Thursday, April22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Preston, TX

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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 8:04PM Thursday April 22, 2021 9:57 AM CDT (14:57 UTC) Moonrise 2:13PMMoonset 3:18AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Preston, TX
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location: 33.84, -96.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 221039 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 539 AM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021

. New Short Term, Aviation .

SHORT TERM. /NEW/ Update: The NAM is presently the only model with a decent handle on the wide swath of cloud cover encompassing much of Texas and Oklahoma this morning. As a result, have trended the short term forecast heavily towards NAM/MET guidance which includes lowering today's highs by about 5 or more degrees across the board with predominantly overcast skies expected. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding precipitation potential today/tonight. Would not be surprised to see some areas get into a bit of drizzle or light rain especially in Central Texas by late afternoon or evening, but farther north the near-surface dewpoint depressions may be too great for precip to occur. More widespread low PoPs will be carried later this evening and overnight when the much more significant moisture arrives with the warm front, along with areas of fog and drizzle.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion: /Through Tonight/

It'll be a mostly cloudy and fairly cool day as we await our next storm system set to affect the region tomorrow. Despite a bit of sunshine around during the morning, strengthening low-level southerly flow associated with a lead Central Plains shortwave will begin to draw significant 850-700mb moisture into the area. This should result in most of the CWA becoming overcast by late morning or early afternoon.

We could begin to see a bit of light rain attempt to develop later in the afternoon or early this evening. In North Texas, this would be due to top-down saturation occurring closer in proximity to the aforementioned shortwave which could result in some high- based showers/sprinkles. In Central Texas, developing rain chances would be due to strengthening warm/moist advection and isentropic ascent far north of a surface warm font which will begin lifting northward from the Gulf Coast. We'll carry some low PoPs in each area, but chances for measurable rainfall are fairly low. Some light rain/sprinkles would be the only result from either precipitation-generating mechanism.

The warm front will begin a fast northward progression later in the evening and overnight, with a moist warm sector lifting northward through the area by Friday morning. This should lead to an expansion of fog (perhaps some dense) and widespread low stratus. Temperatures will remain nearly steady or even warm a few degrees overnight as this boundary advects through the forecast area. Additional warm/moist advection may contribute to an increase in rain shower activity, especially across Central and East Texas, so modest PoPs have been maintained in these areas heading into Friday morning.

-Stalley

LONG TERM. /Issued 302 AM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021/ /Friday and Beyond/

Moisture and instability will be on the increase at the start of the period as a warm front lifts north through the region early Friday. The leading/northern edge of 60+ degree dewpoints will be located across Central Texas around daybreak, but should extend well north of the Red River by noon. This will place just about all of North and Central Texas within the warm sector as convection begins to light up ahead of an approaching shortwave trough.

Any thunderstorms which develop in the morning are expected to remain isolated in nature, but coverage should increase rapidly around or shortly after midday as surface heating and the approaching disturbance quickly erode convective inhibition. Recent guidance has been keying on a zone of moisture convergence south of the warm front and east of the dryline, or somewhere near the I-35 corridor, where a swath of 70 degree surface dewpoints is forecast. This would be a favorable area for convective initiation by early afternoon.

Convective mode may begin as discrete supercells, which would pose a large hail threat early to mid afternoon. With the expectation of such rapid development, however, quick upscale growth will be possible, and is indicated by a few of the 00Z convection-allowing models. Any rotating segments would still pose a hail threat as storms move east, but given forecast amounts of strong low level storm-relative helicity (on the order of 200-300 m**2/s**2 in the 0 to 1 km layer) a few tornadoes are also a good possibility. This threat might be mitigated, however, if convective mode turns into a messy line and works against the temporal maintenance of rotating updrafts. In either case, it appears that the tornado risk increases the farther east you go based on forecast parameters. That said, conditions appear favorable area-wide for at least a low-end threat based on the expectation of widespread low level instability and shear. A more common occurrence could be localized flash flooding, mainly for the areas east of I-35. Storms will be capable of producing heavy rain and any training convection could produce a quick couple of inches.

As afternoon storms begin to exit to the east, focus may need to shift back to the west and northwest where additional storms remain possible as the cold front begins to overtake the dryline. Have kept POPs going in the evening, mainly along the Red River where some guidance is hinting at the development of an MCS extending from our northern counties through Oklahoma and Arkansas. These storms would pose mainly a damaging wind concern as they push east-southeast, eventually exiting the area during the overnight hours.

At this point, the main overall message is that several possibilities still exist with regard to convective mode and how everything plays out, so folks just need to be aware of the possibility of severe storms and keep updated with the latest information.

Drier and cooler air will initially enter Saturday morning behind the front, but a quick warm-up will ensue over the weekend as an upper ridge develops overhead. Highs by Sunday will be in the 80s, with a few readings near 90 across the western zones both Sunday and Monday.

Another potent trough is progged to sweep through the Plains during he early to middle part of next week. This looks like another good spring set-up for additional strong to severe thunderstorms from Texas through the Southern Plains, with the timing being somewhere during the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame. We should be able to narrow down more details regarding the timing, severe weather threats, etc. over the next several days, especially once we have gotten through the Friday system. It initially looked like April was going to give us a break from severe storms, but it has returned to its normal self it appears for the final week of the month.

30

AVIATION. /NEW/ /12z TAFs/

VFR ceilings around 4-7 kft will persist through most of today at all airports. Light east winds will continue to veer to the southeast while increasing to 10-15 kts by this afternoon. A fairly rapid deterioration of flying conditions is then expected this evening and tonight as a swath of deep low-level moisture advects northward with a surface warm front. This will eventually result in IFR/LIFR conditions at all TAF sites heading into Friday morning. Timing of these worsening conditions still remains uncertain, and could be adjusted several hours in either direction depending on trends in guidance today. This 12z issuance will rely heavily on NAM guidance for cig trends as it is the only model with a good handle on current moisture across most of the region. Precipitation chances remain uncertain at the TAF sites through the period, but wouldn't be surprised if some drizzle moved into Waco by late this evening, with greater chances for light rain spreading into the DFW area TAF sites closer to daybreak Friday.

-Stalley

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Dallas-Ft. Worth 67 60 76 57 77 / 10 20 80 30 0 Waco 69 61 76 56 78 / 10 20 90 30 0 Paris 65 56 70 57 73 / 0 20 90 60 0 Denton 65 56 73 54 75 / 20 20 80 30 0 McKinney 66 57 73 56 74 / 10 20 90 50 0 Dallas 69 61 76 59 78 / 10 30 80 30 0 Terrell 67 59 75 57 75 / 5 20 90 50 0 Corsicana 69 61 76 57 77 / 5 20 90 40 0 Temple 69 61 76 56 79 / 20 30 90 30 0 Mineral Wells 64 57 77 54 77 / 10 10 60 5 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sherman/Denison, Grayson County Airport, TX8 mi68 minE 610.00 miOvercast50°F41°F71%1023.7 hPa
Durant, Eaker Field Airport, OK14 mi63 minESE 610.00 miOvercast52°F41°F67%1023.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGYI

Wind History from GYI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNE7
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N4N7N5NE7N6N6CalmSE3SE3CalmSE3NE3CalmE3E3E4E4NE4E6E6E6
1 day agoN17
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2 days agoS10S8SW12S9S8S9SW9S11
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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