Saturday, August17, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Preston, TX

Version 3.4
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at Allen

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 8:12PM Saturday August 17, 2019 1:05 PM CDT (18:05 UTC) Moonrise 8:44PMMoonset 7:36AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Preston, TX
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location: 33.84, -96.62     debug

Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 171752 aab
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service fort worth tx
1252 pm cdt Sat aug 17 2019

18z tafs
no concerns.VFR with south flow.

Broad ridging aloft will prevail, generally south of our latitude,
connecting the hawaiian and bermuda highs. The mid-latitude
westerlies north of this feature will keep low-level troughing
anchored in the lee of the rockies, maintaining an unseasonably
potent conveyor from the tropical waters of the southwestern gulf
into the central plains. These south winds will be generally 10 to
15 knots, but occasionally higher gusts will occur.

Another ripple embedded in the westerlies is responsible for the
ongoing convection within oklahoma again today. This impulse has
a more southerly trajectory to its predecessor, and the tail end
of the elevated activity will dip south of the red river in
northwest texas. Subsidence will soon bring this to end, but
surface-based storms are expected to develop later this afternoon
along a west texas dryline, the southern extent of the lee trough
axis. Although some of these cells may disrupt west departures and
northwest arrivals late in the day, the activity should remain
well beyond the bowie cornerpost, and no impacts are anticipated
with the dfw tracon.

A renewed round of sea breeze showers storms should remain
confined to southeast texas again this afternoon evening, but
the moist conveyor aiding in this convective initiation could
allow some of the activity to move develop deeper into east texas.

This moisture flux will also encourage a more vigorous stratus
intrusion Sunday morning. The veered flow within the cloud-bearing
layer will keep the bulk of the ceilings south and east of waco,
but a tempo for MVFR ceilings fl012-020 may be needed with
subsequent TAF packages, primarily in the 10-14z (5-9am cdt) time


Short term issued 308 am cdt Sat aug 17 2019
through tonight
rather impressive zonal mid-level flow (at least by august
standards) is maintaining a tight low-level pressure gradient
across the southern plains currently, with recent VWP data
suggesting 925mb flow from the south around 30-35 kt. In turn,
gulf moisture continues to stream north across our area. Thus,
while afternoon mixing should be relatively deep, our low-level
moisture should be of sufficient depth to maintain surface dew
points in the 60s to lower 70s in most spots around peak heating.

With temperatures rising into the upper 90s to lower 100s, this
moisture profile should yield heat indices around 105-108 in many
locations. Therefore, have opted to issue a heat advisory for
today (as well as tomorrow -- see the long-term discussion for
more details).

Besides the heat, there's a slim chance for a shower or two across
east texas this afternoon, where the deepest moisture will
reside. However, given a lack of any clear forcing for ascent and
persistent dry air in the mid levels, refrained from introducing
any convection to the forecast at this time.


Long term issued 308 am cdt Sat aug 17 2019
Sunday through next weekend
a mid upper ridge will strengthen while expanding north into the
plains on Sunday, then remain dominant across the central part of
the CONUS through the first part of next week. Triple digit high
temperatures will be common at least through Monday. In addition,
persistent southerly winds will continue to bring gulf moisture
northward across the region, preventing any significant diurnal
drop in the dewpoint temperature. The resulting heat indices will
be widespread in the 105 to 110 range each afternoon, and barring
any unforeseen circumstances the heat advisory will likely need
to be extended into Monday at some point this weekend.

A brief opportunity for relief will occur Tuesday as a subtle
weakness develops over the southern edge of the ridge. A strong
seabreeze is progged to push inland Tuesday afternoon, and slight
chance pops have hence been added across the southeastern-most
row of counties. The rest of the region will remain hot and
rain-free, though perhaps a couple of degrees cooler than
Sunday Monday.

The latest guidance continues to indicate a break-down of the
ridging over the plains during the second half of next week as
the ridge center shifts westward into the rockies. A shortwave
embedded in the subsequent northwest flow aloft should kick off a
round of convection north of the region Wednesday afternoon.

Showers and storms will likely move southeast, some of which may
cross the red river Wednesday evening. Low-end pops have hence
been included for areas north of the i-20 corridor Wednesday
night, then to areas along and east of i-35 on Thursday as the
disturbance continues to move southeast.

A second shortwave will generate another round of showers and
storms by Friday, but at this time it looks like the disturbance
and associated convection will remain north of the region.

Near-normal temperatures and little to no rain chances will
therefore be the official forecast as we enter next weekend.


Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 101 80 101 81 101 5 0 0 0 0
waco 101 79 102 79 101 5 0 0 0 0
paris 97 77 96 77 97 5 5 0 10 5
denton 100 79 101 80 101 5 0 0 5 0
mckinney 99 78 100 79 100 5 0 0 5 0
dallas 100 81 101 81 101 5 0 0 0 0
terrell 99 78 102 79 101 10 0 0 0 0
corsicana 99 78 99 78 98 10 0 0 0 0
temple 100 78 101 77 99 5 0 0 0 0
mineral wells 102 78 102 77 101 5 0 0 0 0

Fwd watches warnings advisories
Heat advisory until 7 pm cdt Sunday for txz091>095-100>107-

25 91

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sherman/Denison, Grayson County Airport, TX8 mi75 minS 10 G 1610.00 miFair93°F73°F53%1012.5 hPa
Durant, Eaker Field Airport, OK14 mi69 minS 1110.00 miFair93°F71°F50%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGYI

Wind History from GYI (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE8SE8SE11SE11
2 days ago--CalmNE17

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.