Monday, January25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Varnam, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 5:36PM Monday January 25, 2021 2:05 PM EST (19:05 UTC) Moonrise 2:43PMMoonset 4:41AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1019 Am Est Mon Jan 25 2021
Rest of today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain in the evening. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A slight chance of showers. Patchy fog in the morning. Patchy fog in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Rain likely.
Thu..N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
AMZ200 1019 Am Est Mon Jan 25 2021
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A warm front will lift across the waters this afternoon as a weak low pressure system approaches from the west. Patchy sea fog could possibly become widespread across the waters into Tuesday. Brief improvement expected late Tuesday into Wednesday before strengthening low pressure creates hazardous conditions late Wednesday through late Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Varnam, NC
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location: 33.96, -78.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 251649 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1150 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

SYNOPSIS. A warm front, with weak low pressure moving along it, will lift north of the forecast area this afternoon. Intensifying low pressure system will move across the area on Wednesday providing a good chance of soaking rain. High pressure and a drying trend will encompass the Carolinas late next week.

UPDATE. Biggest changes were to pop for the late morning/afternoon to account for ongoing rainfall and adjust temps. Warm front just south of the area this morning will continue lifting north during the day. Isentropic lift ahead of the front is producing light to moderate rain across the forecast area. The lift and rain will slowly shift north as the front moves closer, and will likely push north of the forecast area during the late afternoon hours. There may be some light showers that develop right along the warm front, where limited instability can tap into the area of higher moisture. As moisture shifts north, light showers will follow, but this may not happen until late afternoon or early evening. Temperatures will likely rise overnight, especially along the coast, as warm advection sets up.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. Approaching warm front will bring increasingly overcast skies today with chances for rainfall steadily increasing through the morning and afternoon hours. Some downpours could bring moderate to heavy rain rates at times, especially in the late morning to early afternoon hours today. The warm front lifts to the north of the region by Monday evening for a brief break in rainfall, but another round is expected Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the west.

Rainfall potential is a bit more uncertain for Tuesday, but indications from the latest model runs indicate some instability sufficient for some thunderstorm activity and plenty of moisture in a warm atmosphere. The mitigating factor is if the front stalls just to the northwest of the forecast area, which some models indicate may happen ahead of another system about to emerge from the Gulf of Mexico. Should this happen, the forecast will trend drier with little to no thunderstorm activity.

Confidence is higher in the warm up ahead for the region. Highs today will reach anywhere from the upper 50s to low 60s in NC and the low to upper 60s in SC. Lows tonight will reach the mid 50s followed by widespread highs for Tuesday in the low to mid 70s. Normal highs across the region for this time of year are in the mid to upper 50s, while normal lows are in the mid 30s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Cold front moves south of the area on Tuesday night, but clouds and late arrival of the cooler air will keep low temperatures in the low to mid 50s. This cold front will stall south of the area and serve as the initiation for low pressure to develop over the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Expect showers to develop ahead of the broad low during the day on Wednesday as the low rides along the northward moving boundary. Low begins to approach the Carolina coast during the afternoon with rainfall increasing in coverage and intensity. As the low pushes off of the southeastern NC coastline Wednesday night, the system will merge with favorable jet dynamics and an associated upper low and quickly deepen. This could bring us some brief impacts from elevated winds as the system accelerates off to the northeast late Wednesday night. With the system trending further south in recent models runs, most of the area should see a better chance of locally heavy rainfall on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening especially.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Cold advection on the NW side of the low will likely keep temperatures in the upper 40s or lower 50s for Thursday as showers end early Thursday morning. Cold advection continues on Friday as high pressure builds into the area. High pressure will move overhead or just to the east on Saturday. Temperatures should remain slightly below average for the early portion of next weekend as a result. The next system will begin to affect the area late next weekend with warm air and rain chances returning by Sunday into early next week.

AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Expect predominately IFR conditions through much of the forecast period. Winds will shift to the southeast this afternoon with the warm air advection. IFR ceilings are expected tonight, with pockets of MVFR. Any precipitation will move north of the region this evening. Warm and cloudy conditions on Tuesday with southwest flow.

Extended Outlook . Low ceilings/visibility to continue on Tuesday with a brief VFR break into Thursday evening. Clearing and VFR likely Thursday into Saturday. Flight restrictions possibly return Sunday into early next week.

MARINE. Today through Tuesday . A warm front will advance over the waters today that will bring potentially dense sea fog with visibility around 2 NM or less at times. The front will also bring mainly southwest flow for the next 36 hours with speeds around 10 kts today increasing tonight through Tuesday between 15 and 20 kts with gusts to 25 kts beyond 15 NM. Seas 2 to 3 feet today from the south at 6 seconds increasing tonight through Tuesday between 3 to 5 feet from the south around 8 seconds with 6 footers possible out beyond 15 NM. Conditions may exist into Tuesday beyond 15 NM that may be hazardous to smaller watercraft and inexperienced mariners. Tuesday Night through Friday . Small Craft conditions should be coming to an end on Tuesday night as the front pushes southward into southern SC, bringing winds generally out of the W or NW around 10- 15 knots. On Wednesday, low pressure over the Gulf Coast will develop along the previous frontal boundary and track toward the southeastern NC coastline. Will see winds begin to slowly increase and back throughout the day, becoming easterly on Wednesday afternoon and NW on Wednesday evening as the center of the low stays just south of the area. Once the low moves off of the southeast NC coastline Wednesday night into Thursday morning, the system will merge with an upper low and begin to deepen quickly. Winds become NW on the lee side of the low, increasing to 25-30 knots. Wind profiles show deep mixing and a uniform profile in the boundary layer indicating good potential for mixing. Current gusts are forecast 30- 35 knots, and the area could see widespread Gale conditions on Thursday afternoon. Seas increase to near 5-7 feet, remaining 4-6 feet through Thursday and Thursday night. Conditions slowly improve as the low moves off to the NE Thursday night, but Small Craft conditions may continue through early Friday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . ILM UPDATE . III NEAR TERM . MCK SHORT TERM . 21 LONG TERM . 21 AVIATION . 43 MARINE . MCK/21


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 14 mi58 min E 9.7 G 14 46°F 53°F1016.1 hPa
41108 21 mi66 min 54°F3 ft
MBIN7 23 mi66 min E 9.9 G 13 50°F 1015.5 hPa (-2.7)
WLON7 25 mi66 min 48°F 47°F1016.7 hPa (-2.5)
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 26 mi81 min E 8 49°F 996 hPa47°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 31 mi66 min NE 12 G 15 49°F 51°F1016.2 hPa (-2.5)
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi58 min ENE 12 G 16 48°F 51°F1016 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 32 mi89 min 51°F4 ft
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 40 mi66 min 50°F
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 45 mi46 min NE 9.7 G 14 58°F 66°F1014.6 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 48 mi58 min 54°F 56°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC11 mi71 minNE 54.00 miDrizzle49°F48°F95%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

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Last 24hrSE7SE6E4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3N4NE7NE6NE6NE4NE5NE6NE5
1 day agoN11
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N6CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmN4N4N3N4NE6NE6E7SE7E5
2 days agoSW3SW5SW4W3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmN4N7N5N6N6N7N9N11
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Tide / Current Tables for Holden Beach, North Carolina
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Holden Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:41 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:50 AM EST     4.53 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:03 AM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:43 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:09 PM EST     3.58 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:56 PM EST     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.61.72.83.74.44.54.23.42.31.10.2-0.10.20.91.82.63.33.63.42.81.80.7-0.1-0.4

Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:41 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:35 AM EST     4.62 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:14 PM EST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:43 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:55 PM EST     3.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.923.144.54.64.23.42.51.60.90.50.61.32.233.63.83.52.92.11.20.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.