Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sea Breeze, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1) Above-normal temperatures return today, with even hotter weather likely next week. No measurable rain is forecast over the next seven days.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... Above-normal temperatures return today, with even hotter weather likely next week. No measurable rain is forecast over the next seven days.

Surface high pressure and ridging aloft will result in an increasingly warm and humid weather pattern into next week.
After temps in the 80s today, expect a slight cool down with highs in the 70s near the coast and Cape Fear region Sunday as a backdoor cold front nudges into the area. Thereafter, a warming trend ensues with sfc high pressure offshore and upr-level ridging over the local area... temps inland may not be too far from record highs for the latter half of the week.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR will dominate this 24 hr fcst period. Will observe thin cirrus at all terminals. In addition, could see aftn/evening FEW/SCT cu/sc/ac at 5000 to 7500 ft via latest GFSBufr soundings while a backdoor cold front drops down from the north at the end of this period. W to NW flow around 5 kt will dominate this morning. Active sea breeze pushing inland this aftn/evening will switch the winds to the SE-S at 5 to 10 kt in its wake. Winds will back to the ENE-E 5 to 10 kt once the front reaches the region.

Extended Forecast...Predominantly VFR. Back door cold front will stall near the NC-SC border late tonight then dissipate as it lifts back northward by Mon. Could observe periodic MVFR ceilings during the predawn Sun hrs into daytime morning in the vicinity of this front. Winds back to the ENE-E 10 kt Sun as high pressure from the north temporarily ridges in. High pressure to dominate during the upcoming work-week.

MARINE
Through Tonight... High pressure nearly overhead today will result in W to NW winds 5 to 10 kt this morning becoming S 10 kt this aftn and evening as the mesoscale sea breeze develops and dominates the wind field as it progresses inland. Backdoor cold front dropping southward today, reaches/stalls near the NC- SC border later tonight or early Sun morning. Looking at winds becoming ENE-ESE 10 to 15 kt, likely closer to around 15 kt vicinity Surf City by the end of this period. Seas generally 3 to 4 ft Cape Fear north and 2 to 3 ft south of Cape Fear to South Santee River. The slowly decaying ENE-E swell at 9 to 10 second periods will dominate the seas spectrum this period, with sea breeze wind chop thrown on top this aftn/evening.

Sunday through Wednesday... Sub-SCA conditions continue into this period. East wind 10-15 kt is expected Sunday with a backdoor cold front dropping into the area, then becoming out of the south starting Monday with sfc high pressure offshore.

Seas in the 2-4 ft range this weekend will subside slightly to 2-3 ft from Monday onward. The primary contributor to the wave spectrum will remain east to southeasterly swells with a period around 9-10 sec, while southerly wind waves become more noticeable starting on Monday in the 1-2 ft range.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.