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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 315 Am Est Sun Dec 3 2023
Through 7 am..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..W winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the evening, then becoming N 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming w. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

AMZ200 315 Am Est Sun Dec 3 2023
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Southwest winds today will shift westerly tonight as a cold front pushes offshore. A second cold front will move across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing another period of gusty winds.

FXUS62 KILM 030812 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 312 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
Unseasonably warm and humid weather will continue through today. A cold front will sweep this moisture offshore later tonight. Cooler and drier weather is expected for Monday into Tuesday, then turning colder Wednesday and Thursday behind a second cold front. High pressure should reach the Carolinas by Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Unseasonably humid air with dewpoints well into the 60s inland and 70s offshore has help produce areas of fog this morning. Fog is densest off the Brunswick County coast and also along and west of I- 95. Increasing southwest winds should help scour this fog out this morning but we'll continue to closely monitor visibility trends.

A cold front now approaching the southern Appalachians should quickly move east today and will reach the coast this evening.
Despite plenty of clouds, temperatures rising into the mid 70s ahead of the front will promote enough vertical mixing to bring down gusts over 25 mph today.

Confidence is lowest today with regard to rain chances. The remnant of a convective cluster along the Gulf coast is now spreading northeastward into southern South Carolina and could bring some rain to the coast mainly south of Cape Fear before daybreak. Subsidence north of this decaying convection appears to place a convective cap near 850 mb across our area through early afternoon. This, plus the arrival of drier air aloft later in the day, gives me concern we may see very little shower activity during the daylight hours. I've kept 20-30 percent chances in the forecast but wouldn't be surprised to see even less coverage than this. Significantly drier air arriving with the front this evening should completely end precip chances tonight.



SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
The mid level pattern remain southwest early on with an eventual transition to a west/northwest flow through the week.
For the short term period expect only a few clouds with a passing shortwave perhaps late Monday into Tuesday otherwise sunny and or clear. Temperatures drift back down to near seasonal norms with highs both afternoons in the lower to middle 60s (cooler Tuesday)
with lows a couple of degrees either side of 40.



LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The extended period continues to look dry and cool to cold as mid level troughing deepens across the Tennessee Valley through midweek. The pattern quickly transitions to more of a zonal flow in time. The only scintilla of rain occurs with the potent shortwave as it develops offshore but this for now is well off the northeast. As for temperatures, 850mb numbers below freezing move across later Wednesday into Thursday resulting in a couple of days with highs in the 50s and lows near freezing Thursday moderating thereafter.



AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A patchwork of low stratus and at least two higher cloud layers will make aviation forecasts difficult this morning. Winds are currently quite light which has allowed low stratus and fog to develop from the two Myrtle Beach airports (CRE and MYR) inland across Lumberton (LBT) and Florence (FLO). Low level winds will veer southwesterly and increase between 09z-10z which should help scour out the low clouds and fog first across South Carolina and LBT, finally clearing out conditions at ILM closer to daybreak, 12z. Confidence on precise timing is low, although confidence on the overall synoptic pattern is somewhat higher.

After 12z, generally VFR conditions will develop along the coast. Inland there is a moderate potential for MVFR ceilings and the potential development of convective showers during the late morning and early afternoon hours. This activity may move eastward toward CRE and MYR during the mid afternoon hours. A surface cold front will sweep offshore during the evening bringing dry air and VFR conditions throughout.

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions expected to dominate the extended period. Another cold front is forecast to slide through early Wednesday and low confidence exists for MVFR cigs to accompany or follow this frontal passage.

MARINE
Through Tonight... Dewpoints measured in the lower 70s at the Frying Pan Shoals buoy are significant higher than nearshore water temperatures in the upper 50s to around 60. This has caused fog to develop in spots, earlier indicated by webcams in Southport to be dense. This fog won't last much longer as increasing southwest winds should mostly dissipate this fog by daybreak.

A cold front now approaching the southern Appalachians should move quickly eastward and make its way off the coast this evening.
Southwest winds 15-20 knots are expected today ahead of the front, veering westerly 10-15 knots behind the front overnight. Seas should build as high as 4-5 feet later today, but it appears conditions won't require a Small Craft Advisory.

Monday through Friday...Conditions not unusual with mostly cold air advection will be in place this week over the coastal waters. Outside of an interval or two later Tuesday and late week winds will be west to mostly northwest. The strongest speeds will occur overnight Monday into Tuesday morning and once again late Wednesday into Thursday morning. It appears small craft conditions are a given with the second event and if trends from the past couple of seasons remain in place a gale warning is not out of the question. Significant seas will be higher with the stronger wind intervals but be mostly confined to the outer waters via the offshore flow.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for AMZ252.

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Wilmington Beach
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Sun -- 05:03 AM EST     0.67 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:19 AM EST     3.92 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:05 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:47 PM EST     0.84 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:52 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:52 PM EST     3.27 feet High Tide
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Wilmington Beach, North Carolina, Tide feet

Campbell Island
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Sun -- 12:53 AM EST     3.37 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:05 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:05 PM EST     3.79 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:01 PM EST     0.49 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:52 PM EST     Moonrise
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Campbell Island, North Carolina, Tide feet

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