Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Preston, TX
May 7, 2024 3:29 AM CDT (08:29 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:29 AM Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 5:00 AM Moonset 7:09 PM |
Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS64 KFWD 070816 AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 316 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
New Long Term
SHORT TERM
/Issued 1252 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024/ /Today through Wednesday Afternoon/
A relatively quiet day has come to an end with little to no showers and storms to be had across the region. While the evening 00Z FWD sounding showed a very unstable atmosphere, storm development was quite lacking as the necessary source of lift remained well to our north. Up in Oklahoma, discrete storms and clusters continue to zipper south along the dryline, and are progged to move east through the rest of the overnight hours. CAM guidance continues to confine storm chances to just north of the Red River, but we cannot rule out the low possibility that a storm may develop a bit more south in our northern tier of counties through this morning.
Elsewhere will continue to remain dry.
Otherwise, a cold front will continue its southward trek as a shortwave disturbance swings around the periphery of the main upper low. This frontal passage will ultimately result in a temporary northwest wind shift through the first half of this afternoon.
The front will eventually stall across the region as its upper level support ejects to the northeast. Even in the presence of the stalled front, afternoon temperatures region-wide will be able to climb into the 80s as little cold air advection is expected post- front. Later towards early evening, deepening low surface pressure to our northwest will shift winds back to the south and urge the front northward as a warm front in response. This will place all of North and Central Texas back into the warm sector with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s expected once again going into midweek. Guidance is continuing to pick up on the potential for isolated storms in Central Texas this evening, but has backed off some in the most current runs. The inhibition to storm development today is a lack of appreciable lift overhead, and so have not included mentionable precipitation chances this afternoon and evening.
Our next chance at severe weather will be on Wednesday as a sharpening dryline just to our west will become a focus for storm initiation as another shortwave moves across the Central Plains and spreads forcing for ascent over the region. The dryline should gradually move east over the course of the afternoon, eventually ending up closer to I-35 later in the day. Scattered storms are expected along and ahead of this boundary through the end of the short term period. Forecast soundings show steepening lapse rates and abundant instability and deep layer shear, indicative of strong to severe storms primarily capable of large to very large hail and damaging winds.
Prater
LONG TERM
/NEW/ /Wednesday Night Onward/
A cold front will continue to sag south through the forecast area Wednesday night into Thursday as a positive tilt trough drops southeast from the Plains to the Mississippi Valley. Precipitation will come to an end Wednesday night with the loss of instability and the exit of the trough. Convection may reignite Thursday afternoon across Central and East Texas in the vicinity of the front, however, as a trailing disturbance approaches. Thursday's storms (some of which will be severe based on the high levels of CAPE and effective shear in place) will exit to the south and east Thursday night as the front receives a stronger southward push and heads for South Texas and the northwest Gulf.
This will set the stage for a nice start to the weekend as cooler and drier air enters with the cold front. Friday and Saturday highs in the 70s will be generally 5 to 10 degrees below normal, while nighttime lows from the mid 50s to lower 60s will be 3 to 5 degrees below normal.
Return flow will begin on Sunday as the post-frontal surface ridge heads for the Central Gulf Coast. Clouds will be on the increase during the day Sunday as a cut-off low over the Desert Southwest advances east. Moisture return will be initially minimal, but scattered showers should become possible by Sunday evening across our western and southern counties as both moisture and lift gradually increase. Better rain chances will occur Monday and Monday night as the upper low crosses the Texas Panhandle, with rain and storm chances continuing through next Tuesday as the low transitions to an open trough while moving east through the Plains.
Weak flow aloft and modest instability should mitigate the potential for severe weather Sunday and Monday. Strengthening shear and better instability will increase the severe potential for next Tuesday, though it is a bit too soon to narrow down all severe weather parameters. Either way, rain and storm chances will continue through the middle of next week as a second upper trough passes through the region. A mid level ridge will then develop overhead late next week, possibly bringing another lull in rain chances.
30
AVIATION
/Issued 1252 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024/ /06Z TAFs/
Concerns: MVFR stratus returns early this morning and again overnight into tomorrow morning; FROPA and northerly wind shift this morning.
Stratus is streaming up into southern Central Texas and will continue northward over the rest of the overnight hours, eventually blanketing all of the TAF sites by daybreak. Unlike the previous few days, the stratus will not stick around as an cold front will move through the region and scour out low level clouds. Expect FROPA and its accompanying wind shift at D10 around 14Z and at ACT around 15Z. North to northwest winds will prevail at the TAF sites through the mid afternoon, before the front is pushed back northward and winds return to the south. Southerly winds will then remain through the rest of the period. MVFR stratus will stream northward late tomorrow night into Wednesday morning, and will be covered in full in future TAF issuances.
Prater
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 88 73 89 68 79 / 0 5 20 20 20 Waco 86 71 87 70 82 / 5 10 20 10 20 Paris 86 70 87 64 80 / 5 10 30 30 20 Denton 85 69 89 64 79 / 0 0 10 10 20 McKinney 86 70 87 66 79 / 0 5 20 20 20 Dallas 89 73 90 68 80 / 0 5 20 20 20 Terrell 87 70 87 67 80 / 5 10 20 20 30 Corsicana 89 73 89 70 84 / 0 10 20 10 30 Temple 87 70 89 69 83 / 5 10 10 5 30 Mineral Wells 87 69 90 63 78 / 0 0 5 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 316 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
New Long Term
SHORT TERM
/Issued 1252 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024/ /Today through Wednesday Afternoon/
A relatively quiet day has come to an end with little to no showers and storms to be had across the region. While the evening 00Z FWD sounding showed a very unstable atmosphere, storm development was quite lacking as the necessary source of lift remained well to our north. Up in Oklahoma, discrete storms and clusters continue to zipper south along the dryline, and are progged to move east through the rest of the overnight hours. CAM guidance continues to confine storm chances to just north of the Red River, but we cannot rule out the low possibility that a storm may develop a bit more south in our northern tier of counties through this morning.
Elsewhere will continue to remain dry.
Otherwise, a cold front will continue its southward trek as a shortwave disturbance swings around the periphery of the main upper low. This frontal passage will ultimately result in a temporary northwest wind shift through the first half of this afternoon.
The front will eventually stall across the region as its upper level support ejects to the northeast. Even in the presence of the stalled front, afternoon temperatures region-wide will be able to climb into the 80s as little cold air advection is expected post- front. Later towards early evening, deepening low surface pressure to our northwest will shift winds back to the south and urge the front northward as a warm front in response. This will place all of North and Central Texas back into the warm sector with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s expected once again going into midweek. Guidance is continuing to pick up on the potential for isolated storms in Central Texas this evening, but has backed off some in the most current runs. The inhibition to storm development today is a lack of appreciable lift overhead, and so have not included mentionable precipitation chances this afternoon and evening.
Our next chance at severe weather will be on Wednesday as a sharpening dryline just to our west will become a focus for storm initiation as another shortwave moves across the Central Plains and spreads forcing for ascent over the region. The dryline should gradually move east over the course of the afternoon, eventually ending up closer to I-35 later in the day. Scattered storms are expected along and ahead of this boundary through the end of the short term period. Forecast soundings show steepening lapse rates and abundant instability and deep layer shear, indicative of strong to severe storms primarily capable of large to very large hail and damaging winds.
Prater
LONG TERM
/NEW/ /Wednesday Night Onward/
A cold front will continue to sag south through the forecast area Wednesday night into Thursday as a positive tilt trough drops southeast from the Plains to the Mississippi Valley. Precipitation will come to an end Wednesday night with the loss of instability and the exit of the trough. Convection may reignite Thursday afternoon across Central and East Texas in the vicinity of the front, however, as a trailing disturbance approaches. Thursday's storms (some of which will be severe based on the high levels of CAPE and effective shear in place) will exit to the south and east Thursday night as the front receives a stronger southward push and heads for South Texas and the northwest Gulf.
This will set the stage for a nice start to the weekend as cooler and drier air enters with the cold front. Friday and Saturday highs in the 70s will be generally 5 to 10 degrees below normal, while nighttime lows from the mid 50s to lower 60s will be 3 to 5 degrees below normal.
Return flow will begin on Sunday as the post-frontal surface ridge heads for the Central Gulf Coast. Clouds will be on the increase during the day Sunday as a cut-off low over the Desert Southwest advances east. Moisture return will be initially minimal, but scattered showers should become possible by Sunday evening across our western and southern counties as both moisture and lift gradually increase. Better rain chances will occur Monday and Monday night as the upper low crosses the Texas Panhandle, with rain and storm chances continuing through next Tuesday as the low transitions to an open trough while moving east through the Plains.
Weak flow aloft and modest instability should mitigate the potential for severe weather Sunday and Monday. Strengthening shear and better instability will increase the severe potential for next Tuesday, though it is a bit too soon to narrow down all severe weather parameters. Either way, rain and storm chances will continue through the middle of next week as a second upper trough passes through the region. A mid level ridge will then develop overhead late next week, possibly bringing another lull in rain chances.
30
AVIATION
/Issued 1252 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024/ /06Z TAFs/
Concerns: MVFR stratus returns early this morning and again overnight into tomorrow morning; FROPA and northerly wind shift this morning.
Stratus is streaming up into southern Central Texas and will continue northward over the rest of the overnight hours, eventually blanketing all of the TAF sites by daybreak. Unlike the previous few days, the stratus will not stick around as an cold front will move through the region and scour out low level clouds. Expect FROPA and its accompanying wind shift at D10 around 14Z and at ACT around 15Z. North to northwest winds will prevail at the TAF sites through the mid afternoon, before the front is pushed back northward and winds return to the south. Southerly winds will then remain through the rest of the period. MVFR stratus will stream northward late tomorrow night into Wednesday morning, and will be covered in full in future TAF issuances.
Prater
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 88 73 89 68 79 / 0 5 20 20 20 Waco 86 71 87 70 82 / 5 10 20 10 20 Paris 86 70 87 64 80 / 5 10 30 30 20 Denton 85 69 89 64 79 / 0 0 10 10 20 McKinney 86 70 87 66 79 / 0 5 20 20 20 Dallas 89 73 90 68 80 / 0 5 20 20 20 Terrell 87 70 87 67 80 / 5 10 20 20 30 Corsicana 89 73 89 70 84 / 0 10 20 10 30 Temple 87 70 89 69 83 / 5 10 10 5 30 Mineral Wells 87 69 90 63 78 / 0 0 5 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KGYI NORTH TEXAS RGNL/PERRIN FIELD,TX | 9 sm | 34 min | SSW 18G22 | 10 sm | Clear | 73°F | 70°F | 89% | 29.62 | |
| KDUA DURANT RGNL EAKER FIELD,OK | 14 sm | 34 min | S 11G15 | 10 sm | Overcast | 75°F | 68°F | 78% | 29.62 |
Dallas/Fort Worth, TX,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE