Sunrise 6:20 AM   Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 1:07 PM   Moonset 1:52 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

FXUS62 KCAE 160018 AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 818 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
Isolated showers and thunderstorms expected this evening. Upper ridging will provide a brief break in the unsettled conditions on Thursday. Shower and thunderstorms chances increase again Friday and especially on Saturday with unsettled weather lingering into early next week. Ridging builds in during the middle of next week resulting in decreasing rain chances and a gradual increase in temperatures.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
Convection will diminish through the evening with loss of heating and a shortwave moving east. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible along remnant outflow boundary collisions. We'll be on the backside of the trough axis after midnight, with subsidence really taking care of any remaining showers by that point. The weak surface front across NC currently will shift southward and through the area by early Thursday morning, with cooler and drier air pushing in thereafter. Some model guidance continues to hint at low-clouds later tonight, especially across the northeastern FA, but confidence is low. So lows will likely be in the upper 50s and low 60s given mostly clear skies after sunset.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Thursday and Thursday Night: Drier weather will return back into the area as an upper ridge builds in from the west. Should see much more sunshine through the day as a west-northwesterly wind pattern brings some downsloping across the cwa. This should also have the affect of bringing temperatures back into the low to mid 80s for afternoon highs. Overnight lows will be mild in the low to mid 60s.

Friday and Friday Night: The upper ridge begins to move east through the day in response to an upper level low moving out of the Southern Plains. Moisture will once again be on the increase, so even though the day will start off dry, the region should see the development of isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon. Better rainfall chances should occur Friday night as the deeper trough moves towards the region. Temperatures for the afternoon will reach the low to mid 80s. With the expected increase in clouds, overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Some uncertainty exists Saturday due to timing differences with the models. Even if there are some timing issues, at some point Saturday there should be numerous showers and/or thunderstorms across the entire cwa. NBM shows likely to categorical pops for much of the day, and will not really stray much from those numbers. Sunday will see the upper low eventually moving through and east of the cwa, and should see some shower activity early in the day before some drying becomes possible during the afternoon and evening. Behind the low, drier air returns and will bring dry conditions then from Sunday night through Wednesday. Temperatures next week rise back above normal.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR conditions generally expected through the forecast period.

SCT -SHRA may still move through the terminals over the next few hours, but conditions should remain VFR. FEW-SCT clouds AOA 4k ft MSL gradually clearing to SKC by Thursday morning. A low- level jet is expected to mitigate any fog concerns. Some guidance indicates stratus by tomorrow morning, but confidence is low that MVFR CIGs will develop. The remainder of Thursday looks dry and clear with SFC winds WLY/NWLY 4-8 kts through the valid period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms and associated restrictions are possible again Friday and Saturday.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
GA...None.

Pimlico
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:39 AM EDT     1.71 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 12:35 PM EDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:07 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:21 PM EDT     1.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pimlico, West Branch, Cooper River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Jamestown Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:24 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:37 AM EDT     1.10 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 01:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:10 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:19 PM EDT     0.97 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Jamestown Bridge, Santee River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Columbia, SC,