Sunrise 6:21 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 12:47 AM   Moonset 10:37 AM

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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 144 Pm Edt Tue Apr 30 2024
This afternoon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. Tonight - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 12 seconds. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning. Wed night - SW winds 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. Thu - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Thu night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Fri - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Sat - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Sat night - SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 144 Pm Edt Tue Apr 30 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - High pressure will anchor off the southeastern us coast for the majority of this week. An upper level disturbance will move across the region tonight into Wednesday. High pressure will return for the end of the week.

FXUS62 KILM 301923 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 323 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak front will bring a few showers and isolated thunderstorms this evening and overnight as well as into Wednesday. Warm and dry air returns Thursday and Friday before another frontal boundary keeps the late week and weekend unsettled, though no given day a washout.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A mid-level shortwave trough is evident in moisture channel imagery over the southeast US with its trough axis over the Tennessee Valley and shifting eastward. Meanwhile, scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen downstream from this trough centered over the Augusta, GA vicinity and tracking generally ENE. Lift associated with the shortwave will enter the region from the west this evening, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to western areas.
However, with the loss of daytime heating, instability will decrease and this should lead to an overall weakening of activity as it tracks eastward overnight. Where heavier rain soaks the ground, partial clearing may lead to areas of fog or low clouds late tonight, especially in the western zones. With the trough axis shifting overhead by 12Z Wednesday, shower activity should largely come to an end by rush hour. Morning lows in the low-mid 60s are expected, modulated mainly by cloud cover and rainfall.

On Wednesday, a surface trough is expected to settle over the area by midday, with W to NW flow near I-95 and SW flow near the coast ahead of the sea breeze. Diurnal heating of a moist airmass should yield weak to moderate instability across the coastal zones inland of the sea breeze and east of the surfaec trough by early afternoon.
Although the location of the shortwave will lead to mid-level subsidence and drying which should limit overall coverage of convection, lift along the sea breeze should yield isolated to perhaps scattered convection during the afternoon. Effective shear magnitudes still appear modest in the 15-25 kt range while DCAPE values may reach up to 1000 J/kg late in the day. Thus, while locally strong wind gusts remain a possibility with the strongest storms, organized convection is not anticipated. High temps should reach the low-mid 80s, warmest around I-95.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Heights recovering Wednesday night following Wednesday's shortwave, the main mid level ridge once again ready to build overhead. Expect quiet weather through the period with mild nights and an afternoon with highs about a category above climatology.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Dry and warm weather lasts into Friday as upper ridge still in control, though it will be moving east. A few storms should pop in the Carolinas but remain to our west. Not so on Saturday as some mid level impulses start flowing through the local mid level flow while a surface boundary stalls somewhere from NE NC to Upstate SC.
The most widespread and heavy activity will be near the front but we can expect more scattered coverage locally, the least coverage along the immediate coast where marine air could lead to zero coverage. There will be little to push this boundary anywhere on Sunday, which may then offer up similar rain chances/distribution.
Heights recover Monday and Tuesday and the precip coverage should wane especially as the front washes out. The previous days convection will have left behind mesoscale boundaries that should still support isolated coverage.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR is expected to dominate through the remainder of the daylight hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move in from the west this evening and move east overnight, gradually weakening as they trek towards the coast. Shower activity should move offshore late in the night or soon after sunrise tomorrow. The potential exists for relatively brief MVFR/IFR visibility and ceilings within stronger convection this evening and tonight, with moderate chances at KFLO, lower chances at KLBT, and minimal chances at the coastal terminals. A period of MVFR cigs may develop over KFLO late in the night, but confidence was too low to include at this time. Otherwise, VFR is expected tomorrow morning, with at least isolated sea breeze convection developing just beyond the end of the TAF period.

Extended Outlook...Transient MVFR to IFR cigs and vis in showers and storms could affect the coastal terminals Wednesday afternoon and evening, with lower chances at the inland terminals. Otherwise, VFR should dominate through the rest of the period, outside of any early-morning mist/fog each day.

MARINE
Through Wednesday... Southerly flow at 10-15 kts veers to southwesterly tonight as a surface trough approaches with scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm moving across the waters late tonight into Wednesday morning. Winds back to southerly over the coastal waters as the sea breeze gets going during the day Wednesday and should remain southerly through the daylight hours. S-SSE wind waves in the 2-3 ft range will dominate the wave spectrum, although easterly 1-2 swells at 11 sec or so will remain in play through Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Sunday... Wind quite light and variable early in the period, the previous Bermuda high-induced SWrly flow having been disrupted. SE to S winds get re-established by Friday as pressures rise offshore. Small wind waves and negligible swell will keep the dominant seas forecast capped at 2 ft early, opening up to 2-3 later in the period.



ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
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Tue -- 01:24 AM EDT     4.94 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:12 AM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:46 PM EDT     4.01 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:11 PM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina, Tide feet

Tubbs Inlet
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Tue -- 12:55 AM EDT     4.66 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:32 AM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:17 PM EDT     3.78 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:31 PM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Tubbs Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

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