Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Florence, SC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:11PM Friday December 13, 2019 4:59 PM EST (21:59 UTC) Moonrise 6:42PMMoonset 8:32AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 230 Pm Est Fri Dec 13 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 pm est this evening through late Saturday night...
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Rain, mainly this evening. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm late.
Sat..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Rain likely in the morning, then a slight chance of light rain in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft after midnight.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..S winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
AMZ200 230 Pm Est Fri Dec 13 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles. Low pressure system will bring increased waveheights and winds between 20 and 25 kts with gusts to 30 kts through early Sunday morning. SEa fog and Thunderstorms are possible through Saturday. High pressure returns with improving conditions offshore Sunday into Monday. The next chances for unsettled weather is Tuesday with another approaching storm.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Florence, SC
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location: 34.14, -79.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 131949 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 249 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

SYNOPSIS. A developing low pressure near the mouth of the Mississippi River will continue to deepen as it moves along the Carolina Coast late tonight into Saturday. High pressure will build in from the northwest late Saturday through Sunday. Southerly winds will bring warmer temperatures Monday and Tuesday, followed by increasing rain chances as another cold front crosses the area late Tuesday. Cold and dry weather will follow through the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Main forecast concern for the next 36 hours continues to be the moderate to heavy rain potential that could result in minor flooding, especially for poor drainage and low lying areas.

Latest radar trends during the early afternoon showed light scattered rain across much of the Cape Fear region, with moderate to heavy rainfall occurring across South Carolina and moving northeastward. Model soundings continue to have much of the instability remaining offshore with this storm system, so not expecting any thunderstorms other than a few rumbles heard near the coastline. Warm front associated with the low pressure system lifts to the north today and may bring a brief break in the rainfall overnight tonight. The cold frontal advance brings more rainfall toward Saturday morning and last through late Saturday morning.

After the upper level trough base swings across the Cape Fear Region late Saturday afternoon, pressure rises associated with incoming high pressure will bring a break in cloud cover and a return of dry weather.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. In the mid-levels, heights show ridging increasing, but this ridge will be short-lived. At the surface, high-pressure along an axis from northern Florida to southern Minnesota will shift northeast of the area by late Sunday night. No precipitation in the period with no synoptic/mesoscale forcing and limited moistures. High temperatures Sunday will range from near 60 to the lower 60s. Low temperatures lower 40s inland to mid to upper 40s within 10 miles of the coast.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. With the progressive pattern, a trough is present in the mid- levels in the lee of the Rockies on Monday, and by Wednesday the trough will shift to the east coast. The 12 UTC run of the 500 height shows the GFS is slightly faster but the ECMWF and GEFS are in closer agreement. At the surface the GEFS is much faster with the mean low just north of Pittsburgh and the ECMWF ensemble mean surface low near Louisville, Kentucky. Confidence in precipitation timing is a confidence issue.

The ECMWF ensemble 24-hour probabilities of > 0.50" of QPF around 20% to 30%, but > 0.10" probabilities are greater than 80%. The GEFS is a bit higher for > 0.50".

Ahead of the surface front, high temperatures will be in upper 60s Monday and near 70 on Tuesday. The low temperatures, Monday morning are in the lower to middle 40s and rising to the middle to upper 50s Tuesday morning. After the front a cooling trend is established with Highs in the 50s but lows will fall to freezing or just below Wednesday night and Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Widespread IFR ceilings have settled across the area, with LIFR ceilings near our western border, including KFLO. Look for IFR/LIFR ceilings to continue through tomorrow morning as a surface low tracks up the east coast and warm advection continues. May see some brief improvements to MVFR at times today and tonight, but would be brief. Ceilings will begin to improve across the area tomorrow morning. Visibilities will likely fluctuate throughout TAF period depending on rain rates, with guidance indicating widespread reduction in visibility overnight. Moderate rain forecasted through this evening, with a lull in precipitation overnight before another band of rain moves through in the morning. Light north-northeast surface winds currently will quickly veer to southwesterlies this evening with passage of the low pressure center. SW wind speeds increase tomorrow morning. Brief window of possible LLWS at coastal sites tomorrow morning at 12z as 40kt southerly flow at 2kft clips the coast, before winds at that level weaken and veer to westerly.

Extended Outlook . MVFR/IFR likely through Saturday evening as an area of low pressure moves by the coastal Carolinas. VFR expected Sunday and Monday. Sub-VFR conditions could return Tuesday with a cold front passage with VFR Wednesday.

MARINE.

Tonight through Saturday Night:

Coastal storm system will bring significant wave heights between 5 and 7 feet offshore with southwest winds 20 to 25 kts with gusts in excess of 30 kts for the next 12 to 24 hours. Wave trains from the southeast between 6 and 8 seconds and from the east around 9 seconds. Winds are expected to gradually shift to the west Saturday night as a cold front passes. Slight chances for thunderstorms through tonight with chances increasing toward 20 NM offshore with locally higher winds and waves. Rain continues into Saturday afternoon with decreasing thunderstorm threat as front pushes instability further offshore heading into Saturday night. Sea fog with patchy reduced visibility offshore is also a possibility for the next 24 hours. Small craft advisory remains in effect until Saturday night.

Sunday through Wednesday:

High pressure will briefly be over the waters on Sunday into Monday but a cold front from the west will quickly cross the waters late Tuesday night. Winds will approach 25 knots but confidence is low as GEFS is below 50% for winds reaching Small Craft, and the ECMWF ensemble mean is slightly higher. As the front passes east of the coastal waters, winds will slowly diminish by Wednesday. Sea height on Tuesday will increase to 3 to 5 feet but will fall to 2 to 4 feet by Wednesday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Sunday for AMZ254-256. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Sunday for AMZ250-252.

SYNOPSIS . RH NEAR TERM . MAS SHORT TERM . RH LONG TERM . RH AVIATION . VAO MARINE . MAS/RH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 53 mi70 min N 4.1 G 7 45°F
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 55 mi60 min 52°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Florence - Florence Regional Airport, SC4 mi67 minNNE 86.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist47°F44°F90%1013.4 hPa
Marion County Airport, SC22 mi65 minN 65.00 miHeavy Rain45°F44°F100%1014.2 hPa
Darlington, Darlington County Jetport Airport, SC23 mi64 minNNE 810.00 miRain45°F44°F97%1014.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFLO

Wind History from FLO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE12NE10NE11NE11NE13NE11NE11NE9NE9NE9NE9NE7NE7N8N8NE8NE8NE5NE8NE5W9NW7NE8NE6
1 day agoN4N4CalmNE3N5N5N4N5NE6N7N6NE7N6NE8NE10NE10NE11NE11E10NE11NE11NE13NE12NE10
2 days agoSW7S6S5SW5N11NW14NE10N9N8N9N10N11N10N10NE8N8N7NE12N8N12N10N11N12N8

Tide / Current Tables for Rhems, Black Mingo Creek, Black River, South Carolina
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Rhems
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:03 AM EST     1.78 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:25 AM EST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:29 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:28 PM EST     2.25 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:10 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:42 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:07 PM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.71.81.71.40.90.50-0.2-0.20.20.81.522.22.221.61.10.70.30.20.30.6

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Conway
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:22 AM EST     1.24 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:28 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:40 AM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:47 PM EST     1.56 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:08 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:22 PM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.91.11.21.210.70.40.1-0.1-0.20.10.50.91.31.51.61.51.20.90.50.30.10.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.