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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 149 Pm Pst Mon Dec 11 2023
Tonight..SW winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming se. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 9 seconds.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 ft at 10 seconds.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 9 seconds.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 9 seconds.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming N 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 13 seconds.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog.

PZZ600 149 Pm Pst Mon Dec 11 2023
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park...at 19z or 11 am pst, a 1024 mb surface high was located about 800 nm west of los angeles, while a 1012 mb thermal low was along the southern california coast.

FXUS66 KLOX 112216 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 216 PM PST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
11/138 PM.

Offshore flow will continue most of the week, with gusty north to northeast winds at times, especially Tuesday night through early Thursday. Dry weather is expected through at least Saturday, with above normal temperatures during the days. Nights will be colder than normal, at least in wind-sheltered areas. A storm system moving into the eastern Pacific may bring rain to the region as early as very late this weekend, but more likely next week.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...11/215 PM.

Offshore flow continues to weaken as surface pressures fall across the interior ahead of a trough dropping out of the Pac NW. Santa Ana winds have basically ended for now and have been replaced by more typical light onshore sea breezes which have cooled temperatures considerably across the coast and coastal valleys.
Still above normal for this time of year but as much as 10 degrees cooler than yesterday. Interior areas however are as much as 20 degrees warmer than yesterday as the cold air that supported the strong Santa Ana winds has shifted east.

With gradients moving towards onshore Tuesday and then quickly reversing back to offshore the rest of the week, today and Tuesday will be the coolest days of the next seven for coast and valleys. Likely a little more cooling tomorrow with highs mostly in the 60s and some marine layer stratus possibly developing over coastal LA County.

The trough will drop through the Great basin Tuesday and into AZ Wed morning. This will reverse gradients to the east back to offshore with a low grade Santa Ana wind event expected for LA/Ventura Counties that will likely continue into the weekend.
Latest ensemble based guidance suggests mostly sub-advisory level winds with this event with less offshore flow and upper support than the last event. The most favorable locations could see gusts as high as 45 mph but most areas inside the usual Santa Ana wind corridor should top out at 35 mph or less. Gradients are slightly stronger Thursday but with even less upper support winds at the surface are expected to about the same or slightly weaker than Wednesday.

A warming trend will begin Wednesday with the return of offshore flow with highs mostly in the low to mid 70s for coast and valleys.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...11/208 PM.

Offshore flow continues Friday and Saturday and in fact NAEFS pressure gradients are strongest offshore on Saturday but with little if any upper support by that time so winds expected to remain below advisory levels. Warming temps expected as strong high pressure aloft builds over the state and there could be some lower 80s by Saturday across coast and valley areas of LA/Ventura Counties.

After Saturday forecast confidence takes a dive as models continue to advertise a potential shift towards a wetter pattern next week.
While the chances for rain locally still are high, when the precip will begin remains very uncertain. Models the last several days have been consistent showing a strengthening upper jet across the central and eastern Pacific, but also a stubborn upper ridge across the western US. This is causing incoming systems to stall between 130 and 140 west, not too different from the pattern in November when storms struggled to move onshore. Current forecast still has rain chances starting Sunday, mainly north of Pt Conception, but this is becoming less likely, especially southern and eastern counties. Latest ensemble guidance shows only 10-15 percent of the solutions showing even very light rain across Ventura and LA Counties before Monday and only slightly more solutions supporting that for SLO and Santa Barbara Counties. And even into early Tuesday there is still a majority of dry solutions for southern areas. So this is going to be a tricky cut off low pattern next week that may take several more days to resolve.

AVIATION
11/1825Z.

At 1801Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surface- based inversion of 2900 feet with a maximum temperatures of 18 C.
High confidence 06Z, then moderate confidence for coastal sites thereafter. Timing of cigs developing may be off by +/- 3 hours.
There is a 30% chance of no cigs for KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB, and a 10% chance of a few hours of BKN015 cigs for KSBA and KOXR from 09Z-16Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence, as there is a 30% chance of no cigs developing, and timing may be off by +/- 3 hours. High confidence any east wind component will be less than 5 kts.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

MARINE
11/155 PM.

For the Outer Waters and inner waters along the Central Coast, northwest Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds are occuring this afternoon. There is a 30-40 percent chance that winds will briefly drop below SCA levels late tonight and early Tuesday morning. Winds and seas will drop below SCA levels more permanently around late Tuesday night, and remaining below SCA levels through Saturday.

Inside the southern California bight, there is a 30-50 percent chance of SCA level northwest to north winds each evening across the western and central Santa Barbara Channel through Wednesday.
Farther south, between Rincon Point and Pacific Palisades, there is 30-40 percent chance of SCA level northeast winds Wednesday morning, and again Wednesday night through Thursday morning.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Tuesday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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Santa Monica
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Mon -- 12:52 AM PST     2.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:37 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:49 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:18 AM PST     6.29 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:37 PM PST     -0.74 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:36 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:45 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:05 PM PST     3.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Santa Monica, California, Tide feet

Santa Monica
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Mon -- 12:56 AM PST     2.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:37 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:49 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:19 AM PST     6.22 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:40 PM PST     -0.72 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:36 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:45 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:07 PM PST     3.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Santa Monica, Municipal Pier, California, Tide feet

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