Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Redondo Beach, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...17/949 AM.

***UPDATE***

Marine layer clouds are retreating from the coasts and valleys, with mostly clear skies this morning across LA County. High clouds are streaming into the region from the east, indicative of the monsoonal moisture reaching the area.

This afternoon there is a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms focused over the San Gabriel Mountains. Late tonight into Friday morning, there is a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms across all of LA County and much of Ventura County.
Friday afternoon, there is 20-30 percent chance focused over the Ventura County Mountains, San Gabriel Mountains, and Antelope Valley, with a slight chance to reach the nearby valleys.

Dry lightning and gusty winds are the most likely hazards if a storm were to form, with a smaller chance of heavy downpour, especially over the higher terrain Friday afternoon.

***From Previous Discussion***

The marine layer is much lower (1200 ft vs 3000 ft) compared to ydy and this along with weaker on shore flow will result in less low cloud coverage than ydy. The offshore trends will also allow low clouds to clear a little earlier than they have been. A little bit of moisture will advect into LA county later this afternoon and will create a slight chc of TSTM over the eastern San Gabriels.
Max temps will be very similar to Wednesday save for the Paso Robles area which will see about 8 degrees of warming as the cooler southerly winds stop and turn northward.

Later this evening and the monsoon moisture influx will accelerate as an upper low to the south switches the upper level flow to the SE tapping into a wetter portion of the atmosphere. There is not that much instability but with CAPE values around 700J/km any little ripple of PVA rotating around the low could trigger a TSTM. Although steering flow is very light, chances for any flooding rains is under 5% as most of the moisture will be above 10000 ft. While the Central Coast will see another round of low clouds the low cloud fcst south of Pt Conception is less certain as the monsoon push may disrupt it. For now will keep the low clouds in the fcst but would not be surprised if there are less clouds than fcst.

The TSTM threat will continue over the LA county mtns and Antelope Vly (and to a much lesser degree the San Gabriel Vly) through the day on Friday. Aside from the morning stratus skies will likely be partly cloudy over LA and portions of VTA counties. Max temps will not change much across LA/VTA county, but the SBA south coast will see some weak north winds which will bring 2 to 5 degrees of warming. The interiors of SLO and SBA counties will also warm a few degrees.

The monsoon flow cuts off late Friday night and Saturday will have quiet weather. Again the marine layer south of Pt Conception may be disrupted, but still it is more likely than not. Rising hgts will bring 2 to 3 degrees of warming to most areas. Still, max temps will come in 2 to 4 locally 6 degrees blo normals.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...17/1214 AM.

A very benign 4 days of weather in the xtnd period. Srn CA will be under dry SW flow as it is sandwiched between high pressure over the desert SW and broad troffing over the PAC NW. Mdt to strong onshore flow will return and this will drive a persistent night through morning low cloud pattern with slow clearing (and no clearing at some west facing beaches). While there will be some gusty afternoon winds in the mtn and Antelope Vly they will be below advisory levels. Max temps will change little each day and will be 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees below normal.

AVIATION
17/1650Z.

At 1630Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1400 ft deep. The top of the marine inversion was at 4300 feet with a temperature of 22 C.

For 18Z TAF package, high confidence in KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF.

For other coastal/valley TAFs, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF.
Timing of return of CIG/VSBY restrictions could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts. There is a 40% chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop tonight from KOXR southward due to incoming mid-level moisture.

There is a chance of TSTMs this afternoon over the LA county mountains, with a slight chance of TSTMs tonight/Friday morning across all of Ventura and LA counties. Gusty downburst winds as well as lightning will be the main potential hazards.

KLAX...Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 40% chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop tonight. There is a 10-15% chance of TSTMs 08Z-18Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 30% chance of IFR conditions 08Z-16Z. Also, there is a 10-15% chance of TSTMs 08Z-18Z.

MARINE
17/950 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For Friday through Monday, there is a 30-50% chance of SCA level winds, especially across PZZ673/676 during the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Today through Monday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels for all of the Inner Waters.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.