Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Utting, AZ
May 9, 2024 10:28 AM MST (17:28 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:37 AM Sunset 7:29 PM Moonrise 6:32 AM Moonset 9:45 PM |
FXUS65 KPSR 091713 AFDPSR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1013 AM MST Thu May 9 2024
UPDATE
Updated 18z Aviation Discussion...
SYNOPSIS
Trending towards tranquil weather conditions is the overall outlook for the Desert Southwest over the next several days.
Residual afternoon breeziness will linger into the weekend, ahead of much calmer conditions heading into next week. Below normal temperatures will trend warmer over the next few days, with increasing chances for triple digit high temperatures across the lower deserts heading into next week.
DISCUSSION
Clear skies continue to persist, with upper level troughing across western CONUS bringing more west to east flow across the region early this morning. This longwave trough will continue to linger across the region, but weaken over the next few days, resulting in temperatures moderating going through the weekend. A weak jet at the base of the trough will continue to result in afternoon breeziness, especially across the higher terrain of southcentral Arizona going through Saturday.
Strong ridging in the Pacific Northwest region will slowly bring somewhat higher heights to the Desert Southwest through late weekend, bringing a return of above normal temperatures into early next week. The likelihood of the next 100 degree day will increase with each day, with the first reasonable chance (50-70%) for 100 being out across the lower Colorado River Valley as early as Sunday (also, would be Moderate HeatRisk conditions for this area).
Chances will continue to increase for the Phoenix area into early next week, with a 30-50% chance of 100 degree highs as early as Monday. The one caveat to keep an eye on, is ensemble guidance continues to linger negative to neutral height anomalies across the Desert Southwest through mid- week, so should the troughiness end up being deeper than advertised, then triple digit high potential may be delayed until late next week.
Speaking of the middle to later portions of next week, ensemble clustering show considerable spread, as the evolution of the aforementioned trough will determine the magnitude of the warming trend during this period. However, there is a signal of more robust ridging building across the region late week, so temperatures topping the century mark would have a much higher likelihood should that scenario come to fruition. For now, the NBM deterministic forecast shows warming through Sunday, with highs hovering right near 100 degrees for the lower deserts through the early and middle portions of next week. Rain chances are essentially zero through the forecast period, but an increase in moisture starting Sunday and lingering into the middle of next week are expected to result in increasing clouds in the higher terrain during the daytime hours.
AVIATION
Updated at 1710Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major aviation weather concerns under clear skies are expected through the TAF period. Wind pattern will continue to exhibit diurnal tendencies, with westerly winds through this evening before switching out of the east around or just after midnight.
Afternoon gusts upwards of 20 kts are likely before diminishing by this evening.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation weather concerns under clear skies are expected through the TAF period. At KIPL, light west to north winds with speeds aob 6 kts can be expected. At KBLH, winds will generally be out of the northwest with some afternoon gusts upwards of 20 kts expected before diminishing by this evening.
FIRE WEATHER
Typical springtime breeziness with afternoon and early evening wind gusts of 20-25 mph will persist through the weekend. These breezy conditions combined with dry fine fuels, and low RHs will likely create some elevated fire weather conditions. MinRHs will be in the 5-10% across the lower deserts and in the 10-15% range across the higher terrain. Overnight recovery will be poor and in the 20-40% range. Seasonal temperature continue through Friday before a gradual warming trend sets in this weekend and continues into next week. Dry conditions will also persist into next week.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1013 AM MST Thu May 9 2024
UPDATE
Updated 18z Aviation Discussion...
SYNOPSIS
Trending towards tranquil weather conditions is the overall outlook for the Desert Southwest over the next several days.
Residual afternoon breeziness will linger into the weekend, ahead of much calmer conditions heading into next week. Below normal temperatures will trend warmer over the next few days, with increasing chances for triple digit high temperatures across the lower deserts heading into next week.
DISCUSSION
Clear skies continue to persist, with upper level troughing across western CONUS bringing more west to east flow across the region early this morning. This longwave trough will continue to linger across the region, but weaken over the next few days, resulting in temperatures moderating going through the weekend. A weak jet at the base of the trough will continue to result in afternoon breeziness, especially across the higher terrain of southcentral Arizona going through Saturday.
Strong ridging in the Pacific Northwest region will slowly bring somewhat higher heights to the Desert Southwest through late weekend, bringing a return of above normal temperatures into early next week. The likelihood of the next 100 degree day will increase with each day, with the first reasonable chance (50-70%) for 100 being out across the lower Colorado River Valley as early as Sunday (also, would be Moderate HeatRisk conditions for this area).
Chances will continue to increase for the Phoenix area into early next week, with a 30-50% chance of 100 degree highs as early as Monday. The one caveat to keep an eye on, is ensemble guidance continues to linger negative to neutral height anomalies across the Desert Southwest through mid- week, so should the troughiness end up being deeper than advertised, then triple digit high potential may be delayed until late next week.
Speaking of the middle to later portions of next week, ensemble clustering show considerable spread, as the evolution of the aforementioned trough will determine the magnitude of the warming trend during this period. However, there is a signal of more robust ridging building across the region late week, so temperatures topping the century mark would have a much higher likelihood should that scenario come to fruition. For now, the NBM deterministic forecast shows warming through Sunday, with highs hovering right near 100 degrees for the lower deserts through the early and middle portions of next week. Rain chances are essentially zero through the forecast period, but an increase in moisture starting Sunday and lingering into the middle of next week are expected to result in increasing clouds in the higher terrain during the daytime hours.
AVIATION
Updated at 1710Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major aviation weather concerns under clear skies are expected through the TAF period. Wind pattern will continue to exhibit diurnal tendencies, with westerly winds through this evening before switching out of the east around or just after midnight.
Afternoon gusts upwards of 20 kts are likely before diminishing by this evening.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation weather concerns under clear skies are expected through the TAF period. At KIPL, light west to north winds with speeds aob 6 kts can be expected. At KBLH, winds will generally be out of the northwest with some afternoon gusts upwards of 20 kts expected before diminishing by this evening.
FIRE WEATHER
Typical springtime breeziness with afternoon and early evening wind gusts of 20-25 mph will persist through the weekend. These breezy conditions combined with dry fine fuels, and low RHs will likely create some elevated fire weather conditions. MinRHs will be in the 5-10% across the lower deserts and in the 10-15% range across the higher terrain. Overnight recovery will be poor and in the 20-40% range. Seasonal temperature continue through Friday before a gradual warming trend sets in this weekend and continues into next week. Dry conditions will also persist into next week.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.
Yuma, AZ,
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