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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1243 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
This afternoon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon and evening, then becoming W after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 6 to 9 ft. Showers. A chance of tstms through the night, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 1243 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure over the southeast will shift farther off the coast tonight into the weekend. Hazardous conditions are expected with a cold front on Sunday with improving conditions Monday.

FXUS62 KILM 071711 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1211 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

SYNOPSIS
Warming trend will take place into the weekend as high pressure shifts off the Southeast coast and moves farther off to the east. A cold front will bring an unsettled Sunday that will include heavy rain, gusty winds, and perhaps some thunder. High pressure builds in behind the cold front for the first half of next week, bringing cool and dry weather once again.

UPDATE
Quiet, but cool day with no changes to forecast. See Aviation discussion below.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Today...Forecast confidence is high with no significant concerns. Expect high pressure to build in with dry weather prevailing. Despite abundant sunshine the cold start this morning and chilly air mass in place will limit warming and keep highs a bit cooler than Wednesday (and still below normal levels).

Tonight...Forecast confidence is moderate to high with no significant concerns. Surface high pressure will be slipping offshore with the mid-level ridge moving overhead. High clouds will be increasing and the increasing dewpoints will lead to a bit warmer night compared to this morning but there is some uncertainty regarding how cold it gets. We leaned toward the cooler side of the guidance which seems to be verifying better of late. Thus, some of the normally colder inland spots should still reach around the freezing mark, which is about 5 degrees below normal for this time of year.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Dry weather and warming temps in store for the short term period with high pressure offshore kicking off WAA into the weekend. Southwest flow aloft with advect plenty of cirrus across the Carolinas Friday and Friday night. Highs Friday in the low 60s will only drop to mid to upper 40s Friday night.
Even warmer weather Saturday as temps push into the low 70s, with scattered low-mid clouds from shallow isentropic lift.
Dewpoints in the upper 40s daybreak Saturday will increase to around 60 by end of the day. Saturday night lows will be closer to our normal highs this time of year, with upper 50s forecasted.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The main weather event remains Sunday into Sunday night as a strong upper trough and surface cold front looks to bring gusty winds, heavy rain, and possibly a severe threat to the area.
Southerly winds ahead of the front increase early Sunday before intensifying further Sunday evening into early overnight hours along the coast as the surface cyclone to the north deepens.
Currently have gusts of 30- 35 mph forecasted for Sunday afternoon and evening, but potential remains for gradient gusts to 40 mph or higher. Rain chances increase during the day as the front approaches, with heaviest rain likely near the front with greatest upper level support Sunday evening. Instability looks a little better with latest guidance compared to past couple days Sunday afternoon, but remains less than 500 J/kg with weak lapse rates aloft. Given increasing wind profiles, may be a high shear-low cape scenario and there is a low chance for severe weather Sunday, mainly from strong wind gusts. Current QPF forecast is around 0.75-1.5".

Cold front and upper trough sweep through Sunday night, with dry and cool weather in place by daybreak Monday. CAA won't be particularly strong behind the front as zonal flow sets up aloft and a low level ridge moves across the Southeast for the start of next week. Temps below normal Monday will slowly increase into the mid-week period, with dry weather prevailing courtesy of strong subsidence aloft.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR conditions with mainly clear skies and light winds across SE NC and NE SC through the 18Z TAF period as high pressure shifts off the Southeast coast. W winds will back slightly to the SW tonight remaining very light.

Extended Outlook...MVFR ceilings could develop as early as Friday night but more likely late Saturday night through Sunday night as a strong cold front moves through with some heavy showers and possible storms. Thus, IFR or even LIFR conditions are possible as well.
Winds will also be strong/gusty Sunday/Sunday night.

MARINE
Through Tonight...Forecast confidence is high. High pressure will shift east across the area with minimal winds/seas, especially after daybreak today.

Friday through Monday...Benign marine conditions continue Friday through Saturday with high pressure just offshore maintaining SW-S winds around 10 kts or less. Seas around 2 ft from S wind wave and weakening ENE swell. Hazardous conditions will develop quickly on Sunday as southerly winds and seas increase ahead of an approaching system. South winds 15-20 kts Saturday night and seas 3-4 ft will increase to 20-25 kts, gusts to 35 kts, and seas 6-9 ft by late Sunday afternoon. Will also see increased chance for thunderstorms over the waters Sunday afternoon into evening hours ahead of the front. Cold front is expected to move across the waters Sunday night, with northwest winds expected Monday. Seas will slowly improve late Sunday night through Monday, currently forecasted to drop below SCA by Monday afternoon though will have 2-3 ft NW wind wave combining with weakening 3-4 ft S swell by that time.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Wilmington Beach
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Thu -- 01:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:32 AM EST     3.57 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:49 AM EST     0.85 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:44 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:38 PM EST     3.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:08 PM EST     0.60 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Wilmington Beach, North Carolina, Tide feet

Campbell Island
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Thu -- 01:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:26 AM EST     3.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:48 AM EST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:44 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:36 PM EST     3.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:14 PM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Campbell Island, North Carolina, Tide feet

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Wilmington, NC,