Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 11:48 AM   Moonset 1:27 AM

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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 739 Am Pdt Tue May 14 2024
Today - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog. Tonight - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds and S 2 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog. Wed - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds and S 2 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Wed night - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds and sw 2 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog. Thu - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds and sw 2 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Thu night - W winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds and S 2 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Fri - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft and sw 2 ft. Patchy fog. Sat - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft and S 2 ft. Patchy fog.

PZZ600 739 Am Pdt Tue May 14 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 12z, or 5 am pdt, a 1029 mb surface high was centered 1100 nm nw of point conception and a 1004 mb surface low was centered in southern nevada.

FXUS66 KLOX 141637 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 937 AM PDT Tue May 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
14/843 AM.

Generally stagnant pattern through early next week with little day to day changes. Persistent low clouds and below normal temperatures will dominate the coastal side of the mountains, with above normal temperatures and gusty onshore winds on the interior side. The only wrinkle is a low chance of showers in the mountains each afternoon through Wednesday.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...14/843 AM.

***UPDATE***

A typical May marine layer, with depths between 1500 and 3000 feet, maintains its stronghold over the area. Expecting another cool and gloomy day on the coastal side of the mountains, as healthy onshore pressure gradients remain. Modified the high temperature forecast a bit to lower some coastal and valley areas to similar values as yesterday. Onshore wind gusts will increase and expand over the interior areas as they have been each day, with gusts of 20 to 35 mph common (strongest in the Antelope Valley with local gusts to 40 mph possible).

A weak but present upper level low right over southern California will weakly destabilize the atmosphere today and Wednesday. While the moisture aloft is the main limiting factor, there is a little (850mb dewpoints around 8 degrees Celsius). In addition, the convective clouds and moisture currently over southern Nevada and northwest Arizona will move over our area later tonight into Wednesday morning. These clouds could inhibit the convective potential some tomorrow, but if they thin out in the afternoon like the computer models suggest, then this could instead provide an extra moisture boost to the convection potential. As a result, upped the chances of showers to 20 percent for the typical shower magnets in the San Gabriel Mountains and north Ventura Mountains.
While not explicitly in the forecast, there is also a 10 percent chance that any shower grows into a thunderstorm.

***From Previous Discussion***

The relentless May Grey pattern will continue unabated. An upper low will transit over the area NW to SW today and Wednesday with a very weak ridge on tap for Thursday. Day to day gradients will change little and there will be a strong 8+ mb push to the east and moderate 5+ mb push to the north in the afternoons.

The low cloud pattern will continue with all coasts and vlys socked in the morning followed by decent clearing for the vlys, slow clearing for the inland coastal areas and brief late afternoon or no clearing for the near shore areas. Mdls do show slightly better/faster clearing on Thursday due the ridge, but given the strength of the onshore flow this might prove to be a little optimistic.

The strong onshore gradients will generate gusty southwesterly winds across interior sections, including the Antelope Valley.
However, outside of the local wind tunnels like Lake Palmdale, do not expect any widespread advisory-level gusts for the area.

There will be some build ups each afternoon over the higher peaks where the differential heating will generate decent instability.
Today and Thursday there is high confidence that there will only be some CU formation today and Thu. A few Hi Rez ensemble forceast members do show a wave moving in from the NE Wednesday afternoon and there is a 10 percent chc that this could trigger some TSTMs across the LA and VTA mtns.

It will be a little cooler today as hgts fall. Max temps will change little Wednesday and then warm some as hgts rise on Thursday. Max temps will generally be in the mid 60s to lower 70s across the coasts and 70s through the vly. The inland areas will be much warmer with max temps in the 80s. As it has been for the last few day the csts/vly will be 3 to 6 degrees blo normal and the inland areas will wind up 3 to 6 degrees above normals.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...14/307 AM.

On Friday the upper level ridge will peak in strength. This should result in some slightly warmer temperatures and less extensive marine layer clouds and fog.

An upper level low or trof will move up from the SW on Sat and Sun and will move over the area on Monday. The hgts will low through the period and onshore flow will increase into the moderate to strong category again.

Look for extensive night through morning low clouds through the period with enough present on Sunday to warrant a chance of drizzle in the morning.

The gradients are strong enough to bring a chc of advisory level gusts to portions of the LA mtns and the western Antelope Vly and adjacent foothills.

There will be a decent for this time of year jet in the area on Sunday afternoon which is always a convective worry, but right now none of the ensembles show it having any effect. Still it is worth watching.

Look for three days of cooling with Monday's max temps coming in 4 to 8 locally 10 degrees below normal (vly temps only in the lower to mid 70s)

AVIATION
14/1637Z.

At 1630Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2700 feet deep. The top of the inversion was around 3600 feet with a temperature of 17 degrees Celsius.

Overall for the 18Z TAF package, high confidence in desert TAFs and moderate confidence in coastal/valley TAFs. Lower confidence for coastal/valley sites due to uncertainties with timing of dissipation and formation of stratus.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 20-30% chance that MVFR CIGs will not dissipate this afternoon. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecast. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Dissipation of MVFR CIGs could be as late as 21Z. Return of MVFR CIGs could be +/- 2 hours of current 06Z forecast. Also, there is a 30% chance of IFR CIGs 08Z-14Z.

MARINE
14/759 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Saturday, conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels for most of the Outer Waters.
The only exception will be the area around Point Conception where there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds Wednesday and Thursday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Today through Saturday, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For most of the southern Inner Waters, winds and waves will remain below SCA levels through Saturday. The only exception is the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds each afternoon and evening today through Thursday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

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