Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Varnam, NC

KEY MESSAGES
- 1) Areas of fog may reduce visibilities to 1 mile or less at times early this morning.

- 2) Cool Start to the Week, Hazardous Marine Conditions Likely.

- 3) Significant Warming Trend Kicks in by Thursday, Scattered Storms Possible in the Afternoon.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Areas of fog may reduce visibilities to 1 mile or less at times early this morning.

A moderate to high probability for areas of fog exists for most of the forecast area through early this morning. This is primarily driven by shallow, weakening northerly flow interacting with a boundary layer that is nearly saturated from recent rainfall.

KEY MESSAGE 2
Cool Start to the Week, Hazardous Marine Conditions Likely.

1040+ mb surface high starts moving into the Northeast Sunday night, slipping into New England by late Monday. This creates a solid CAD wedge setup, bringing in a brief cooling trend for the area Monday and Tuesday. Wedge appears to be strongest Monday, with high temperatures only getting into the low-to-mid 50s, and lows that night dipping down into the mid 30s to lower 40s.

By Tuesday, upper level energy and forcing in the Northeast tries to kick the surface high offshore, which gradually breaks down the wedge. This will allow a ridge in the Southeast at 850 mb to poke up a bit more as it also moves offshore, creating more of an onshore wind component closer to the coast. Temperature gradient looks to set up Tuesday afternoon, where coastal locales will try to warm up with this onshore flow, while inland areas are still under the influence of the wedge. Could see a spread from the upper 50s inland to the mid 60s at the coast. Keep an eye on this one, though.
Forecast guidance loves to break down the wedge faster than advertised, so temps at the coast may actually be on the cooler when this is all said and done.

In the midst of all this, northeasterly winds quickly pick up over the coastal waters, creating Small Craft Advisory concerns. See the extended Marine discussion below for more detail.

KEY MESSAGE 3
Significant Warming Trend Kicks in by Thursday, Scattered Storms Possible in the Afternoon.

Ridge at 850 mb continues to push further offshore, but the western extent of it has no problem reaching well into the Carolinas.
Meanwhile, another ridge over the Gulf expands and amplifies by the time it moves over Florida and the Caribbean by midweek.

With vertical continuity in place, this allows some considerable warming to settle in across the area Thursday through Saturday.
High temperatures won't have a problem reaching near 80 degrees inland, while the beaches hit comfortable temps in the lower 70s. Looks like all records are safe here, but these high temperatures still register some 12-15 degrees above normal, and mimic more mid-late April than early March. Thermal profiles start looking a bit familiar, as this warmth triggers instability in the lower levels. Cannot rule out some scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon each day. Another old friend in the seabreeze will show up, given the stout differential heating between air and water (current water temperatures hanging near 50 degrees). Meteorological spring indeed.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Northerly winds are up just enough to keep most of the low-level moisture in the form of LIFR stratus rather than fog. That should remain the case through mid-morning before stratus lifts to MVFR. Clouds have a chance of scattering out after 16-18Z, but this is most likely to be the case inland (KFLO/KLBT).

Extended Forecast...Brief flight restrictions are possible Sunday night into Monday as another cold front moves through the region.
VFR returns Tuesday.

MARINE
Through Tonight...A quasi-stationary frontal boundary was lingering about 100 miles off the coast early this morning, resulting in sustained 10-15 kt northerly winds across the waters.
This front will slowly drift further east through today, allowing the pressure gradient to weaken and winds to diminish to 10 kt or less during the afternoon. Very weak high pressure will build in from the west Saturday night, maintaining a northerly direction, with speeds less than 10 kt.

Sunday through Wednesday...Rather tame start, with winds backing to the southwest at 5-10 kts and seas 1-3 ft. This changes rapidly Sunday night, as a cold air damming wedge starts building in from the northeast. Very stiff northeasterly flow starts coming in across the NC coastal waters late Sunday night, reaching the SC coastal waters before sunrise Monday morning.
Winds and seas won't have a problem reaching Small Craft Advisory criteria at this point, sticking around through Tuesday night. Winds look to gust up to 30 kts, and may even hit gale force at times. It doesn't look quite consistent enough for a Gale Watch or Warning, but we'll see how the next couple of forecast cycles shape up. Seas get up towards 4-5 ft at the coast over the SC waters from Little River Inlet to South Santee River, possibly reaching towards 6 ft up towards Surf City, NC.
As you head out towards 20 nm offshore, seas are a bit more uniform at 6-7 ft. Tuesday night, the wedge starts to break down, breaking the northeasterly winds and veering them to the southeast. Winds decrease considerably down to 5-10 kts Tuesday evening through Wednesday. Seas are a bit more stubborn to come down, hanging near 3- 5 ft by late Wednesday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.