Saturday, April4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Utting, AZ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 7:02PM Saturday April 4, 2020 8:34 PM MST (03:34 UTC) Moonrise 3:16PMMoonset 4:21AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Utting, AZ
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location: 33.95, -113.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 050000 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 500 PM MST Sat Apr 4 2020

UPDATE. Updated Aviation Discussion.

SYNOPSIS. Slightly above normal temperatures are expected through Sunday followed by at or below normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday. A slow-moving weather system will bring cooler temperatures, breezy conditions, and chances for rain by the middle of next week. Temperatures in the lower deserts may even fall below 70 degrees on Thursday. Overall, the weather system is expected to be low impact with light rainfall amounts. The system will begin exiting the area Friday and temperatures return to normal by next weekend.

DISCUSSION. Upper air analysis puts the region under dry quasi-zonal flow this afternoon with modest west-southwest flow. Benign weather with warm temperatures, a couple of degrees above normal, in the low to mid 80s will continue through the rest of this weekend across the lower deserts. On satellite, the subtropical jet is noted well south of the region in Mexico. Also noted, is an upper low currently a few hundred miles off the coast of British Columbia which will descend south along the west coast and impact southern CA and the Desert SW weather for much of next week.

Sunday into early next week, as the upper low drops south along the coast, the flow pattern will become more southwesterly and H5 heights will gradually fall. Temperatures should drop a couple of degrees Monday and Tuesday, to or slightly below normal, as a result. With the southwesterly flow and approaching system, breezier afternoon/evening conditions are expected as well. The first couple of days of next week, the CWA will see little if any impacts from the upper low. Moisture levels associated with the low have trended upward, but forecast soundings continue to show most of the moisture will be focused in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere. With the positive tilt of the low and southwest steering flow, guidance has been consistent in showing a strong rain shadow effect in southern CA, with most of the rain falling on the windward side of the SoCal mountains. Parts of Joshua Tree National Park, however, may see rain start to fall as early as midday Monday.

As the closed low pushes close to the San Diego area Wednesday, flow will become more southerly and difluent across the region. This will promote better moisture flux into the region and lead to increasing chances for rain across southeastern CA and most of AZ. Best chances for rain in central AZ look to be Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as the low starts to progress inland. There is still notable differences in the progression timeline of the low, with the ECMWF significantly slower than the GFS, but the GFS looks to be an outlier as the GEFS mean is at least trending toward the slower ECMWF solution. So, continuing to lean on the ECMWF timeline, and more so the EPS mean, which has the closed low becoming an open wave again and pushing east of the area Friday, but with lingering showers still possible.

Moisture is still not great across the interior deserts with this system, but with the trend upward QPF amounts have also trended up slightly. Highest rainfall amounts are likely to stick to parts of southeastern CA, western AZ, and the high terrain of central AZ, north of Phoenix, with anywhere from 0.5" to 0.75". GEFS mean for Phoenix trended up and is now similar to the EPS mean with around 0.3". The thunderstorm threat potential still looks minimal, with little CAPE, but any storm or stronger shower could lead to isolated high amounts. The best storm chance will be on Wednesday.

Besides the rain, this will be a cold system with temperatures falling well below normal, with highs only in the 70s across the lower deserts Wednesday through Friday. High temperatures even look to dip below 70 degrees on Thursday with the cold core of the low over the area. A few of the highest spots in the CWA, like western JTNP and Hilltop in Gila county could see a few flakes fly with this system, but no accumulation is anticipated at this time. Temperatures should bounce back up into the 80s by next weekend following the system.

AVIATION. Updated at 0000Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT.

West/southwest winds this afternoon will become breezy at times with a few gusts into the teens possible. Afternoon gusts taper off by this evening as daytime mixing comes to an end. Winds then transition to the east between 08Z and 10Z, with speeds remain below 8 kts. By late tomorrow morning, winds begin to veer toward the south becoming southwesterly by early afternoon. Southwesterly winds tomorrow afternoon will be breezy with gusts upwards of 20 kts. Otherwise, clear skies will continue through the TAF period.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Breezy to windy westerly winds, with gusts upwards of 25 kts, will continue at KIPL through the remainder of today before gusts taper off by tomorrow morning. Westerly winds continue through the overnight hours before gusts pick up again tomorrow afternoon. At KBLH, winds will favor a southerly component through the TAF period with gusts upwards of 22 kts this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, clear skies will continue through the next 24 hours.

FIRE WEATHER. Monday through Friday: A low pressure system will move from west to east across the region beginning Monday. A gradual cooling trend will occur eventually lowering desert highs into the upper 60s to near 70 in the far west, and the mid 70s in central areas by Wednesday, and even cooler by Thursday. Showers including a slight chance of wetting rains over SE CA early in the week will gradually spread to central and eastern areas on Wednesday through Friday. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible. Min RH values in the teens in central and eastern areas on Monday, and above 20 percent in the west areas will improve to above 20 percent in all areas by Tuesday and remain that way through the end of the period. Although winds should not get overly strong during the period, each day will result in locally breezy west to southwest winds across much of the districts mainly during afternoon hours.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . None. CA . None.

DISCUSSION . Benedict AVIATION . Smith FIRE WEATHER . Sawtelle


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Blythe, Blythe Airport, CA50 mi42 minSSW 1210.00 miFair76°F36°F23%1005.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLH

Wind History from BLH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6W8SW8S7S7S7W6N4N3CalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE9SE7S12SW12
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1 day agoN8N8NW7NW3NW3W6NW73W8W6W8NW35N8N4--NE3Calm6S5CalmSE4E5SE4
2 days agoSW16S18S11S11S7S7S9SW5NW4NW6N4CalmSW5SW34CalmNE8CalmE76----N9N7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Yuma, AZ
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.