Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Columbia, SC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Key message(s):

- Dangerously cold weather likely tonight and Monday morning with a Cold Weather Advisory in effect starting at 8 PM this evening.

- Blustery winds with gusts to 25-30 mph this afternoon and evening, diminishing tonight. A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect starting at 4 PM this afternoon.

The cold front will be moving out of the CWA in the coming hours as much cooler and drier air begins to be ushered in behind it. Dew points across the northern Midlands are already falling below 32F with drier air seen in the upstate where dewpoints are in the upper teens to lower 20s. Maximum temperatures were already reached this morning as CAA now ensues across the region, steadily dropping temperatures the remainder of the day. Behind the front, frequent northwesterly gusts toward 25 mph have already been seen but these could increase slightly more through the afternoon to near 30 mph. These gusts should gradually diminish tonight over land, but with even stronger CAA moving in this evening, gusts to 30-35 mph are expected to mix down over the warmer area lakes. Due to this, a Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect starting at 4 PM, lasting through 4 AM Monday.

As mentioned above, strong CAA advection (~ -6 to -10 C/hr)
pushes in this evening and tonight as the 1040+mb arctic surface high slides toward the region. While the strongest wind gusts should diminish overnight, sustained winds near 10 mph likely continue into Monday morning, coupled with abnormally cold temperatures. These factors should yield dangerously cold wind chills in the teens, with spots in the upper single digits very possible. The Cold Weather Advisory across the whole FA goes into effect starting at 8 PM this evening, lasting until 10 AM Monday when wind chills likely reach above the teens. These dangerously cold wind chills will impact the morning commute, including children at bus stops and outdoor workers. Make sure to take precautions such as dripping faucets, covering outdoor faucets, or opening cabinets to let warm air circulate to plumbing on exterior walls. Also remember to take precautions for any sensitive plants and pets/animals.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Key message(s):

- Temperatures well below average Monday into Monday night, moderating Tuesday.

Frigid air will remain over the region both days as an arctic high pressure system traverses the region. The key messages remain unchanged as wind chills will be dangerously cold tomorrow morning, especially for those who have outdoor activities in the early morning hours. Air temperatures are expected to be in the upper teens, with wind chills as low as the single digits. Please exercise caution and bundle up! Highs are forecast to only rise back up into the upper 30s or low 40s through the day despite sunshine throughout the day. The surface high is forecast to be near or atop the area, especially the southeastern forecast area, by Monday night. This will promote near ideal radiational cooling conditions, with lows ranging from the upper teens to mid 20s. With temperatures barely climbing into the 30s on Monday, please remember to continue dripping your pipes through Tuesday morning. Temps this cold tend to lead to frozen pipe problems across the area, so please be aware of this threat! By Tuesday afternoon, the temps should begin warming back up into the mid 50s as the surface high shifts offshore.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Key message(s):

- Above average temperatures with chance of rain late week.

The progressive, transient pattern should continue into the long term. HEights are forecast to quickly begin rising on Wednesday as the pattern to our west again begins amplifying. Westerly and southwesterly flow will become common across the eastern CONUS as a result, with a warming trend expected both Wednesday and Thursday.
Highs will be back near normal on Wednesday (upper 50s to around 60)
and then above normal on Thursday as a cold front approaches (mid to upper 60s). Rain chances are expected to quickly increase on Thursday night and Friday as the deep trough and surface cold front approach from the west and bring an increase in moisture as well.
Generally expect the front to be in and out on Thursday night and early Friday, with dry conditions returning by Friday afternoon. The airmass behind the front looks cooler than the one preceding it, but temps look like they'll only fall to back to near/slightly below normal for the Fri-Sun period.

AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR conditions likely through the TAF period, but with breezy winds behind the cold front.

MVFR ceilings have begun scattering out across the TAF sites, and this will likely continue before mostly clear skies are seen later this afternoon, continuing through the TAF period. Winds have begun turning out of the northwest already with gusts to 20-25 kts becoming frequent. These winds likely continue much of the afternoon and into this evening before sustained winds around 7-10 kts remain overnight, now out of the north. Winds become more light and variable Monday morning and into the early afternoon as the center of high pressure moves overhead with VFR conditions.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Widespread restrictions unlikely in the extended as a dry air is in place through at least Thursday when potential rain chances move in.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...Lake Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Monday for SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116- 135>137.
Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115- 116-135>137.
GA...Lake Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Monday for GAZ040-063>065-077.
Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ040-063>065-077.