Saturday, May30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Desert Center, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:32AMSunset 7:51PM Saturday May 30, 2020 6:23 PM PDT (01:23 UTC) Moonrise 1:12PMMoonset 1:43AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Desert Center, CA
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location: 33.86, -115.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 302056 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 156 PM MST Sat May 30 2020

SYNOPSIS. Strong high pressure persisting over the region will lead to temperatures around 10 degrees above normal across south-central Arizona. Slightly cooler, but still above average temperatures are likely early next week as an area of low pressure slowly moves towards the west coast. Increasing moisture may also bring a slight chance of thunderstorms to southern Gila County through at least the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION. Current visible satellite shows thunderstorm activity increasing south of Tucson and over parts of Northern Arizona. Activity is still quiet for us but latest hi-res guidance and satellite trends suggest storms may develop over Gila County within the next couple of hours. Otherwise, temperatures across the Valley are already in the 104-107 degree range with a few more hours of peak heating to go. An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect for south-central Arizona, including Phoenix.

Farther west, atmospheric heights are falling as a low pressure system slowly moves onto the California coast. Heights will continue to fall today and tomorrow ultimately leading to a slight reprieve from the recent excessive temperatures. Afternoon highs today will be 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday across southeast California and western Arizona but the heat will linger through tomorrow in south-central Arizona. This afternoon will be a bit on the breezy side for southeast California and western Arizona with some gusts approaching 30 mph.

Otherwise, lingering moisture will keep chances for isolated thunderstorms over the higher terrain across the eastern half of Arizona. For our forecast area, the mountains east of Phoenix will have generally 10-20% chance for storms on any given afternoon over the next several days. Storms are not expected to be prolific rain producers, but may produce gusty winds, outflows, and lightning strikes. Distant storms may also send long traveling outflows and a few may reach the lower desert areas of Pinal and Maricopa Counties. Convection potential over the lower desert, including the Phoenix area, is limited given the overall dry atmospheric profile. Ensemble guidance remains consistent showing a Pacific trough deepening off the West Coast late next week. The ensemble spread on how the trough will progress is varied enough to create uncertainty in the forecast late next week. For the most part, trends still favor a gradual cool down through at least the middle of next week with afternoon highs nearing seasonal normals by Thursday or Friday.

AVIATION. Updated at 1800Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

Light winds this morning will continue to become variable at times before southwesterly winds take hold this afternoon. Afternoon breeziness with gusts upwards of 18 kts will be possible as daytime mixing increases. More thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon mainly to the south and east of the metro over the higher terrain. Can't rule out an outflow moving into the metro early this evening, but confidence is too low to mention in the KPHX, KSDL, and KDVT TAFs at this time. Have added an outflow in the KIWA TAF since there is higher confidence of an outflow reaching the site. Latest CAMs and HREF guidance indicate an outflow from the south/southeast reaching KIWA around 01Z-02Z with speeds upwards of 10-15 kts possible. The magnitude, timing, and direction of outflows are subject to change in later updates. Otherwise, FEW-SCT mid and high level clouds aoa 12 kft will be possible throughout the TAF period.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Winds at KIPL will favor a westerly component through the next 24 hours, while winds at KBLH will favor a south to southwesterly direction. Afternoon breeziness will be possible at both sites, with gusts upwards of 20-25 kts possible at times. Otherwise, mostly clear skies will persist, aside from some passing high clouds.

FIRE WEATHER. Tuesday through Saturday: Moisture may remain ample enough for isolated afternoon thunderstorms nearly every afternoon and evening across much of eastern Arizona, including Gila County. Storms farther west into the lower desert area around Phoenix is less likely. Storms are not likely to produce much rain, but may create strong gusty winds, outflows, and lightning strikes. Otherwise, winds are likely to follow typical diurnal directional trends with some afternoon breeziness. Minimum humidity values will drop into the 10-20% range with overnight recoveries rising into the 20-40% range. Even though these elements remain well below critical thresholds, the fire danger will remain heightened.

CLIMATE.

Record highs:

Date Phoenix Yuma ---- ------- ---- May 30 114 in 1910 120 in 1910

May 31 109 in 2012 113 in 2012

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ534-537>556- 559>561.

CA . None.

DISCUSSION . AD AVIATION . Smith FIRE WEATHER . AD/CB CLIMATE . Hodges/MO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Palm Springs, Jacqueline Cochran Regional Airport, CA27 mi31 minNW 16 G 2410.00 miFair94°F37°F14%1004.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTRM

Wind History from TRM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11NW15
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N12N9NW4NW9SE5NW9NW11W12NW11NW9NW10NW9
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1 day agoS3CalmNE5SE3NW5NE5CalmN3CalmCalmN3SW4CalmCalmNE3SE5SE8SE10S10SE7--SE11SE10SE5
2 days agoS4SW4N4N6W3CalmCalm3CalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmE4SE6SE8SE7SE11SE9
G15
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G18
SE9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Diego, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.