Sunrise 6:12 AM   Sunset 7:28 PM Moonrise 4:45 PM   Moonset 4:44 AM

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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 302 Am Pdt Sat Apr 20 2024
Today - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 6 seconds and S 2 ft at 15 seconds. Tonight - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 6 seconds and S 3 ft at 17 seconds. Patchy fog. Sun - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds and S 3 ft at 17 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Sun night - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 4 ft at 8 seconds and S 2 ft at 16 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Mon - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 4 ft at 9 seconds and S 2 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog. Mon night - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog. Tue - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft and S 2 ft. Patchy fog.Wed - W winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 4 ft and sw 2 ft. Patchy fog.

PZZ600 302 Am Pdt Sat Apr 20 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 06z, or 11 pm pdt, high pressure was over the eastern pacific and a 1005 mb low was near las vegas.

FXUS66 KLOX 201104 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 404 AM PDT Sat Apr 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
20/247 AM.

Strong onshore flow in place the last couple of days will weaken today. Better clearing is forecast for most of the area, except for the Ventura County beaches. A warming trend will establish today through Sunday as weak high pressure along the West Coast builds in. Significant cooling along with a deep marine layer are expected Tuesday through Friday as low pressure moves into the area. In addition, there is a slight chance of showers or drizzle late next week.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...20/402 AM.

A deep marine layer depth remains wedged in across the region early this morning. Easterly flow around an eddy circulation in the Santa Barbara Channel scoured clouds across western Los Angeles and eastern Ventura Counties earlier, but clouds are now regrouping and making a morning push back across the Southland.
The marine layer depth currently near 2500 feet deep in the latest AMDAR soundings will deepen additionally to around 3500 feet deep as strong onshore flow remains intact. Clouds will fill in across the South Coast Basin later this morning. To the north, the marine layer depth is likely a little shallower, around 2000 feet deep currently. Clouds are making a decent run up the Salinas River Valley and low clouds and patchy dense fog seem like a sure bet for the San Luis Obispo County portion of the Salinas River Valley.

This looks to be last day of a deep marine layer as ridging aloft can be seen building into the West Coast this morning. Subsidence aloft will start to assert its influence on the marine intrusion and low cloudiness will likely clear a little better for areas north of Point Conception. A weak cold air advection pattern setting up just north of the area will scour out the low clouds field through this afternoon and flip the flow pattern to weak offshore across the Central Coast late tonight. South of Point Conception, the flow will turn more northerly by tonight, but there will not be enough of an offshore push to knock out the stratus field and its associated marine intrusion. Some semblance of marine layer depth will likely remain in place for the weekend and keep night through morning low clouds and fog in the forecast. EPS cloud cover means and 3-km WRF time height sections back up this idea, with less cloud cover and moisture in the boundary layer for the northern terminals, while keeping cloud cover means higher and moisture in the boundary layer for KLAX. With the ridging aloft building in, there is some concern Sunday could be equally gloomy at the beaches as warming aloft with the subsiding air could tighten the marine inversion. EPS cloud cover means suggest this to be a 10-20 percent chance of occurring. For now, the forecast keeps a persistent marine layer depth in place and night through morning low clouds and fog continuing across the Southland.

With high pressure aloft building in, a brief warm up, establishing today, will peak on Sunday, especially away from the coast and outside the marine influence. The warmest locations will likely be the interior valleys. Still, most valley locations will warm into the upper 70s and 80s on Sunday. The hottest locations with the brief warm-up will be out in the Antelope Valley, where Palmdale and Lancaster could record their first 90 degree day of 2024. in the calendar year. The forecast goes with 89 degrees for KPMD and KWJF, but the latest NBM solutions indicate there to be a 5 percent chance of KWJF hitting the 90 degrees mark and a 35 percent chance of KPMD touching 90 degrees on Sunday.

Southwest flow aloft redevelops on Sunday night and into Monday.
EPS cloud cover means respond in advertising a broader night through morning low cloud field across the coastal and valley terminals. Local 3-km WRF solutions deepen the marine layer depth at KLAX from around 1500 feet deep on Sunday afternoon to near 2500 feet deep by Monday morning. To the north, local 3-km WRF solutions bring back the boundary layer moisture aggressively for KSMX, forming a 1200 foot marine layer depth on Sunday evening and deepening it to 2500 feet deep by Monday morning. With southwest flow aloft developing and strengthening through the period, the seems to make sense and the forecast follows with this idea. The forecast introduces a cooling trend for Monday and add a bit more low cloud coverage into Monday morning.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...20/406 AM.

The cooling trend will turn much more significant into Tuesday and Wednesday as a trough over the Central Pacific Ocean near 160W moves into region around midweek. Due to its cutoff nature, the forecast models and ensembles are struggling to get a handle on this trough. EPS, GEFS, and CMC forecast ensemble members have backed off some on the precipitable water means and the number of solutions with precipitation. Still, pattern recognition of this trough in the deterministic model solutions suggest a favorable pattern developing for showers toward mid-to-late next week. GFS and ECMWF solutions have some timing differences, but offer up a trough with a decent southerly fetch. The difluent flow pattern that sets up would be conducive for convection to develop, especially over the mountains. Slight chance PoPs remain in the forecast, most prevalent across the higher terrain of southwest California and breaking away from NBM values.

Forecast ensembles hint a better chance of rain with a reinforcing inside slider trough for late next week. The ECMWF deterministic solutions shows a piece of a low pressure system in Siberia ejecting out across the Pacific and phasing with the semi- permanent Aleutian Low. This wave overruns the ridge and drops quickly down into eastern Pacific Ocean by Thursday or Friday. A trough carves over southern California and this trough should pipes much colder air into the region. EPS solutions buy into a wet pattern for the mountains of southern California as ensemble means favor precipitation for KSDB, KL35, and KTSP. The forecast keeps a slight chance to chance across the higher terrain of southwest California, and continues to break away from NBM values.

Much caution should be placed in the forecast for late next week as the cutoff flow pattern could bring much change to the forecast period and showers could linger longer than what is indicated. It should be noted that cluster analysis favor height falls over the region with a trough axis over the state. Stay tuned as this portion of the forecast could differ greatly.

AVIATION
20/1052Z.

At 1030Z, the marine inversion at KLAX was based at 2500 feet.
The top of the inversion was 4800 feet with a temperature of 14 degrees Celsius.

Overall for 12Z TAF package, high confidence in desert TAFs and moderate in coastal/valley TAFs. Current MVFR/IFR conditions are expected to dissipate by late this morning/early this afternoon, but timing could be +/-2 hours of current forecasts. For tonight, moderate confidence in CIG/VSBY restrictions remaining confined to coastal sites south of Point Conception.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Timing of dissipation of MVFR CIGs could be +/-2 hours of current 21Z forecast. For tonight, high confidence in return of MVFR conditions, but low confidence in timing (could be +/- 4 hours of current 05Z forecast). No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Timing of dissipation of MVFR CIGs could be +/- 2 hours of current 18Z forecast. For tonight, there is a 20-30% chance that IFR/MVFR conditions could return after 06Z.

MARINE
20/352 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Today through Sunday night, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and choppy seas are expected, generally north of San Nicolas Island with the most widespread winds across PZZ670/673. For Monday through Wednesday, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. SCA level winds are expected in the afternoon and evening hours both today and Sunday. For Monday through Wednesday, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For most of the southern waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels today through Wednesday. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds late Monday afternoon through Monday night.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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