Tuesday, March31, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Florence, SC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 7:40PM Tuesday March 31, 2020 4:24 PM EDT (20:24 UTC) Moonrise 10:42AMMoonset 12:34AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 319 Pm Edt Tue Mar 31 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Tonight..E winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming ne 20 to 25 kt late this evening, then becoming N overnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers with a slight chance of tstms this evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this evening.
Wed..N winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..E winds 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 319 Pm Edt Tue Mar 31 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Low pressure will move off the south carolina coast this evening, accompanied by rain, wind, and large seas. High pressure will build in from the west through Saturday with improving winds.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Florence, SC
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location: 34.14, -79.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 311906 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 306 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will bring several hours of moderate to heavy rain this evening through tonight. Behind the departing system, cooler and drier air will build across the area through the weekend. Light rain chances return early next week along with above normal temps.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Deepening surface low pressure across central Georgia will move east along a stalled front, moving off the coast near Georgetown this evening. Cool and rather dry air north of the front is completely stable, but we're watching to see just how far north the front returns ahead of the low this evening since surface instability will only exist along and south of the front. Forecast helicity values go crazy this evening (0-1km: 250 m^2/s^2, 0-2km: 500 m^2/s^2) but are meaningless in terms of severe weather without surface-based instability. A non-zero risk will exist for a tornado or damaging wind gusts if a convective cell can develop on or south of the front.

Outside of Georgetown county, the focus of tonight's forecast is on rainfall amounts. PoPs are 100 percent areawide, and QPF ranges from 0.5 inches west of I-95 to around 1 inch in Wilmington. The bulk of this rain should come down in heavy showers this evening, with lighter showers expected overnight as colder air builds in behind the departing low. Forecast lows are a uniform 46-48 degrees with clouds and a stiff northerly breezy persisting overnight.

Clouds should gradually clear from west to east late Wednesday morning through the afternoon as high pressure builds in. Highs should remain 10 degrees below normal with upper 50s to lower 60s expected, warmest across the Pee Dee region. Clearing skies and lighter winds Wednesday night should allow good radiational cooling, and lows should reach the lower 40s away from the beaches. Normally colder spots (peat soils in pocosins and Carolina Bays) across southeastern North Carolina could dip into the upper 30s if winds go calm.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Dry and cool conditions in store for Thursday, courtesy of an upper ridge building in from the SW and a surface high building in from the NW. Highs in the upper 60s and lows Thursday night in the low 40s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Ridging aloft and at the surface continuing to build in will keep things pretty dry Friday and Saturday, with temps near normal. Mid- level high pressure overhead Sunday and Monday, with surface high sliding offshore by early Sunday allowing weak return flow to develop. Combination will allow warming trend to continue, with highs in the low 70s Sunday and in the upper 70s Monday and Tuesday. Chance of light rain showers Monday and Tuesday as a weak front drops down from the north. Recent models showing decent instability Monday afternoon that may allow some afternoon convection.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Conditions will deteriorate later today as a deepening low approaches the region. Ceilings will lower fairly rapidly latter this afternoon, with moderate to heavy showers by early evening. IFR conditions are expected this evening as the low further deepens. East winds this afternoon will shift to the northeast tonight as the low moves offshore and begins to bomb as it hits the Gulfstream. Windy and much cooler conditions on Wednesday.

Extended Outlook . VFR Wednesday through the weekend.

MARINE. The weak cold front that pushed through our area late last night has stalled between Beaufort and Savannah. Low pressure deepening across central Georgia has linked up with this front and should emerge off the coast this evening around Georgetown. Northeast winds across most of our area may shift southerly for a couple hours early this evening in the Georgetown/Winyah Bay vicinity as the low pulls the front northward, but winds will shift northeasterly again tonight as the low shoots out to sea. Showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected.

Models have mostly shifted northward over the past 24 hours with the predicted path of the low. They've also decreased slightly with how much wind we'll see behind the low, 20-30 knots throughout the area. The best chance of seeing 35 knot gusts appears to be north of Cape Fear, and the Gale Warning has been trimmed back to just those waters for tonight. Breezy north winds should only slowly diminish during the afternoon into Wednesday night.

Benign marine conditions Thursday and Friday with high pressure building in, with NNW winds 10-15 kts Thursday through Friday and seas 2-3 ft due to weakening ENE swell and wind chop. Seas increase again Friday night through Sunday as a building 14 sec E swell arrives. Seas 2-4 ft Saturday morning increase to 4-5 ft Saturday night for SE NC coastal waters and 3-4 ft NE SC waters. 6 footers are possible for SE NC waters late Saturday through early Sunday. Winds Saturday ENE around 10 kts becoming easterly Sat night.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ252-254-256. Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250.

SYNOPSIS . ILM NEAR TERM . TRA SHORT TERM . VAO LONG TERM . VAO AVIATION . 43 MARINE . TRA/VAO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 53 mi54 min N 4.1 G 6 58°F
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 55 mi54 min 61°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Florence - Florence Regional Airport, SC4 mi31 minNNW 810.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity66°F48°F54%1005.6 hPa
Marion County Airport, SC22 mi29 minSE 810.00 miOvercast63°F48°F60%1004.7 hPa
Darlington, Darlington County Jetport Airport, SC23 mi28 minNE 710.00 miLight Rain57°F52°F83%1006.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFLO

Wind History from FLO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW5SW7W5NW3CalmW3CalmW3NW4N6N5N5NE7N7NE7NE8NE10E12NE13E12E15SE12NW8
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SW11SW11SW8SW9SW9SW11W8W9W10W6W6W4SW5NW4NW6W6NW7N9N73CalmNW6Calm
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Tide / Current Tables for Rhems, Black Mingo Creek, Black River, South Carolina
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Rhems
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:02 AM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:02 AM EDT     1.91 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:49 PM EDT     0.98 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:25 PM EDT     1.54 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.711.31.61.81.91.91.71.51.31.11111.21.41.51.51.51.41.31.1

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Conway
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:30 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:17 AM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:21 AM EDT     1.32 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:04 PM EDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:44 PM EDT     1.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.50.50.50.60.81.11.21.31.31.21.110.80.70.70.70.80.911.11.110.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.