Thursday, July16, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Varnam, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 8:25PM Thursday July 16, 2020 11:42 AM EDT (15:42 UTC) Moonrise 1:42AMMoonset 3:54PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1011 Am Edt Thu Jul 16 2020
Rest of today..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..SW to S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1011 Am Edt Thu Jul 16 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will build south along the u.s. East coast today, moving away from the area Friday and Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Varnam, NC
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location: 33.96, -78.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 161418 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1018 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure at the surface and aloft will linger over the Southeast United States through the end of the week. Hot and humid conditions will continue along with the threat of isolated thunderstorms. Storm coverage will increase early next week, as ridging aloft starts to weaken.

UPDATE. Current forecast in good shape and expectations for the remainder of the day are unchanged. Latest update was only for tweaks to reflect latest conditions.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. Debris cloudiness from earlier convection will be slow to clear the Pee Dee region during the early morning hours while onshore low- level flow will direct scattered cumulus onshore along the coastal areas. Could see some pockets of BR during the early morning away from the areas holding onto the debris clouds. The subtropical ridge aloft across the Carolinas and surface ridging from the north will keep warm temperatures in place through Friday. In addition, only isolated to widely scattered convection is expected, especially each afternoon/evening, with the focus shifting farther inland later in the day. Otherwise, the heat index will range from the upper 90s to around 100 each day, along with a few pockets up to 102.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. The East to West oriented ridge will more or less remain in place through the weekend. The axis will shift a bit to the west Sunday allowing for increased convective chances. Pops trend upward during the forecast period. High temperatures will reflect the ridge pushing west if only slightly with lower 90s Saturday and upper 80s to lower 90s Sunday. Lows remain well into the 70s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Much the same for the extended forecast as the ridge becomes even more diffuse pushing westward as well. Mid level shortwaves perhaps convectively induced will weaken the ridge also. Long story short good chance pops are in the forecast for the foreseeable future with little change in temperatures.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Overall, VFR conditions will prevail through much of the 12Z TAF period. Some patchy fog is found in the area, bringing brief stints of MVFR. Have represented that with TEMPO groups for each terminal until 13Z. High pressure overhead creates warm, humid, sunny skies today. Afternoon convection is possible, though pretty limited in coverage. At this time, think KCRE and KMYR have the best chance of seeing popup storms. Cumulus cloud deck will develop late this morning, probably somewhere in the 3000-4000ft range along the coast, with ceilings a little higher inland. May see brief periods of MVFR along the coast with these lower cumulus ceilings. Seabreeze kicks up later this morning, with ESE winds to 10-12kts, calming by evening. MVFR fog possible inland during the pre-dawn hours of Friday morning.

Extended Outlook . Convection will increase into the weekend as the ridge aloft weakens, this will lead to higher chances of brief MVFR/IFR, induced by nearby storms.

MARINE. High pressure will ridge southward across the waters and support easterly flow around 10 knots today. The orientation of the ridge axis will change as the center of the high drifts southeastward off the coast of New England late tonight into Friday. Regardless, light onshore flow will persist through the remainder of the near term period. Waves of 2-3 ft will continue through Friday as well.

Modest wind fields expected through the period and thus significant seas as well. A light south to southeast flow will prevail through the weekend. A more southwesterly flow develops next week although not expecting the overnight low level jetting and uptick in winds that we usually see this time of year. Speeds increase slightly to around ten knots to 10-15 knots. As for seas most if not all guidance showing 2-3 feet.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . SHK UPDATE . 31 NEAR TERM . SRP SHORT TERM . SHK LONG TERM . SHK AVIATION . IGB MARINE . SHK/SRP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41119 14 mi86 min 84°F2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 14 mi35 min SE 9.7 G 14 84°F 85°F1022 hPa
41108 21 mi73 min 84°F2 ft
WLON7 25 mi115 min 84°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 31 mi115 min 84°F
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi35 min ENE 9.7 G 14 82°F 85°F1022 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 32 mi36 min 85°F2 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 45 mi43 min E 5.8 G 9.7 83°F 1021.2 hPa (+0.5)74°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 48 mi35 min E 9.7 G 14 83°F 85°F1022.4 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC11 mi48 minE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy85°F73°F68%1022 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E5E5SE8E5CalmSE4E6E3E5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmNE3NE5E7E7E7
1 day agoN3SW4S5CalmS5S4CalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3NE4NE5E7
2 days agoSW5SW8S5S8SW8
G15
S8W10N5NW6CalmCalmCalmN5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN3N5NE5N6

Tide / Current Tables for Holden Beach, North Carolina
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Holden Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:30 AM EDT     3.51 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:44 AM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:06 PM EDT     4.45 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:28 PM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.51.32.333.53.53.12.41.50.6-0-0.20.31.22.43.44.14.44.33.62.71.50.5-0

Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:24 AM EDT     3.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:52 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:59 PM EDT     4.87 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.32.12.93.53.93.83.42.71.91.20.60.40.81.82.93.94.64.94.643.22.31.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.