light NE winds. Maximum-T Sunday to reach into the 50s many locals, seasonable, near climatology. The breeziest period to be this morning through middle afternoon, as cold air advection slices into the region, but at least under the bright radiation of our star.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. High pressure shifts offshore Sunday night as a low pressure system deepens over the south-central US. Low temps in the low 40s Sunday night will occur early before temps begin to warm overnight. Warm front lifts north early Monday, increasing rain for the area via isentropic lift. As the day progresses, the bulk of rain will shift over NC where deepest moisture is forecasted to be. Current QPF forecast is 0.1-0.25" for most of the area, with 0.25-0.5" across northern counties. Increasing warm advection Monday will allow temps to reach upper 60s across parts of NE SC, while temps will be moderated to the north. Cloud cover, breezy conditions, and continued WAA Monday night is expected to keep lows in the upper 50s, near 60 degrees.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Rain will be ending early Tuesday as mid and upper level dry air move in. Low level clouds look to linger a bit before breaking up. Depending on timing of clearing skies, and with 850 temps reaching 12-14 deg C, temps Tuesday could approach mid 70s. SW winds will be a bit breezy on Tuesday. Cold front moves across late Tuesday, followed by brief ridging Tuesday night to early Wednesday. Moisture advection from the south Wednesday ahead of an approaching low will bring return of rain chances. Models continue to disagree on the progression of potent 500mb shortwave and surface low pressure system. A low looks to deepen near our area, either offshore or to the north, early Thursday, leading to increased pops and elevated winds. Recent trends move the low away from the area before cold air moves in, limiting any p-type concerns. That said, have included slight chance of frozen prec for Thursday night across coastal SE NC, where low pops linger and low temps are forecasted. Confidence is low however as large uncertainty remains. Decent CAA looks to move in behind the exiting low for Friday.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. VFR with primarily SKC. Gusty N-NNE winds this morning and early afternoon, up to 21 kt, easing after 22z to 6 kt or less. Light wind veering toward the NE by morning and clear skies tonight as high pressure migrates across the eastern CONUS.

Extended Outlook . VFR through Sunday. Worsening flight conditions expected Monday with rain, low clouds, and occasionally reduced visibility. Another system will impact the area with challenging flight conditions thursday and Friday.

MARINE. Through Sunday . Bumpy, gusty conditions much of today, as cold air rushes over the 0- 20 nm waters, but not strong enough to warrant an advisory. Small vessels should use elevated caution, due to 20 kt gusts becoming common, and steep-faced wind-waves today, of N-NNE origin, 3-4 feet every 5-6 seconds, accompanied by frigid water temperatures. Winds and wind-sea will decrease tonight and Sunday, offering friendlier marine conditions, as weakening high pressure drifts overhead, then offshore by late Sunday. The atmosphere is dry, so no rain, fog, or TSTMs are expected this period. Light winds to veer to E-SE near or after dusk Sunday. Sunday Night through Wednesday . Winds will veering to southerlies Sunday night as high pressure moves offshore and a warm front approaches from the south. Seas 1-2 ft Sunday night increase to 2-4 ft Monday as winds will be strengthening during the day, with S winds 10-15 kts Monday increasing to 15-20 kts out of the SW for Monday night through Tuesday. With frequent gusts of 25 kts possible, and seas increasing to 4-7 ft, a SCA is likely Monday night into Tuesday. A cold front is expected to move across the area late Tuesday, with west winds Tuesday evening becoming northerly by Wed morning, allowing seas to drop to 2-4 ft by Tuesday night. NE winds around 15 kts Wednesday with seas 2-3 ft, combination of NE wind chop and weakening S wind wave. While uncertainty remains regarding development of a low pressure system near the area Thursday, strong offshore winds are forecasted for Thursday, and a SCA or Gale Warning could be needed.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . ILM NEAR TERM . MJC SHORT TERM . VAO LONG TERM . VAO AVIATION . RGZ MARINE . MJC/VAO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 9 mi58 min 54°F2 ft
MBIN7 18 mi34 min NNE 8 G 13 44°F 1019.7 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi80 min NNE 16 G 21 43°F 54°F1019.5 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi51 min 54°F2 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 28 mi38 min N 18 G 21 62°F4 ft1019.3 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 28 mi80 min NNE 14 G 18 41°F 53°F1020.3 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi58 min N 9.9 G 12 42°F 51°F1020 hPa
WLON7 28 mi58 min 46°F 47°F1020.6 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 33 mi80 min 49°F 57°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC10 mi33 minN 710.00 miFair41°F31°F66%1021 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS3CalmSW3SW5SW4W3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmN4N7N5N6N6N7N9
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SW9W8W6W7W5W4W5W5W5W5NW4NW3CalmCalmNW3W3
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:44 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:08 AM EST     4.06 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:33 AM EST     0.76 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:16 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:29 PM EST     3.46 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:41 PM EST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.53.23.84.13.93.42.71.91.30.80.81.21.92.63.13.43.432.41.70.90.40.30.8

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Caswell, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
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Fort Caswell
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:45 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:29 AM EST     3.87 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:56 AM EST     0.71 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:17 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:50 PM EST     3.29 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:04 PM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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22.83.53.83.83.42.82.11.40.90.711.62.22.83.23.33.12.51.81.10.60.30.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.