Saturday, September18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Holden Beach, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:15PM Saturday September 18, 2021 10:33 AM EDT (14:33 UTC) Moonrise 5:26PMMoonset 3:20AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 946 Am Edt Sat Sep 18 2021
Rest of today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 946 Am Edt Sat Sep 18 2021
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Northerly flow in the exit of tropical storm odette will become weak this afternoon with diminishing seas. High pressure will build eastward across the great lakes this weekend, then will move offshore next week, maintaining light northeast winds. A cold front may reach the area late Wednesday with cooler and drier air to follow.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holden Beach, NC
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location: 33.92, -78.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 181350 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 950 AM EDT Sat Sep 18 2021

SYNOPSIS. Weak high pressure with seasonable high temperatures and above normal low temperatures will persist through the weekend. A strong cold front will move across the area Wednesday with a better chance of showers and thunderstorms, followed by cooler temperatures and drier weather Thursday and Friday.

UPDATE. No significant changes were needed to the going forecast. Dry mid level air indicated on 6.95 micron satellite imagery and the 12z GSO sounding should act to suppress convection this afternoon, although isolated showers are still expected to develop just inland from the coast across northeastern South Carolina this afternoon. Models over the past 24 hours have continued to trend downward with precipitation potential this afternoon.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. Remnant showers just offshore and to our north indicate a slow progression of a weak mid-level trough. Through mid-morning, most of the area should see clearing skies develop on the lee side of the mid-level trough with NW flow developing above 500 mb. Dry air advection above 700 mb should be the limiting factor for anything more than an isolated shower today. As Tropical Storm Odette exits the region and high pressure begins to build southward out of the Great Lakes region, northerly and NE flow develops over the Carolinas. Thus, convergence along the enhanced sea breeze this afternoon could spark a few shallow showers within the residual shallow moisture layer up to 10k feet over SC. Several of the high resolution models keep the entire area dry on Saturday and we may see the forecast trend this way if dry air can work its way eastward before destabilization.

High pressure begins to build into the area on Sunday as a backdoor cold front drops southward into VA and northeastern NC, stalling just north of our area. Easterly flow develops ahead of the front with winds increasing due to the compressed gradient. Quite a stark difference in air masses across the area with a tropical air mass from what's left of Nicholas over the deep south, leaking into southern and central SC. This air mass is separated near the NC/SC state line by a much drier air mass and high pressure to the north. Have decreased PoPs slightly over SC as the mid- level ridge axis is expected to be positioned nearly overhead during typical peak heating. Coastal areas may see a slightly enhanced chance of showers with the vigorous push of the sea breeze, but most of the forecast area will struggle to maintain shower activity with the dry air advection above the surface and strengthening inversion.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. H5-H3 ridge will be in place across the Carolinas Sunday night into Monday helping to suppress the higher PWATs west and south of the forecast area. However, moist onshore low-level flow with the large area of high pressure moving off the coast of New England may provide enough support for scattered convection. At this time, think the best rain chances would be across the southern zones Monday and Monday night. Onshore flow Monday will keep it a few degrees cooler at the coast, while inland areas are expected to reach the mid 80s, which is a few degrees above normal.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Ridging aloft will shift farther east Tuesday as a trough lifts out of the lower MS Valley. Deeper S-SWly flow will finally allow the higher PWATs shift into the Carolinas with increasing coverage expected in the air-mass ahead of the approaching strong cold front. An amplifying mid/upper trough moving out of the upper plains and across the Midwest by Tuesday night will drive the aforementioned cold front across the area during Wednesday afternoon and off the coast Wednesday night. The chance for showers/tstms will increase Wednesday as a result, however if the RRQ of the H3 jet remains just north then coverage may remain scattered this part of the Carolinas. At any rate, a cooler/drier air-mass will build across the forecast area during Thursday with clearing and diminished rain chances. The cool/dry conditions will persist into Friday as well with below normal temperatures likely.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Low stratus lingering in places will quickly break up next hour or so. Scattered to broken clouds between 4-6k ft will reside over the area most of today, with brief MVFR ceilings possible around 15z before quickly rising in height with heating. Isolated to widely scattered convection possible this afternoon across coastal NE SC, best chance near the sea breeze. Light winds out of the northeast early will turn ESE by this evening, beginning with coastal areas with sea breeze. Patchy sub-VFR visibilities again possible tomorrow morning.

Extended Outlook . Mainly VFR through the period except for periodic MVFR/IFR from isolated/scattered convection on Saturday. High pressure settles in Sunday through Tuesday.

MARINE. Through Sunday . Northerly flow continues today behind the exiting Tropical Storm Odette. As the storm continues off toward the northern Atlantic and away from the US East Coast, the gradient will weaken for a brief period as winds turn more easterly tonight. Seas 2-3 feet today, becoming around 2 feet tonight. On Sunday, high pressure builds out of the southern Great Lakes region and compresses the local gradient as NE winds develop, building to 15-20 knots. Currently expecting gusts to top-out near 20 knots. SCA conditions are not expected at this time. A combination of easterly swell and the increasing NE winds will cause seas to build 3-4 feet.

Sunday night through Thursday . High pressure ridging southward into the Carolinas from New England Sunday night will move off the coast during Monday. This will allow for an uptick in Ely flow Monday through Tuesday. However, winds will veer as a strong cold front approaches from the west Tuesday night into Wednesday. There has been run to run consistency with this boundary moving across the waters Wednesday night. N-NEly flow will prevail in its wake Wednesday night into Thursday. GEFS 20 knot probability is around 30-50% for Thursday, so it's not entirely out of the question that a brief period of Small Craft thresholds could follow the front. Regarding seas, 4 footers appear reasonable in the large Ely fetch Monday into Tuesday, then potentially 4-6 footers across the outer waters during Thursday in the wake of the cold front.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . ILM UPDATE . TRA NEAR TERM . 21 SHORT TERM . SRP LONG TERM . SRP AVIATION . VAO MARINE . 21/SRP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 8 mi26 min NE 7.8 G 12 76°F 82°F1021.2 hPa
SSBN7 8 mi77 min 81°F1 ft
41108 23 mi64 min 81°F2 ft
MBIN7 29 mi34 min ENE 8 G 13 78°F 1019.2 hPa (+1.1)
WLON7 31 mi46 min 82°F 81°F1019.9 hPa
MBNN7 34 mi34 min ENE 7 G 11 79°F 1019.7 hPa (+1.1)
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 34 mi46 min 78°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 37 mi46 min NNE 12 G 14 77°F 80°F1019.4 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi26 min NE 12 G 16 77°F 80°F1020.1 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 38 mi27 min 80°F2 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 46 mi34 min NNE 12 G 16 79°F 83°F1019.1 hPa74°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC16 mi39 minNE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy80°F67°F65%1020 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC20 mi41 minNNE 610.00 miA Few Clouds80°F72°F76%1019.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N4N7W6SE3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmN4N3N3NE4NE5E6
1 day agoNE6NE8N9NE8E8E8
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CalmCalmN3N4N4N3N4NW4N4NW5N5N5N5N4N5N5N4
2 days agoE7SE5CalmS4SE3S4CalmSE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3N3N4N9N9
G14

Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
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Sat -- 01:07 AM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:58 AM EDT     4.95 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:18 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:33 PM EDT     5.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.50.81.72.83.94.74.94.73.92.91.80.80.30.51.32.53.955.75.75.24.22.9

Tide / Current Tables for Tubbs Inlet, North Carolina
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Tubbs Inlet
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Sat -- 12:27 AM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:29 AM EDT     4.67 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:38 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:04 PM EDT     5.47 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.61.32.23.24.14.64.64.13.22.21.10.40.30.91.93.14.35.15.55.24.43.32

Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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