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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 635 Am Est Wed Nov 29 2023
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft.
Thu night..E winds 5 kt. Seas 1 ft, then 2 ft after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.

AMZ200 635 Am Est Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure overhead will bring minimal wind and seas through Thursday. Southerly flow returns on Friday ahead of a cold front that will stall near the waters over the weekend.

FXUS62 KILM 291110 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 605 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

SYNOPSIS
Cold Canadian high pressure will push offshore later in the week with a gradual return to milder temperatures beginning Thursday. Rain chances will increase as upper level disturbances pass over the area through the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Surface high pressure overhead, 1000-500mb thicknesses of 540 dam, and 850mb temps below zero for most of the day...another chilly day on tap indeed. In fact the 850 temps aren't very relevant today as mixing will be a scant 1500-2000 ft or so due to the winds being so light through that layer beneath a weak inversion. In such a setup it is tempting to factor in some of the cooler probabilistic guidance into today's highs. The NBM 10th percentile, for example which basically has a high of 46 just about everywhere. How cold today stays will be quite dictated by how cold we get between now and sunrise and right now we may not fall as short as current values. Have thus stayed pretty close to previous forecast but may end up making an update with the 7am package should we really radiate. Our 1500ft inversion mixes out overnight and there is some warm advection noted in the boundary layer. Once again we radiate quite well and a surface-based 'skin' layer once again shows up in forecast soundings but with a slightly warmer layer atop the surface lows will not be quite as cold...generally close to 30.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Surface high over the Southeast Thu morning slips offshore during the day and into Thu night. As the high drifts east a weak coastal trough sets up, helping increase cloud cover along the coast Thu night. Appears to be too much dry air for any rain to develop before Thu night turns into Fri, but may be some faint echos offshore.
Coastal trough lifts north-northwest Fri with warm advection helping to spread warm and moist air over the region. Rain chances increase somewhat on Fri, although forcing is limited. Deep moisture arrives late afternoon and evening, pushing precipitable water to 1.5". Mid- level lapse rates do increase late in the day just as the LLJ increases to 30-35kt. Despite the environment becoming more favorable, the lack of any real forcing will keep coverage of rain to 40-60% Fri and Fri night. Highs will be near to slightly above climo Thu and Fri with lows near climo Thu night running well above Fri night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Cold front moves into the area Sat but the front lacks any significant push. The boundary ends up parallel to the flow aloft and stalls. The front remains stalled in the area through the weekend increasing rain chances. Surface waves moving along the front ramp up rain potential and amounts with late Sat into Sat night being one and potential for a second Sun morning into afternoon. It is possible the second wave on Sun ends up passing offshore, limiting rainfall for the area. The stalled front and associated rainfall is shunted east by 5h trough moving across the eastern CONUS Mon. Still a fair amount of uncertainty with respect to timing of the trough, but have high confidence in rain chances through the weekend (although the whole weekend won't be a washout).
How long rain holds on into Mon is the biggest point of uncertainty right now. The operational solutions are quick to move in the trough and its dry air Mon, but a lot of the ensemble members have the trough moving slower. Something to keep en eye on the next few days.
Temperatures well above climo through Mon night trending near climo on Tue.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR with clear skies and NE winds as high pressure moves in from the north and west.

Extended Outlook...VFR continues until Friday, when showers could lead to brief/minor flight restrictions. Periods of low clouds and showers may bring additional restrictions through the weekend.

MARINE
Through Tonight: As surface high center to the west finds its center closer to the marine zones today northerly winds diminish to 10kt or less.
Any residual swell will be negligible and so waves will be comprised of only the diminutive wind wave. Dominant periods are quite short, just 3-4 seconds so while not hazardous still not a very comfy ride for smaller vessels. The high elongates west- east tonight bringing light and variable winds and even slightly smaller seas.

Thursday through Sunday: High pressure overhead Thu will keep winds, mainly from the north, under 10 kt. The high shifts east Thu night with weak coastal trough lifting north on Fri. Once the trough lifts north, southeast winds will develop. Pinched gradient helps increase southeast winds to a solid 15 kt Fri before winds veer to south-southwest Sat. Gradient relaxes as the high shifts farther east and a weak front settles into the area, dropping speeds to 10-15 kt Sat. Front lingers in the area through Sun with southwest flow remaining 10-15 kt Sun. Seas 1-2 ft Thu into Fri increase to 3-5 ft Fri with development of enhanced southeast flow. Seas subside to 2-4 for the weekend. An east to southeast swell will be present Thu through Sun while the slightly more dominant wind wave slowly shifts from northeast Thu to east-southeast Fri and Fri night to south for the weekend.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ054-056.
NC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ106>108-110.
MARINE...None.

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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
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Wed -- 03:11 AM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:22 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:25 AM EST     5.63 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:55 PM EST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:04 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:56 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:44 PM EST     4.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina, Tide feet

Holden Beach
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Wed -- 01:58 AM EST     -0.77 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:14 AM EST     5.30 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:22 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 02:49 PM EST     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:04 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:56 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:30 PM EST     3.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Holden Beach, North Carolina, Tide feet

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