Sunrise 6:30 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 3:24 AM   Moonset 3:29 PM

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FXUS62 KCAE 041739 AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 139 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
Showers and thunderstorms have moved into the area and will continue through early next week with showers and thunderstorms possible each day. Dry conditions should prevail for midweek, with a return of showers and storms possible again by Friday.
Expect well above normal temperatures each day.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Showers and a few thunderstorms have developed this morning across the western Midlands and CSRA with another area currently developing in the eastern Midlands. This is in response to the short wave moving through the region with another short wave moving through the area later today and tonight. Although there is ample instability for thunderstorms the cloud cover is limiting heating keeping much of the convection limited in vertical development and thus more showers than thunderstorms. Rainfall efficiency has been impressive so far with rates between 2 and 2.5 inches per hour and with pwat values ranging from 1.5 to 1.8 inches through tonight expect this to continue. Will be monitoring several areas across the CSRA and western Midlands as up to 2.5 inches of rainfall has already fallen. Will also be monitoring the developing thunderstorms and rainfall rates in the eastern Midlands for any hydro related issues. High temperatures this afternoon will range from the mid 70s in the western Midlands and CSRA to the upper 70s to around 80 in the eastern Midlands. Low temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Sunday and Sunday night: An upper shortwave is forecast to continue trekking eastward through the day Sunday and is expected to be offshore by Sunday night. At the surface, high pressure offshore is expected to drift eastward, but still aid in keeping plenty of moisture in the area, with PWAT values around 1.5". A relative low in shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast due to the shortwave passing to our east. However, a weaker shortwave is anticipated to move through the region, resulting in scattered shower and thunderstorms, particularly in the afternoon. With weaker support, we're not expecting the activity to be as widespread as today or Monday. Temperatures are expected to be near average once again during the day, but relatively warm overnight.

Monday and Monday night: Another shortwave is forecast to move across the area on Monday. This shortwave looks to be a bit more pronounced, leading to an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity for the day, especially in the afternoon and evening.
The upper air dynamics are anticipated to be similar to today, limiting the severe threat. PWATs are anticipated to increase some again, which could lead to locally heavy rainfall again.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The upper shortwave is expected to move out of the area Tuesday, taking the precipitation along with it. That said some scattered showers are possible during the morning before they exit the area. Broad ridging then builds back over the area, which will aid in a midweek warm up. Temperatures are forecast to warm to well above average by Wednesday and Thursday. A larger scale trough is anticipated to move toward and through the region for the end of the week, bringing a cold front along with it. Model guidance does differ in the timing of its passage, which would affect how warm we get on Friday. Regardless of the timing, chances of precipitation returns with this system.

AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Variable conditions in showers and thunderstorms with restrictions likely for much of the TAF period.

Showers and a few thunderstorms have mainly been west of the terminals this morning and are now developing across the entire area. Have update the TAFs to include the developing convective activity through the evening hours. Cigs with the showers and thunderstorms will lower to 1 to 1.5 kft with vsbys lowering to 1 to 2SM as showers have been efficient rain producers with rainfall rates around 2 inches per hour. Convection will diminish early tonight however with high amounts of low level moisture expect stratus and fog to continue through the end of the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Fog and stratus possible through at least Monday with abundant low level moisture in place. Showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions possible Sunday through Tuesday.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
GA...None.

Bacon Bridge
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Sat -- 02:46 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:55 AM EDT     2.06 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:14 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:27 PM EDT     2.20 feet High Tide
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Bacon Bridge, Ashley River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Pimlico
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Sat -- 03:02 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:38 AM EDT     1.89 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:30 PM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:10 PM EDT     2.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pimlico, West Branch, Cooper River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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