Marine Weather and Tides
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 5:30AM||Sunset 7:58PM||Monday June 14, 2021 9:41 PM PDT (04:41 UTC)||Moonrise 9:10AM||Moonset 11:35PM||Illumination 26%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Desert Center, CAHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KPSR 150026 AFDPSR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 526 PM MST Mon Jun 14 2021
UPDATE. Updated Aviation discussion.
SYNOPSIS. Extreme heat will continue throughout the week as high temperatures generally remain 10 to 15 degrees above average and flirting with daily records. Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect this week across all areas of southern Arizona and southeast California. Even higher elevation areas will experience uncommon, and potentially dangerous heat. Afternoon thunderstorms will start to build over the mountains of northern and eastern Arizona sending gusty winds and left over clouds into lower elevation communities.
DISCUSSION. An intense and expansive high pressure ridge was centered directly over the Arizona/New Mexico border this afternoon per objective analysis and satellite imagery. H5 heights nearing 599dm and H8 temperatures pushing +35C are hitting about the seasonal 99th percentile, about as extreme as it gets anywhere in the country anytime of year. Hence, it should be no surprise the region is now embarking on a pronounced and extended heat wave lasting throughout the entire week. While there may be a couple complicating issues affecting the ultimate temperature magnitude on any given date, it appears a foregone conclusion many daily record highs will be eclipsed this week (see Climate section below).
As the ridge center slowly migrates northwest towards the Arizona/Utah border over the next 72 hours, deep easterly flow will become established over the forecast area indicative of an early preview of a monsoon pattern. A series of PV anomalies over the central/southern high plains will rotate towards the southern periphery of this easterly flow and encourage ascent over the region. Initial moisture profiles are quite dry (deep boundary layer mixing ratios less than 5 g/kg) limiting congestive updrafts to the White Mountains (and surrounding areas), however there is resounding high resolution model output depicting a surge of higher H8 theta-e through southeast Arizona Tuesday afternoon helping invigorate more organized storms.
While overall moisture profiles will still be limited, lower elevation DCape nearing 2000 J/kg and apparent synoptic support could promote decaying showers descending from foothill locations producing locally strong, gusty winds and blowing dust into lower desert communities. HREF membership suggests a 30-50% chance of 30- 35 mph winds impacting many locations from Gila County into eastern half of Maricopa/Pinal counties. However, the FV3 member comprising a portion of the HREF is an extreme outlier (almost to the point of being unreasonable), so a conceptual adjustment would suggest a realistic expectation (i.e. 50th percentile) of 30-40 mph wind gusts near thunderstorms (and potentially impacting ongoing wildfires), and 20-30 mph gusts incorporating what might be a hastened and enhanced drainage easterly wind for the Phoenix area.
Very little change in heights or temperatures aloft would be expected for the majority of the week with such a slow movement to the ridge. Ascent mechanisms do not appear as robust Wednesday and Thursday likely keeping convection relegated to mountain locations but limited maintenance propagating towards lower elevations. Forecast BUFR soundings even suggest a period of subsidence warming aloft strongly capping off more widespread deep convection. More common will be periods of midlevel accas advecting within the easterly flow. Another variable to consider is wildfire smoke becoming entrained in this easterly flow regime. Combined with clouds, dense enough coverage during peak heating could certainly retard high temperatures several degrees from forecasts and record territory.
Ensemble guidance broadens, weakens, and displaces the ridge late in the week with H5 heights retreating to 590-594 dm, albeit still climatologically significant near the 90th percentile. This may provide a subtle cooldown of a few degrees Saturday as highs remain 5F-10F above normal. Specifically, lower elevations of Gila County appear poised for excessive heat Saturday, with the very high heat risk lingering over the Phoenix metro and parts of SE California into Sunday. Thus, the Excessive Heat Warning was extended in time for several locations around the area given the most updated ensemble mean temperature forecasts. Thankfully, there is very good ensemble agreement that ridging will further deteriorate and sink back into northern Mexico next week allowing temperatures to fall back closer to the climatological average.
AVIATION. Updated at 0025Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Late afternoon winds are somewhat weaker than they have been recently, partly due to the reduced insolation and mixing from the wildfire smoke. Nevertheless, breezy conditions are possible early this evening with occasional gusts up to 20 kt. The switch to easterly is then anticipated a bit later between 08z and 10z.
Smoke is again likely to drift into the Valley Tuesday, however visibilities will likely remain above 6 SM. Meanwhile, moisture will continue to be on the increase, which will lead to better thunderstorm chances, particularly to the east across Gila County. There is roughly a 30 percent chance an outflow boundary from this activity could reach the Phoenix area during the evening, resulting in an abrupt change in wind direction along with strong, gusty winds above 35 kt and blowing dust. Most likely terminals to be affected would be KPHX and KIWA. Otherwise, hazy skies will result in reduced slant-range visibilities around sunrise and sunset.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation weather impacts expected. Diurnal winds will predominate, generally retaining a southerly component along with occasional gusts up to 20 kt. Otherwise, skies will remain mostly clear, except for some occasional haze or smoke from distant wildfires.
FIRE WEATHER. Thursday through Monday: Fire weather concerns during the end of the week will include extremely hot temperatures and slight chances (~10-15%) for isolated thunderstorms, albeit with little rainfall but very gusty winds. Temperatures 10-15 degrees above the seasonal average will cool modestly to around 5 degrees above average early next week. Otherwise, even higher elevation locations where active fires currently burn should expect to see afternoon highs above 100F. Any storms will likely develop just outside the eastern districts with minimal chances (~5%) for wetting persisting into the local zones. More likely, an isolated lightning strike and very gusty and erratic outflow winds would be the result. Afternoon minimum humidity levels will mostly fall into single digits, however modest remnant moisture may allow values to hover in a 10-15% range by the weekend. Overnight recovery will remain poor to fair only in a 15-40% range.
Daily Record Highs
Date Phoenix Yuma El Centro ------------ ------- ---- --------- Monday 6/14 115 (1987) 119 (1961) 117 (1940) Tuesday 6/15 115 (1974) 118 (1917) 115 (1940) Wednesday 6/16 115 (1974) 119 (1917) 114 (1974) Thursday 6/17 114 (2015) 115 (1981) 115 (1971) Friday 6/18 115 (2015) 116 (2015) 117 (2015) Saturday 6/19 118 (2017) 120 (2016) 119 (2016)
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ537-540>544- 546-548>551.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Saturday for AZZ530>536- 538-539-545-547-552>556-559>562.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Friday for AZZ557-558-563.
CA . Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ562>567.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ560-561- 568>570.
DISCUSSION . MO/AD AVIATION . Hirsch FIRE WEATHER . MO
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|Palm Springs, Jacqueline Cochran Regional Airport, CA||27 mi||50 min||N 0||10.00 mi||Fair||88°F||41°F||19%||1005.8 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KTRM
Wind History from TRM (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||N||NW||NW|
|2 days ago||NW||NW||NW||NW||NW||N||NW||NW||NW||N||NW||NW||N||Calm||SE|
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