Wednesday, February26, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Holden Beach, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 6:06PM Wednesday February 26, 2020 5:37 AM EST (10:37 UTC) Moonrise 8:35AMMoonset 8:56PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 343 Am Est Wed Feb 26 2020
.dense fog advisory in effect until 3 pm est this afternoon...
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Thursday afternoon...
Today..SW winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Areas of dense fog this morning, then patchy fog this afternoon. A chance of showers early this morning. A chance of showers late. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Patchy fog in the evening. Showers, mainly in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
AMZ200 343 Am Est Wed Feb 26 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Humid air will produce showers and areas of sea fog today. A cold front will sweep off the carolina coast this evening. Cool and dry canadian high pressure will build across the area tonight and Thursday. Another cold front will cross the area Friday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holden Beach, NC
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location: 33.92, -78.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 260850 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 350 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

SYNOPSIS. Warm and humid air will continue today before a cold front reaches the coast this evening. Much drier and cooler air will build in overnight and Thursday as Canadian high pressure pushes in. A dry cold front will move across the Carolinas Friday. Warm, moist air returns Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/. Low stratus and fog cover most of the area this morning and should take several hours after sunrise to lift. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued along the I-95 corridor extending down into Williamsburg County, SC. We'll watch areas east of I-95 and also the beaches to see if the advisory needs to be expanded.

Our airmass is quite warm with 850 mb temps near +10C, almost at the 90th percentile value for this time of year. Dry mid-levels this morning should allow enough insolation in to lift the low stratus and let temperatures rise to near 70 degrees by early afternoon.

An upper trough digging into the southern Plains will sweep east and across the southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states tonight. Weak low pressure located across the central Appalachians this morning will begin to deepen quickly this afternoon and this evening as the upper trough approaches. A cold front extending south of the low will sweep east and across the eastern Carolinas this evening, ushering in a much cooler and drier airmass on gusty west winds. GFS and NAM forecast soundings show the potential of 30+ mph wind gusts overnight during the post-frontal cold advection. Showers should precede the front, with chances for measurable rain expected to run 50-80 percent, highest near the coast.

Canadian air will build into the Carolinas late tonight and Thursday. With clearing skies tonight's lows should fall into the lower 40s with Thursday's highs expected to reach 52-55.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Cold, dry air advection will continue into Thursday night. Breezy conditions during the day will decrease slightly as the low over southern Quebec continues to move off to the NE. This will keep winds near the surface around 5 knots and maintain a mixed SFC layer keeping temperatures right around freezing. During the day on Friday, clouds will develop across the area as a weak shortwave dives across southern Appalachia. Limited moisture in the low-levels will limit precipitation chances, but high temperatures will struggle to make it into the low-50s as a result. Cloudiness will continue Friday night as a second shortwave follows a similar path possibly keeping temperatures above freezing on Saturday morning.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Clouds will clear during the day on Saturday as the shortwave moves off to the east by Saturday afternoon. The upper-level trough providing below-normal conditions and dry air will slide off to the east as SFC high pressure builds over the Gulf of Mexico. During the day on Sunday, high pressure will dominate the weather pattern with moderating temperatures to near-normal. High pressure continues to move eastward on Monday and on Monday evening, with the high pressure offshore, southerly flow will return with warm, humid conditions flooding back into the area. A lack of deep-layer moisture and accompanying lift will keep rain chances near zero however. We are likely to see an increase in cloud cover on Tuesday with a chance of rain inland as low pressure over the central US pushes a warm front over the southeast US. Models differ on the availability of moisture and intensity of the low pressure system and this will greatly affect our rain chances. A much better chance of rain (an possibly a few rumbles of thunder) with an approaching cold front on Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Rich low level moisture will yield IFR ceilings and visibilities in most locations this morning. It will probably take until 14-15Z for conditions to improve with clearing visibility and ceilings rising to MVFR. After a few hours of relatively good flying conditions this afternoon, convective showers ahead of a cold front should overspread the area late in the day, mainly after 21Z. The cold front will push off the coast this evening around 00Z, followed by clearing skies and gusty west winds overnight into Thursday.

Extended Outlook . VFR.

MARINE. Weak low pressure across the central Appalachians is producing a light south to southwest wind across the Carolinas this morning. Increasing moisture has led to the development of sea fog, some of which should become dense this morning through early this afternoon. NWS CHS informed us of a Charleston pilot boat report of dense sea fog extending out to 15 miles from the coast, so our marine Dense Fog Advisory has been extended down to the S Santee River.

The central Appalachian low will begin to deepen late this afternoon. A cold front extending south of the low will sweep through the eastern Carolinas and offshore this evening, accompanied by showers. West winds behind this front will increase to 20-25 kt with gusts near gale force possible overnight. A Small Craft Advisory is also being issued with this forecast to cover the threat posed by increasing winds and seas tonight. Canadian air will build into the Carolinas Thursday with breezy offshore winds continuing throughout the day.

Breezy conditions on Thursday night will relax as low pressure to the NE continues to track away from the area. Seas near Small Craft Advisory levels will decrease as a result by Friday morning. On Friday night, high pressure will build over the Gulf of Mexico while a shortwave trough moves over the area leading to a brief surge in offshore wind speeds (15-20 knots) and associated significant wave heights. Conditions could be hazardous to small craft, but with the surge occurring in such a short duration, seas are likely to peak at 3-5 feet. Conditions improve after this as high pressure dominates the weather pattern into Monday. Southerly winds increase on Tuesday as the high pressure moves off the US east coast.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039. NC . Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ087. MARINE . Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ250- 252-254-256. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 PM EST Thursday for AMZ250-252-254-256.

SYNOPSIS . ILM NEAR TERM . TRA SHORT TERM . 21 LONG TERM . 21 AVIATION . TRA MARINE . TRA/21


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 8 mi30 min W 7.8 G 12 56°F 55°F1012.2 hPa
41119 8 mi48 min 55°F3 ft
SSBN7 8 mi46 min
41108 23 mi38 min 54°F6 ft
WLON7 31 mi50 min 60°F 51°F1010.1 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 34 mi50 min 60°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 37 mi50 min WNW 6 G 8.9 63°F 53°F1009.2 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi30 min WSW 7.8 G 19 57°F 54°F1010.1 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 38 mi28 min 54°F4 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 47 mi28 min W 14 G 18 70°F 69°F1010.3 hPa68°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC16 mi43 minWSW 52.50 miRain58°F57°F100%1010.8 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC20 mi45 minN 00.75 miFog/Mist59°F57°F96%1010.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS4S6S9
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE5E3CalmCalm
2 days ago------------CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:58 AM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:35 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:59 AM EST     4.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:21 PM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:06 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:56 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:08 PM EST     4.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.12.11.10.300.41.42.63.64.34.54.33.62.61.50.60.10.31.12.33.44.14.54.3

Tide / Current Tables for Tubbs Inlet, North Carolina
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Tubbs Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:18 AM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:35 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:30 AM EST     4.27 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:41 PM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:07 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:56 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:39 PM EST     4.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.41.40.50.10.20.9233.84.24.23.72.91.90.90.20.10.71.72.83.64.14.23.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.