Tuesday, August20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carolina Beach, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 7:55PM Tuesday August 20, 2019 11:51 AM EDT (15:51 UTC) Moonrise 9:54PMMoonset 10:01AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 920 Am Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Rest of today..SW winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day, then showers and tstms likely through the night.
Sat..S winds 10 kt, becoming e. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 920 Am Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Bermuda high pressure will dominate today thru Fri with S to sw flow across the local waters. The afternoon sea breeze each day will result with winds nearshore around 15 kt. A cold front will drop south into the area waters late Friday, then stalling across the region thru the upcoming weekend. Isolated to scattered tstms each day will become more numerous once the cold front stalls across the area by the upcoming weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carolina Beach, NC
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location: 34.03, -77.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 201320
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
920 am edt Tue aug 20 2019

Synopsis
Bermuda high and piedmont trough, typical of summertime,
will persist thru Friday with scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. A cold
front will drop southward into the area Friday, stalling
across the area for much of the upcoming weekend and
producing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.

Update
No major changes necessary with this forecast update.

Near term through Wednesday
Another repeat of yesterday except for a better chance for
convection inland and later in the day and evening. Locations
across the central and western carolinas look to be more
active than yesterday with some of this convection migrating
eastward to the ilm CWA to the i-95 corridor. This activity will
be slow to dissipate and could see activity ongoing after
midnight Wed but overall should be in a dissipating stage given
the loss of heating and some stabilization. MAX temps today will
nearly be normal for this time of the year. Tonights lows will
remain above normal with widespread 70s.

For wed, model consensus indicates a better chance for
convection along the sea breeze then what occurred during
the preceding 2 days. Models upstream late Tue indicate a
mcc MCS that will push southeastward, reaching the appalachian
mountains early Wed and if still together after crossing them,
could affect the ilm CWA during daylight wed. Will indicate
pops hier Wed when compared to tue. Wed temps will run 1 to 3
degrees hier than Tue which makes it slightly hier than the
norm.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night
Conditions will remain steady state for the short term
period, Wednesday night through Friday morning. Good chance pops
reside over the area via the sea breeze and to some extend
height falls with the approaching mid level trough. A subtle
piedmont trough will be a player as well. Highs show a similar
stable trend with values in the upper 80s to lower to middle 90s
or so. Lows remain in the steamy 70s.

Long term Friday through Monday
Unsettled period in store for the extended the question is for
how long. Guidance is mixed on the southern extent of a cold
front, the main catalyst for the unsettled conditions, for the
latter part of the weekend. The ECMWF shows a wetter scenario
based on handling of a system drifting north across the gulf of
mexico. Overall we have maintained a slow drying trend from
north to south late in the period with really no dry periods.

Temperature guidance forecast remains unchanged.

Aviation 13z Tuesday through Saturday
PredominantlyVFR this TAF period. With bermuda high offshore,
typical summertime pattern today with isolated storms possible
along sea breeze this afternoon. Scattered high clouds
throughout TAF period being advected from the southwest, with
scattered diurnal cumulus this afternoon. Low pressure currently
along the sc ga border will migrate northeastward throughout
the day, and may bring rain to inland terminals after sunset
tonight. South- southwest winds through tomorrow, with higher
winds around 10kts along the coast with sea breeze this
afternoon.

Extended... MainlyVFR thru Thu with brief MVFR ifr periods each
day due to aftn evening convection and fog and or stratus
around daybreak. A cold front will drop south and stall across
the region Fri thru sat. This will lead to an increase in tsra
coverage with MVFR ifr conditions possible at any time of the
day or night.

Marine
Today thru wed:
the sfc ridge axis extending from the bermuda high will extend
onshore across southern sc today. The ridge axis will drop
southward and onshore in the vicinity of ga and florida by late
wed. The sfc pg will be conducive to 10 to 15 kt speeds today
and again into Wed with progs indicating some pinching of the
gradient late Wed and especially Wed night. Nearshore both days,
an active and inland progressing sea breeze will result in s
winds around 15 kt each aftn and early evening. Significant seas
will hold around 3 ft with some 4 footers by late Wed across the
nc waters. Wind driven 3 to 5 second period wind-waves chop will
dominate each aftn thru early evening, especially near shore. At
all other times, a SE swell around 9 second periods will be the
more dominant.

Wed night thru sat:
south to southwest winds of 10-15 knots will continue for the
first part of the short and long term periods. Guidance is still
trending toward a frontal passage basically Saturday with a
northeast flow ensuing. As would be expected the flow is modest
with speeds remaining in the 10-15 knot range. Significant seas
will be 2- 3 feet with some four footers possibly sprinkled in.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Shk
update... Mas
near term... Dch
short term... Shk
long term... Shk
aviation... Vao
marine... Dch shk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 12 mi44 min W 5.8 G 9.7 83°F 83°F1020.9 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 12 mi42 min 84°F2 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 14 mi58 min WSW 8 G 11 85°F 84°F1020.7 hPa
WLON7 14 mi58 min 87°F 85°F1021.3 hPa
41108 22 mi52 min 85°F2 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi44 min W 7.8 G 12 81°F 85°F1021.3 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 33 mi44 min WSW 7.8 G 12 82°F 85°F1021.5 hPa
41119 34 mi92 min 85°F2 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 42 mi42 min SW 3.9 G 5.8 83°F 83°F1021.2 hPa77°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC11 mi57 minSW 710.00 miFair87°F73°F65%1021.3 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC17 mi59 minWSW 910.00 miFair87°F73°F63%1021.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6SW8SW10S9SW9SW8SW8SW9SW7SW6----------------------W6SW7SW6
1 day agoSW9W8SW11SW10SW11SW10SW8SW8SW5SW7SW9
G14
------W8----W5W5NW3W5W5SW6S5
2 days agoS8SW6SW8SW12
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SW8CalmSE3E5S4S5CalmW3S8
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Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington Beach, North Carolina
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Wilmington Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:06 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:58 AM EDT     3.94 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:19 PM EDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:11 PM EDT     3.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.732.21.40.70.50.71.42.43.23.83.93.83.22.51.71.10.80.91.42.33.13.63.9

Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:16 AM EDT     4.05 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:17 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:23 PM EDT     3.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:40 PM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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443.62.921.20.70.40.51.42.63.63.93.93.73.12.31.61.10.70.71.22.23.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.