Friday, October18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carolina Beach, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 6:35PM Friday October 18, 2019 7:16 PM EDT (23:16 UTC) Moonrise 9:00PMMoonset 10:40AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 612 Pm Edt Fri Oct 18 2019
.gale watch in effect from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning...
Tonight..N winds 5 kt, becoming ne late this evening and overnight. Seas 1 foot.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sat night..SE winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, building to 7 to 11 ft after midnight. Showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Sun..SW winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft after midnight.
Mon..NE winds 10 kt, becoming se. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming w. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 612 Pm Edt Fri Oct 18 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Tropical storm nestor in the gulf of mexico will track ne and transition into an extratropical low as it moves across the florida panhandle early Sat. This low will continue ne, tracking just inland from both carolina coasts late Sat afternoon thru Sun morning, reaching the northern outer banks late Sun aftn. Weak high pressure will follow late Sun into Mon with the next cfp slated for late Tue.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carolina Beach, NC
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location: 34.03, -77.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 181934
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
334 pm edt Fri oct 18 2019

Synopsis
Tropical storm nestor should move inland on the florida gulf
coast on Saturday, losing its tropical characteristics as it
brings rain and breezy conditions to the eastern carolinas
late Saturday into early Sunday. High pressure will build in
behind this system through Monday. A cold front will move
offshore late Tuesday, followed by another area of high
pressure through Friday.

Near term through Saturday night
High pressure extending down from the north will continue to produce
dry and cool conditions tonight into early Saturday. Expect decent
radiational cooling as only some wispy cirrus should start streaming
in by morning, mainly over sc. This will lead to another cool night
with temps in the mid 40s to around 50 farther south in sc and sc
coast where high clouds may increase enough to keep lows a bit
warmer.

After a fairly decent morning, especially the farther north you go,
conditions will deteriorate Sat aftn as clouds thicken and rain
spreads north as extratropical low, formerly known as tropical storm
nestor, tracks up through the carolinas just inland from the coast.

Expect greatest winds along the coast where some gusts could reach
up to 15 to 25 mph mainly late Sat eve into overnight. As the low
tracks north, it will become more elongated with possibly two areas
of MAX pcp. The i-95 corridor and along the coast have best chc of
highest rainfall with periods of heavy rain mainly late Sat into sat
night. Up to 2 to 4 inches of rainfall is possible. Wpc has included
much of our local forecast office in a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall. Given the dry antecedent conditions, expect flooding
threat to remain minor.

There is a potential for iso tornado threat mainly from Sat eve into
the overnight hours. The greatest shear, along with instability and
moisture, will be closer to the coast as the low tracks up into the
carolinas. Further inland, expect a more stable atmosphere with less
of a chc of any thunderstorms at all. The system should be tracking
out of local forecast area by Sun morning with lingering clouds and
pcp but heavy rain will ending.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
Surface low pressure, the remnant of what should be former
tropical storm nestor, will be located over far-eastern north
carolina at sunrise Sunday, accelerating out to the northeast.

Lingering clouds and maybe an hour or two of rain may continue
during the morning before drier air wraps in behind the
departing low.

A broad upper air ridge building across the southeast u.S.

Sunday will scoot offshore as a deep trough extending southward
from the great lakes approaches the carolinas by late Monday. A
weak surface ridge will also move off the coast late Monday,
with light and veering winds expected. Showers could appear
inland as early as late Monday night as deep layer moisture
gathers ahead of the approaching front. Pops have been limited
to only 20-40 percent for now.

I used a model blend for temperatures through the period which
yields low-mid 70s for highs and lows 55-60.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
A cold front extending southward from low pressure across the
great lakes should move through the eastern carolinas Tuesday
evening. Moisture returning ahead of this front on southerly
winds should push dewpoints back to near 70 degrees. Coupled
with highs around 80, CAPE values around 1000 j kg should
support showers and a few thunderstorms within a weakly sheared
airmass. Pops have been increased to 60 percent during the day
Tuesday.

Model consensus is that the front will move off the coast
Tuesday evening. Only the 12z canadian doesn't support this idea
as it is slower with both the front and the supporting upper
trough.

After the great lakes upper trough moves off the new england
coast Wednesday, another upper trough will deepen over the
central u.S. Which strengthens a downstream ridge off the east
coast. This should support benign weather conditions across the
carolinas with high pressure and dry weather. Depending on just
how quickly that next upper trough approaches from the west
late Friday, shower chances could begin to grow by next weekend.

Aviation 18z Friday through Wednesday
Vfr. Clear skies today under high pressure, with scattered high
clouds moving in from the south ahead of tropical system tonight and
overnight hours. Low cloud ceilings move in from the southwest in the
last few hours of the TAF period, with MVFR conditions expected to
begin shortly after 18z tomorrow. Light north-northeast winds this
evening and overnight become easterly late tomorrow morning around
10 kts.

Extended outlook... Rain, gusty winds, and ifr MVFR conditions likely
Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Chance for early morning
fog stratus next Monday and Tuesday mornings. Cold front expected to
move through Tuesday afternoon evening.

Marine
A gale watch is in effect from late Sat aftn into early Sunday.

High pressure extending down from the north will maintain dry and
cooler conditions over the waters tonight. Seas will remain low,
less than 3 ft with light flow becoming more variable.

Conditions will deteriorate through late Sat into Sat night with
increasing onshore flow Sat aftn becoming SE to S up to 25 to 25 kts
through Sat eve into Sat night. Seas will increase up to 7 to 11 ft
by Sat night with rough seas expected as remnants of tropical storm
nestor makes its way up through the carolinas as an extratropical
low. The low will track up just inland maintaining a strong on shore
push through Saturday night before it begins to track off to the ne
leaving an offshore flow toward Sun morning with the beginning
of improving marine conditions.

Low pressure, the remnant of former tropical storm nestor,
should be located over far-eastern north carolina Sunday morning
and will be accelerating out to the northeast. Strong southwest
winds possibly gusting to gale force early in the morning should
decrease in speed and veer more northwesterly with time as the
low pulls away from the area. Seas as large as 6-10 feet early
Sunday morning should subside quickly, with the last of the 6
foot seas expected to end by Sunday evening across the CAPE fear
waters. Light winds and diminishing seas are expected Sunday
night through Monday night as a ridge of high pressure builds
across the carolinas.

A cold front extending south from low pressure across the great
lakes should move into the western carolinas Tuesday morning.

South winds ahead of the front should increase only modestly to
around 15 knots. Latest models (with the exception of the 12z
canadian which is slow) move the front off the coast Tuesday
evening. Offshore winds are then expected Tuesday night through
Wednesday as high pressure near the gulf coast slides east.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Gale watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning for
amz250-252-254-256.

Synopsis... Tra
near term... Rgz
short term... Tra
long term... Tra
aviation... Vao


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 12 mi68 min SSW 5.8 G 12 64°F 74°F1016.1 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 12 mi36 min 74°F1 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 14 mi46 min SSW 5.1 G 8 64°F 74°F1016 hPa
WLON7 14 mi46 min 64°F 73°F1016.5 hPa
41108 22 mi46 min 74°F1 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi68 min W 1.9 G 5.8 64°F 1014.9 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 33 mi68 min SW 5.8 G 9.7 65°F 74°F1016.6 hPa
41119 34 mi116 min 74°F1 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 42 mi26 min NW 1.9 G 3.9 65°F 78°F2 ft1016.4 hPa46°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC11 mi21 minN 010.00 miFair60°F47°F63%1016.9 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC17 mi23 minSSE 410.00 miFair60°F46°F60%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW4NW5N6N5N3N6N6N6N8CalmN3N3NE5S6SW3Calm
1 day agoNW6W10W5W3NW7N8N4N4CalmNW3NW5N6NW4NW3NW5NW12
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmS5S3S5S7S6
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Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington Beach, North Carolina
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Wilmington Beach
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Fri -- 04:40 AM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:43 AM EDT     4.58 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:20 PM EDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:58 PM EDT     3.78 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.42.71.91.10.60.6123.144.54.64.33.62.71.91.20.911.52.43.13.63.8

Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:53 AM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:57 AM EDT     4.59 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:49 PM EDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.93.73.22.51.60.90.50.40.81.93.34.34.64.43.93.32.51.81.30.90.81.22.33.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.