Tuesday, October22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manhattan Beach, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 6:13PM Tuesday October 22, 2019 6:28 AM PDT (13:28 UTC) Moonrise 12:42AMMoonset 3:03PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 230 Am Pdt Tue Oct 22 2019
Today..From point mugu to santa Monica, N winds 10 to 20 kt becoming nw in the afternoon. Elsewhere, winds variable 10 kt or less becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 ft at 8 seconds and S 2 ft at 15 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. S swell 2 ft at 15 seconds.
Wed..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming nw 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. S swell 2 ft at 15 seconds.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 ft at 9 seconds and S 2 ft at 14 seconds.
Thu..From point mugu to santa Monica and across the san pedro channel to catalina, ne winds 15 to 25 kt. Elsewhere, E winds 10 to 15 kt. Combined seas 2 to 4 ft dominant period 9 seconds.
Thu night..From point mugu to santa Monica, ne winds 15 to 25 kt. Elsewhere, N winds 10 to 15 kt becoming 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Combined seas 2 to 4 ft dominant period 9 seconds.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. S swell 2 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft and S 2 ft.
PZZ600 230 Am Pdt Tue Oct 22 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 09z, or 2 am pdt, a 1031 mb high pressure center was located 600 nm west of san francisco and extended to a 1029 mb high over nevada. There will be gusty offshore winds across the nearshore waters between point mugu and santa Monica on Tuesday and will be even stronger and more widespread on Thursday likely affecting the san pedro channel to catalina.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manhattan Beach city, CA
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location: 33.88, -118.41     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 221211
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
511 am pdt Tue oct 22 2019

Synopsis 22 421 am.

A weak to locally moderate santa ana wind event will affect
portions of ventura and los angeles today. Hot and dry conditions
will affect most of the region. Wednesday will be slightly cooler
with less wind. A stronger santa ana wind event is expected to
develop by Thursday, and it will linger into Friday. Cooler
weather is expected over the weekend.

Short term (tdy-thu) 22 507 am.

Dangerous fire weather conditions possible Thursday into
Friday due to potential for moderate to strong santa ana winds,
single digit humidities, hot conditions, and very dry fuels...

clear skies across the entire forecast area again early this
morning, and it is beginning to sound like a broken record, that
this will likely be the case through the entire short term period.

Also, w-e pressure gradients between klax and kdag were about 3,5
mb offshore, about the same as they were on Mon at this time. N-s
gradients between ksba kbfl and klax kbfl remained offshore, but
have weakened during the past 24 hours. Some gusty northeast winds
were occurring in the mountains this morning, and models show
winds increasing and filtering into the valleys of western and
northern l.A. County and eastern vtu county around daybreak. A
wind advisory is in effect until noon, but it should be a very
low end advisory event.

Profiler data shows 2-3 degrees c of warming during the past
24 hours in the lowest 3000 feet. The WRF shows a couple of
degrees of warming at 950 mb today. Therefore, expect MAX temps to
be a couple of degrees higher in most areas today, with highs in
the 90s in most coastal and valley areas. It is not out of the
question that one or two locations could have a high temperature
of 100 degrees today. Somewhere in southern california will
undoubtedly have the high temperature in the country today. Have
decided to issue a heat advisory for most coastal and valley areas
today, since the late season heat will likely catch people off
guard today. Interestingly enough, daily records are quite high
today, as october 22nd was also very hot in both 1965 and 2003.

The strong upper high over the region will flatten out and shift
southward and westward tonight and Wed as a large upper trough
begins to develop over the rockies. Gradients will remain offshore
wed morning, and there will still likely be some locally gusty
winds in the mtns and valleys of l.A. And vtu counties late
tonight Wed morning. Pressure gradients will turn either weakly
onshore or become neutral Wed afternoon. Heights and thicknesses
will fall on wed, as will temps at 950 mb, but they will still
remain quite high. Expect several degrees of cooling on wed,
especially across the coastal plain. However, temps should still
be well above normal, and highs should still reach or exceed 90
degrees in the valleys, and possibly across interior sections of
the coastal plain. The gfs, with the strongest onshore flow, is
the coolest of the deterministic models for wed.

There will continue to the elevated to brief critical fire
weather conditions across much of the region through wed.

The upper trough will sharpen as it drops southward through the
rockies Wed night and thu. At the same time, the upper high in
the eastern pacific will amplify and approach the west coast.

This will create a northerly flow pattern aloft across the
forecast area. At the surface, offshore gradients will increase
sharply Wed night and early thu, with gradients between klax and
kdag between -7 and -9 mb on the WRF and ec. The GFS has weaker
offshore gradients. The ec has been quite consistent for days
now, with its ensemble members indicating a moderate to strong
santa ana wind event across the region for thu. The WRF shows
decent upper level support with 850 mb winds up to 55 knots in
the mountains of l.A. County along with good subsidence, and some
cold air advection. Therefore, expect areas of gusty northeast
winds to develop in the mtns and valleys of l.A. And vtu counties
late Wed night, and become widespread and peak in intensity on
thu, likely spreading into coastal sections of vtu county and l.A.

County from malibu to the hollywood hills. Winds may reach high
wind warning levels in the most wind prone areas, with widespread
advisory level winds likely. Heights and thicknesses will be high
on thu, but low level cold advection should lead to cooling in
the mtns, deserts and interior valleys, with little change in the
lower valleys, and possibly some warming near the coast.

Long term (fri-mon) 22 459 am.

Offshore gradients will relax a bit across the region fr, but it
will likely still remain windy in the morning across much of l.A.

And vtu counties, with winds probably at advisory levels. Heights
and thicknesses will rise on fri, as will temps at 850 mb 950 mb.

With the decreasing winds and lack of cold air advection, max
temps should jump a few degrees fri, which should be the hottest
day of the extended period. High temps should rise into the 90s in
many coastal and valley areas.

A trough will drop southward into the pac NW Fri night sat, causing
the upper high over the region to weaken and shift southward.

While gradients will start the day offshore sat, they will turn
onshore during the day. Expect several degrees of cooling west of
the mountains sat, especially on the coastal plain. Hottest
locations in the valleys could still have highs near 90 degrees sat.

The GFS is progressive with the trough, bringing it into the
rockies sun, then into the midwest mon. The ec shows it digging
more sharply into the great basin Sun and Sun night, possibly far
enough west to bring a threat of showers to southern and eastern
sections of the forecast area late Sun night mon. The ec then shows
the trough ejecting quickly eastward mon. Latest runs of both
operational models show less threat of showers across eastern and
southern sections of the forecast areas Sun night and early mon,
and if this trend continues, pops may have to be removed. Either
way, expect considerable cooling sun, with temps down to near
normal levels, then little change in temps on mon.

Aviation 22 1143z.

At 1130z, there was no marine layer depth at klax.

High confidence with cavu conditions in the current forecast. Periods
of moderate uddf and llws are possible at all terminals across
l.A. And ventura counties through 18z.

Klax... Cavu conditions expected for the 30-hour period. There is a
30% chance for east winds to reach greater than 6 knots through
16z this morning.

Kbur... There is a 20 percent chance of moderate wind shear and
turbulence through 15z. Otherwise,VFR conditions are expected
through the period.

Marine 22 510 am.

For the outer waters, there is a forty percent chance of small
craft advisory (sca) level winds for the northwest portion of
the northern zone (pzz670) on Wednesday, otherwise conditions
will remain below SCA levels through the forecast period.

For the inner waters north of point sal, conditions will remain
below SCA levels through the forecast period.

For the inner waters south of point conception, there is a thirty
percent chance of SCA level winds this morning nearshore between
point mugu and malibu this morning, then a 70% chance on Thursday
but more widespread. The strongest winds will occur from ventura
to santa monica and out to the channel islands, as well as the san
pedro channel to catalina. Strongest winds will occur in the
morning but could hang through mid afternoon. Otherwise conditions
will remain below SCA levels through the forecast period.

Fire weather 21 909 pm.

Through Wednesday afternoon, elevated to brief critical fire
weather conditions will persist due to weak to locally moderate
santa ana winds, hot temperatures, low humidities, and very dry
fuels. Tuesday will be the closest to critical over los angeles
and ventura counties, when the santa ana winds get a slight bump
upward due to a slight increase in offshore pressure gradient and
upper level wind support. Peak wind gusts between 20 and 40 mph
are expected, strongest on Tuesday. Expecting some areas (like the
mountains, and santa clarita eastern ventura valleys foothills)
to see 2 to 4 hours of critical fire weather conditions on
Tuesday.

Late Wednesday night through Friday, a more significant santa ana
wind event will likely bring widespread critical fire weather
conditions to los angeles and ventura counties, and elevated to
brief critical conditions for santa barbara and san luis obispo
counties. A fire weather watch has been issued, with a high
probability of being upgraded to a red flag warning as we draw
closer to the event. There is still some uncertainty in the
strength of the winds, but peak gusts between 40 and 60 mph is
the most likely outcome. With projected lax-daggett gradients
potentially reaching -7 to -8 mb and fairly strong upper level
wind support, there is the potential these wind speeds will
need to be ramped up even higher. Humidities will likely lower
to 2 to 9 percent, with temperatures into the 90s. The extended
period of hot and dry conditions leading into the Thursday-Friday
santa ana event will make fuels very dry, adding to the potential
for increased fire ignitions and rapid fire growth. This has the
potential to be a very dangerous red flag event with very critical
fire weather conditions due to the strength and duration of the
santa ana winds, hot temperatures, very low humidities, and
critically dry fuels. Fire weather conditions could be as severe
as we saw on october 10th-11th during the saddleridge fire.

The expected fire weather conditions will create an environment
that will bring the potential for very rapid fire spread,
long range spotting, and extreme fire behavior which could
threaten life and property. We urge everyone to be extremely
cautious with any potential fire ignition sources. Fires have
started from things like cigarettes, camp fires, welding and brush
clearing equipment, and dragging towing chains.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... Heat advisory in effect from 10 am this morning to 5 pm pdt
this afternoon for zones 34>36-40-41-44>46-547. (see laxnpwlox).

Wind advisory in effect until noon pdt today for zones
44>46-53-54-88. (see laxnpwlox).

Fire weather watch in effect from late Wednesday night
through Friday evening for zones
240-241-244>246-253-254-288-547-548. (see laxrfwlox).

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (thu-mon)
Strong and gusty northeast winds and very dry air will affect
much of los angeles and ventura counties Thursday into Friday.

Critical fire weather conditions are possible in these areas,
with elevated fire weather conditions on the central coast.

Public... Db
aviation... Kaplan
marine... Kaplan
fire... Gomberg kittell
synopsis... Db
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 10 mi58 min NNE 7 G 8 76°F 66°F1017.4 hPa
PXAC1 11 mi64 min NW 4.1 G 4.1
BAXC1 12 mi70 min N 1.9 G 1.9
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 12 mi32 min 67°F2 ft
PSXC1 12 mi58 min N 5.1 G 6
OHBC1 - 9410660 - Los Angeles, CA 13 mi58 min 66°F1017.5 hPa
PFDC1 13 mi58 min NW 5.1 G 5.1
AGXC1 14 mi58 min NNW 5.1 G 5.1
PFXC1 14 mi58 min N 4.1 G 5.1
PRJC1 16 mi58 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1
46256 17 mi28 min 66°F4 ft
46222 - San Pedro, CA (092) 19 mi35 min 65°F2 ft
46253 24 mi28 min 65°F3 ft
46025 - Santa Monica Basin - 33NM West Southwest of Santa Monica, CA 35 mi38 min N 1.9 G 3.9 67°F 66°F2 ft1017 hPa67°F

Wind History for Santa Monica, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Los Angeles, Los Angeles International Airport, CA4 mi35 minN 010.00 miFair70°F39°F32%1017.1 hPa
Hawthorne, Hawthorne Municipal Airport, CA5 mi35 minN 010.00 miFair67°F41°F39%1017.3 hPa
Santa Monica, Santa Monica Municipal Airport, CA11 mi37 minN 410.00 miFair66°F39°F37%1017.2 hPa
Los Angeles / USC Campus Downtown, CA12 mi36 minN 010.00 miFair67°F41°F39%1017 hPa
Long Beach, Long Beach Airport, CA14 mi35 minN 010.00 miFair61°F43°F52%1017.2 hPa
Los Alamitos Army Airfield, CA20 mi30 minN 310.00 miFair53°F42°F67%1017.2 hPa
Burbank - Bob Hope Airport, CA22 mi35 minN 010.00 miFair61°F36°F39%1017.1 hPa
Fullerton, Fullerton Municipal Airport, CA23 mi35 minN 010.00 miFair60°F42°F52%1016.9 hPa
Van Nuys, Van Nuys Airport, CA23 mi37 minW 410.00 miFair68°F33°F27%1017.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLAX

Wind History from LAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3CalmCalm3E43W8W11W11W12W13W9W7SW6SW5SE3CalmCalmE5CalmNE3E3CalmCalm
1 day agoE3E5SE5SE3SE5S3W7W7SW10SW10SW10SW8W9N84Calm3E4CalmNE3NE7CalmE5NE4
2 days agoE43SE5S3CalmW8W8W10W9W10W7SW6SW6SW6CalmCalmSE5S3Calm3CalmNE9E4E5

Tide / Current Tables for El Segundo, Santa Monica Bay, California
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El Segundo
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Tue -- 12:42 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:44 AM PDT     4.02 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:04 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:37 AM PDT     2.81 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:03 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:15 PM PDT     4.72 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:11 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.71.42.22.93.63.943.83.53.12.92.833.544.54.74.64.23.42.41.40.6

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Monica, California
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Santa Monica
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:42 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:33 AM PDT     4.13 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:04 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:20 AM PDT     2.93 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:03 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:01 PM PDT     5.00 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:11 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.91.62.43.23.84.14.13.93.53.12.933.33.84.44.854.84.23.32.31.30.5

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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Santa Ana Mtns, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.