Sunrise 6:42 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 8:06 PM   Moonset 5:56 AM

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FXUS64 KFWD 240841 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 341 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

New Long Term

SHORT TERM
/Issued 101 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024/ /Through Thursday/

Dew point temperatures in the lower-mid 60s have returned as anticipated in advance of our next developing storm system well west of the forecast area across the Intermountain West and Rockies. This will bring that humid feel to the environment through the mid week period unfortunately. The cap remained quite strong this past afternoon and evening. Outside of a brief strong storms in the Big Country, nothing had a chance to get going...especially east of US-281 where the base of a strong cap based around 815mb (per latest 00z FWD sounding) remains entrenched. The surface cold front that moved into southern Oklahoma on Tuesday has now retreated as a warm front back north across the Texas Panhandle and Northwest Oklahoma. This trend will continue through Thursday, as the upper ridge strengthens over North and Central Texas and the focus of surface and cyclogenesis and strong ascent remain well displaced north of the area across the Central High Plains. The nose of warm and moist advection will also be displaced to north of I-40 from northern Oklahoma into Nebraska with mainly warm, breezy, and humid weather across our area.

Each day the elevated mixed layer/cap aloft will be slightly more elevated and relatively weaker to allow for low thunderstorm probabilities across the Red River Valley into the far northeast counties. The upper ridge overhead and associated subsidence will likely cause these to be of the general variety, though a brief more robust cell with gusty winds and possibly small hail can't be completely ruled out.

Lows each morning will remain in the 60s with highs generally warming to between 75 and 80 degrees due to the depth of low level moisture underneath the cap deepening with less opportunity to mix out and allow strong insolation. Stratus and patchy light fog will be the norm each morning as southerly winds weaken to below 10 mph with mostly cloudy and breezy afternoons with speeds 10 to 15 kts with occasional gusts between 20-25 mph.

05/Marty

LONG TERM
/NEW/ /Thursday Night Onward/

Several days of active weather are in store this weekend. No single day will be a complete washout, but given the multiple rounds of storms expected, make sure to plan your weekend activities accordingly.

A mostly precipitation free Thursday night will give way to increasing rain chances come Friday morning. A shortwave will be emerging out of the Rockies, spreading rapid height falls across North and Central Texas. An attendant cold front will move east through the night, knocking on North/Central Texas' door step come sunrise. Although the bulk of the ascent is expected to remain well north of our region, an open warm sector coupled with the incoming cold front will likely lead to the development of thunderstorms. With 1500+ J/kg of CAPE in place and effective shear of 40+ knots, a few strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out by mid morning. Through the afternoon, instability is expected to gradually build as steeper mid-level lapse rates move into our region. This should lead to additional thunderstorm development out ahead of the slow-moving front. The severe weather threat will continue through the afternoon as large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two will be possible.

As the shortwave moves away from the region, precipitation chances will significantly decrease Friday night. Southerly winds will help push the front west/northwest overnight. Its new placement will dictate where storms fire off Saturday with the arrival of the next shortwave. Guidance continues to keep much of North and Central Texas in the warm sector with a few warm air advection showers and storms by mid-morning. The shortwave will once again send a weak front eastward, catching up to the dryline and likely leading to another round of vigorous convection. With mid-level lapse rates of 8 degC/Km and 1500+ J/Kg of instability, strong to severe storms will once again be possible. Threats will be large hail, damaging winds. The severe weather threat will persist into Saturday night as storms shift eastward.

The front will stall on Sunday, providing yet additional chances for showers and storms across our region. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will once again be possible mainly east of I-35 on Sunday, where sufficient instability and shear will be present.
The storm chances will linger through Monday before the front retreats back to the northwest.

Weak ridging aloft will move across the region on Tuesday, leading to a dry day across the region. The precipitation-free conditions will be short-lived as another system approaches the area by Wednesday with additional showers and storms in the forecast.

Hernandez

AVIATION
/Issued 101 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024/ /06Z TAFs/

All airports through the D10 airspace are forecast to drop into low MVFR by 09z, with Waco Regional Airport already seeing high MVFR cigs AoA 2 kft already. The challenge arises with whether cigs temporarily go IFR between 13z-17z like the LAMP/GLAMP/and CONSSHORT guidances advertise, or if these conditions are more brief (or occur at all) like the RAP/HRRR.

With these uncertainties and low confidence on evolution of cigs in mind, I've split the difference by only advertising a 2-hr TEMPO group of IFR with MVFR vsbys between 12z-15z. I'll adjust trends as guidance comes more in line with actual evolution of cigs later this morning.

S/SE winds will prevail around 10 kts or less, though a few gusts to between 15-20 kts will be possible by this afternoon.

05/Marty


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 68 79 68 83 / 10 10 5 50 80 Waco 80 68 80 69 78 / 10 0 0 20 70 Paris 76 64 79 68 76 / 40 30 20 20 90 Denton 78 67 78 67 83 / 20 20 10 60 70 McKinney 77 68 78 68 80 / 20 20 10 40 80 Dallas 79 68 79 69 82 / 10 10 5 40 80 Terrell 78 66 79 68 78 / 10 10 5 20 80 Corsicana 80 68 80 70 80 / 5 0 0 10 80 Temple 80 67 80 68 80 / 10 0 0 10 60 Mineral Wells 79 66 81 66 86 / 5 20 5 70 40

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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