Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holden Beach, NC

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 7:51PM Friday August 23, 2019 8:40 PM EDT (00:40 UTC) Moonrise 11:39PMMoonset 12:55PM Illumination 40% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 602 Pm Edt Fri Aug 23 2019
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms late.
Sat..W winds 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then showers and tstms likely in the afternoon.
Sat night..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Showers. Tstms likely, mainly in the evening.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers. A chance of tstms in the morning, then tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day.
Tue..NE winds 10 kt, becoming sw. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms through the night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 602 Pm Edt Fri Aug 23 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A cold front will drop southward into the area early Saturday before stalling just offshore Sunday and Monday. Meanwhile, some slow tropical development is possible with an area of low pressure to move ne from the bahamas and florida Sunday and Monday. Mariners should Monitor the forecast closely for potential changes.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holden Beach, NC
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location: 33.92, -78.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 232346
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
746 pm edt Fri aug 23 2019

Synopsis
Scattered thunderstorms will become more numerous this weekend
as a front stalls in the area. The front will linger offshore
early next week. A tropical low may track north up through the
offshore waters of the southeast coast early next week, lifting
off to the northeast through mid week.

Update
Pop values adjusted to account for expected convective trends
through remainder of evening, no significant changes otherwise.

Near term through Saturday night
A diurnal downtrend in updraft velocities appears to be slowly
taking hold, which will reduce the threat of severe tstms. A
front to the north should fill in later with showers and
isolated tstms, but may remain north of the area much of the
overnight.

Somewhat organized afternoon convection well underway inland
should diminish in the late afternoon and early evening hours.

There should be a lull for quite sometime. Guidance shows a line
of convection coming down very late from the north with the
long advertised cold front. The trend has been for only a
glancing blow so I lowered pops some. Still expect good coverage
of showers and thunderstorms Saturday from about 1800 utc
onward. The front which will be bisecting the area by then (and
who knows how distorted from convection and a possible sea
breeze) should be the main focus. For Saturday night the front
reorganizes and slowly pushes off the coast and along with it
the higher pops.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
Main concern this period is the approaching cold front and
chances for tropical cyclone formation off the coast of the
carolinas.

Latest model runs have a frontal boundary that will stall near
or just offshore, which will bring increased chances for rain
near and along the coast, with heaviest rainfall occurring
along and east of the highway 17 corridor. Confidence is
increasing that there is a good likelihood that a tropical
system will be ongoing by Sunday into Monday and approaching the
offshore waters, which will bring increasing rough seas,
increased chances for enhanced rip current activity along area
beaches, and heavy rainfall that could bring minor flooding for
low lying and poor drainage areas.

Cool weather on tap for most locations with cool air advection
behind the frontal boundary pushing into place. Expect afternoon
high temperatures to be near to roughly 5 degrees below normal
for late august.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
Low will lift off to the northeast through mid week allowing
for some drying, but looks like another front will make its way
into the carolinas tues into wed. This front may stall out along
or near the coast as high pressure builds in behind it. This
may keep unsettled weather, especially along the coast through
mid to late week.

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
Current shower activity across our inland areas will begin to
diminish over the next few hours. Although a broken high cloud
deck is expected overnight, good chance for ifr MVFR fog at
inland sites with plenty of low level moisture and calm winds.

As cold front approaches our area overnight and stalls across
the area in the morning, expecting low level moisture to get
socked in behind the front with an MVFR cloud deck persisting
inland through tomorrow night. For coastal sites, maintaining
vfr conditions throughout TAF period. However, brief MVFR fog is
possible tomorrow morning, and MVFR stratus may make its way to
the coast tomorrow afternoon depending on how far the front
gets. Rain chances begin to increase again tomorrow morning,
with good coverage of showers and thunderstorms expected after
18z tomorrow. South-southwest winds tonight before winds calm
overnight and become north-northeasterly behind the front. Weak
east-southeasterly winds at coastal sites likely tomorrow
afternoon.

Extended... Unsettled weather with MVFR ifr possible into
Saturday with frontal system in area. Front will likely move
just off the coast into Sunday but lingering moisture likely to
lead to additional restrictions. Also watching potential
tropical system moving NE just off the coast into early next
week. Confidence low on related specifics at this time.

Marine
The summer time flow (a southerly component to
the winds) seemingly has only a few more hours in place as a cold
front will be pushing across from the north sometime Saturday. The
actual arrival time is more toward the morning but wind fields are
weak and will become somewhat distorted during the daytime hours via
convection and possibly a sea breeze. For this evening expect
southerly winds around ten knots or so. Kind of a mix Saturday but
overall expect a westerly flow then northeast Saturday night. Most
speeds quite light as well. Significant seas will be reflective of
the winds about 2-3 feet or so.

Front expected to push into the offshore waters by Sunday.

Forecast is highly dependent on track and possible development
of tropical low which is forecast to move up through the
offshore waters of the southeast coast late Sunday through
Monday. The gradient should tighten enough to produce a stiffer
northerly flow and, in return, an increase in seas. As it stands
now, seas 3 ft or less Sat night into early Sun will increase
as low makes its closest pass, possibly within 150 miles of the
carolina coast, late Sun through Monday. Wave models shows seas
up over 4 ft Sun night into mon, but this forecast could change
depending on low. NHC has been forecasting a greater chc of
development but much uncertainty still exists. This low will
lift off to the northeast Mon night into tues with an off shore
flow developing. Seas will diminish heading into mid week.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for scz054-
056.

Nc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz106-
108.

Marine... None.

Update... 08
near term... 08 shk
short term... Mck
long term... Mck
aviation... Vao
marine... Mck shk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 8 mi92 min SW 14 G 21 83°F 85°F1016.5 hPa
41119 8 mi50 min 84°F3 ft
41108 23 mi40 min 84°F3 ft
WLON7 31 mi70 min 83°F 86°F1016.4 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 34 mi70 min 80°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 37 mi70 min SW 12 G 17
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi92 min SW 18 G 23 83°F 85°F1015.7 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 38 mi60 min 85°F3 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 47 mi50 min S 14 G 16 84°F 85°F2 ft1015.6 hPa77°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC20 mi47 minW 410.00 miFair80°F73°F79%1016.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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S7SW7SW7SW7--SW8--SW6SW7SW7SW8SW7SW6SW8SW7SW8SW9
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2 days agoSW7W7SW7SW6S8--SW6SW4--------------------CalmCalm--SW9--W10
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Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
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Fri -- 12:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:36 AM EDT     4.27 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:21 AM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 01:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:22 PM EDT     4.83 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:04 PM EDT     1.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.84.24.243.32.51.710.70.81.42.53.64.44.84.84.33.62.71.91.41.21.42.1

Tide / Current Tables for Tubbs Inlet, North Carolina
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Tubbs Inlet
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Fri -- 12:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:07 AM EDT     4.03 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:41 AM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 01:53 PM EDT     4.56 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:24 PM EDT     1.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.843.93.52.81.91.20.80.71.1233.94.44.64.33.72.92.21.61.21.31.82.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.