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Marine Weather and Tides Carolina Beach, NC Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 7:14AM

Sunset 5:30PM

Monday January 20, 2020 11:50 PM EST (04:50 UTC)

Moonrise 3:24AM

Moonset 1:57PM

Illumination 17%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carolina Beach, NC

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Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 210421 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1121 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. Arctic air will remain across the Carolinas for the 1st half of this week. Low pressure will develop off the Ga and Fl coasts Tue and deepen rapidly as it pulls away from the U.S. mainland Tue night thru Wed. High pressure will follow and build in from the north through late Wed, before finally moving offshore Thu. An area of low pressure should bring showers to the area Fri into early Sat, along with milder temperatures. Dry weather is expected early next week.

UPDATE.

Marine: Based on latest models and adjacent coastal and offshore prognostications, have decided to raise a Gale Warning (within 24 to 36 hrs) in lieu of a Gale Watch for all waters. Low pressure progged to develop off the Ga and Fl coasts Tue and rapidly deepen Tue night thru Wed as it accelerates away from the U.S. mainland. Winds will frequently gust up to 35 kt Tue night into Wed. Seas will be limited in height due to a restricted fetch given the northerly wind directions inrelation to the configuration of the ILM coastline. Will likely observe back-swell from this low in the later periods

Public: For the ILM Coastline, winds will gust to 25 to 35 mph Tue night into Wed. Will mention in the HWO but it still remains below Wind Advisory criteria.

For the inland counties Tue night, wind chill readings will drop down to the mid to upper teens.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Surface high pressure continues to build into the area advecting cold arctic air over the eastern half of the US. Temperatures will be some 10-15 degrees below normal overnight. Given warm soil temps and a continued tight pressure gradient, we are likely to not realize the true potential of this cold air mass despite mostly clear skies. Current thinking is that lows will reach mid 20s inland with mid and upper 20s along the coast.

On a larger scale, a vigorous short wave will traverse the southeast US tonight and into Tuesday morning. Modeled precipitable water values will remain around a quarter of an inch. Therefore, no precip is expected although we could see a few mid- and upper-level clouds, especially offshore. On Tuesday, the shortwave will interact with the baroclinic boundary between the cP air mass over land and the Gulf Stream waters. A low pressure system will develop and start to rapidly intensify off of the Florida coast. The increasing pressure gradient will cause winds to increase throughout the day and overnight Tuesday leading to mixing at the surface and lows barely dipping into the upper 20s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. A very strong upper trough diving almost into the Bahamas on Wednesday will support surface low pressure developing about 500 miles southeast of Cape Fear. Dry air wrapping in should keep our area precip and cloud free. The arctic air will continue to modify as the center of the high reaches the Mid-Atlantic states, and Wednesday's highs should approach 50 degrees. Winds should finally die away Wednesday night and despite warm advection lows should fall into the upper 20s inland and lower 30s near the coast.

By Thursday cirrus clouds should begin to increase as subtropical moisture is pulled northward ahead of the next trough digging into the Plains states. The low and mid levels will remain dry, and highs should reach 50-55 degrees.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Several healthy upper level disturbances should phase together across the central Plains states Thursday night into Friday. This will support a surface low moving from Missouri across the Ohio Valley on Friday, with a secondary low developing along the Gulf Coast. Gulf moisture advected north ahead of this system should lead to increasing cloudiness Thursday night, with showers developing from southwest to northeast during the day Friday.

Models are in surprisingly good agreement for a system this far out, showing a peak in shower probabilities Friday afternoon into the first half of Friday night. My forecast PoPs peak at 60-70 percent during this timeframe, and later updates may need to add isolated thunder Friday night with GFS forecast soundings showing CAPE rising to 250 J/kg. The weak cold front associated with this system should pass across the area late Friday night, about 6 hours faster than was thought yesterday. I've adjusted PoP and temperature forecasts down for Saturday accordingly.

The remainder of the period (Saturday night through Monday) looks dry and seasonable with light offshore winds expected.

AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. One line TAFs will do the trick at this time due to clear skies and winds that will remain unchanged out of the north. Some stratocu is possible on Tuesday with an upper vort, however it probably will not be a ceiling.

Extended Outlook . VFR conditions thru Thursday. Next storm system approaches the region for late this week.

MARINE. Northerly winds around 10-15 knots continue to aggravate a disturbed sea with waves 3-5 feet. Small Craft Conditions set to return this evening due to an upper-level shortwave interacting with the warm Gulf Stream to produce a deepening low pressure system off of the coast of Florida. The synoptic pressure gradient will tighten between the strengthening low and building high pressure over the heartland of the US. As a result, expect breezy conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday as winds howl at 20-30 knots with sporadic gusts just below Gale criteria. Seas will continue to build through Wednesday morning with some areas reaching 7-9 feet along the NC coastal waters.

Strong low pressure several hundred miles off the Florida east coast will move slowly out to sea Wednesday and Thursday. Although strong northerly winds affecting the coastal waters of the Carolinas should diminish on Thursday, a significant long- period easterly swell will continue through Thursday night and even into Friday. This should lead to a continued need for a Small Craft Advisory, especially north of Cape Fear where this easterly swell will be most easily felt. Sea heights as large as 8 feet remain possible inside of 20 miles from shore Wednesday, with 6-7 foot seas possible near and north of Cape Fear on Thursday. Models have come into very good agreement with the specifics of how strong this storm system becomes and how quickly it departs the western Atlantic.

High pressure will build across the Mid-Atlantic states on Thursday, then will move offshore on Friday. Low pressure developing to our west should spread rain and increasing southerly wind across the area Friday afternoon and evening. Another period of Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible Friday into Friday night.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 3 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ250- 252-254-256. Gale Warning from 3 PM Tuesday to noon EST Wednesday for AMZ250-252-254-256.

SYNOPSIS . TRA UPDATE . DCH NEAR TERM . 21 SHORT TERM . TRA LONG TERM . TRA AVIATION . mbB MARINE . DCH/TRA/MBB/21

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC	12 mi	42 min	NE 16 G 25	37°F	55°F		1027.6 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC	12 mi	40 min			55°F	3 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC	14 mi	56 min		35°F	54°F		1027.4 hPa
WLON7	14 mi	56 min		33°F	54°F		1028 hPa
41108	22 mi	50 min			55°F	3 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC	29 mi	42 min	NNE 18 G 27	38°F	58°F		1026.9 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2)	33 mi	42 min	NNE 14 G 19	35°F	54°F		1029 hPa
41119	34 mi	120 min			54°F	1 ft
SSBN7	34 mi	58 min				2 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy	42 mi	30 min	NNE 18 G 23	42°F	64°F		1025.9 hPa	33°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC

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12 AM

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7 AM

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11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

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Last 24hr

NW16 G20

NW14 G19

N12 G20

N15 G20

N13 G17

N13 G17

N13 G16

N11 G15

N12 G18

N17 G21

N16

N15

N12 G17

N11 G14

N11 G15

N10 G13

N9 G13

N13 G16

N11 G14

N9 G12

N9

N11 G15

N12

N13 G16

1 day ago

SW21 G26

SW17 G21

SW19 G25

SW21 G27

SW24 G33

SW22 G28

SW20 G28

SW17 G22

SW15

SW13 G20

SW14 G19

SW14 G17

W14 G20

W8 G15

W9 G17

W15 G20

NW10 G15

NW13 G17

NW6 G9

NW10

NW10 G14

NW7 G10

N12 G15

N16 G21

2 days ago

N12 G15

N12

NE17

NE12 G17

N11 G15

N11 G15

N10 G15

N14

N12

N13 G16

NE12 G15

NE14

NE10 G13

E10

E7

E8

SE3

S4

S16

SW14

S14

SW15

S17

SW22

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC	11 mi	55 min	N 4	10.00 mi	Fair	31°F	17°F	56%	1028.1 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC	17 mi	57 min	NE 7	10.00 mi	Fair	28°F	18°F	66%	1028.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)

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Last 24hr

N14 G19

N8 G19

N11 G19

N13 G22

N12 G20

N7

N9 G14

N8

N9

N10 G20

NE11 G19

N10 G15

NE6

N11

N8

N9

N8 G15

N7

N4

N3

Calm

Calm

N4

N6

1 day ago

SW9 G16

SW7

SW9 G15

SW14 G18

SW17 G21

W15 G20

SW17 G23

SW15 G22

SW14 G19

SW13 G18

SW12 G21

W13 G18

W7

SW7

W11 G17

W10

W10 G17

W5

NW5

Calm

N4

N8

N7

N9

2 days ago

N4

NE3

N3

N3

N6

N6

NE5

NE5

NE5

NE7

E11 G15

E8

E9 G16

E6

E6

E5

E3

S6

S10 G15

S8 G15

SW6 G14

SW9

SW7 G14

SW6

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Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington Beach, North Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (23,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC

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