Tuesday, July14, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Utting, AZ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:34AMSunset 7:52PM Tuesday July 14, 2020 5:22 PM MST (00:22 UTC) Moonrise 1:03AMMoonset 2:26PM Illumination 29% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Utting, AZ
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location: 33.95, -113.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 150009 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 509 PM MST Tue Jul 14 2020

UPDATE. Updated Aviation Discussion.

SYNOPSIS. Temperatures will cool slightly with lower elevation high temperatures hovering around 110 degrees for most of the week. Showers and thunderstorms will likely remain out of the forecast for at least the next few days before storm chances improve by Thursday and beyond.

DISCUSSION.

Dry southwesterly flow aloft has taken over and will remain in place for the next few days. This pattern will reduce thunderstorm activity across the entire state relegating any substantial storm chances to far eastern AZ and along the International Border south of Tucson. The 12Z KPSR balloon sounding is showing that the PWAT has dropped down to 1.20 inches, with virtually now CAPE and lower lapse rate values through the mid-levels. Current regional 88-D radar has all convective activity suppressed well to the east and south of our CWA. Broad troughing over the northern half of the US will suppress the subtropical ridge over the Southwest causing a modest reduction in atmospheric thickness. The really good news in all of this is that we can put the recent excessive heat behind us. Afternoons will still be hot, but more typical, as forecast highs will generally hover around 110 degrees the next few days for the hottest places while overnight lows should consistently cool into the 80s.

There are signals for a more active monsoon by the second half of the week and through the weekend as ensemble guidance recenters the subtropical ridge closer to the Four Corners area. This will provide deeper southerly flow and allow richer moisture to spread into the region. Thunderstorm chances will slowly increase and spread westward each day, with more storm coverage across southeastern AZ and over the Mogollon Rim after Wednesday. The current forecast keeps PoPs over the lower desert, including the Phoenix area, fairly low at or below 15% on any particular day. However, this setup would be favorable for disturbances in the upper levels, such as inverted troughs/easterly waves, to provide the dynamics needed for convection in the lower desert. Even though identifying any of specific disturbances, let alone the timing of such phenomena, with any prodigious precision this far in advance is questionable, it would not be surprising to see enough elements align to where many areas see their first real action of the monsoon sometime between Thursday and early next week. Right now, looks like the best chance for lower desert thunderstorms activity will be in the Fri/Sat timeframe, with slightly lower chances for Sun/Mon.

Expect the typical threats with any thunderstorms that do eventually develop to include strong winds, localized heavy rain and intense lightning. Outflows will also have the potential to create blowing dust hazards, especially if they travel through the typical dust prone areas south of the Phoenix area.

An even greater threat for convective activity now appears on tap for the middle part of next week. Latest EPS/GEFS model guidance is indicating that the main upper-level high center will finally reposition itself over the central Rockies/Plains, with deep SE-ly flow developing over the region. The combination of this favorable mid-level flow along with a series of inverted trofs moving across northern Mexico will likely allow deep moisture to move into the region by next Tue/Wed. The operational ECMWF is showing PWATS as high as 2.0 inches by next Wed across the lower deserts, which would be high enough to support widespread convective activity, if the forecast proves to be correct.

AVIATION. Updated at 0008Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

Winds will continue to favor a westerly component through this evening with periods of variability possible. A few gusts into the teens will remain a possibility over the next several hours before tapering off. Expect winds to switch to a light easterly component after 09Z with speeds generally remaining below 8 kts. Could see a period of southerly crosswinds late tomorrow morning/early afternoon, but wind speeds look to mostly remain below 8 kts. Winds veer toward the west early afternoon. There is a non-zero chance for a weak southeasterly outflow making it into the metro early tomorrow evening. However, confidence in this occurring is very low at this time. Otherwise, FEW-SCT mid and high clouds aoa 12 kft will continue throughout the TAF period.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Breezy conditions are expected through this evening at both TAF sites. Winds at KIPL will favor a west to southwest component through much of the next 24 hours with gusts upwards of 22 kts through the evening hours. At KBLH, winds will favor a south/southwest component through the period with gusts upwards of 20 kts possible over the next several hours. Otherwise, periods of FEW-SCT mid and high clouds will be possible at times throughout the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER. Friday through Tuesday: Moisture levels will increase to provide at least a slight chance for showers/thunderstorms, especially over the higher terrain north and east of Phoenix. Outflow winds, even from distant storms, will be a concern most days. Otherwise, daytime RH values will be in the 10-20% range for most places while overnight recoveries rise into the 30-50% range. Outside of any thunderstorms, winds will follow diurnal/terrain driven trends with typical afternoon breeziness.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . None. CA . None.

DISCUSSION . AD/Percha AVIATION . Smith FIRE WEATHER . AD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Blythe, Blythe Airport, CA50 mi31 minWSW 16 G 2410.00 miMostly Cloudy112°F28°F6%1004.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLH

Wind History from BLH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW15SW13SW18
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1 day agoS5SW13SW14SW15SW12S5S5S13S10S9S7S4S53S9S14S11S17S16SW16S14
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2 days agoS14S12S6SW7SW15S9S5S8S6S10W5SW6CalmS6NW5SE7S7SE8SE5CalmSE9SE6S7SE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Yuma, AZ
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.