Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ladera Heights, CA

.SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...18/938 PM.

Quiet evening again with so far little or no stratus over the coastal waters. May get a few patches near the coast very late tonight, otherwise just some off and on high clouds through Wednesday with slightly warmer temperatures.

Temperatures appear set to take a significant jump Thu and especially Friday with the next offshore push and compressional heating. Models still forecasting a 4-6mb offshore LAX-DAG gradient and with 950 temps around 21c (70F), local historical guidance suggests highs in the low to mid 80s across coast/valleys of LA and mid to upper 70s along the Central Coast. For now have trended temperatures towards the NBM 95th percentile, which matches pretty closely with the NAM MET guidance, but is still a few degrees below the historical guidance so forecast highs may still rise as we get closer if forecast gradients remain about the same.

There will be some light to locally moderate Santa Ana winds but latest NAM shows slightly weaker winds aloft than yesterday. Seems like at best a very low end advisory level event for coast/valleys (gusts peaking around 35 mph).

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...18/253 PM.

The weekend will likely be a lull in wind for most of Southwest California with continued warming for many areas as a ridge peaks across the region with widespread highs in the 70s with some 80s possible in the warmest areas.

Early next week northwest to northerly flow will likely increase, possibly leading to advisory northwest to north winds focused across prone areas such as southwest Santa Barbara County and interior mountains and deserts including the I-5 corridor in the mountains. Onshore trends or a possible eddy for southern areas will favor an increase in night to morning low clouds and fog especially for coastal areas of Los Angeles, Ventura, and the Santa Barbara County South Coast. Above normal temperatures will likely continue except for near the coast where increased marine influence may reduce temperatures closer to normal.

Rain chances are minimal to none through to near the end of the month if not into early March, when there is some signal for wet weather to potentially return.

AVIATION
19/0724Z.

At 0534Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 600 ft deep with an inversion up to 1400 ft with a maximum temperature of 17 C.

Moderate to high confidence in forecast. LIFR to IFR conditions are possible from 08Z-16Z for KLAX and KLGB, with a slight chance at KSMO and KPRB.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF, there is a 40 percent chance VFR conditions through the period. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

MARINE
18/930 PM.

The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level northwest winds will continue to shrink in coverage through Wednesday morning, then the winds will strengthen again Wednesday afternoon and night, expanding into the nearshore waters of the Central Coast and western Santa Barbara Channel. These expanse of the winds will change little on Thursday, but there is a moderate to high chance of GALES from near Point Conception south to San Nicolas Island and in the vicinity of the Channel Islands. The winds will shift to northeasterly Friday morning and there is a moderate chance of low-end SCA level winds from Ventura through Santa Monica, and a low chance of such winds from Orange County to Catalina. Moderate confidence in relatively light winds to follow over the weekend, except for low-end SCA northwest winds beyond 20 miles from shore.

The currently large SCA-level seas will continue to subside through tonight. The seas are running larger than models are indicating, as is usual for larger seas. Seas will build again Wednesday Night into Thursday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 PM Wednesday to 2 AM PST Thursday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Thursday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).