Tuesday, July7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Carolina Beach, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 8:28PM Tuesday July 7, 2020 8:29 PM EDT (00:29 UTC) Moonrise 9:40PMMoonset 7:21AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 616 Pm Edt Tue Jul 7 2020
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers and a chance of tstms, mainly after midnight.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms in the morning, then showers likely with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 616 Pm Edt Tue Jul 7 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Low pressure across inland georgia will move off the south carolina coast late Wednesday, possibly becoming a tropical cyclone as it moves farther offshore Thursday and Friday. Widespread showers and Thunderstorms are expected tonight and Wednesday, followed by a slow decrease in coverage Thursday and Friday. A cold front will approach from the west Saturday and stall nearby this weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carolina Beach, NC
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location: 34.03, -77.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 072339 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 739 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage tonight through Thursday as low pressure approaches the SC coast. This low could acquire some tropical characteristics as it slides offshore Thursday and Friday. A front approaching from the north will stall nearby this weekend with scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing. Much warmer temperatures are also expected.

UPDATE. Biggest change was to focus high PoPs across the Pee Dee region now, with convective focus shifting to the South Carolina coast by late this evening as a wave of showers and embedded t-storms moves northward and onshore. This activity is expected to then spread across the Cape Fear region of North Carolina late tonight, with an additional 1-2 inches of rain possible. Heavy rain potential has been added to the forecast tonight and tomorrow. No significant changes were to other forecast elements.

Note: NWS HQ computer issues are preventing gridded "point-and- click" forecasts from updating on the weather.gov website. Technicians are troubleshooting the problem.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Main concern over the next 36 to 48 hours is the potential for excessive rainfall leading to localized flooding of poor drainage and low lying areas.

Approaching low pressure system will bring periods of heavy rainfall for portions of the forecast area. Atmospheric moisture is high and lift associated with the approaching storm system will be sufficient for showers and thunderstorms for much of today through Wednesday. Rainfall totals through Wednesday afternoon could be between 1 and 2 inches inland to between 2 and 4 inches along the coast. Locally higher amounts in stronger storms is also possible up to 5 inches by the end of Wednesday afternoon. The National Hurricane Center has identified the low pressure system as having the potential to become a tropical disturbance off the NC coastline . confidence is low for formation through Wednesday afternoon.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Low pressure will stall off the coast on Thursday and provide a focuses for widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. Localized flooding will be possible during the afternoon as peak heating interacts with the low pressure system. Severe weather continues to look unlikely, but isolated heavy downpours could lead to localized flooding concerns. Thursday night, the low will shift northward and along the Mid-Atlantic coast. A stalled frontal boundary will develop behind the exiting low and sit over eastern NC and SC through the weekend. This will be a focus for shower and thunderstorm activity on Friday with afternoon peak heating. Showers will diminish overnight with overnight lows in the low and mid 70s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. An upper-level trough will approach the area on Saturday and interact with the stalled front. This will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon. The upper trough will stall over the eastern US and continue the unsettled weather through the weekend and early next week. Models continue to show the upper-low becoming cut off and sitting in the area for the better part of a week. We will wait for future model changes to see how this develops, but unsettled weather looks to be a good bet for the long term forecast.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Low pressure centered across eastern Georgia will slowly move toward the South Carolina coast by Wednesday night. Deep moisture will support MVFR ceilings and waves of showers and isolated thunderstorms circling the low. Current rain inland across the FLO airport should diminish early this evening, but focus will shift to a developing area of showers and possible thunderstorms moving north across the South Carolina coastal waters and onshore before midnight. This activity should spread toward Wilmington late tonight, with MVFR to local IFR conditions expected. Low clouds will develop inland late tonight with IFR ceilings expected at FLO and possibly LBT. Waves of convection will redevelop during the day Wednesday. MVFR prevailing conditions may briefly fall to IFR beneath storms.

Extended Outlook . Low pressure will exit the South Carolina coast Wednesday night, possibly acquiring tropical characteristics while offshore Thursday and Friday. Diurnal convection will continue, especially near the coast, with brief MVFR to IFR conditions expected through the weekend.

MARINE. Significant wave heights two to three feet increasing to 4 feet beyond 10 NM heading into Wednesday from the south at 4 to 6 seconds with a light southeast swell at 8 to 10 seconds. Approaching low pressure system has a low chance of forming into a tropical depression off the NC coastal waters during the next 36 hours. Some thunderstorms are possible as a result of the incoming storm system, and some storms may produce locally higher winds and waves. Waterspouts are also possible for area beaches, mainly during the morning hours.

Low pressure just offshore on Thursday and early Friday will keep southerly winds 10-15 knots. Any impactful winds and seas will be well offshore. A stalled front will sit along the NC/SC coastline as the low pressure moves off to the NE on Friday. Winds will remain southerly at 10-15 knots through Saturday. As an upper-level trough approaches the Carolinas on Saturday, gradient winds will increase to 15-20 knots. Conditions will continue through the weekend and into early next week with the trough and slow moving front co- existing for several days. A continued southerly fetch should lead to near SCA conditions as waves grow to 4-5 feet by Sunday and early next week. The main threat through the long term will be daily shower and thunderstorm chances.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ107. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . TRA UPDATE . TRA NEAR TERM . MCK SHORT TERM . 21 LONG TERM . 21 AVIATION . TRA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 12 mi81 min SW 18 G 23 78°F 83°F1015.3 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 12 mi52 min 83°F3 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 14 mi59 min SSW 14 G 19 76°F 80°F1015 hPa
WLON7 14 mi59 min 76°F 83°F1015.5 hPa
41108 22 mi59 min 82°F3 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi81 min SSW 12 G 18 80°F 83°F1016.1 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 33 mi81 min S 14 G 19 79°F 82°F1015.1 hPa
41119 34 mi72 min 82°F3 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 42 mi169 min S 16 G 19 77°F 83°F74°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC11 mi34 minS 310.00 miFair77°F72°F87%1015.2 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC17 mi36 minSSW 410.00 miLight Rain75°F73°F96%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE7S7CalmS5SE5SE5SE5SE7S7S5S4
1 day agoS4S5S5S4S3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6E4SE6SE5SE8SE7SE7SE5S8S6S5S3S7
2 days agoSW6SW7SW4W5SW4W5W4W3NW3NW5W7W4NW6W4SW5SW6S6SW6S7S6S6S6S4S6

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington Beach, North Carolina
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Wilmington Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:48 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:46 AM EDT     3.67 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:48 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:15 PM EDT     4.48 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.22.110.200.51.32.233.53.73.32.61.80.90.200.51.42.43.44.14.54.3

Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:00 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:21 AM EDT     3.61 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:59 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:49 PM EDT     4.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.23.62.92.21.40.50.10.51.52.63.23.63.532.31.610.50.20.61.62.83.74.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.