Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Varnam, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 8:16PM Thursday July 29, 2021 10:16 AM EDT (14:16 UTC) Moonrise 10:54PMMoonset 10:53AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 939 Am Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
Rest of today..E winds 5 kt, becoming S late. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers through the day, then showers likely through the night.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of tstms. Showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 939 Am Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A flat pressure pattern will result in light wind through today. Low pressure dropping into eastern nc will bring increasing sw winds Friday before easing into Saturday, as the low moves in vicinity of the waters. An advisory may be needed Friday due to gusty sw winds. The front will stall near the coast Sunday into early next week, resulting in scattered tstms, but manageable winds outside of tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Varnam, NC
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location: 33.96, -78.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 291347 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 947 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

SYNOPSIS. Temperatures will become hot today, and especially on Friday as an upper ridge builds over the area. A heat advisory may be needed for all of the area on Friday. A front will drop into the region late on Friday, stalling along the coast this weekend through early next week, bringing rounds of showers and periodic thunderstorms.

UPDATE. Only change to running forecast was to adjust sky cover and visibilities for inland areas per recent satellite and surface ob trends, with widespread stratus and patchy vsby issues focused around the I-95 corridor. Expect any lingering fog issues to improve over the next hour or so. Expecting a hot day with heat indices generally just below advisory criteria for most. Main decisions for this afternoon's package will be Heat and Small Craft Advisory potential for Friday, along with reevaluating convective potential for tomorrow.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. GOES-16 vapor channels show the massive clockwise circulation of an upper ridge imposing itself upon the region on NNW trajectories aloft characterized by dry descending air in this flow regime. This effectively caps our rain chances today while turning up the heat switch a little bit, when combined with seasonal dewpoints, results in heat indices of 99-103 inland this afternoon, 90s at the coast.

Friday will likely see heat advisories posted as a west downslope wind in concert with the upper ridge brings air temperatures into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees, and projected heat indices of 105- 109 inland. The coast will be more marginal in reaching the 105 deg HI criteria, but sometimes higher coastal dewpoints can push the HI surprisingly high.

A line of cumulus or light showers may approach SE NC late today, but no measurable rainfall expected. An interesting set- up Friday, as a weak boundary drops south over the area during peak intense heating. The added convergence could result in isolated severe TSTMs due to the exceptionally high low level lapse rates, and a little bit of mid level moisture advection late in the day, The SPC apparently is concerned as they have painted a 'marginal TSTM risk over eastern NC on Friday, when our heat advisories will paint the zone maps orange.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Surface front continues its slow progression southward across the area Friday night, before stalling near or just south of the area for Saturday. Scattered storms along front late Friday evening will diminish into overnight hours. Plenty of diurnal clouds Saturday, with chance of afternoon storms mainly along the sea breeze across coastal counties. High temps Saturday in the low 90s, with possible mid 90s for southern areas depending on front location, with heat indices between 98 and 103 on average. Lows both nights above normal around 75 degrees.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Quite the unsettled period in store for the start of next week. Temperatures increase a little Sunday compared to Saturday with a slight downslope flow component, and heat indices may reach heat advisory criteria again Sunday mainly east of I-95. Modest instability and summer sunshine, with weak impulses aloft will increase rain chances Sunday afternoon. A second front approaching from the north Sunday night will maintain elevated pops into overnight hours.

A deep upper level trough develops across the eastern US Monday through midweek. A decent shortwave moves across the Carolinas Monday into Tuesday, combining with increased moisture due to low level southwest flow to bring moderate rainfall to the area for the start of next week. Continued impulses and favorable 250mb jet position will keep likely pops in the forecast through Wednesday. WPC forecasting 3-5 inches of rain for our area from this weekend through Wednesday, with majority of that expected to fall Mon to Wed. Below normal temps in store for start of next week due to increased clouds and precip.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. VFR through the 12Z TAF period. Fog is not a problem for the coastal terminals this morning. Some stratocumulus is trying to make its way onshore, and could provide a brief SCT VFR deck for KCRE and KMYR in the next hour or so. KFLO has encountered IFR/LIFR fog over the last hour, with more coming in from the east. Dewpoints have crept up a little bit more recently, so there's concern that this may linger for awhile, perhaps rising to a low stratus deck.

Winds today will become S-SE 7-11 knots, higher gusts at the coast in afternoon. Winds veer to the SW tonight and stay a little breezy, which knocks out fog concerns.

Extended Outlook . VFR expected Fri with return of possible MVFR with another front into the weekend and early next week.

MARINE. Through Friday . Much improved today in that TSTMs will remain well offshore, with locally a flat pressure pattern that results in very light wind through today. Changes take place though by tonight as a frontal boundary north of the area drops south, jacking up local SW winds after midnight tonight of 15-20 kt, with gusts to 25 kt likely Friday, and for the first time since July 9th, a Small Craft Advisory may be needed. Gusts begin to ease by Friday night so the advisory may be just for the day Friday. Mariners are encouraged to get a radar update Friday as a few strong TSTMs are possible along a frontal boundary just to the north. The sea spectrum shows mellowing wind-sea and chop today, and a slight dampening of the Bermuda swell, so seas look quite favorable today. Seas turn a little more turbulent Friday as winds stir up a moderate to heavy chop, and developing steep wind-waves.

Friday Night through Monday . Gusty southwest winds early Friday night will quickly weaken and vary in direction through Saturday evening as a front drops south across the area. SW winds 10-15 kts redevelop for early Sunday through Monday, with 15-20 kts forecasted for Sunday afternoon. 3-4 ft seas Friday night relax a little to 2-3 ft for Saturday and Saturday night before south wind waves begin to build and seas increase back to 3-4 ft for Sunday and Monday. A weak SE swell will continue to persist through the weekend into early next week. Best thunderstorm chances for coastal waters will be Sunday night through Monday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . ILM UPDATE . MCW NEAR TERM . MJC SHORT TERM . VAO LONG TERM . VAO AVIATION . IGB MARINE . MJC/VAO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SSBN7 14 mi60 min 84°F2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 14 mi69 min N 3.9 G 5.8 79°F 84°F1019.2 hPa
41108 21 mi47 min 82°F2 ft
MBIN7 23 mi47 min NW 4.1 G 8 82°F 1016.4 hPa
WLON7 25 mi47 min 82°F 83°F1017.4 hPa
MBNN7 28 mi47 min NW 2.9 G 6 83°F 1017.4 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 31 mi47 min WSW 5.1 G 7 81°F 82°F1016.8 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi69 min N 5.8 G 9.7 79°F 82°F1017.5 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 32 mi40 min 82°F2 ft
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 40 mi47 min 81°F
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 45 mi37 min Calm G 1.9 81°F 83°F1016.8 hPa73°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 48 mi69 min WSW 7.8 G 12 82°F 82°F1017 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC11 mi22 minWSW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F75°F78%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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2 days agoN4CalmCalmS4S6S8S8S6SW4S6S4S4S6S5S5S6SW5SW7SW4W3CalmCalmCalmS5

Tide / Current Tables for Holden Beach, North Carolina
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Holden Beach
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Thu -- 05:53 AM EDT     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:17 PM EDT     4.22 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:14 PM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.443.11.90.7-0.2-0.4-0.10.81.933.84.24.13.42.41.20.3-0.100.71.62.63.4

Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
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Thu -- 12:50 AM EDT     4.83 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:11 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:17 PM EDT     4.58 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:30 PM EDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.64.84.53.72.61.60.70.30.51.32.43.44.24.64.53.93.12.11.30.80.81.42.33.2

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