Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Carolina Beach, NC

UPDATE
No major changes made to the public/marine forecasts.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Quiet weather featuring unseasonable warmth to continue. In fact tomorrow will wind up a category warmer than today was, away from the oceanic influence. Our WAA has tapered so this is as much an effect from the much warmer start offered by tonight's lows in the mid 50s to near 60. As dewpoints keep rising Wednesday in SW flow Wednesday night's lows universally in the low 60s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
wed night through thur night Quiet short term period with main focus being above normal temperatures and increasing cloudiness from the SW with high pressure offshore. Lows will be a bit cooler Wednesday night but will still be in the upper 50s to lower 60s for both nights. Daytime highs Thursday will be ~5-10 degrees above normal in the mid to upper 80s. Clouds will increase late Thursday into Thursday night in the form of high clouds as moisture streams in aloft.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Warm conditions continue as a cold front approaches the area for the end of the week. Rain chances will start to increase late Friday with some thunderstorms possible Friday night into Saturday ahead of the main line associated with the front. Highest thunder chances will be late Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening as the greater trough moves through aloft. Looking at ensembles and past model runs, shear is around 30 kts which could support some storm organization, but it will depend on when the line moves through. The timing of the frontal passage continues to be slower, which would displace it from the time of peak instability. Higher shear values and better forcing look to remain to our north. The front looks to be offshore by Sunday with temperatures more near normal, highs in the 70s. Coldest night is currently Monday night with lows near 50 possible.

AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High confidence in VFR conditions through 00Z Thu as high pressure prevails. Very small risk of vsby restrictions from shallow fog near daybreak Wed.
Another dry night on tap with lows a bit above normal in the mid to upper 50s inland and lower to mid 60s near the coast.
Extended Outlook...Generally VFR. MVFR/IFR is possible Thursday morning in ground fog.

MARINE
Through wednesday... High pressure remains offshore through the period. Wind will tend to remain out of the SW with some increase in speed heading into Wednesday as the high is suppressed from the north by a boundary. Seas will build to 2-3 ft with the increase in wind speeds and also by a hint of SE swell, though these longer period waves will tend to remain south of the area.

Wednesday Night through Sunday...SW flow will hold through the majority of the period due to offshore high pressure. This high will start to move further offshore with the approach of a cold front towards the end of the work week. The tightening pressure gradient will increase wind speeds to 15-20 kts but gusts are expected to remain below SCA criteria at this time. Winds will turn to the NE late in the period behind the front. Seas will slowly increase from ~2 ft to ~4 ft by the end of the work week with the SW wind wave becoming dominant Friday at 3 ft and 5 seconds. A line of showers and storms will move over the waters with the frontal passage.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.