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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 957 Pm Est Tue Dec 5 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 am est Wednesday through Wednesday evening...
Overnight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon, then increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the evening, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. A chance of showers, then showers likely after midnight.
Sun..S winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W in the evening, then becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft, building to 6 to 9 ft in the afternoon and evening, then subsiding to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. Showers likely through the day, then a chance of showers in the evening.

AMZ200 957 Pm Est Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Offshore low pressure will drag a cold front through the area overnight. The front will be offshore come early Wednesday with breezy nw flow bringing small craft advisory conditions. High pressure will bring lighter winds Thursday through Saturday. Winds and rain chances should increase dramatically Sunday with the arrival of the next front.

FXUS62 KILM 060256 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 956 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

SYNOPSIS
Offshore low pressure will drag a cold front through the area overnight. The front moves offshore Wednesday morning, putting us in dry, breezy northwesterly flow. High pressure will bring lighter winds and a warming trend Thursday through Saturday.
Winds and rain chances should increase dramatically Sunday with the arrival of the next front. Cooler and drier weather arrives once again early next week.

UPDATE
No major changes necessary from the ongoing forecast. Light or calm winds across the area currently supporting efficient radiational cooling will be temporary as a cold front draws near and pushes through overnight. Winds pick up as the pressure gradient tightens and drier air spills in, which should bump temps a few degrees initially before they settle back down late in the night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
An area of low pressure is currently offshore from SE NC. This system will move away to the NE through tonight as a strong shortwave approaches from the NW, amplifying as it moves overhead. This in conjunction with the retreating low will push a dry cold front through the area with the feature being offshore by Wed morning. With strong boundary layer winds overnight and some passing mid-level clouds, don't think radiational cooling will be excessive tonight. Lows in the upper 30s to near 40.

Some isolated light showers could be possible in SE NC early Wed as some moisture lingers aloft but decided to leave this out of the forecast due to low confidence. Guidance also seems to be trending drier as strong downslope flow dries us out quickly through the morning from west to east generally. With the shortwave aloft, 925mb winds will be ~25-30 kts. A portion of this will mix down during the day leading to some pretty breezy conditions after sunrise, gusts increasing into the afternoon to ~30 mph. Highs generally in the mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Quiet period here, with increased northwesterly flow aloft. Clear skies expected Wednesday night, with lows a degree or two below the freezing mark. Plenty of sunshine on the way for Thursday, with highs only hitting the mid 50s again. Ridging aloft starts to build in a bit Thursday night, and flow in the low levels becomes a bit more westerly instead of northwesterly. Slight increase in cloud cover Thursday night, with lows in the mid 30s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Ridging continues to increase Friday, which really picks up the warming trend (highs in the lower 60s). Friday night into Saturday, the area gets caught in the eastern portion of a strong trough, which really kicks up some deepening southwesterly flow.
Temperatures increase as a result, from lows Friday night in the mid 40s shooting up to highs near 70 Saturday. Subtle shortwaves move from southwest to northeast offshore, and it might bring just enough moisture to squeeze out a shower or two along the coast.

Storyline really starts to change Saturday night into Sunday, as this strong trough and associated front approaches the area.
Rain chances continue to increase with each forecast update, and while thunder still isn't likely at this time, instability does look a bit better this time around than it did 24 hours ago.
Bigger factor is perhaps the winds, with 40-45 mph winds only 3000ft above the surface. The good news is that the boundary layer continues to be much shallower than that. Even so, winds at the top of the mixed layer could come down to the surface at 30-35 mph (as things stand right now). More sunshine could bring deeper mixing, and therefore higher winds at the surface.

Front moves offshore Sunday night, and cool high pressure follows right after that. Sunny skies return early next week, with highs in the mid 50s and lows in the mid 30s.

AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR through the valid TAF period. Weak westerly flow this evening will become more northwest following the passage of a cold front Wed morning. Patches of mid/high cloud will move overhead from time to time as the mid-level trough passes to the north. Shower coverage associated with the 5h trough will be very limited and more than likely remain confined to areas north of ILM/LBT. Main forecast issue will be gusty northwest winds. Winds around 25 kt at the top of the mixed layer will surface starting mid-morning and continue through mid to late afternoon. Gusts of around 25 kt will be possible as these winds surface.

Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR ceilings look to develop Saturday and Sunday due to an approaching cold front.

MARINE
Through Wednesday...An offshore low will move away from the area to the northeast tonight, pushing a cold front through by Wed morning. The pressure gradient will increase through Wed with gusts over the waters reaching SCA criteria, NW winds gusting 25-30 kts. Waves generally 2-4 ft with a strong NW wind wave and a SE swell at 7-9 seconds.

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Northerly winds decrease Wednesday night as high pressure comes in, bringing an end to the Small Craft Advisory thresholds. This trend continues into Thursday, with winds at 10kts and backing to the WSW (seas drop from 2-3ft to 1-2ft). Southwesterly winds Friday become southeasterly by Saturday ahead of a cold front, with seas increasing back to 2-3ft. Strong cold front approaches Saturday night into Sunday, bringing a very stout increase in both winds and seas that easily hit well into Small Craft Advisory territory. Winds may gust up to or just above 30kts, and seas may hit 7-8ft 20nm offshore.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to midnight EST Wednesday night for AMZ250-252-254-256.

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Yaupon Beach
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Tue -- 12:51 AM EST     Last Quarter
Tue -- 12:54 AM EST     4.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:40 AM EST     1.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:57 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 01:04 PM EST     4.54 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:03 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:17 PM EST     1.04 feet Low Tide
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Yaupon Beach, North Carolina, Tide feet

Cape Fear
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Tue -- 12:51 AM EST     Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:00 AM EST     3.74 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:01 AM EST     1.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:57 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 01:10 PM EST     4.15 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:38 PM EST     0.94 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Fear, North Carolina, Tide feet

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