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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 916 Am Est Thu Nov 30 2023
Today..N winds 5 kt, becoming ne 5 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..E winds 5 kt. Seas 1 ft.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely with a slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely. A slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers, mainly in the evening.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely .
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 916 Am Est Thu Nov 30 2023
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will move east away from the coastal waters today. Tonight, a coastal trough will form over the coastal waters and move inland as a warm front on Friday. A fast moving cold front will move across the waters on Sunday.

FXUS62 KILM 301416 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 916 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
Chilly Canadian high will push offshore today with a gradual return to milder temperatures into the weekend. Rain chances will increase as upper level disturbances pass over the area through the weekend. A cold front will move through Monday with drier air spreading over the Southeast Tuesday and Wednesday.

UPDATE
No significant changes with the 9 AM EST update.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
The surface high pressure will continue moving offshore toward the east, and weak southerly flow on the west side of the high will begin a warmup from the past few days not so enjoyable cold snap.
The increase in height thickness and 850 temperatures show this slight warming trend ahead of a front approaching from Texas. This return flow also increases the precipitable waters to near normal values around 0.75", but The NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEFS all show dry conditions through tonight. The skies will be clear through this period.

High temperatures today will be around 60 degrees and a degree or two cooler along the beaches. Tonight's low temperatures are expected to fall into the upper 30s west of I-95 and the mid-40s along the beaches.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Weak trough along the coast Fri morning ends up more or less being a warm front Fri as it lifts north with temperatures quickly warming as southerly flow develops and increases. Inland areas will struggle to see the warmer temps on Fri and a 10 degree temp range across a relatively short west to east distance wouldn't be shocking. Despite the abundant moisture Fri there is really no source of lift or dynamics. The LLJ will be 30-35 kt, but other than that there is very little going on. Fri will be cloudy and on the humid side near the coast, but minimal to no measurable rainfall until late Fri night, when the first in a series of weak surface waves with mid- level support approach from the southwest. Temperatures on Fri will range from near climo inland to well above climo along the coast.
Wedge weakens Fri night and warmer air starts to make inroads, with all areas ending up well above climo Fri night.

Perhaps a brief lull in rain Sat morning as the first surface and mid-level feature lift northeast and subsidence sets up. Pause in activity will be short lived as the next surface/mid-level combo move toward the area Sat afternoon into Sat night. The second wave is more consolidated and appears to have stronger dynamics aloft.
This will lead to showers and isolated thunderstorms spreading over the area Sat into Sat night. Some enhancement of the LLJ late Sat into Sat night with speeds approaching 40kt. Despite these wind speeds strong/severe potential is very limited. Little in the way of instability with CAPE values struggling to hit 100 J/kg even during the warmest part of the day, when LLJ is on the weak side. Along the coast the more stable marine influence will work to offset any warmer temps/dew points. Temperatures above to well above climo continue Sat and Sat night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Unsettled start to next week with cold front in the area Sun morning. Front will struggle to move east as it will be laying parallel to the flow aloft. A series of waves moving along the front may cause it to drift east and west at various times during the day.
The frontal zone is finally pushed east Sun night into Mon by deeper 5h trough moving east from the MS Valley. Deep dry air and cool high pressure build in Mon into Tue with an impressive shortwave at the base of the trough passing north of the area Mon night. Current path of the shortwave would keep any cold pool rainfall north of the area, but something to watch. Temperatures Sun and Mon will be above to well above climo. High pressure settles in for Tue with temperatures a little above climo as cooler air filtering in is offset by abundant sunshine. A second cold front brings a reinforcing shot of cold air via Canadian high pressure for Wed dropping temperatures near climo

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR conditions expected. As high pressure shift eastward winds will be light with a east to a southeast wind of 6 knots expected mainly from 16 to 22 UTC.

Extended Outlook...VFR continues into Friday, when scattered showers could lead to brief/minor flight restrictions. Periods of low clouds and showers may bring additional restrictions at times through the weekend and into Monday.

MARINE
Through Tonight: High pressure will shift off the coast, and a weak trough will develop east of the coastal waters. This surface pattern will veer the winds from the north to east between 5 and 10 knots.
Seas will range between 1 and 2 feet through the period.

Friday through Monday: Waters will be between departing high to the east and stalled frontal zone to the west through the weekend and into Mon. The result will be enhanced southeast flow on Fri, weakening and becoming southerly on Sat. Southwest winds develop for Sun then increase Sun night and Mon as the front zone approaches the coast. Front passes on Mon with offshore flow developing behind it. Strongest winds will occur late Sun night through Mon with potential for solid 20 kt at times. Some isolated 15 kt is possible on Fri but otherwise winds will be 10-15 kt. Much of the time seas will be 3-4 ft except for late Fri night and Sun night into Mon when increased winds build seas to 3-5 ft. A southeast to south wind wave will be dominant Fri through Mon with a weak easterly swell also present at times.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Holden Beach
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Thu -- 02:43 AM EST     -0.57 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:56 AM EST     4.95 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:14 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:31 PM EST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:04 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:55 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:13 PM EST     3.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Holden Beach, North Carolina, Tide feet

Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
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Thu -- 03:54 AM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:08 AM EST     5.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:15 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:38 PM EST     0.59 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:04 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:56 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:28 PM EST     4.19 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina, Tide feet

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