Thursday, April22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Utting, AZ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 7:16PM Thursday April 22, 2021 7:19 AM MST (14:19 UTC) Moonrise 2:25PMMoonset 3:29AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Utting, AZ
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location: 33.95, -113.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 221210 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 510 AM MST Thu Apr 22 2021

UPDATE. Updated Aviation Discussion.

SYNOPSIS. A weak weather system will linger over the region today allowing for even cooler temperatures and possibly a few isolated rain showers this evening. A warming trend is then expected into the weekend with high temperatures returning to slightly above normal and more breezy to locally windy conditions. A more substantial weather system moving in for early next week will bring temperatures back down to below normal while providing fairly decent chances for rain.

DISCUSSION. Large scale troughing remains situated across the Southwestern U.S. with the main shortwave circulation slowly tracking eastward along the Utah/Arizona border while a secondary circulation is seen just west of southern California. Atmospheric moisture remains fairly limited throughout the region, but models do show a slight uptick in PWATs later today across the Lower CO River Valley into central Arizona as the trough axis finally moves through the area. This increase in moisture (mostly between 750-700mb) will also coincide with the secondary circulation moving eastward through southern California by early afternoon into southern Arizona for this evening. The GEFS still shows a small area of QPF for this evening across northern Maricopa County into the high terrain north of Phoenix with the bulk of the hi-res guidance showing scattered showers mainly staying north of Phoenix. Could very well see a few of the showers mainly over the northern Phoenix area this evening, but not expecting amounts to be much more than a trace. Temperatures today will also cool down into a 80-85 degree range, or a few degrees below normal.

Upper level ridging will take over across the region starting Friday, lasting through most of the weekend. A warming trend Friday into Saturday will push daytime highs back into the lower 90s by Saturday, likely persisting into Sunday. This weekend will also become quite breezy with afternoon gusts approaching 30 mph in some areas, creating another round of elevated fire danger conditions. The increased winds will be the result of a deep trough briefly stalling out just off the Pacific NW coast.

Model ensembles are in very good agreement showing the deep trough off the West Coast over the weekend before eventually tracking eastward through the Southwestern U.S. early next week. This weather system does look to be large enough in scale and have enough residence time over water to pick up a good amount of moisture as PWATs of around 1" are forecast to reach the southern California coast Sunday night. For our region, ensemble agreement remains quite high for the system progressing through Monday into Tuesday. Some timing differences remain, but there is now better consensus with the system providing decent rain chances early next week for much of the area. The current most likely timing would bring the best rain chances during the latter half of Monday with lingering chances across Arizona into Tuesday. As expected with April weather systems, potential rainfall amounts are rather light with both the GEFS and EPS showing around 0.1-0.2" for the Phoenix area and lighter amounts over the western deserts. Latest QPF amounts over the high terrain north of Phoenix show up to 0.5". Any thunderstorm chances are likely to fall on Tuesday as the timing of the trough shifts colder air aloft over the area. We should also see much cooler temperatures starting Monday with highs likely dipping into the mid to upper 70s. The below normal temperatures are however likely to be short-lived as strong ridging behind the system should push daytime highs back into the 90s by late next week.

AVIATION. Updated at 1200Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

Light easterly component winds will start the period before a significantly earlier than normal switch to the west by mid morning occurs. Wind speeds will increase in strength by early to mid afternoon with gusts in the mid teens to low 20s through early evening. Thursday night, a trailing embedded weather disturbance may generate some isolated weak showers over northern and eastern portions of metro Phoenix. The probability of the occurrence of such showers within the VCNTY of the TAF sites remains too low to reflect in the TAFs at this time. Skies will be mostly clear into the afternoon with FEW-SCT high clouds. An increase in FEW- SCT low-mid cloud decks is anticipated this evening along with possible BKN low clouds near 7-8 kft passing through in late evening or tonight for the N-NE Phoenix Metro including KSDL and KDVT.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

West to southwest flow will dominate the area today. Breezy westerly winds favored at KIPL this morning with gusty sundowner winds anticipated for this evening. Gusts into the mid 20s will be possible by this evening. Winds at KBLH will be light and variable with breezy southwesterly winds beginning late afternoon to early evening with some gusts into the low 20s. Skies will be mostly clear with occasional FEW high clouds passing overhead.

FIRE WEATHER. Saturday through Wednesday: A warming trend into the weekend will bring temperatures to slightly above normal, while winds increase with daytime gusts possible above 25 mph. Min RHs will also drop below 15% starting Saturday and into the single digits by Sunday, creating elevated fire danger conditions as the low RHs combine with gusty winds. A pattern shift for early next week will then bring unsettled weather for Monday and Tuesday with chances for wetting rains over the high terrain and possibly across some of the lower deserts. Higher moisture levels early next week will improve RHs, while temperatures fall to below normal.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . None. CA . Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for CAZ562.



DISCUSSION . Kuhlman AVIATION . Sawtelle FIRE WEATHER . Kuhlman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Blythe, Blythe Airport, CA50 mi28 minN 310.00 miFair55°F41°F59%1008.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLH

Wind History from BLH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS14S19SW18
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SW19S15S7S5S10E3CalmSE3S3CalmCalmN3
1 day agoCalmCalmS7Calm5S14
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2 days agoE3SW4S3CalmNW333Calm3NE8SE10SE6S6S8W5--S4SW8SE4NE3N7NW3N4N5

Tide / Current Tables for
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GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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