Sunday, May31, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bald Head Island, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 8:19PM Sunday May 31, 2020 4:18 PM EDT (20:18 UTC) Moonrise 1:41PMMoonset 1:43AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 259 Pm Edt Sun May 31 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 pm edt this evening through Monday morning...
This afternoon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..S winds 5 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
AMZ200 259 Pm Edt Sun May 31 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A secondary surge of ne winds will occur tonight into Mon morning resulting in a brief period of small craft advisory conditions. High pressure centered over the ohio river valley tonight, will build across the region thru Monday. It's center will slide off the carolina coasts and offshore Mon night thru Tue. Sfc ridging from the offshore high will extend back west and onshore across georgia resulting with an extended period of sw-wsw flow thru the mid to late week period.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bald Head Island, NC
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location: 33.83, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 311902 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 302 PM EDT Sun May 31 2020

SYNOPSIS. Cooler and much drier weather filtering across the area tonight, and will remain in place through Tuesday as high pressure moves overhead. The high will move offshore Tuesday with warming temperatures Wednesday through Friday. Rain and thunderstorm chances return late week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. The mid-level trof axis will sweep across the Carolinas late this aftn thru early evening. A decent mid-level vort providing the push will pass just to our north but enough UVVS and avbl moisture to produce temporary clouds in the low and mid levels thru the mid evening hrs. The best forcing for low chance Pops for a shower or even a stray tstorm will remain across the coastal ILM SC Counties this aftn or early evening, somewhat separate from that vort. After the upper trof passage, a secondary NE surge overnight thru midday Mon. Went slightly hier for winds tonight as decent CAA occurs along with drier air with 50s dewpoints spreading across the FA, possibly a sub50 dewpoint by morning. Overall, dropped a degree or 2 from previous lows fcst. Dry conditions continue thru Monday and Mon night as sfc high pressure and NW flow aloft keep the FA free of pcpn and clouds. Could be flat topped Cu Mon especially closer to the resultant wind boundary, aka sea breeze. Lows Mon night, stayed at or a degree or 2 below guidance consensus with rad cooling conditions setting up at or just after sunset Mon.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. With surface high pressure offshore and a mid level ridge over the southeast, a warming trend will start on Tuesday, though high temps will still be below normal in the low 80s. Will see increase in mid clouds during the day as an upper level impulse moves across and a little breezy, but overall beautiful day. Dry weather continues into Wednesday, with lows Tuesday night in the mid 60s and highs Wednesday approaching 90. A surface trough sets up over central Carolinas Wednesday into Wednesday night, but with abundant dry air aloft not expecting any precipitation. A nocturnal low level jet looks to develop Tuesday and Wednesday night, with elevated surface winds persisting during overnight hours. Lows Wednesday night slightly above normal around 70 degrees.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Above normal temps continue late week into the weekend, along with return of rain chances. Slight pops forecasted for Thursday, with enough instability available may see some scattered storms along sea breeze in the afternoon. An upper level shortwave moves across the area late Thursday into Friday, advecting moisture across the area and increasing rain chances across coastal Carolinas. Given variability between model runs, have kept pops modest on Friday, but could see this increasing the next couple of days if strong signal remains. Increased moisture and associated instability remains on Saturday, keeping chance thunder in the forecast. A front approaches from the north Saturday into Sunday. High temps Thursday through Sunday around 90 degrees, with lows in the low 70s. Dewpoints in the low 70s Thursday to Sunday afternoons will create pretty humid conditions.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Cold front is well offshore, leaving a cooler and drier atmosphere. However, residual moisture and the seabreeze front has been able to produce a cloud deck with MVFR ceilings at 2000ft. This was especially prevalent along the NE SC coast, which may linger for the next few hours. Otherwise, VFR ceilings at 7-10 kft dominate the area. The seabreeze and pressure gradient has created gusts at all terminals, in the 18-22 knot range. Gusts and sustained winds should calm by sunset. Skies clear out during the overnight hours, and winds start to veer easterly towards the end of the 18Z TAF period.

Extended Outlook . Mainly VFR conditions are expected through Thursday.

MARINE. Through Monday Night: Raised a brief SCA for the secondary surge of NE winds later this evening thru mid-daytime Mon morning. This due to a re-tightened sfc pg and decent CAA with drier, ie. lower dewpoints, moving across 70s SST waters. Seas will already be heightened from the initial surge this morning into the aftn. Overall, looking at 15-25 kt speeds and 3 to 6 ft seas . with the 6 footers in the vicinity of Cape Fear and Romain respectively. Wind driven waves will dominate the seas spectrum with periods running 4 to 6 seconds. The center of the sfc high will drop across the Carolinas late Mon aftn and drift across and just off the Carolina Coasts by Tue daybreak.

Tuesday through Friday: SW winds 10 kts early Tuesday strengthens throughout the day to around 15 kts Tuesday night. SW winds 15-20 kts continues Wednesday to Thursday with high pressure offshore. Current forecast keeps gusts around 20 kts Wed and Thursday, below SCA criteria. Winds remain out of the SW Friday, weakening to 10-15 kts. Seas 2 ft Tuesday increase to 3-4 ft Tuesday night through Thursday, with 5 footers in the outer coastal waters Wednesday night. Seas decrease a bit during the day Thursday into Friday to around 3 ft. Persisting 1- 2 ft 9 sec ESE swell Tuesday will dissipate by Wednesday. Seas will be dominated by a SW wind wave Tuesday through Friday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. NC . Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254-256.



NEAR TERM . DCH SHORT TERM . VAO LONG TERM . VAO AVIATION . IGB MARINE . DCH/VAO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 9 mi49 min 74°F4 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi71 min ENE 12 G 16 74°F 74°F1017.5 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi39 min 75°F4 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 28 mi71 min ESE 12 G 14 76°F 76°F1017.6 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi49 min E 13 G 14 75°F 74°F1017.2 hPa
WLON7 28 mi49 min 83°F 75°F1017.4 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 29 mi29 min NE 19 G 25 75°F 78°F6 ft1016.4 hPa65°F
41119 29 mi59 min 76°F3 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 33 mi71 min NE 18 G 23 75°F 76°F1017.9 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC10 mi24 minNE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy80°F63°F59%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6SW5SW3SW6S3S3SW5SW4SW4W4W3W4NW4W4N4N5N5N10N10E5NE9
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:00 AM EDT     4.65 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:30 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:49 PM EDT     4.66 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:04 PM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.73.74.44.64.43.62.61.60.70.10.10.81.82.93.94.54.74.33.52.51.40.60.30.6

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Caswell, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
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Fort Caswell
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:21 AM EDT     4.43 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:53 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:10 PM EDT     4.44 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:27 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.23.244.44.33.82.91.80.90.300.41.32.43.44.14.44.33.62.71.70.80.30.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.