Sunrise 6:14 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 9:59 AM   Moonset 12:04 AM

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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 245 Pm Edt Mon May 13 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning - .
Through 7 pm - SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 1 ft at 3 seconds and se 1 ft at 8 seconds. Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms late. Tue - S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: S 6 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. Showers with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon. Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: S 6 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. A chance of tstms. Showers likely. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 5 ft at 8 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Wed night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 5 ft at 8 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Thu - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 7 seconds. Thu night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Fri - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fri night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers.Sat - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 245 Pm Edt Mon May 13 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - Showers developing to our south this evening will increase in intensity and become more widespread on Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure will build late this week ahead of a disturbance arriving next weekend.

FXUS62 KILM 132009 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 409 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will move offshore today, allowing Gulf moisture to spread northward. Widespread showers should develop late tonight and be joined by thunderstorms and areas of heavy rain on Tuesday morning as a warm front lifts through. Scattered showers and storms will remain possible through Wednesday, but dry weather is expected on Thursday as high pressure builds in.
More rain chances could develop on Friday as the next storm system approaches.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Ejecting shortwave over the southeastern US will bring deep moisture overnight. Increasing moisture and isentropic lift will bring widespread showers by Tuesday morning, increasing in intensity throughout the day. Periods of heavy rain are possible, especially during the afternoon along the coast. Weak instability may fuel a few isolated thunderstorms. Strong shear and low level helicity could produce a tornado in the strongest of these storms. Thick cloud cover will keep temperatures in the upper 70s. Inland on the west side of the low, temperatures may peak in the mid 70s. Showers become scattered during the late afternoon as dry air filters in behind the exiting low.

Rainfall totals have decreased since the latest forecast update. Models continue to waiver in how uniform precipitation will be as it shifts north and east on Tuesday. Still, periods of heavy rain area expected which could make travel difficult for a brief period.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
On the backside of the lead shortwave responsible for the widespread shower activity on Tuesday, weak shortwave ridging and the loss of any daytime heating should result in a relative lull in shower activity during Tuesday evening. With another impulse following close behind it and nocturnal cooling acting to reduce instability, some guidance suggests a decaying line of showers and thunderstorms may arrive in the western zones around midnight and continue dissipating as it tracks across the Pee Dee region. Whether or not this occurs, forcing provided by the impulse should result in at least isolated to widely scattered showers and storms during the overnight hours before a cold front pushes through on Wednesday morning, especially with pwats remaining 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal until the frontal passage occurs. Overnight lows will remain quite mild ahead of the cold front, with mid-upper 60s forecast.

On Wednesday, with the closed mid-level low and several vorticity lobes rotating about it tracking eastward, this will bring the potential for at least a couple waves of showers and thunderstorms across the area, especially during the afternoon and evening. Weak to moderate instability and modest but sufficient effective shear remains evident on forecast soundings, keeping at least a marginal risk (threat level 1 out of 5) for severe weather in play, with the main threats being large hail and damaging winds. High temperatures should reach the low-mid 80s with mixed clouds and sun as cooler temperatures aloft help to develop plenty of cumulus. Showers and storms should dissipate late on Wednesday with the loss of daytime heating. With passage of the mid-level low aloft, another cold front is expected to slide through from the north, veering winds to NNW overnight. Low temps will depend on how much cool advection happens behind the front, with low-mid 60s presently expected.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Mid-level ridging and surface high pressure will make for a dry and pleasant Thursday into Friday morning with daytime highs in the low-mid 80s and overnight lows in the low-mid 60s.

Dry weather will be short-lived as another upper system approaches from the west and brings unsettled weather over the weekend. Guidance continues to show some differences in the timing and evolution of the mid-level features, which has resulted in keeping PoPs in the chance range across the area for this update. Temperatures are expected to stay above normal, but of course these will be modulated by the extent of cloud cover and showers. The storm system should move offshore by Sunday with weak high pressure building in behind it for the start of next week.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Low level Cu will increase this afternoon in onshore flow. A few brief showers are possible, but restrictions are not expected (brief MVFR if any occur). High clouds increase overnight with lowering ceilings through Tuesday morning. MVFR conditions are expected everywhere after midnight with showers increasing from south to north through sunrise. A few areas of IFR are possible inland near sunrise, but confidence is low in the warm advective regime in holding on to a solid IFR restriction through Tuesday. More likely to be a variation of VFR/MVFR/IFR in periods of heavy rain through late Tuesday.

Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions may occur Monday night into Tuesday with the next weather system moving in. Improving conditions into Thursday. Another system approaches the area for next weekend.

MARINE
Through Tuesday...
Onshore flow will increase tonight ahead of a developing low. SE winds turn southerly by Tuesday morning and winds increase to 15-20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots at times. The existing Small Craft Advisory has been extended to all nearshore waters through early Wednesday, primarily for 4-7 foot seas. Showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday could bring a strong wind gust or isolated waterspout.

Tuesday night through Saturday...
SCA conditions due to seas are expected to continue through Tuesday night while isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue ahead of a cold front. The cold front will push offshore on Wednesday, however, unsettled weather conditions due to additional showers and storms may linger into Wednesday evening before high pressure finally builds across the Carolinas for Thursday into Friday. Another storm system may bring unsettled weather for late Friday through Saturday, but winds and seas are currently expected to stay below SCA thresholds.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252-254-256.

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Sunset Beach Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

Dunn Sound
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Mon -- 12:30 AM EDT     5.02 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:05 AM EDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:04 PM EDT     3.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:08 PM EDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
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Dunn Sound, north end, South Carolina, Tide feet

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