Monday, January20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Carolina Beach, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:30PM Monday January 20, 2020 11:50 PM EST (04:50 UTC) Moonrise 3:24AMMoonset 1:57PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1038 Pm Est Mon Jan 20 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 am est Tuesday through Tuesday afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning...
Overnight..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Tue..N winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Tue night..N winds 25 to 30 kt with frequent gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
Wed..N winds 25 to 30 kt with frequent gusts up to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
Wed night..N winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming ne 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers through the day, then showers likely through the night.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, subsiding to 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
AMZ200 1038 Pm Est Mon Jan 20 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Arctic high pressure will build across the area from the mid-section of the u.s. Tonight thru Tue bringing strong northerly winds. Low pressure will develop just off the ga and fl coasts Tue. The low will quickly deepen as it accelerates away from the u.s. Mainland tonight thru Wed. For Wed night thru Fri, high pressure will ridge back across the area from the west along with elevated seas continuing.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carolina Beach, NC
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location: 34.03, -77.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 210421 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1121 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. Arctic air will remain across the Carolinas for the 1st half of this week. Low pressure will develop off the Ga and Fl coasts Tue and deepen rapidly as it pulls away from the U.S. mainland Tue night thru Wed. High pressure will follow and build in from the north through late Wed, before finally moving offshore Thu. An area of low pressure should bring showers to the area Fri into early Sat, along with milder temperatures. Dry weather is expected early next week.

UPDATE.

Marine: Based on latest models and adjacent coastal and offshore prognostications, have decided to raise a Gale Warning (within 24 to 36 hrs) in lieu of a Gale Watch for all waters. Low pressure progged to develop off the Ga and Fl coasts Tue and rapidly deepen Tue night thru Wed as it accelerates away from the U.S. mainland. Winds will frequently gust up to 35 kt Tue night into Wed. Seas will be limited in height due to a restricted fetch given the northerly wind directions inrelation to the configuration of the ILM coastline. Will likely observe back-swell from this low in the later periods

Public: For the ILM Coastline, winds will gust to 25 to 35 mph Tue night into Wed. Will mention in the HWO but it still remains below Wind Advisory criteria.

For the inland counties Tue night, wind chill readings will drop down to the mid to upper teens.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Surface high pressure continues to build into the area advecting cold arctic air over the eastern half of the US. Temperatures will be some 10-15 degrees below normal overnight. Given warm soil temps and a continued tight pressure gradient, we are likely to not realize the true potential of this cold air mass despite mostly clear skies. Current thinking is that lows will reach mid 20s inland with mid and upper 20s along the coast.

On a larger scale, a vigorous short wave will traverse the southeast US tonight and into Tuesday morning. Modeled precipitable water values will remain around a quarter of an inch. Therefore, no precip is expected although we could see a few mid- and upper-level clouds, especially offshore. On Tuesday, the shortwave will interact with the baroclinic boundary between the cP air mass over land and the Gulf Stream waters. A low pressure system will develop and start to rapidly intensify off of the Florida coast. The increasing pressure gradient will cause winds to increase throughout the day and overnight Tuesday leading to mixing at the surface and lows barely dipping into the upper 20s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. A very strong upper trough diving almost into the Bahamas on Wednesday will support surface low pressure developing about 500 miles southeast of Cape Fear. Dry air wrapping in should keep our area precip and cloud free. The arctic air will continue to modify as the center of the high reaches the Mid-Atlantic states, and Wednesday's highs should approach 50 degrees. Winds should finally die away Wednesday night and despite warm advection lows should fall into the upper 20s inland and lower 30s near the coast.

By Thursday cirrus clouds should begin to increase as subtropical moisture is pulled northward ahead of the next trough digging into the Plains states. The low and mid levels will remain dry, and highs should reach 50-55 degrees.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Several healthy upper level disturbances should phase together across the central Plains states Thursday night into Friday. This will support a surface low moving from Missouri across the Ohio Valley on Friday, with a secondary low developing along the Gulf Coast. Gulf moisture advected north ahead of this system should lead to increasing cloudiness Thursday night, with showers developing from southwest to northeast during the day Friday.

Models are in surprisingly good agreement for a system this far out, showing a peak in shower probabilities Friday afternoon into the first half of Friday night. My forecast PoPs peak at 60-70 percent during this timeframe, and later updates may need to add isolated thunder Friday night with GFS forecast soundings showing CAPE rising to 250 J/kg. The weak cold front associated with this system should pass across the area late Friday night, about 6 hours faster than was thought yesterday. I've adjusted PoP and temperature forecasts down for Saturday accordingly.

The remainder of the period (Saturday night through Monday) looks dry and seasonable with light offshore winds expected.

AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. One line TAFs will do the trick at this time due to clear skies and winds that will remain unchanged out of the north. Some stratocu is possible on Tuesday with an upper vort, however it probably will not be a ceiling.

Extended Outlook . VFR conditions thru Thursday. Next storm system approaches the region for late this week.

MARINE. Northerly winds around 10-15 knots continue to aggravate a disturbed sea with waves 3-5 feet. Small Craft Conditions set to return this evening due to an upper-level shortwave interacting with the warm Gulf Stream to produce a deepening low pressure system off of the coast of Florida. The synoptic pressure gradient will tighten between the strengthening low and building high pressure over the heartland of the US. As a result, expect breezy conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday as winds howl at 20-30 knots with sporadic gusts just below Gale criteria. Seas will continue to build through Wednesday morning with some areas reaching 7-9 feet along the NC coastal waters.

Strong low pressure several hundred miles off the Florida east coast will move slowly out to sea Wednesday and Thursday. Although strong northerly winds affecting the coastal waters of the Carolinas should diminish on Thursday, a significant long- period easterly swell will continue through Thursday night and even into Friday. This should lead to a continued need for a Small Craft Advisory, especially north of Cape Fear where this easterly swell will be most easily felt. Sea heights as large as 8 feet remain possible inside of 20 miles from shore Wednesday, with 6-7 foot seas possible near and north of Cape Fear on Thursday. Models have come into very good agreement with the specifics of how strong this storm system becomes and how quickly it departs the western Atlantic.

High pressure will build across the Mid-Atlantic states on Thursday, then will move offshore on Friday. Low pressure developing to our west should spread rain and increasing southerly wind across the area Friday afternoon and evening. Another period of Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible Friday into Friday night.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 3 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ250- 252-254-256. Gale Warning from 3 PM Tuesday to noon EST Wednesday for AMZ250-252-254-256.

SYNOPSIS . TRA UPDATE . DCH NEAR TERM . 21 SHORT TERM . TRA LONG TERM . TRA AVIATION . mbB MARINE . DCH/TRA/MBB/21


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 12 mi42 min NE 16 G 25 37°F 55°F1027.6 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 12 mi40 min 55°F3 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 14 mi56 min 35°F 54°F1027.4 hPa
WLON7 14 mi56 min 33°F 54°F1028 hPa
41108 22 mi50 min 55°F3 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi42 min NNE 18 G 27 38°F 58°F1026.9 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 33 mi42 min NNE 14 G 19 35°F 54°F1029 hPa
41119 34 mi120 min 54°F1 ft
SSBN7 34 mi58 min 2 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 42 mi30 min NNE 18 G 23 42°F 64°F1025.9 hPa33°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC11 mi55 minN 410.00 miFair31°F17°F56%1028.1 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC17 mi57 minNE 710.00 miFair28°F18°F66%1028.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington Beach, North Carolina
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Wilmington Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:23 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:36 AM EST     4.21 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:55 AM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:56 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:48 PM EST     3.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:29 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:05 PM EST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.82.73.64.14.23.832.11.10.40.10.51.222.83.33.43.22.51.70.80.1-0.20.1

Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:23 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:07 AM EST     4.04 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:58 AM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:56 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:21 PM EST     3.51 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:29 PM EST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.10.9233.743.83.22.51.81.10.3-0.10.31.32.33.13.53.42.821.40.80.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.