Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Columbia, SC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Key Message(s):

- Well below average morning lows and afternoon highs expected again.

A sharp mid-upper level shortwave will push through region throughout Friday. Downstream of the trough axis we are seeing some lingering cirrostratus, which is helping elevate overnight temps a bit across the Midlands. While this shortwave has some impressive dynamics with strong vort advection and height falls, the extremely dry air mass will win out. So only some mid-high level cloud cover is expected from this trough passage this morning. Surface high pressure is sliding eastward behind this trough and will settle over the region later this evening and overnight. Westerly low level flow and very weak warm advection will precede the surface high pressure, so along with some clearing this afternoon, temps will climb into the mid-40's. A pretty much ideal radiational cooling is then expected as the surface high settled overhead so morning lows Saturday consequently should fall into the low 20's and upper 10's.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Key Message(s):

- Dry conditions with gradually warming temperatures.

Zonal upper pattern will set up for Saturday. Surface airmass remains dry and still on the colder side of normal, but do expect temperatures to climb to around 50 degrees as winds will be out of the southwest, albeit on the light side. Saturday night remains dry and cold, with lows moderating slightly to the middle 20s. Sunday will see the approach of our next shortwave aloft, but at this time the daytime hours will by dry. Highs reach the middle 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Key Message(s):

- Overall warming trend continues through the extended. Near to above normal values are slated to return on Tuesday.

- The next chance of precipitation arrives late Sunday night into Monday.

Our next chance for rainfall should occur late Sunday night into Monday as a weak storm system approaches from the west. Precip should hold off until closer to Monday morning, and would start off on the lighter side. Temperatures will be above freezing, although the Pee Dee areas could briefly tough 32 degrees, so can not rule out a short period of light freezing rain there.
Freezing rain is not a concern outside of the Pee Dee at this time. Strong enough warm nose aloft will keep this system all rain through the day Monday. The expect rainfall and clouds will only allow afternoon temps in the lower 50s. Dry weather returns on Tuesday through Wednesday as upper ridging tries to build in from the west. This will result in temperatures finally reaching near to even above normal values. The next chance for rainfall then re-enters the forecast by Thursday as another storm system approaches from the west.

AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions through the TAF period.

High cirrostratus continues to push over the region, generally between 15-20k feet. Complete clearing is likely for a period later this afternoon, but additional stratocirrus is likely for much of the morning. Winds will remain calm through mid- morning before developing out of the west by late morning and through the evening, 6-10 knots in the afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
On Monday the region will see increasing rain chances and possible aviation restrictions as moisture returns to the area. Dry air and low chances for restrictions return for the remainder of the extended.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
GA...None.