Marine Weather and Tides
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
|Sunrise 6:17AM||Sunset 7:02PM||Saturday April 4, 2020 8:58 AM MST (15:58 UTC)||Moonrise 3:16PM||Moonset 4:21AM||Illumination 88%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Utting, AZHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KPSR 041253 AFDPSR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 553 AM MST Sat Apr 4 2020
UPDATE. Updated Fire Weather Discussion.
SYNOPSIS. Temperatures will be at or above above normal through the weekend. A gradual pattern change will unfold next week as a low pressure system slowly approaches and then passes through the region. Precipitation chances start over southeast California on Monday and eventually overspread Arizona in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame. Rainfall, if any, is anticipated relatively modest. There will be a cooling trend as well with high temperatures on the lower deserts down to the low 70s by Thursday.
DISCUSSION. The upper air analysis shows a broad UL trough across the western half of the CONUS with dry W-NW flow aloft. IR satellite indicated clear skies across the region with a NE PAC low pressure circulation offshore from the CA-OR border. Dry W and then SW flow aloft will dominate the region this weekend and into the early part of next week. As a result near to slightly above normal high temperatures in the low to mid 80s will prevail for S-Central AZ through early next week.
Meanwhile models show a positively tilted EPAC-W Coastal cutoff low pressure system descending towards the region this weekend and early next week. This will set up an overall pattern change to a much more unsettled weather regime for most of the workweek. The latest feature the ensembles are showing for this system is a very small and fleeting IVT plume just ahead of the PVA anomaly moving into SE CA and SW AZ early in the week. As a result SE CA-SW AZ showers, POPs and storm total QPF could ramp up as early as Monday night and Tuesday and linger into Wednesday. Then as the low pressure system slowly ejects during the middle of the week, showers and POPs will favor S-central AZ for the Wednesday-Friday timeframe.
With the western CWA's healthier moisture profile such as a weak IVT, vs. no IVT for central and eastern areas, and higher PW, western areas could receive more precipitation than central and eastern areas. However, in spite of the pronounced PVA anomaly and dynamical lift associated with this system, early indications are that this system will most likely lack the more rich and deep atmospheric moisture profile, and instead favor a more hit and miss, shallow and fragmented moisture field. Although, there is still considerable uncertainty and model spread on the timing, position and QPF. Ensembles show that QPF could range from less than 0.05-0.40" across the region with western areas possibly enjoying more widespread coverage. In addition, the northern fringes of the CWA and the northern half of AZ may enjoy marginally higher QPF due to possibly better proximity to wrap- around moisture and secondary PVA lobe(S) during the second half of the week. Along with scattered light to occasionally moderate showers there is also a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms, spinups and small hail during the middle and latter part of the week as the pronounced UL cold core crosses the area.
However, there is higher confidence on the cooling trend and cold air push with this system with highs only reaching the upper 60s to near 70 over SE CA by Tuesday or Wednesday, and near 70 across the lower deserts and Phoenix by Thursday.
AVIATION. Updated at 1105Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT.
Dry southwest flow aloft will persist across the greater Phoenix area over the next 24 hours; very little cloudiness will spread through the flow resulting in TAFs that are generally SKC. Winds will be generally on the light side, following typical diurnal tendencies. After 21z or 22z there may be an occasional gust into the teens but confidence is somewhat low so no gustiness was mentioned. Sustained speeds likely to be 7-11kt during the afternoon and early evening.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Dry southwest flow aloft will persist across the western deserts for at least the next 24 hours. Little if any cloudiness should spread through the flow resulting in generally SKC skies. Winds will favor the west most of the period at KIPL with speeds less than 10kt through mid afternoon and then become breezy after 21z with gusts reaching to around 25kt. Gustiness to continue into the evening with elevated west winds persisting after midnight. Wind pattern will be similar at KBLH although winds will favor south/southwest instead of the west. At this time, feel that winds will not be strong enough to cause issues with blowing dust and associated visibility restrictions.
FIRE WEATHER. Monday through Friday: A low pressure system will move from west to east across the region beginning Monday. A gradual cooling trend will occur eventually lowering desert highs into the upper 60s to near 70 in the far west, and the mid 70s in central areas by Wednesday, and even cooler by Thursday. Showers including a slight chance of wetting rains over SE CA early in the week will gradually spread to central and eastern areas on Wednesday through Friday. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible. Min RH values in the teens in central and eastern areas on Monday, and above 20 percent in the west areas will improve to above 20 percent in all areas by Tuesday and remain that way through the end of the period. Although winds should not get overly strong during the period, each day will result in locally breezy west to southwest winds across much of the districts mainly during afternoon hours.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . None. CA . None.
DISCUSSION . Sawtelle AVIATION . CB FIRE WEATHER . Sawtelle
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|Blythe, Blythe Airport, CA||50 mi||67 min||N 0||10.00 mi||Fair||58°F||46°F||65%||1008.5 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KBLH
Wind History from BLH (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||SW||SW||Calm||NE||Calm||E||N||N||N||N||NW||NW||NW||W||NW||W||W||W||NW|
|2 days ago||Calm||S||S||NE||S||S|
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GEOS Local Image of Southwest EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop
Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (11,2,3,4)(on/off)  Help
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