Wednesday, February19, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Utting, AZ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 6:25PM Wednesday February 19, 2020 7:50 AM MST (14:50 UTC) Moonrise 4:46AMMoonset 2:52PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Utting, AZ
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location: 33.95, -113.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 191117 AAA AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion . Updated National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 415 AM MST Wed Feb 19 2020

UPDATE. Updated aviation and fire weather discussions.

SYNOPSIS. Continued dry conditions and well above normal temperatures are forecast into Friday with mostly clear skies today and Thursday turning cloudy on Friday ahead of an approaching weather system. This system will likely bring light to moderate rain across much of the region Friday night and Saturday morning with lingering chances of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms through Saturday afternoon. Temperatures this weekend will fall back to near normal readings before recovering slightly into early next week.

DISCUSSION. The main forecast concern through early next week continues to be the good rain chances late Friday through much of Saturday. Until then, the region will remain under a warm air mass and westerly flow aloft. Some morning high clouds today should not stop temperatures from topping out this afternoon in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Thursday still looks to be the warmest day of the week with rising heights aloft and sunny skies boosting high temperatures into the lower 80s for a portion of the lower deserts.

Attention then turns to the deepening trough off the California coast Thursday into Friday with now better model agreement the trough should be on the deeper side leading to decent rain chances for much of the area Friday night and Saturday. There is good model consensus the trough will be deep enough to pull subtropical moisture northward out of Mexico on Friday, but there is still some uncertainty if the deepest moisture will miss our area to the southeast. Friday will still be a warm day, but clouds will be increasing throughout the day.

The main subtropical moisture plume should arrive Friday night, spreading across at least southeast Arizona, but possibly throughout most if not all of southern Arizona. This moisture surge in combination with strong isentropic ascent and increasing jet forced ascent will likely bring a decent band of northward progressing rain as early as 06Z Saturday. The best time frame for rain currently looks to fall between 09-18Z Saturday, but there is still a good amount of uncertainty as far as the positioning of the rain bands and QPF amounts. There may also be a slight chance of some elevated thunderstorms with the increasing Theta-E Friday night, but lapse rates fall by 12Z Saturday reducing any possible elevated instability. Rain chances should decrease by 18Z Saturday for most areas as a dry slot moves northeastward into southwest and south-central Arizona. Rain showers will likely continue across the high terrain north and east of Phoenix Saturday afternoon and early evening with some possibility of isolated thunderstorms due to the cold core moving northeastward through western Arizona. QPF amounts are still quite uncertain, but model ensemble members are definitely increasing the rainfall potential over the past several runs. The latest 00Z GEFS mean QPF for Phoenix and the EPS ensemble mean indicate modest QPF amounts of 0.4", but there is still a fairly high spread among the ensemble members showing amounts from a trace to 0.8". Rainfall amounts over the higher terrain north and east of Phoenix will most likely exceed 0.5" with the upper end of guidance showing over an inch will be possible.

The trough is forecast to move northeastward out of region Saturday night with increasing subsidence and drying aloft through Sunday. Heights aloft should recover fairly quickly on Sunday, but the air mass will still be somewhat cool keeping high temperatures around 70 degrees in the Phoenix area to the upper 70s across southeast California. Model spread for the first half of next week remains quite high with the bulk of the GEFS members generally showing a deep low diving southward through eastern portions of the Great Basin and the Four Corners area late on Monday into Tuesday. The Euro is considerably different as it is much weaker with the trough and thus keeps it well to our northeast. The GEFS is starting to trend more toward the Euro for early next week, so most likely temperatures will either warm slowly or be fairly stable. Either way, both solutions would still result in dry conditions.

AVIATION. Updated at 1115Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Dry westerly flow aloft will continue to spread variable amounts of high cloud across the Phoenix area this morning, with SCT-BKN decks aoa 25k feet; after that the high cloud will diminish from the west leaving generally clear skies by early this evening. Winds will continue to be very light following typical diurnal patterns with speeds mostly below 6kt. Over the western deserts, light variable will be common during the next 24 hours although winds should tend to favor the north at KBLH. There are no aviation concerns for at least the next 24 hours at any of the TAF sites.

FIRE WEATHER. Friday through Tuesday: Dry weather conditions with above normal highs will persist across the region through Friday. Humidity will start to increase on Friday, becoming highly elevated over the weekend with minimum RH values mostly 25 to 35 percent over the lower deserts. Highest humidities will be over high terrain east of Phoenix. A fast moving but wet weather system will bring widespread showers to areas east of the lower Colorado River Valley on Saturday, with a few showers in far southeast California; showers will diminish quickly from the west Saturday night with dry conditions area wide by Sunday morning. Much cooler conditions are expected over the weekend associated with the passing system, as highs fall into the upper 60s to low 70s over the cooler central deserts. Some warming is expected Monday before another cooling trend sets in again Tuesday lowering highs below seasonal normals. As for wind, we can expect breezy east wind across south central Arizona Friday, becoming breezy to windy area wide Saturday in association with a passing cold front. Winds to favor the west during the afternoon on Saturday. Winds become light across the districts Sunday but breeziness returns Monday favoring the north over the western deserts and the west into south-central Arizona. Slightly less wind expected Tuesday but still will remain locally breezy.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . None. CA . None.

DISCUSSION . Kuhlman AVIATION . CB FIRE WEATHER . Sawtelle/CB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Blythe, Blythe Airport, CA50 mi59 minN 010.00 miFair49°F21°F35%1015.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLH

Wind History from BLH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3E4E6E4N8N7N93NE3N8E6E5NW3N3NW7N6CalmCalmN5N4CalmW3CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmNE4CalmCalmSE4E4NW43NE6N3N4S5S5--NW5NW8W5N6NW5NW6N6SW3NW4N8
2 days agoN3N3CalmE443S6CalmS4SE5S7S7SW5SW6CalmE3S8E3CalmN5W3N8N7Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Yuma, AZ
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.