Friday, August7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sea Breeze, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 8:08PM Friday August 7, 2020 8:08 PM EDT (00:08 UTC) Moonrise 9:42PMMoonset 9:02AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 632 Pm Edt Fri Aug 7 2020
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Isolated showers and tstms after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening.
Mon..W winds 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 632 Pm Edt Fri Aug 7 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure offshore and a piedmont trough inland will produce light winds through the weekend and early next week. Scattered Thunderstorms will remain the main marine weather hazard through the period, mainly early morning, and late day.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sea Breeze, NC
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location: 34.08, -77.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 072325 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 725 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure offshore and a weak trough of low pressure inland will maintain warm and humid conditions with scattered showers and thunderstorms through the middle of next week.

UPDATE/.

POP values adjusted to reflect and a gradually filling line of convection working slowly toward the coast. High CAPE and upper support is powering through poor lapse rates, with moist marine inflow presently. This may sustain convection well into evening with a weakening trend expected aft 1z-2z.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. Visible satellite clearly shows that stable marine air has moved through coastal SC counties, coastal NC counties plus a good part of Columbus and half of Bladen. These area thus likely have little to no shot at rainfall. Not so for our inland counties however. Model guidance in in good agreement in showing a strong convective signal late this afternoon and for the first few hours possibly following sunset. This is in response to convergence ahead of this advancing marine air and an approaching upper level disturbance. Mid level lapse rates are paltry so the severe threat seems just about zero. Storms could produce considerable lightning rates however and will pose a threat for localized flooding. Any fog that develops will likely only be of aviation concerns but areas that get heavy rainfall may need to be re-evaluated. The trough aloft could keep thunderstorm coverage slightly elevated on Saturday but with less specificity with respect to areal coverage.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. The mid level pattern during the short term period will be poorly defined basically across the southern tier of the country but convection will seemingly go on unabated across our area. With higher precipitable waters and low level forcing mechanisms, good chance pops are in the forecast both Sunday and Monday afternoons. Some decrease in the overnight hours but not completely dry. Temperatures although still above normal are starting to inch downward as we are putting more time between the normal peak highs in late July and ever decreasing daylight hours.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Essentially an extension of the short term forecast with good coverage of convection basically each day. The mid level pattern may acquire some better amplitude late in the period with ridging out west and more troughing eastward which will produce an even better environment for convection.

AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Mainly debris clouds and lingering showers for inland terminals KFLO and KLBT. At the coast convection may reach KMYR after 0030z, but should weaken before recahing KMYR. Restrictions to visibility expected tonight in fog and mist, mostly after 6z. Scattered TSTMs expected again on Saturday, mainly aft 17z.

Extended Outlook . Weak troughing inland will result in isolated thunderstorms over the weekend into early next week, although coverage will be isolated to scattered. Any storms could bring brief IFR conditions in low visibility.

MARINE. The normal Bermuda high induced flow will be slightly disrupted through Saturday night. The predominant wind direction will still be out of the southwest though as the higher pressures will be found over the water but wind speeds will tend to run lower than what is typical for the time of year. Seas will run 2-3 ft though the 3 footers may be the less common wave height in the lighter wind regime.

Persistence forecast in place for the marine community. Other than convection that will briefly distort the fields, winds will continue to show a southerly component on the lower end of a 10- 15 knot range. Significant seas will be two feet or so possibly increasing later next week via slightly better defined wind fields.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . None.



NEAR TERM . mbB UPDATE . 8 SHORT TERM . SHK LONG TERM . SHK AVIATION . 8 MARINE . mbB/SHK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi61 min SSW 12 G 14 71°F 83°F1018.3 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 10 mi32 min 83°F2 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 11 mi69 min S 14 G 16 82°F 83°F1018 hPa (+0.8)
WLON7 11 mi69 min 84°F 84°F1018.4 hPa (+0.9)
41108 26 mi39 min 84°F2 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi61 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 82°F 83°F1019.3 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 35 mi61 min SSW 12 G 18 83°F 84°F1018.7 hPa
41119 35 mi52 min 84°F2 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 45 mi29 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 82°F 82°F1017.7 hPa76°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC14 mi76 minSSE 1010.00 miFair85°F72°F65%1018.2 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC14 mi74 minS 610.00 miFair82°F72°F73%1018.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4S3S3S5S4CalmS4CalmCalmSE3CalmW4CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmW5SW3SW6S6S5S6S5
1 day agoSE5CalmS3S4S4S4S4S4S4S3S3CalmE3CalmCalmS4S4SW5SW6S4CalmS5S6S4
2 days agoS6S6S4SW5SW4SW5SW6S3S3S3SW3CalmS4S4S3SW6E4E4SE5SE6S5SE4SE5E4

Tide / Current Tables for Orton Point, North Carolina
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Orton Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:15 AM EDT     4.43 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:34 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 12:33 PM EDT     4.05 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:47 PM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.44.33.62.71.81.10.50.412.13.13.7443.52.71.91.20.70.51233.8

Tide / Current Tables for Reaves Point, North Carolina
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Reaves Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:00 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:41 AM EDT     3.72 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:08 PM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.13.72.921.20.50.30.61.42.43.13.63.73.42.82.11.40.80.50.71.52.43.23.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.