Monday, August10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Caswell Beach, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 8:05PM Monday August 10, 2020 1:59 PM EDT (17:59 UTC) Moonrise 11:06PMMoonset 11:48AM Illumination 58% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 109 Pm Edt Mon Aug 10 2020
This afternoon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the morning.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 109 Pm Edt Mon Aug 10 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Weak bermuda high will maintain ill-defined gradient and light winds through the end of the week. Isolated to scattered showers and Thunderstorms will be possible each day.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caswell Beach, NC
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location: 33.9, -78.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 101630 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1230 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure offshore and a weak trough of low pressure inland will maintain warm and humid conditions with scattered showers and thunderstorms through most of the week.

UPDATE. Only minor changes needed for morning update. Still expect temperatures a little above climo this afternoon in most areas. Weak mid-level subsidence will help hold convection at bay initially. Eventually the sea breeze and the remains of a boundary inland will become focal points for convection later this afternoon and evening.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. Primary hazards this period: lightning, localized excessive rain, and isolated TSTM wind gusts to 40 kt.

The atmospheric flow is August lazy in terms of kinetic energy through the column, as we reside near the eastern edge of an upper ridge. Effective shear and 10 meter winds are running light, clouds and upper features are very gradually moving seaward. A mid-level cap will give-way, ahead of short-wave energy late today. This should trigger TSTMs after a good day of prime heating after about 5pm beginning inland, and gradually propagating eastward, potentially fading in strength on approach to coast tonight.

Preceding this, we should see weaker capped convection near the sea breeze front, and along a WSW to ENE surface boundary over the far interior. The short-wave should help force what's left of boundary closer to the coast, while precipitable water values increase late.

No significant upper features of note Tuesday, except precipitable water values will reach to 2.25 inches. This in conjunction with low level convergence, and CAPE similar to today 2000-3000 joules worth.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Shortwave energy will meander around the Ohio River Valley between two areas of upper-level ridging. A second piece of energy will also hang around the coastal areas of Georgia and offshore of the Carolinas on Thursday. These two ingredients will provide elevated thunderstorm coverage on Wednesday. Temperatures during the day are likely to hover around 90 or in the upper 80s with cloud cover and early thunderstorm development producing outflows. Overnight temperatures will remain in the upper 70s with soaring dew points in an oppressive air mass.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Upper-level flow will become split between two 500-mb ridges by the middle of next week. An upper-level high over the desert southwest and another ridge over the North Atlantic will provide a crevasse of weak troughing over the eastern US. Ensembles of mid-level energy remain scattered around the potential for weak shortwaves to traverse the area late next week. Overall, the ridge over the North Atlantic will attempt to creep westward on Friday and Friday night. Will maintain an elevated chance of afternoon storms on Thursday with a slightly lower chance on Friday. On Saturday, weak ridging will build into the area from the east. Models agree fairly well on the extent of the elongated trough over the southern US. Upper-level high pressure will provide above normal temperatures and suppress afternoon thunderstorm coverage. We will maintain our typical chances of an afternoon storm or two, especially along the diurnal sea breeze and inland thermal gradients. Weak ridging will continue into Sunday and Monday, but begins a slow retreat early next week.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Convection already firing along the sea breeze boundary. Most of the focus will be along this boundary, with upper level winds try to take the storms toward the coast. Most of the activity will be over by nightfall.

Extended Outlook . TSTMs, isolated to scattered will continue through the period. Patches of morning fog generally between 8z-11z should be expected, or localized MVFR stratus. Winds outside of TSTMs should remain light, an southerly.

MARINE. A favorable boating environment, aside from sail racing, as light wind and gentle seas welcome mariners. The primary marine hazard remains the elements associated with TSTMs, lightning and gusty winds. Even though most TSTMs are expected over land the next couple days, radar updates are encouraged, as nocturnal TSTMs could move into the 20nm water into early mornings, or a storm drifting off land in the evening. The highest winds will be near shore during the afternoons, gusting near 16 kt. The sea spectrum is very summer- like, SSW wind-waves mixed with a Bermuda swell. Both however are on the low end in amplitude and exceedingly low sea heights are observed, from 1.3 ft at Masonboro buoy this morning, to 1.6 feet at Frying Pan shoals. Frying Pan air temp 82 and water temp 83, August right on time.

Typical summertime southerly winds around 10 knots due to the dominating Bermuda high. Seas will generally be 2-3 feet with no significant swell. Elevated shower and thunderstorm chances are expected through the middle of next week. Rain chances decrease into next weekend as weak upper-level ridging builds over the North Atlantic and attempts to slide westward.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . ILM UPDATE . III NEAR TERM . MJC SHORT TERM . 21 LONG TERM . 21 AVIATION . 43 MARINE . MJC/21


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 13 mi59 min 85°F2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 21 mi51 min SW 9.7 G 14 83°F 85°F1019 hPa
41119 22 mi72 min 85°F1 ft
WLON7 24 mi65 min 89°F 83°F1018.5 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi52 min 84°F1 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 26 mi51 min SSW 9.7 G 16 72°F 84°F1018.5 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 27 mi65 min S 12 G 13 84°F 82°F1018.3 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 36 mi49 min SW 1.9 G 3.9 84°F 83°F1018.6 hPa74°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 39 mi51 min WSW 7.8 G 12 82°F 83°F1019.6 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 47 mi65 min 82°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC2 mi64 minSSW 610.00 miFair87°F76°F71%1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S6S7S3S5S3SW4SW3S4SW5SW3SW5W7W6SW5W4W4CalmW6W7SW6SW7S7SW6
1 day agoS5S6S7S5S4S5S4SW4SW5S5SW5SW6SW5W5W7NW3CalmCalmW4W3CalmSW4S4S6
2 days agoSW3SW6S6S5S6S5S3S4S3NW12
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Tide / Current Tables for Yaupon Beach, North Carolina
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Yaupon Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:21 AM EDT     4.53 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:25 AM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:52 PM EDT     4.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:51 PM EDT     1.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.54.43.93.12.11.30.80.81.42.33.34.14.54.74.43.72.821.51.31.62.23.13.7

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:27 AM EDT     4.14 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:46 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:58 PM EDT     4.28 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:12 PM EDT     1.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.14.13.732.11.30.80.71.11.92.83.64.14.34.13.52.721.41.21.31.92.63.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.