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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 117 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 am est this morning through this afternoon...
.gale watch in effect from this evening through Monday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers late.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the morning, then showers with a chance of tstms in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sun night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 25 to 30 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms in the evening, then showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue night..N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft after midnight.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 117 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Hazardous conditions will develop Sunday into Monday as a strong storm system affects the waters. Conditions will then improve during next week as high pressure builds back into the area.

FXUS62 KILM 100630 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 130 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
Unseasonably warm and mainly dry weather is expected through tonight. A strong storm system will bring rain and strong winds Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure then build in for most of next week bringing cool and dry weather once again. Rain chances increase into next weekend as a storm system moves up from the south.

UPDATE
No major changes necessary from the ongoing forecast. Expecting patchy dense fog to continue developing, although this will be limited by gradually increasing winds through the night.
Offshore showers should begin more directly affecting coastal locations by daybreak, particularly from Cape Fear northward.
Otherwise, temps will remain steady or gradually rise through the remainder of the night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
H5 trough across the Central U.S. this afternoon will lift eastward becoming somewhat negatively tilted as it moves off the East Coast during Sunday night. This feature will drive a strong cold front across the area Sunday night and is associated with a strong low- level wind field that may become problematic if any deeper convection can develop. Thus, there is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms across the forecast area for Sunday evening supported by strong low-level winds. However, coverage of severe storms will likely be impeded given only marginal instability by that time.

Subsequent shifts may need to consider a Wind Advisory for a portion of the Cape Fear area Sunday night for gusty winds associated with the cold frontal passage. Otherwise, a continuation of above normal temperatures with lows tonight and with Sunday's highs. Could see some sea fog develop late tonight into Sunday affecting the coastal areas before the winds increase later in the morning. Another concern is the potential for minor coastal flooding across the lower Cape Fear River with high tide Sunday night given the fetch of strong southerly flow.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Big change in airmass as cold and dry high pressure builds in.
CAA will be in full force in deep W-NW flow behind exiting storm system on Mon. The 850 temps drop about 10 degrees between midnight and daybreak Mon. Dewpoint temps will drop over 30 degrees from previous day as airmass dries out with pcp water values down near a quarter of inch. Overall, cold and dry weather will arrive on Mon and remain across the area into midweek. Daytime highs will only reach the low to mid 50s both Mon and Tues and overnight lows will be down near freezing or below most places inland of the beaches.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Strong high pressure over the Great Lakes on Wed will be quite expansive, spread all the way south the Gulf Coast. In the upper levels, a fairly zonal flow becomes more amplified as a ridge builds up from the south. This will maintain dry and fairly seasonable weather with temps down in the mid to upper 30s most places for lows and up close to 60 for highs. By Thurs night into Fri, a coastal trough will become more prominent as system over the Gulf takes shape. This will increase clouds and chances of rain heading into the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Complicated TAF period featuring IFR to LIFR cigs/vis early this morning at inland terminals, improving somewhat through the day while coastal sites currently in VFR should see MVFR cigs and possibly MVFR vis prior to daybreak, with some improvement during the morning as well. However, increasing shower coverage through the day will likely bring temporary MVFR vis and MVFR to possibly IFR cigs at times to the coastal terminals, particularly at ILM. Frontal band of heavy showers and gusty winds will approach this evening at the inland terminals with a sharp wind shift and IFR to potentially LIFR cigs and vis. This frontal band will approach the coastal sites near the end of the TAF period. A 1-2 hr window of southerly LLWS will likely accompany the frontal band as an associated low-level jet passes overhead.

Extended Outlook...IFR to LIFR ceilings/vis associated with the frontal band will shift eastward through the remainder of Sunday night as a strong cold front moves through. Gusty winds and brief LLWS will accompany the frontal band before rapid improvement in both cigs and vis and a decrease in winds occurs behind the front going through Monday. VFR expected for the remainder of the period.

MARINE
Through Tonight...The weak coastal trough which has prevented the winds from veering around ahead of the approaching strong cold front will gradually dissipate as the synoptic flow increases. As a result, light NE-E winds this afternoon will become Sly and increase across all of the waters tonight. The advection of warm dewpoints over the relatively cool shelf waters may produce a period of sea fog later tonight into Sunday morning with VSBYs 1 nm or less at times. Then a strong low-level wind field will spread across the area as the cold front moves through which will result in Small Craft Advisory conditions developing Sunday, and potential for Gale conditions Sunday night. Plan on issuing a Gale Watch for all waters Sunday night until the picture becomes a little more clear, but in the least expect strong Small Craft conditions during that time.
Seas will increase, especially during Sunday with 5-7 footers, then 7-10 footers possible by Sunday night. Additionally, the coverage of showers will increase during Sunday and Sunday night along with the potential for some severe thunderstorms which would promote locally higher winds gusts and seas.

Monday through Thursday...Strong and gusty NW winds early Mon will diminish into the afternoon allowing seas to drop from 5 to 7 ft down below SCA thresholds. Winds will diminish and slowly veer from NW to N to NE Mon through one area of high pressure over the Carolinas weakens as stronger area of high pressure to the N-NW becomes dominant. Speed up to 25 kts initially will be down to 15 to 20 by late Mon and 15 kts or less Mon night through Thurs. A longer period SE swell will mix in.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ250-252-254-256.
Gale Watch from this evening through Monday afternoon for AMZ250-252-254-256.

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Orton Point
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Sat -- 03:38 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:11 AM EST     4.05 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:29 PM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:37 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:19 PM EST     3.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Orton Point, North Carolina, Tide feet

Reaves Point
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Sat -- 03:38 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:15 AM EST     3.90 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:00 PM EST     0.57 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:37 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:21 PM EST     3.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Reaves Point, North Carolina, Tide feet

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