Tuesday, April20, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Caswell Beach, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 7:48PM Tuesday April 20, 2021 12:28 AM EDT (04:28 UTC) Moonrise 11:47AMMoonset 1:40AM Illumination 57% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1137 Pm Edt Mon Apr 19 2021
Overnight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming nw 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms through the day, then showers likely through the night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1137 Pm Edt Mon Apr 19 2021
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will build across north carolina this morning, then move offshore. A strong cold front will approach from the west Wednesday and cross the coast Wednesday night. Much cooler high pressure will build in Thursday and Friday, and advisories will likely be needed Wednesday night through Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caswell Beach, NC
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location: 33.9, -78.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 200359 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1159 PM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021

SYNOPSIS. Dry and cool high pressure will build in overnight. Expect patchy light rain along the coast late Tuesday night and very early Wednesday as a weak warm front lifts north. A cold front will cross the area late Wednesday, with colder and drier air moving in Thursday and Friday. A storm system will approach from the Gulf Coast states late Saturday into Sunday. High pressure is expected early next week across the region.

UPDATE. No changes this update.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Deep dry and cool NW flow developing behind exiting low pressure. Sea breeze produced onshore flow coming against the N-NW flow building in which in turn produced some convergence just along the Cape Fear coast, but subsidence and dry air took over shortly thereafter with gusty N-NW flow. Winds will lighten and veer tonight into Tues as weak high pressure migrates eastward across NC. This will allow for decent radiational cooling tonight with temps dipping just below 50 most places away from the beaches.

Winds will continue to come around with onshore flow developing on Tues. This will help push cool air onshore, although water temps are well into the 60s to near 70 now. This will keep beaches closer 70 with inland areas reaching into the mid 70s. A shortwave will ride by late Tues into Tues night. This will produce more in the way of mid to high clouds late Tues, but a passing shower is possible with low end pops included in forecast from late evening Tues into early morning hours. Temps should in the mid 50s most places Tues night.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Dry cold front will move across the area on Wed. Strong warm advection ahead of the front will push highs well above climo and lead to rather gusty winds. Gusts 30 mph are not out of the question both ahead of and behind the front. Air mass is also very dry so Wed has the potential to be a significant fire weather day. Partial thickness values give highs in the 80s with relative humidity potentially dipping under 30%. Front passes late Wed afternoon with an unseasonably cool air mass building in. Strong cold advection Wed night will drop lows well below climo. Wind will stay up all night, making frost very unlikely, but lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s certainly seem possible.

Thu is another tricky forecast. Incoming air mass is impressively cold front late April. The problem is the air mass is very dry and the sun is getting higher in the sky given that it's late April. Cold advection shuts off by mid-morning Thu and downslope flow will set up. All of these factors should lead to rapid air mass modification. In a fairly recent event involving very dry air, many areas had a diurnal range in excess of 40 degrees. Thu could be another day with fire weather concerns as well, mainly across NC. Strong winds will be present just above the top of the mixed layer. If temperatures end up a little warmer, as little as 2 degrees, instead of mixing 15 to 20 kt winds to the surface winds in excess of 30 kt could be mixed to the surface. The key will be temperatures Thu afternoon and what height the jet is at. Did bump up both sustained winds and wind gusts, but this will be something to keep an eye on.

Thu night could be a potential problem as far as frost goes. Light to calm winds and clear skies will allow for excellent radiational cooling. In addition the air mass will be excessively dry. Nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions will exist and could allow for lows into mid 30s in the coldest spots. Not expecting a freeze at this point, but frost is certainly a possibility, even with how dry the air mass is.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Extended will be marked by weak high pressure at the start and end with storm system moving across the area Sat into Sun. Right now the weekend system looks like it would be a decent rain producer, but confidence is on the low side. Guidance has not been doing all the well with pop/qpf in our area the last few days. However, at least part of this is down to the pattern aloft and it appears the pattern aloft will transition out of the weak/split flow pattern. This does boost confidence a little. The details remain fuzzy given the extended time range, but warm front will lift across the area at some point on Sat with the low passing over or just inland of the forecast area Sat night. This could lead to some severe weather potential late Sat or Sat night, but again confidence in the weekend forecast is very low right now.

- Dry conditions Fri and Mon.

- Potential for 0.50" to 1.00" of rainfall Sat into early Sun.

- Temperatures below climo Fri increasing to near to slightly above climo Fri night through Mon.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours with light onshore winds.

Extended Outlook . There is a low chance of IFR ceilings Wednesday morning as a warm front moves north across the area. A cold front expected to cross the region Wednesday night has only a low chance of convective showers associated with it. Otherwise VFR will continue.

MARINE. Through Tuesday Night: Low pressure will continue to track off to the northeast with gusty NW-N winds up to 20 kts on the back end with a spike up in seas up to 3 to 4 ft. Winds will continue to veer around to the N-NE and diminish by morning as high pressure migrates eastward across North Carolina. Once the high reaches offshore on Tues, winds will become onshore to SE by Tues aftn and increasing up to 15 kts out of the S-SW by Tues night. Seas will be down less than 3 ft through much of Tues into Tues night.

Wednesday through Saturday: Waters will become fairly active mid to late week. Dry cold front approaches from the west on Wed with tight gradient increasing southwest flow to a solid 20 kt through Wed afternoon. Offshore flow develops in the wake of the front with speeds in excess of 20 kt as strong cold advection sets up. Flow weakens on Thu and slowly backs to southwest as high pressure builds in for Fri. Low pressure approaches from the west on Sat with southerly flow increasing to 20 to 25 kt later Sat and Sat night. Seas start out around 2 ft but increase to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon as southwest flow picks up. Seas peak around 4 ft Wed night before dropping to 2 ft or less by Thu morning as offshore flow sets up and then starts to weaken. Seas build to 4 to 7 ft later Sat ahead of the next system.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . UPDATE . 08 NEAR TERM . RGZ SHORT TERM . III LONG TERM . III AVIATION . TRA MARINE . III/RGZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 13 mi58 min 66°F3 ft
MBIN7 17 mi28 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 59°F 1014.7 hPa (+1.8)
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 21 mi80 min ENE 9.7 G 14 63°F 67°F1016.4 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 21 mi103 min N 1 57°F 48°F
SSBN7 22 mi71 min 2 ft
MBNN7 23 mi34 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 57°F 1014.9 hPa
WLON7 24 mi58 min 56°F 69°F1015.5 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 26 mi80 min NNE 9.7 G 14 62°F 64°F1015.2 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 26 mi51 min 64°F2 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 27 mi58 min NNW 5.1 G 7 58°F 65°F1015.1 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 36 mi38 min N 14 G 16 65°F 68°F4 ft1014.9 hPa52°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 39 mi80 min NNE 14 G 19 63°F 67°F1014.6 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 47 mi58 min 65°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC2 mi33 minN 010.00 miFair53°F44°F73%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S3S4S6S7S8SW8W10
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E3SE5E4SE6S7S5SE5S4S4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW3W4W4W3W3NW4NW6N3NE5NE5E5NE5E4SE7S6S5S7S5S4S4SW5CalmCalmSW3

Tide / Current Tables for Yaupon Beach, North Carolina
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Yaupon Beach
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Tue -- 01:42 AM EDT     4.79 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:00 AM EDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:06 AM EDT     1.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:16 PM EDT     3.99 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:19 PM EDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.34.74.84.43.72.71.91.311.21.82.63.33.843.93.42.71.91.20.911.52.5

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
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Tue -- 01:48 AM EDT     4.38 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:00 AM EDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:27 AM EDT     0.91 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:22 PM EDT     3.65 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:40 PM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.84.34.44.13.52.71.91.3111.42.22.93.43.63.63.22.61.91.30.90.81.22

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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