Monday, October21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sea Breeze, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 6:32PM Monday October 21, 2019 3:30 AM EDT (07:30 UTC) Moonrise 11:53PMMoonset 1:29PM Illumination 49% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 947 Pm Edt Sun Oct 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 am edt Monday...
Overnight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon night..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the evening.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming ne 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..E winds 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 947 Pm Edt Sun Oct 20 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will build in behind post-tropical storm nestor as it lifts off to the northeast through Monday. A cold front moves quickly across the waters Tuesday night with dry high pressure to follow.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sea Breeze, NC
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location: 34.08, -77.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 210150
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
950 pm edt Sun oct 20 2019

Synopsis
A weak ridge of high pressure will build south
across the carolinas tonight and Monday with dry weather
expected. A cold front will move through the area Tuesday
bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure and
dry weather are expected Wednesday and Thursday, but rain
chances may increase next weekend as a cold front approaches from
the west.

Update
Forecast updated to cancel small craft advisory over sc coastal
waters where seas have dropped to below 6 ft. The headline remains
until 1 am over nc coastal waters.

Near term through Monday night
Cooler and drier high pressure will continue to build in behind
post-tropical cyclone nestor as it continues to track off to the
northeast through tonight. A few light sprinkles right along the
shallow frontal boundary will diminish as the front tracks off to
the east leaving behind shallow cool and moist layer. The gusty
w-nw downslope flow should help to break up the clouds a bit, but
soundings and moisture profile show a steep frontal inversion
keeping very shallow moist layer across the area tonight. This is
always tough to break and tough to forecast how long it will
last. Will show some breaks from SW to NE as drier air wraps
around the back side of low through early this eve. But will also
maintain fairly widespread stratus around the area for tonight
and possibly lasting through much of the day on Monday as cooler
and drier air settles in with shallow residual moisture socked in
under inversion.

Caa behind front will keep an overall cooling trend in temps
with most temps right around 60 by this eve. The overnight lows
will be tougher, with most models showing a decent break in
clouds through the first part of the night allowing temps to drop
and then stratus layer should help level them off with some
shallow CAA continuing. Lingering shallow moisture into Monday
will maintain some low stratus but should see increasing sunshine
through the day. Temps will be in the low to mid 50s tonight and
highs Monday in the low to mid 70s. Temps may not reach that
high if clouds hold on.

By Mon night, winds will veer around to the SE to S with warm
and moister flow ahead of approaching cold front. Expect clouds
to increase and thicken after midnight, with showers moving in by
morning. Temps will be warmer with overnight lows remaining in
the 60s.

Short term Tuesday through Tuesday night
Models have come into pretty good agreement that low pressure
over the great lakes will push a cold front eastward and across
the carolinas late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. The
best vorticity associated with the 500 mb trough will pass to our
north across the central appalachians, but there should be
enough instability and deep-layer moisture for showers to become
likely. Modest lapse rates should keep CAPE at or below 1000 j kg
despite high temps expected to reach the lower 80s, but 0-6 km
shear over 40 kt should still promote some multicell organization
of scattered thunderstorms. SPC has the area outlooked in a 5
percent severe risk for wind on Tuesday.

Dry air will build in behind the front Tuesday night with skies
gradually clearing overnight. Lows 50 inland and mid 50s on the
coast.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
Confidence is high that Wednesday and Thursday will have nice
weather conditions. High pressure over the deep south on
Wednesday will move east across the carolinas Wednesday night,
then offshore on Thursday. Mainly clear skies are expected with
highs around 70 on Wednesday and in the lower 70s Thursday. Lows
in the 40s Wednesday night and 50s Thursday night.

Forecast confidence has become much lower for late in the week
as strong shortwave energy dives south across the rockies on
Thursday. The 12z GFS wants this energy to remain progressive and
shows a full-latitude trough racing across the country and off
the east coast Saturday night. The 12z canadian along with the
00z and 12z runs of the ECMWF cut the shortwave energy off across
new mexico and texas on Friday, leading to a much slower
evolution of downstream effects across the carolinas.

I've reduced our forecast pops Friday and Saturday versus
forecasts we had our 24 hours ago, but realize there is no
obviously correct answer just yet with how this pattern will
evolve. All models show enough onshore low-level flow off the
atlantic Friday and Saturday that I can show gradually warming
temperatures into the weekend with rising dewpoints, but i'm
keeping pops just a little above climo averages until some
certainty evolves in this weather pattern.

Aviation 02z Monday through Friday
Stratus behind a cold front will move eastward over the next few
hours leading to clear skies andVFR conditions across the area. Nw
winds will weaken and become calm. This, along with saturated soils
from yesterday's rainfall will lead to the development of inland fog
and coastal stratus tonight. Ifr conditions are likely to develop
for brief period tomorrow morning at many of the forecast sites. Few
or scatteredVFR cumulus to develop tomorrow afternoon with decent
boundary layer moisture.

Extended outlook... Chance for early morning fog stratus Tuesday
morning. Cold front expected to move through Tuesday
afternoon evening withVFR conditions following.

Marine
Small craft advisory extended until 1 am over nc coastal waters
only as seas gradually lower this evening, from 4 to 7 ft down
to 3 to 6 after midnight.

Weak high pressure will build in behind post-tropical cyclone
nestor, as it tracks off to the northeast away from waters. Gusty
w-nw winds on the back end will veer around to the n-nw and
lighten to 10 to 15 kts through tonight and will continue to veer
around to the NE to E through late Mon and eventually southerly
by late Mon night ahead of approaching cold front. Seas will
remain 2 to 4 ft most of Mon through Mon night.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase on Tuesday as a
cold front approaches from the west. Latest models increase S to
sw winds to around 15 knots on Tuesday with seas building to
around 4 feet. The front will move offshore Tuesday evening. High
pressure over the gulf coast will build eastward Wednesday,
crossing overhead Wednesday night, then moving offshore Thursday.

This should lead to a period of strong offshore winds near 20
knots Tuesday night, then lighter and veering winds Wednesday
through Thursday.

The 12z GFS model may be an outlier with how quickly it brings
the next cold front eastward on Friday. The slower canadian and
ecmwf models maintain lighter onshore winds during the day
Friday.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 am edt Monday for amz250-252.

Synopsis... Tra
update... Mas
near term... Rgz
short term... Tra
long term... Tra
aviation... Mas 21
marine... Tra mas rgz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi23 min N 14 G 21 64°F 73°F1014.1 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 10 mi21 min 73°F3 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 11 mi49 min NNW 6 G 8.9 63°F 72°F1014 hPa
WLON7 11 mi49 min 63°F 71°F1014.6 hPa
41108 26 mi31 min 74°F4 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi23 min NNW 18 G 23 65°F 1012.3 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 35 mi23 min N 9.7 G 14 63°F 72°F1015.1 hPa
41119 35 mi41 min 72°F2 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 45 mi31 min N 12 G 18 67°F 78°F1014.3 hPa (+0.9)62°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC14 mi38 minNNW 710.00 miOvercast63°F57°F84%1014.6 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC14 mi36 minN 010.00 miFair61°F56°F86%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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NW6NW7NW9NW8NW6N8N5Calm
1 day agoN3N3N3CalmNE3N3CalmSE5E6E4E6SE6E6E7E6E8E7SE7
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2 days agoNW5N6N5N3N6N6N6N8CalmN3N3NE5S6SW3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Orton Point, North Carolina
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Orton Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:42 AM EDT     3.93 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:41 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Mon -- 09:20 AM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:03 PM EDT     4.65 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:27 PM EDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.53.43.93.93.732.11.30.70.40.51.22.43.64.44.64.543.22.41.71.20.70.8

Tide / Current Tables for Reaves Point, North Carolina
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Reaves Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:02 AM EDT     3.58 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:41 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Mon -- 08:46 AM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:41 PM EDT     4.36 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:41 PM EDT     0.92 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.93.43.63.53.12.41.81.20.80.71.11.92.93.84.34.34.13.52.721.410.91.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.