Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Caswell Beach, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1) Weekend heat indices to reach Heat Advisory thresholds along with increasing rain chances both days.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Weekend heat indices to reach Heat Advisory thresholds along with increasing rain chances both days.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...The upper and sfc ridging will slowly get depressed to the south during this weekend. This will allow a sfc cold front to drop to and stall across the FA today then eventually dissipate during Sun. The sea breeze will develop both afternoons and likely interact with the stalled/meandering front today and whats left of the front Sunday. Both days will feature pieces of energy within mid-level flow that will also influence convective development both days.
Look for POPs to increase to generally mid to high chance both days, with likely thrown in there for some locations. By the end of this weekend, majority of the FA will have observe some rainfall but amounts will differ as 1 would expect with convection. Both days, especially today, will feature high temps similar to Fri with the exception of the immediate coast may break the 90 degree mark. Sfc dewpoints to run in the low to mid 70s and when combined with temps, heat indices are forecast to reach heat advisory thresholds, with a 105 to 108 degree range being forecast today. Both Sat/Sun afternoon/evening convection will help limit the duration of the heat adv across locales lucky enough to observe this thunderstorm activity.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Primarily VFR outside of restrictions from showers and storms this afternoon. Winds will be light to start the day with the afternoon sea breeze increasing winds to ~13-15 kts out of the south. It's unsure how far inland this will get as it could be influenced by afternoon storms which could drop temporarily gusty winds where they end up. MVFR/IFR VSBYs and CIGs expected in storms. Coverage should decrease after sunset.

Extended Forecast...A secondary front early next week will bring a period of wet and unsettled conditions through midweek.
Periodic MVFR/IFR convection during the afternoon and evening remain possible 2nd half of this weekend into early next week.
Patchy morning fog and/or stratus also possible, favored where heavy rain fell the day before.

MARINE
Today through Wednesday...Frontal boundary will stall and become oriented WSW to ENE, remaining north of the area coastal and offshore waters. The sfc pg will relax some today thru tonight with generally SSW-SW winds 10-15 kt, slightly hier nearshore this aftn/evening due to the sea breeze. The sfc front dissipates Sun and the sfc pg tightens as the next cold front descends towards the eastern Carolinas. Looks for SW winds to increase to near SCA thresholds Sun night, with 30 kt gusts offshore, then back down late Mon thru Wed. Seas will likely be dominated by the locally produced wind driven variety, ie. with periods 5 seconds or less, since any long period ESE-SSE swell at 8+ second periods will be small to negligible.

CLIMATE
Hot temperatures are expected this weekend which a few sites may reach record highs. The hottest day of the weekend will be today. The high temp records for each climate site this weekend are provided below.

Sat Sun Location Jun 13 Jun 14 Wilmington, NC: 98 (2002) 99 (1958)
Lumberton, NC: 101 (1920) 101 (2015)
N. Myrtle Beach, SC: 98 (1998) 98 (2010)
Florence, SC: 102 (2022) 102 (1958)

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.