Tuesday, May26, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sea Breeze, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 8:16PM Tuesday May 26, 2020 4:21 PM EDT (20:21 UTC) Moonrise 8:14AMMoonset 11:02PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 339 Pm Edt Tue May 26 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Wednesday evening...
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy drizzle early. Isolated tstms late.
Wed..SE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers and scattered tstms.
Wed night..S winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers likely. Scattered tstms, mainly in the evening.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Thu night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Tstms likely in the evening. Showers likely.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms likely in the morning, then a chance of showers through the night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 339 Pm Edt Tue May 26 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Low pressure developing across florida will move north across the carolinas on Wednesday, bringing moderate to heavy rain and increasing winds and waves. Humid south winds will continue until Saturday before a cold front passage.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sea Breeze, NC
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location: 34.08, -77.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 261940 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 340 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will gradually shift northeastward through mid-week and allow waves of low pressure to move into the Carolinas bringing periods of unsettled weather. A cold front may move through the area this coming weekend bringing cooler and drier weather early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Very active near term period as a deep tropical plume of moisture off the southeast coast moves across. Some isentropic lift and or low level convergence is leading to some light rain and drizzle this afternoon and this will continue into the evening and overnight hours. There will be an area of low pressure attempting to organize with the tropical moisture and this feature will move across the region Wednesday morning. Guidance is struggling with the placement of the feature likely due to its sprawling nature and numerous areas of convection with which characterizes the system currently.

If a more southwest solution verifies (NAM) more surface based instability will advect into the area Wednesday increasing the severe weather potential and perhaps even increasing QPF amounts as it slows down dramatically. If the more consistent GFS verifies there will be less instability and more of a quick hitting lower QPF rainfall event. And if that isn't enough confusion the new 1200 UTC ECMWf drives the main part of the system into the upstate of Georgia by late in the day Wednesday leading to minimal impacts.

Overall I have increased pops as its almost assured our area will see measurable rain. I did not change rainfall amounts citing the aforementioned lengthy uncertainty. I also opted not to entertain thoughts of a Flash Flood Watch citing the same. Finally its worth noting that some high resolution guidance has a "tail" if you will of convection moving across later in the day mainly in the wake of the system and if this verifies it would probably pose the highest severe threat as the area would be firmly in the warm sector. There should be a lull in activity Wednesday evening but can't rule out convection into Thursday morning via the moisture laden southerly flow. Temperatures, kinda an afterthought should be a bit on the cool side of normal for highs and warmer side for lows courtesy of the moisture.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Instability during the day on Thursday will lead to widespread showers and storms. The environment ahead of the upper-level low, still parked over the lower Mississippi River Valley, will likely remain sub-severe. A few storms will warrant extra attention due to a thick CAPE profile and the potential for strong downdrafts. Rain on Thursday will certainly not lead to washout conditions, but if there are any outdoor plans, you'll likely be dodging brief showers and storms for much of the day. On Friday, the upper-low will transition into an upper-level trough and begin to meander eastward. A weak shortwave rounding the cyclonic disturbance will help spark afternoon showers and storms on Friday. Many areas are likely to hear a few rumbles, especially inland. Showers will linger in the area on Friday evening as the weak shortwave ejects off to the NE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The upper-level trough continues to approach the area from the west during the day on Saturday. This, along with the instability caused by hot and humid conditions at the surface will help with the development of afternoon storms. Overnight and into early Sunday morning, the upper trough will push a cold front through the area, bringing additional showers an isolated storm. During the day on Sunday, some lingering showers early will give way to clearing skies behind the front. A cooler and drier air mass will move into the area as high pressure dominates the weather pattern through the early and middle portions of next week.

AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Predominately VFR this afternoon. Look for isolated light convection this afternoon with the resultant pushing well inland due to the onshore flow. Tonight, a tropical low will track northward and off the coast. Deep moisture will be on the increase after midnight, with heavy downpours possible along the coast around daybreak. Wednesday, the tropical low will continue to track northward, coming onshore around the Myrtles at the end of the forecast period.

Extended Outlook . Unsettled weather may continue Wednesday Night through Sunday with periods of short-lived MVFR/IFR conditions expected in convective showers and t-storms.

MARINE. Marine elements will go downhill as an area of low pressure moves near or across the area through Wednesday. Lot's of uncertainty in the strength and position of this feature so the forecast is one of lower confidence. Expect the current northeast flow to become more easterly in time and increase to 20-25 knots for some time Wednesday. By Wednesday evening more of a southerly flow will develop and weaken as the system moves to the north and or west. Small craft winds and seas are expected to develop in time and persist for most of Wednesday. For the particular wave heights, expect 5-8 feet by midday Wednesday dropping to 3-5 feet by Thursday morning.

Southerly winds will continue through the remainder of the week as high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west lead to a weak gradient wind out of the south at 10-15 knots. This will be combined with a long-period southeasterly swell at 3-4 feet and 8 seconds. These combined seas could lead to rough conditions for smaller vessels. We are likely to see few changes in the pattern through Saturday, even as a cold front approaches the area on Saturday evening. High pressure will build into the area behind the cold front on Sunday. The gradient will tighten a bit on Sunday evening as northerly winds increase to 10-15 knots and veer to northeasterly. Breezy conditions continue into early next week with winds 15-20 knots, nearing Small Craft Advisory levels as seas approach 3-5 feet.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ107. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252-254-256.



SYNOPSIS . ILM NEAR TERM . SHK SHORT TERM . 21 LONG TERM . 21 AVIATION . 43 MARINE . SHK/21


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi73 min NE 14 G 18 69°F 72°F1019.7 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 10 mi41 min 72°F3 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 11 mi51 min NNE 12 G 13 70°F 74°F1019.2 hPa
WLON7 11 mi51 min 70°F 73°F1019.7 hPa
41108 26 mi51 min 73°F3 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi73 min ENE 16 G 21 72°F 75°F1020 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 35 mi73 min E 14 G 18 72°F 76°F1019.3 hPa
41119 35 mi61 min 76°F2 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 45 mi31 min NE 16 G 19 73°F 77°F4 ft1017.9 hPa71°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC14 mi28 minNNE 710.00 miOvercast70°F66°F90%1019.7 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC14 mi26 minNE 610.00 miOvercast70°F65°F85%1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E5E5E6CalmE4E6NE4E6E5NE6NE4NE5NE7NE8
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1 day agoE5E8
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2 days agoSW11SW10SW6SW4SW4SW4SW3SW6W5CalmW3W3W3CalmNW4N5CalmE4S4SE6E7E6E6E8

Tide / Current Tables for Orton Point, North Carolina
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Orton Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:01 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:13 PM EDT     3.71 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:46 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.74.43.72.921.30.70.40.71.62.73.53.73.63.22.51.60.90.40.30.71.83.24.3

Tide / Current Tables for Reaves Point, North Carolina
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Reaves Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:11 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:15 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:36 AM EDT     3.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:09 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:58 PM EDT     4.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.23.832.11.20.60.30.51.22.12.83.23.332.51.810.50.20.41.22.43.44.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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