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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 611 Pm Est Sat Dec 9 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon...
.gale watch in effect from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon...
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers this evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms in the morning, then showers with a chance of tstms in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming nw 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Showers with isolated tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft after midnight.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 611 Pm Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Hazardous conditions will develop Sunday into Monday as a strong storm system affects the waters. Conditions will then improve during next week as high pressure builds back into the area.

FXUS62 KILM 092336 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 636 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

SYNOPSIS
Unseasonably warm and mainly dry weather is expected through tonight. A strong storm system will bring rain and strong winds Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure then build in for most of next week bringing cool and dry weather once again. Rain chances increase into next weekend as a storm system moves up from the south.

UPDATE
No changes to the forecast with the early evening update.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
H5 trough across the Central U.S. this afternoon will lift eastward becoming somewhat negatively tilted as it moves off the East Coast during Sunday night. This feature will drive a strong cold front across the area Sunday night and is associated with a strong low- level wind field that may become problematic if any deeper convection can develop. Thus, there is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms across the forecast area for Sunday evening supported by strong low-level winds. However, coverage of severe storms will likely be impeded given only marginal instability by that time.

Subsequent shifts may need to consider a Wind Advisory for a portion of the Cape Fear area Sunday night for gusty winds associated with the cold frontal passage. Otherwise, a continuation of above normal temperatures with lows tonight and with Sunday's highs. Could see some sea fog develop late tonight into Sunday affecting the coastal areas before the winds increase later in the morning. Another concern is the potential for minor coastal flooding across the lower Cape Fear River with high tide Sunday night given the fetch of strong southerly flow.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Big change in airmass as cold and dry high pressure builds in.
CAA will be in full force in deep W-NW flow behind exiting storm system on Mon. The 850 temps drop about 10 degrees between midnight and daybreak Mon. Dewpoint temps will drop over 30 degrees from previous day as airmass dries out with pcp water values down near a quarter of inch. Overall, cold and dry weather will arrive on Mon and remain across the area into midweek. Daytime highs will only reach the low to mid 50s both Mon and Tues and overnight lows will be down near freezing or below most places inland of the beaches.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Strong high pressure over the Great Lakes on Wed will be quite expansive, spread all the way south the Gulf Coast. In the upper levels, a fairly zonal flow becomes more amplified as a ridge builds up from the south. This will maintain dry and fairly seasonable weather with temps down in the mid to upper 30s most places for lows and up close to 60 for highs. By Thurs night into Fri, a coastal trough will become more prominent as system over the Gulf takes shape. This will increase clouds and chances of rain heading into the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR conditions expected to persist for the overnight hours and perhaps well into the day Sunday. The caveat for coastal sites is sea fog but nothing so far and high resolution guidance for what it's worth with sea fog is clear for the overnight as well.
Outside of this the synoptic system brings ugly conditions (prevailing MVFR to IFR) west to east later Sunday and overnight into the early morning hours Monday. The winds associated with the system will likely bring wind shear into the forecast in time.

Extended Outlook...MVFR to IFR ceilings expected for Sunday and Sunday night as a strong cold front moves through with some heavy showers and possible storms. LIFR conditions are possible at times until the frontal passage occurs. Winds will also be strong/gusty ahead of and behind the cold front on Sunday into Monday.

MARINE
Through Tonight...The weak coastal trough which has prevented the winds from veering around ahead of the approaching strong cold front will gradually dissipate as the synoptic flow increases. As a result, light NE-E winds this afternoon will become Sly and increase across all of the waters tonight. The advection of warm dewpoints over the relatively cool shelf waters may produce a period of sea fog later tonight into Sunday morning with VSBYs 1 nm or less at times. Then a strong low-level wind field will spread across the area as the cold front moves through which will result in Small Craft Advisory conditions developing Sunday, and potential for Gale conditions Sunday night. Plan on issuing a Gale Watch for all waters Sunday night until the picture becomes a little more clear, but in the least expect strong Small Craft conditions during that time.
Seas will increase, especially during Sunday with 5-7 footers, then 7-10 footers possible by Sunday night. Additionally, the coverage of showers will increase during Sunday and Sunday night along with the potential for some severe thunderstorms which would promote locally higher winds gusts and seas.

Monday through Thursday...Strong and gusty NW winds early Mon will diminish into the afternoon allowing seas to drop from 5 to 7 ft down below SCA thresholds. Winds will diminish and slowly veer from NW to N to NE Mon through one area of high pressure over the Carolinas weakens as stronger area of high pressure to the N-NW becomes dominant. Speed up to 25 kts initially will be down to 15 to 20 by late Mon and 15 kts or less Mon night through Thurs. A longer period SE swell will mix in.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM EST Sunday for AMZ250- 252-254-256.
Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for AMZ250-252-254-256.

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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
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Sat -- 03:39 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:10 AM EST     4.76 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:43 AM EST     0.65 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:39 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:04 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:16 PM EST     4.21 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:48 PM EST     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina, Tide feet

Holden Beach
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Sat -- 03:39 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:13 AM EST     4.51 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:31 AM EST     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:38 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:33 PM EST     3.80 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:04 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:30 PM EST     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Holden Beach, North Carolina, Tide feet

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