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FXUS62 KCAE 300104 AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 804 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

SYNOPSIS
Well below normal temperatures are expected today. A gradual warming trend begins on Thursday and continues into the weekend, though wedge conditions could hinder the warming trend some for the weekend. Rain chances also increase starting Friday as a wetter airmass and multiple lows traverse the region.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
West-northwesterly flow aloft continues entrench dry air across the area with only some isolated cirrus clouds aloft; PWAT's remain down below 0.2" with surface dew points generally in the upper 20's. Surface high pressure will move pretty much directly overhead tonight and winds are therefore expected to completely fall off throughout the overnight hours. This all adds up to some nearly ideal radiational cooling at least through 4am or so. After that, some guidance is a bit more aggressive with cirrus coverage which could prevent those last few hours of strong cooling. Still steered towards the lower end of the NBM distribution given the radiational setup; low temps will generally fall into the mid-upper 20's.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Surface high pressure will be centered just to our east Thursday morning. Another dry day will be in store with weak ridging moving over the eastern US and heights rising over the region. Skies will be mostly clear throughout the day and, despite the cold start, temperatures will rise to around 60 in the afternoon. The major changes come later that night as ridging shifts east and flow aloft becomes more southwesterly ahead of a deep trough in the southern Great Plains. Clouds will increase as moisture starts to move in and warm air will begin to advect into the region (though stronger WAA will be later in the period). This will keep temperatures from falling below freezing for another night, with lows in the upper 30s.

Friday gets a little more tricky. As noted, there will be increasing warm air advection to start off the day. A low over Missouri and Illinois and the high now to our west will funnel significant moisture into the Gulf states and the Southeast. Multiple upper shortwave impulses will move over the area, but the moisture will be at question for at least the first half of the day; global models tend to have difficulty in the intensity of moisture transport after days of significantly dry air. Looking at model soundings there appears to be much dry air at the surface during the morning/early afternoon. MOS has also backed off some in PoPs prior to 00z and considering the uncertainty, I also inched PoPs down a tad. Better opportunities for rain (and an isolated thunderstorm) will be later in the afternoon and evening. In addition, best moisture transport will be mainly to our west and therefore have higher PoPs west of I- 20. Pseudo wedge-like conditions possible as well, with a tight gradient in terms of high temperatures between the Midlands and the Upstate. In general have close to 70 south and around 60 north and west.

As the low moves just south of the Great Lakes, the associated front will get picked up in the southwesterly flow aloft and become diffuse. Multiple shortwaves expected to move over the region Friday night into Saturday morning, with significant discrepancies between ensemble members in terms of timing. Given the moisture and wedge- like conditions temperatures will struggle to fall overnight. Lows in the 50s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Although there is an abnormally high amount of uncertainty in terms of timing, there is good agreement that greatest moisture will move in Saturday. Moisture transport will ramp up significantly Saturday PM and several vort maxes will move overhead. Though exact timing of best chance of rain is still unclear, late Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon appears to be most favorable. Ensemble guidance has over 80 percent probability of PWATs over 1.5 inches along the CSRA and southern Midlands. In addition, model soundings show a deep warm cloud layer and highly saturated low to mid levels, indicating there may be some pockets of heavy rain.

Global models show the diffuse boundary remaining over the southeast through Sunday, providing rain chances for the remainder of the weekend as well. From there, overall consensus has a deep trough traversing from the central US into the East Coast Sunday morning to Sunday night. This would scour away the deep moisture and dry us out late Monday and into mid week.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
High confidence in VFR conditions through the period.

Dry high pressure will remain over the forecast area tonight and THursday. Winds will be light and variable to calm overnight then eventually pick up from the south 5 knots or less after 16z. Satellite imagery shows some higher clouds moving over the area and this will continue to provide scattered cirrus through the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected through Thursday night. There is potential for restrictions in showers Friday through the weekend.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.

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Pimlico
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Wed -- 12:03 AM EST     1.73 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:33 AM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:26 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 12:27 PM EST     2.15 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:12 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:17 PM EST     0.46 feet Low Tide
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Pimlico, West Branch, Cooper River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Jamestown Bridge
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Wed -- 01:01 AM EST     1.12 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:08 AM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:26 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 01:25 PM EST     1.39 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:11 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:52 PM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
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