Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 3:41 PM   Moonset 2:50 AM

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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 310 Am Edt Sun May 19 2024
Through 7 am - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. A chance of showers.Today - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: ne 3 ft at 5 seconds and S 2 ft at 5 seconds. A chance of showers. Tonight - NE winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 6 seconds and S 1 ft at 5 seconds. A chance of showers in the evening. Mon - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 6 seconds and S 1 ft at 5 seconds. Mon night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 6 seconds. Tue - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 7 seconds. Tue night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 7 seconds. Wed - NE winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

AMZ200 310 Am Edt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - A cold front will sag southward early this morning, with unsettled weather lingering south of cape fear today. High pressure with accompanying dry weather will build in from the west for early next week.

FXUS62 KILM 190658 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 258 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
A storm system will bring unsettled weather and cooler temperatures today. Drier air will then move into the area to start off the work week. Warmer temperatures will return mid week with wetter weather expected late week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Low level convergence along a stalled boundary is maintaining scattered shallow showers across the Pee Dee region and into southeast NC. Training has been minimal thus far, with only localized area of 1+ inches in the last couple hours over Dillon county. The boundary will continue to sag southward, and with it the "line" of showers. A positively tilted 500mb trough across the East Coast, with base currently moving across northern GA, will shift eastward during the day leading to PVA across SC and some NVA for NC. Focus for rain chances will shift to southern parts of our area (Williamsburg and Georgetown counties in particular) from late morning into the afternoon with isolated thunder possible.

Behind the southward moving boundary, CAA in northerly flow is leading to widespread low stratus, which have already moved into our northern counties. This stratus in a pseudo-wedge pattern with high pressure to the north will persist for most of today maintaining overcast conditions until at least mid-afternoon. Thus high temps today are well below normal in the low 70s. There is a chance for a warmer than expected temps, mainly inland and northern areas, if the widespread stratus breaks apart sooner than expected and allows mid- May sunshine through in the afternoon. Mostly clear conditions for tonight (outside of potential for low clouds moving into Cape Fear late tonight) with continued CAA dropping low temps into upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Highlights: *No significant weather expected

Confidence: *Moderate to High

Details: Dry high pressure ridging into the area from the north and northeast will prevail. Below normal temps Monday/Monday night should get back closer to normal Tuesday/Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Highlights: *Low severe storm/flood risk possible starting Friday

Confidence: *Moderate to High through Thursday night *Moderate Friday through Sunday

Details: Expect a warming trend into Thursday with surface high pressure offshore and mid-level high pressure building from the southwest. Should remain dry through at least Wednesday night with only a slight chance of inland showers/storms Thursday as moisture and shortwaves arrive from the west. Rain chances could increase a bit more Thursday night and especially starting Friday as moisture/forcing increase further. However, details of the best rain chances/amounts are elusive at this point as much depends on the timing of the best upper forcing. Although the threat looks pretty low for now, we should start to see at least a low risk for a few stronger storms and/or flooding beginning Friday as instability/shear increase.

AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MVFR ceilings have begun to develop, mainly north of a semi- stationary line of showers and isolated thunderstorms across northern SC and into Cape Fear region. As the boundary associated with these showers move southward, sub-VFR ceilings will in turn spread further south. Ceilings expected to be solid IFR for majority of the area by pre-dawn hours and linger for a bit into the day Sunday. Low level wedging may keep low stratus across the area through at least 18z before improvements begin from NW to SE late afternoon. IFR may become low-end MVFR around midday (16z). After stratus clears out (possibly not until after 0z at SC coastal terminals), VFR conditions tonight.

Current line of showers/storms will impact KFLO for a few more hours before moving southward. Additional activity centered across SC may impact KCRE and KMYR late morning into afternoon hours. Winds generally out of the NE 5-10 kts majority of TAF period.

Extended Outlook...VFR during the day on Monday. VFR should otherwise prevail with early morning vis or cig restrictions possible each day through the end of the period.

MARINE
Through Tonight...As a boundary shifts south this morning and high pressure ridges down from the north, northeast flow will develop across the local coastal waters by late this morning. Sustained winds 10-15 kts this afternoon will increase a bit into tonight in response to tightening pressure gradient, with gusts around 20 kts this evening and tonight. Seas around 2 ft this morning will increase to 2-4 ft by late afternoon, and 3-4 ft tonight, as NE wind wave builds and dominates the wave spectrum. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be mostly confined to coastal waters south of Cape Fear late this morning through the afternoon.

Monday through Friday...High pressure to the north/northeast will shift farther east mid to late week causing northerly winds to shift to more easterly Tuesday, southeasterly Wednesday and then southerly Wednesday night. No significant concerns expected.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Due to an upcoming full moon on Thursday, chances for minor coastal flooding will increase through the week. Minor coastal flooding along the Lower Cape Fear River at Downtown Wilmington is forecasted for this evening, and will remain likely with each evening high tide for most of the week. Coastal flooding at the local beaches will be possible mid-week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Orton Point
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Sun -- 12:53 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:02 AM EDT     3.79 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:11 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:38 PM EDT     4.29 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Orton Point, North Carolina, Tide feet

Reaves Point
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Sun -- 12:31 AM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:02 AM EDT     3.43 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:43 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:42 PM EDT     3.89 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Reaves Point, North Carolina, Tide feet

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