Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bald Head Island, NC

UPDATE
Area 12Z sounding data remains quite similar to last several days, with the exception of PWAT trending down to around 1.8".
The moderately unstable airmass will support scattered non- severe convection if a triggering mechanism can get things going. Low-level moisture is more abundant just N and NW of the area, which is where showers/tstms should be more numerous today. The main question for the day is the coverage of showers/tstms this afternoon. The current forecast ranges from 30% south to 50-60% north. Am concerned this may be a little high, but confidence is too low to make significant changes at this time.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Yesterday's dichotomy in model solutions with regard to thunderstorm coverage is being repeated again today. High res, convection- allowing models like the HRRR and NAM show virtually no thunderstorms across our area today. However synoptic-scale models like the GFS, ECMWF, Canadian, and their associated blends and MOS output suggest 50-70 percent coverage.

Just like yesterday our airmass will become uncapped and moderately to strongly unstable with SBCAPE approaching 3000 J/kg. Unlike yesterday curvature to the upper level flow becomes anticyclonic this afternoon and tonight as a 500 mb ridge strengthens off the FL East Coast. While we'll still have the seabreeze as a trigger, convective outflow boundaries from early morning storms across northern NC may remain too far north to have an impact this far south.

My plan, while blending with neighbors as much as possible, is to reduce forecast PoPs to 30-40 percent across most of the area for this afternoon into this evening. An exception is across parts of southeastern NC where better seabreeze convergence and greater distance from the building ridge to the south may allow storms to more easily develop. Forecast PoPs here are locally 50-60 percent.

Any lingering evening convection should dry up overnight with a light but humid southwest wind continuing.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Mid level ridging will be the main focus for the mid week forecast period. High temperatures will grow into the lower to middle 90s during this time. This when combined with dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s will lead to heat indices nearing advisory criteria. As usual the final call will be dependent on drier air off the surface mixing down. Convection is expected to be scattered Tuesday with less coverage Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Convection chances remain relatively low Thursday as mid level ridging dominates the pattern. A heat advisory may be needed in time mainly in the Pee Dee region during this time.
Heights slowly fall beginning Friday and along with the surface front pushing slowly through the area pops see a notable increase before falling off late in the period. Highs will generally be in the lower to middle 90s dependent on convection with lows in the lower to middle 70s.

AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
There is high confidence for VFR conditions to continue at the coastal airports KILM, KCRE, and KMYR through at least 16z today. A narrow stripe of low stratus with ceilings near 700 feet AGL extends across the KFLO and KLBT airports this morning. Like yesterday, this stratus should burn through around 13z with only a low to moderate potential for spotty MVFR ceilings lasting through 14-15z.

The next item of concern is daytime thunderstorm development.
Much like yesterday there is a disconnect between very wet synoptic models versus much drier high-res models. For KLBT I'll use a TEMPO group to indicate a moderate potential for thunderstorm impacts between 22-02z. Elsewhere I'll use PROB30 groups to indicate a somewhat lower potential for weather impacts during the afternoon and evening hours. In general the lowest potential for impacts today will be at KFLO and the highest potential at KLBT.

Extended Outlook...Scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will bring brief MVFR/IFR visibility each day through Thursday. There is also a low potential for MVFR/IFR ceilings affecting inland airports early each morning, mainly 08z-13z.

MARINE
Through Tonight...
Yesterday's weather pattern should largely continue today. Bermuda High Pressure well offshore will maintain a moderate southwesterly wind across the Carolinas. A stalled front near the NC/VA border should remain nearly stationary today but will begin to push north tonight as the Bermuda High spreads westward across Florida.

Aside from the persistent 15 knot southwest wind, mariners may have to content with pop-up thunderstorms developing along the seabreeze front this afternoon. Winds aloft will transport any storms eastward and across the seabreeze front, placing the beaches and nearshore waters potentially in their path. Additional clusters of thunderstorms tonight may affect mainly the NC waters through early Tuesday morning.

Tuesday through Saturday...
South to southwest winds of 10-15 knots will be in place most of the forecast period as Bermuda HIgh Pressure is in place.
There could be an increase Thursday to 15-20 knots as the inland trough gets better enhanced pinching the gradient. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.