Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Utting, AZ

DISCUSSION
Mid-lvl WV imagery and 500 mb streamline analysis reveals a ridge of high pressure firmly entrenched across the Desert Southwest.
Troughing offshore over the eastern Pacific is resulting in a narrow fetch of high clouds passing through the Great Basin region. We will begin to see the slow migration of the aforementioned trough into the interior western U.S. over the next several days which will finally shunt the stubborn ridge of high pressure eastward and mark the beginning of a cooling trend into early next week. Despite this cooling trend, record setting high temperatures will still be possible in the Phoenix Metro through at least Monday.

Through this weekend, 500 mb heights will hover around 588 dam, or above 90% of climatology for this time of year. This will equate to well above normal temperatures across the lower deserts with highs peaking around 100-105 degrees. Today’s record high of 102 degrees in Phoenix is again in jeopardy of being broken. As heights aloft begin to weaken due to the approaching trough off the Pacific coast, temperatures will tick down by a couple of degrees Saturday and Sunday, however daily highs are still expected to be around 10-12 degrees above average both days.

Early next week we will begin to see a weak cutoff low developing over the Great Basin region which will in turn help to weaken the overall ridging pattern across the Desert Southwest. Due to the presence of the shortwave trough/cutoff low, 500 mb heights are expected to decrease to around 582-585 dam Monday and Tuesday which will aid in further cooling of temperatures down to around 100 degrees or lower across south-central AZ. Therefore, we may see the streak of record setting high temperatures in Phoenix come to an end by Monday.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A significant pattern change looks more or less certain at this point going through the latter portions of next week. A strong low over the Gulf of Alaska will dig southward and progress eastward into the Pacific Northwest by Wednesday, with the main ridge axis shifting east of Arizona, signifying the start of a much more noticeable cooling trend going through the latter portions of next week. Negative height anomalies will encompass the region by Thursday, as the main trough axis traverses across the Desert Southwest going into the weekend. This will cool temperatures more towards seasonable levels, as highs across the lower deserts dip into the upper 80s to low 90s going into next week.

With this troughing feature, we can expect to see some more widespread breezy conditions developing late next week across the region, particularly noticeable in the favored higher terrain areas. This general timing seems to be a good approximation at this point, as there remains some differences amongst the ensembles on how quickly this trough progresses eastward across western CONUS. Otherwise, the consensus on rain potential remains relatively low (no more than 10-20%, favoring higher terrain areas of south-central Arizona), as most solutions indicate a trough movement that won’t result in a significant increase in moisture levels to support more widespread rain potential. Going into next weekend, more progressive flow looks to be the trend, with warming temperatures.


AVIATION
Updated at 0500Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

No significant weather issues will exist through Friday night with occasional mid/high cloud decks. Timing of wind shifts will be nearly identical to the past 24 hours with an easterly component switching back to W/SW mid afternoon. Speeds should remain below 10kt.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No major weather issues will exist through Friday night under occasional passing high cirrus decks. Wind trends will be very close to the past 24 hours with extended periods of light and variable character common.


FIRE WEATHER
Strong high pressure will remain prominent over the region through the weekend allowing for unseasonably hot and dry conditions. Daily highs will continue to run around 10 degrees above normal through Sunday. A gradual cooling trend will transpire into early next week, with temperatures possibly cooling to near normal by the middle to latter portions of next week.
Daily minimum humidity values between 5-10% can be expected across the lower deserts and 10-15% over higher terrain areas. Winds will continue to be light over the next several days, following typical diurnal patterns, although an uptick in breeziness can be expected across the western zones on Saturday.


CLIMATE

Record highs through Monday:

Date Phoenix Yuma El Centro ---- ------- ---- --------- Oct 11 102 in 1991 107 in 1950 106 in 1995 Oct 12 103 in 1950 109 in 1950 106 in 1965 Oct 13 101 in 1989 105 in 1958 104 in 1999 Oct 14 100 in 2020 105 in 1961 104 in 2020




PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.