Wednesday, September23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Utting, AZ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 6:33PM Wednesday September 23, 2020 12:12 PM MST (19:12 UTC) Moonrise 1:26PMMoonset 11:28PM Illumination 40% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Utting, AZ
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location: 33.95, -113.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 231714 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1014 AM MST Wed Sep 23 2020

UPDATE. Updated Aviation Discussion.

SYNOPSIS. Dry conditions can be expected across the forecast area Wednesday through Tuesday. High temperatures will fluctuate during that time but remain at least several degrees above normal. The hottest days will likely be Monday and Tuesday of next week with readings very close to to the records for those dates.

DISCUSSION. Current water vapor imagery shows a shortwave progressing through Arizona while dry air advects into the region. Objective analysis shows lingering moisture confined to the Colorado Plateau and far southern Arizona, while surface dew points have dipped into the forties across much our forecast area. Clear skies and additional drying will allow morning temps to cool into the 70s for many places. However, afternoon temperatures will climb 2-5 degrees above normal. The latest available HREF shows showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon near the Mogollon Mountains of western New Mexico with only a very minimal chance for activity developing farther west into the White Mountains or far eastern Gila County.

Very warm and dry conditions will be the theme of the forecast as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Desert Southwest the next several days. A very minor shortwave will brush by on Friday, temporarily hindering the ridge, before atmospheric heights rise rapidly Sunday/Monday as depicted by global ensemble guidance. By Monday afternoon, ensemble guidance generally shows the ridge setting up slightly to our northwest with maximum H5 heights of 594-595 dm centered near the southern portion of the Great Basin. There is some uncertainty as to how far outward those heights will extend, but guidance provides confidence that our forecast area will see H5 heights somewhere between 590-594 dm, which places near the 99th percentile of climatology.

The latest forecast package for high temps is derived primarily from the NBM with an added tilt towards a 75th percentile blend from other guidance. In the end, we are still looking at highs of 105-107 for the Phoenix area Sun-Wed, while Yuma and El Centro will bake near 110. Monday and Tuesday seem to be the hottest days within that stretch, and adding a degree or two to the forecast is not out of the question if the ridge slightly outperforms current trends and/or if the ridge centers slightly closer to Arizona.

The NWS Experimental HeatRisk tool shows widespread Moderate Risk with large chunks of High Risk categories beginning Sunday which could lead to a late season issuance of an Excessive Heat Watch and/or Warning within the next day or two. Phoenix is well past the latest 110 day on record (Sep 19th) but 110s have occurred as late as October 1st and 2nd for El Centro and Yuma, respectively. With the onset of shorter fall days and less daytime heating, one would think (hope) Phoenix would be hard pressed to see that temperature mark this late.

AVIATION. Updated at 1714Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Dry conditions expected through the TAF period with mostly sunny skies. A FEW cumulus around 12 kft AGL may linger through the day. Winds will favor typical diurnal tendencies through the period with afternoon breezes into the mid-teens. Otherwise, wind speeds will remain aob 8 kts with winds becoming light and variable at times.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: There are no major aviation weather concerns expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will follow typical diurnal trends with speeds generally remaining aob 8 kts and periods of variability. Skies will stay mostly clear, outside of some haziness due to distant fires.

FIRE WEATHER. Friday through Tuesday: No change in the current forecast . Dry conditions will remain in place with temperatures well above normal. The warmest days will be Monday and Tuesday of next week with highs very close to the records for those dates. Min RH values will generally be 10-15% for most places (including higher terrain) through the weekend before dipping to single digit values early next week (10%-12% higher terrain). Max RH values will be 25%-35% for most lower deserts through the weekend (35%-50% for portions of Imperial County, southern Yuma County, and higher terrain of Gila County). Max RH declines some early next week - most noticeably for the aforementioned areas that had locally higher values during the weekend. Winds will generally be light and follow familiar diurnal patterns.

CLIMATE…

Record high temperatures:

Date Phoenix Yuma El Centro ----- ----------- -------- ----------- 9/27 107 in 2009 111 in 1963 111 in 2009 9/28 108 in 1992 108 in 1994 109 in 2009 9/29 107 in 2003 110 in 1980 110 in 1969 9/30 107 in 2010 109 in 2012 108 in 2015

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . None. CA . None.

DISCUSSION . AD AVIATION . Smith/Benedict/Feldkircher FIRE WEATHER . AJ CLIMATE . AD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Blythe, Blythe Airport, CA50 mi20 minN 010.00 miFair97°F45°F17%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLH

Wind History from BLH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S11S13
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SW9S4SW3SW5W5S6SW8E5S5--------------CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSE7SW11SW12S12S11SE9S7S8S7S7S6CalmS6S9S10S6CalmN5NW6N4NE4SE3CalmS4
2 days agoS9
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S10S9S7S9S6SW5SW5----S3E4Calm--N6N7N5SE5S9S9S9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Yuma, AZ
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