Sunday, August18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Desert Center, CA

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 7:29PM Sunday August 18, 2019 3:09 PM PDT (22:09 UTC) Moonrise 9:31PMMoonset 8:49AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Desert Center, CA
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location: 33.86, -115.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 182053
afdpsr
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
153 pm mst Sun aug 18 2019

Synopsis
Temperatures will remain several degrees above normal and
moisture and thunderstorm activity will be very limited through
the middle of next week. Daily record high temperatures and
another excessive heat episode is expected for Tuesday and
Wednesday across most of southern arizona and southeast
california. Moisture should return by Thursday to begin a gradual
cooling trend and bring back at least a slight chance of
thunderstorms back into the forecast for south central arizona for
the second half of this week, with the best chances on Friday.

Discussion
Our forecast area is currently between strong high pressure over
southern texas and weak troughing over the east pacific, resulting
in southwesterly flow aloft. A decent amount of mainly mid- and upper-
level moisture exists just south of the arizona new mexico
border. This is associated with a weak wave that is slowly pushing
north into the southeastern portion of arizona from mexico. 500
mb heights will remain in the 589-591 dm range and 850 mb
temperatures will range from 25 degrees c in southeast california
to 30 degrees c in gila county. Temperatures in southwest arizona
and southeast california will be very similar to yesterday,
however, a little more cloud cover today over south-central
arizona will keep temperatures a couple degrees cooler than what
was observed yesterday. Convection will once again be suppressed
today since warmest temperatures a loft will exist over the more
favorable high terrain areas east of phoenix and there is limited
lower level moisture with pw values around 0.4 to 0.7 inches. The
best moisture exists across far southeastern arizona today and
with the aforementioned wave being in the vicinity, this area has
the best chances for convection this afternoon and early evening.

Latest href shows convection continuing to develop over northern
sonora this afternoon and slipping into pima, santa cruz, and
cochise counties but remaining out of our forecast area. Thus,
it'll be another quiet day in our CWA with temperatures rising
into the 105-110 degree range in the lower deserts.

Temperatures will begin to increase tomorrow, but we still expect
to remain just below excessive heat thresholds at or below 110
degrees as the height increases aloft will not quite translate to
warmer boundary layer temperatures. However, the mid-to-upper-
level anticyclone will broaden and become more zonally-oriented
with a center near the four corners for Tuesday into Wednesday as
h500 heights increase to around 594 dm under mostly clear skies.

Forecast h850 temperatures still exceed 31 deg c on Tuesday and 32
deg c on Wednesday, about a degree warmer than last week's
excessive heat episode. Thus, we still expect another excessive
heat episode with daily records likely being set on Wednesday and
possibly on Tuesday, so we have maintained the excessive heat
warning for Tuesday and Wednesday with no changes with this
forecast package. There is still a chance that this warning will
need to be extended into Thursday for some portions of southeast
california, particularly northeastern riverside county and the
imperial valley. However, confidence is not quite high enough yet
to extend this warning as a gulf surge expected overnight
Wednesday into Thursday will cause temperatures to decrease near
or just below excessive heat thresholds.

The aforementioned moisture surge should end our prolonged break
in monsoonal activity with repeated bouts of excessive heat. A
fast-moving easterly tropical wave currently moving into the
caribbean sea should cross the yucatan peninsula on Monday night
into Tuesday and progress into central america and mexico by
Wednesday. This will cause a significant amount of convection on
both sides of the gulf of california over the sierra madre and
baja california that should trigger a gulf surge Wednesday into
Thursday. Simultaneously, a front moving into the central plains
along with thunderstorms on the lee side of the rockies should
help bring in moisture from the northeast as the center of the
anticyclone slides westward. Both of these features should at
least end the excessive heat, but thunderstorms will be limited
to eastern and southeast arizona including gila and possibly pinal
county for Wednesday and Thursday as midlevel stability left
behind by the ridge aloft will still be in place. Thunderstorm
chances for the lower deserts including phoenix will be better on
Friday as pwat values increase into the 1.1-1.5 inch range with
northeast steering flow on the eastern side of the ridge bringing
outflow boundaries off the higher terrain into the lower deserts.

If Friday is fairly active, Saturday should be a less active day
with cooler than normal temperatures. Otherwise, the setup for
Saturday would be similar to Friday with thunderstorms propagating
off the higher terrain, albeit with weaker shear.

Much of what happens beyond Saturday will depend on whether or
not a tropical cyclone develops late next week once the
aforementioned easterly wave moves into the east pacific. If it
does develop, there is significant uncertainty on where it will
ultimately track even though both the operational ecwmf and gfs
track it northwestward parallel to baja california. If this
occurs, significant southerly moisture surges at the surface and
moisture aloft at the fringes of the tropical system would result
in very high pwat values and a prolonged wet period next week for
the lower deserts of southeast california and possibly arizona. If
not, low grade monsoonal activity primarily confined to higher
terrain locations would be most likely.

Aviation Updated at 1818 utc.

South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, ksdl, and kdvt:
light and variable winds in central phoenix likely through early
afternoon, with a slight southerly component, before shifting
southwesterly. Speeds should remain AOB 8 kts with only a few
isolated gusts to 12 kts possible in the afternoon. A weak gulf
surge sea breeze from the SW around 5-6z, may keep winds from
shifting back easterly until early Monday, primarily at kphx.

Aside from sct-bkn cirrus through this evening, few clouds around
13-14 kft may push in from the south Monday morning.

Southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
dry southwest flow aloft to keep skies generally clear next 24
hours. Winds to favor the south to southwest at kblh next 24
hours with speeds mostly 14 kts or lower and a few gusts to 20 kts
this afternoon. Winds to favor the south-southeast today at kipl,
and then turn more to the southwest during the evening hours,
with speeds generally less than 12kt. Overall no aviation concerns
for at least the next 24 hours.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Wednesday through Sunday:
excessive heat is expected on Wednesday as high temperatures
across the lower deserts increase into the 112 to 116 degree range
with isolated spots exceeding 116 degrees in southeast california
and southwest arizona. Moisture will return by Thursday to begin a
gradual cooling trend and bring back a slight chance of
thunderstorms into the forecast for the higher terrain of gila
county and perhaps the lower deserts including the phoenix metro
on Friday and Saturday. The current forecast shows a decrease in
storm activity on Sunday. Minimum relative humidity values will
be below 10 percent on Wednesday before an upward trend commences
Thursday through the weekend to keep all areas in the 15 to 25
percent range. Winds will follow typical diurnal patterns with
afternoon and early evening gustiness.

Climate
Record high temperatures
date phoenix yuma
---- ------- ----
aug 18 112 in 2011 116 in 1960
aug 19 113 in 1986 116 in 1915
aug 20 112 in 1986 114 in 1982
aug 21 110 in 2007 115 in 1969
aug 22 113 in 2011 115 in 1969
aug 23 114 in 2011 115 in 2011

Spotter information statement
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... Excessive heat warning from 11 am Tuesday to 8 pm mst Wednesday
for azz530>546-548>556-559>562.

Ca... Excessive heat warning from 11 am Tuesday to 8 pm pdt Wednesday
for caz561>570.

Excessive heat warning from 11 am to 8 pm pdt Wednesday for
caz560.

Discussion... Hernandez hopper
aviation... Benedict cb
fire weather... Hernandez hopper
climate... Rogers kuhlman mo


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Palm Springs, Jacqueline Cochran Regional Airport, CA27 mi77 minSSE 810.00 miFair105°F36°F9%1007.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTRM

Wind History from TRM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SE6SE5CalmN10N14
G19
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NW8NW8NW11NW11NW8--SE3CalmCalm43E7SE8SE8S7
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNW16
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N17N15NW9NW10NW11NW8NW8SW4SE3S4E33Calm3CalmE7Calm3
2 days ago--------------------------------------SE9SE10SE7SE5S4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Diego, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.