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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 956 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Overnight..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely late this evening, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less late this evening.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming w. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 956 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Scattered showers over the coastal waters continue through tonight with another band of showers expected ahead of a cold front on Sunday afternoon. Conditions improve early next week behind the cold front with another cold front expected on Wednesday, bringing gusty winds to the waters during the day.

FXUS62 KILM 030326 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1026 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
Unseasonably warm and damp weather will continue through Sunday.
A cold front will sweep this moisture offshore Sunday night.
Cooler and drier weather is expected for Monday into Tuesday, then turning colder Wednesday and Thursday behind a second cold front. High pressure should reach the Carolinas by Friday.

UPDATE
Forecast remains on track with scattered showers tracking northeastward, bringing a few to several hundredths of an inch in accumulation. Expect overall coverage to decrease over the next several hours and have reflected this with a general downward trend in PoPs. Patchy fog may develop in the moist low-level environment and some sea fog may scrape the coastline in spots. Winds will increase towards dawn as a cold front approaches, helping to mix out any fog early in the day.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
A cold front will approach the area from the west through the period, bringing a chance for showers. However, it looks like the best upper support and instability will be south and east of the area so rainfall amounts should be light. Lows tonight should fall to the lower 60s with highs Sunday in the mid 70s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Low pressure will track off to New England Sun night dragging a cold front through the area and offshore. A deeper westerly flow will develop with plenty of drier air moving in through the low to mid levels initially. Some higher level moisture will hang around into Monday, but soundings show a considerable dry layer up to 16 to 18k or so. Pcp water values drop to less than a quarter of an inch by Mon morning. Cooler air will start to advect in Sun night as the front moves offshore, but deeper drying and cooling will come with passage of shortwave late Monday. Temps will drop down near 50 by Mon morning and will mainly stay in the 60s on Mon for highs in continued CAA. Mon night will completely clear out with temps dropping down near 40 for lows most places. Tues will continue dry and cool with temps right near normal with highs near 60.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Dry and cool weather will continue, but a shortwave will dig down pushing a cold front eastward through the area Tues eve into Wed morning. May see some passing mainly mid to high clouds late Tues into Wed with passing of cold front and shortwave.
This will bring a reinforcing shot of cold and dry air as high pressure builds in from the west Wed into Thurs. Temps will probably be in the mid 50s for highs Wed and Thurs under sunny skies with overnight lows down near freezing or below in spots.
High pressure will migrate across the Southeast reaching off the coast by Fri afternoon. This will begin a warming trend as winds come around to the SW bringing high temps back into the 60s Fri into the weekend. Overall, not expecting any pcp through the week with a cool start and warming into the weekend.

AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Lower confidence forecast for tonight with IFR to LIFR ceilings expected at the terminals later this evening and continuing through most of the night. Sea fog may impact the coastal terminals given the abnormally warm/moist conditions and cool sea surface temperatures. Scattered light showers add to the complexity with ground fog not out of the question at the inland terminals, but currently considered unlikely given thick cloud cover in place. Southwesterly winds pick up late in the night and especially during the daylight hours as a cold front approaches, bringing gusty winds to all terminals on Sunday.
Vis/cig restrictions will ease back into MVFR as winds increase late tonight into tomorrow morning and should return to VFR before the end of the period.

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions expected to dominate the extended period. Another cold front is forecast to slide through early Wednesday and low confidence exists for MVFR cigs to accompany or follow this frontal passage.

MARINE
Through Sunday...Light S winds tonight will become SW at 10 to 15 KT Sunday with higher gusts. Seas will run 3 to 4 FT.

Sunday night through Thursday...Winds will veer around from SW to W late Sun into Mon as passing cold front moves farther offshore. Gusty W to NW winds will develop late Mon as deeper drier and cooler air moves over waters. Seas on a downward trend initially with help of offshore flow will kick up a bit late Mon in increasing winds, but overall expect seas in the 2 to 4 ft range through most of the early to midweek period. Another cold front will move through Tues night with winds backing a bit to the west ahead of it and increasing up to 15 to 20 kts behind it Wed into Wed night. This could produce brief small craft advisory conditions late Wed before diminishing in subsiding winds as they back around with high pressure tracking across the Southeast on Thurs.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Reaves Point
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Sat -- 05:39 AM EST     0.49 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:34 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:38 AM EST     3.99 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:23 PM EST     0.78 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:54 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Reaves Point, North Carolina, Tide feet

Fort Caswell
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Sat -- 04:49 AM EST     0.53 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:11 AM EST     4.43 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:34 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:33 PM EST     0.83 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:55 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:37 PM EST     3.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fort Caswell, Cape Fear River, North Carolina, Tide feet

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