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FXUS62 KFFC 110146 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 846 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023


UPDATE
Issued at 842 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Cold front has just moved out of the far SE CWA. Precip will continue to end from west to east by around midnight. Satellite imagery shows a broad field of cold air stratocu behind the low pressure center currently across the Mid Atlantic states. Do think sct to occasional bkn low level cu will be possible through early to mid morning Monday across mainly northern portions of the state. Winds behind the front are still pretty gusty as the gradient remains fairly tight. Do think the gradient will begin to relax by sunrise. No major changes needed to the grids.

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Highlights:

-Showers coming to an end this evening.
-Cold temperatures and gusty winds behind frontal passage this afternoon and evening.
-Snow chances for North Georgia have decreased significantly.

Looking at the remainder of today, the front is current bisecting our area over the ATL metro and is expected to continue moving southeast through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Winds are shifting to the NW behind the front and gusting up to 30 mph, with similar conditions expected for the remainder of the evening.
The precip should start to come to an end as dry air filters in quickly behind the front and drop temperatures into the low 30s for much of the area with upper 20s in far northeast GA. Due to the rainfall moving through much quicker than initially anticipated, the lingering precip will have moved on before temperatures get below freezing thus our snowfall chances for the north GA mountains has decreased. At most flurries are possible but no real accumulation is expected. For tomorrow into tomorrow night expect clear conditions with the max temp topping out in the mid 40s to mid 50s for much of the area.

Hernandez

LONG TERM
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 235 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Key Messages:

- Dry weather and near average temperatures will prevail Tuesday through Friday.

- Rain chances (20-40%) return to the forecast for next weekend.

Tuesday through Friday:

The upper level pattern during this period will feature a gradual transition from zonal flow to weak upper level ridging. Meanwhile at the surface high pressure will dominate, resulting in consistent northeast surface wind across Georgia. Combined these conditions suggest dry weather, partly cloudy skies and near average temperatures. The majority of the region can anticipate high temperatures in the 50s through Friday.

Earlier concerns regarding near critical fire weather conditions in the mountains of north Georgia continue to decline. A fairly dry airmass (between 850 and 500 mb) should be in place, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. However the continued easterly flow should allow for gradual modification over the course of the week and limit mixing to some degree. The potential for Fire Danger Statement on Tuesday and Wednesday for parts of north Georgia has fallen to around 15%.

Next Weekend into Early Next Week:

Ensemble guidance (EPS and GEFS) continues to bring the next meaningful shortwave trough through our region during this period.
While forecaster confidence in the occurrence of troughing is high (>90% of ensemble member indicate it), confidence in the timing or intensity of any precipitation associated with it is low. This lower confidence in linked to a large degree of spread amongst the ensemble members when it come to the timing of the trough. The quickest members bring precipitation in as early as Friday evening while the slower ones hold off until Monday. With these concerns in mind our forecast introduces lower end (~20%) rain chances into the forecast Friday and then keeps them at of below 40% through the weekend. Confidence in the timing of any precipitation for next weekend should improve over the next 48 hours as the current system exits and the models get a better grasp on next weekend storm system.

Albright

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Conditions will continue to quickly improve through 3Z-4Z. Some sct-bkn mid/upper clouds likely before the cold air stratocu moves in. Sct025, possibly bkn at times, will likely linger through early tomorrow. Winds will remain on the west side but gusts and sustained speeds will start to decrease during the late morning on Monday.

//ATL Confidence
00Z Update
Med confidence all elements.

NListemaa

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 32 53 29 54 / 60 0 0 0 Atlanta 32 49 31 53 / 10 0 0 0 Blairsville 26 45 25 52 / 70 0 0 0 Cartersville 28 49 25 54 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 33 54 31 57 / 10 0 0 0 Gainesville 32 50 31 52 / 50 0 0 0 Macon 32 53 30 56 / 60 0 0 0 Rome 29 51 27 56 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 29 50 27 54 / 10 0 0 0 Vidalia 37 55 34 57 / 90 0 0 0

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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