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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 602 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.gale warning in effect until 4 am est Monday...
Tonight..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw late. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms until early morning, then a chance of showers late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early this evening.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed..N winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming ne 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Fri..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 602 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Hazardous conditions will peak tonight as a strong storm system affects the waters. Conditions will then improve through Monday as high pressure builds back into the area and maintains control through the week.

FXUS62 KILM 110013 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 713 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
A strong storm system will bring rain and strong winds through tonight. High pressure will then build in for most of the week bringing cool and dry weather once again. Rain chances could increase late in the period due to a possible storm system to the south.

UPDATE
Currently best chance for showers or a stray storm is along the coast but this will increase across the CWA over the next several hours as a cold front approaches. This feature will move through around midnight with a line of showers sweeping over the area and winds gusting ~40-45 mph, switching to out of the NW behind the front.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A cold front will move through the area overnight, preceded by scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. The front will also be preceded by gusty S to SW winds that will become NW overnight and continue into Monday. Showers and storms tonight could bring produce winds near severe levels in isolated locations.
Lows tonight will fall to the low to mid 40s after the front passes with highs Monday in the low to mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
The short term period...through Wednesday morning will be clear/sunny and cold. Surface high pressure will build in from the west slowly through the period as the mid level pattern turns to more of a westerly flow. Probably not the coldest air mass of the season but close. Highs will be in the lower to middle 50s with lows a degree or two either side of 30.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Clear and cold conditions will persist through mid and late week as the antecedent cold air mass gets reinforced by a shortwave skirting by to the north. Depending on where the surface high ends up and the attendant gradient...Friday morning could be the coldest of the season. Some of the lower guidance is also showing highs perhaps not getting out of the 40s Thursday. Low confidence best describes the later part of the period as a cut off low drops across the deep south with the GFS offering up a wetter solution as opposed to the drier ECMWF suite of guidance. Basically maintained the pops from the previous package.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Restrictions look to hold through the next 6hrs of the 00Z TAF period. Current shower activity is isolated away from the coast but coverage will continue to increase ahead of the approaching cold front. CIGs are primarily IFR, temporarily scattering out with passing showers. VSBYs in RA will be 4-5 SM but could drop to near 1 SM in heavier rain. Wind gusts will be near 20 kt increasing to 30-35 kt as the front moves through around midnight. This will bring brief LLWS over all sites, with the front offshore ~06Z and clearing conditions in dry, NW winds.

Extended Outlook...VFR predominantly expected as high pressure dominates through the period.

MARINE
Through Monday...S winds to 15 to 20 KT this afternoon will veer to the SW this evening and become NW overnight after the front passes. Speeds will increase to 25 to 30 KT at the peak this evening into overnight with gusts of 35 to 40 KT possible.
Winds will diminish to 10 to 15 KT by late Monday. Seas of 4 to 6 FT will build to 6 to 9 FT overnight before subsiding to 4 to 6 FT by Monday afternoon.

Monday Night through Friday: Conditions calm down somewhat across the coastal waters late Monday and into mid week as high pressure builds in slowly across the waters. Winds will maintain a northerly component with speeds in a range of 10-15 knots. An arctic front will push across the area late Wednesday increasing winds and seas for a few days. Expect an enhanced northeast flow of 20-25 knots and seas, although somewhat marginal in small craft criteria.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for AMZ250-252-254-256.

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Federal Point, Cape Fear River, North Carolina, Tide feet

Bald Head
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Sun -- 04:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:30 AM EST     4.58 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:54 AM EST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:10 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:03 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:37 PM EST     3.86 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:55 PM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
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Bald Head, Cape Fear River, North Carolina, Tide feet

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