Monday, October14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Florence, SC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 6:47PM Monday October 14, 2019 10:27 PM EDT (02:27 UTC) Moonrise 6:36PMMoonset 6:54AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 952 Pm Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Overnight..W winds 5 kt, becoming n. Seas 1 foot.
Tue..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue night..SE winds 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the evening.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft, then 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..E winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 952 Pm Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Dry high pressure builds down from the north tonight into early Tuesday. Rain is expected late Tuesday into Wednesday as a warm front lifts north. Cooler and drier air is then expected Wednesday night through this weekend behind a cold front.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Florence, SC
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location: 34.14, -79.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 142314
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
714 pm edt Mon oct 14 2019

Synopsis
Dry high pressure will build in from the north through Tuesday.

Rain chances will increase Tuesday night into Wednesday as a
warm front lifts north. Cooler and drier air is expected
Thursday and Friday with temperatures moderating for the
weekend.

Near term through Tuesday
Latest sfc analysis shows a weak frontal boundary across the area
with 1019 mb high pressure across the tn valley. The high slides
east into the area tonight, leading to dry wx and a mostly clear sky
with light N winds. This will allow for temps to cool much further
than last night... Lows range through the 50s.

Main forecast change was to slow down timing of pops on Tuesday.

Although models have been known to be late with the onset of pcpn
associated with weak WAA ahead of an approaching warm front, most
guidance has slowed the timing of arrival of pcpn to the aftn over
sw areas, and after dark over NE areas. Otherwise, just some
increasing clouds with high temps in the mid upr 70s.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night
Weak surface wave will move east along the front stalled across the
southeast Tue night into wed. The wave becomes a more defined surface
low Wed morning, passing west of the area and lifting the stalled
boundary north as a warm front. Rainfall chances ramp up Tue night
as deep moisture arrives. Instability is limited due to nocturnal
timing, but combination of convergence and mid-level forcing from
southern stream shortwave should ensure healthy coverage of
rain showers Tue night into wed.

Warm front will be north of the area with surface based instability
marginally increasing through midday wed. Cold front moves across
the forecast area Wed afternoon, ending any rainfall and ushering in
a cooler and drier air mass. Precipitable water in excess of 1.5
inches for an extended period, and in excess of 1.8 inches at times,
will help generate some healthy rainfall totals Tue night and first
part of wed. Many areas will see in excess of an inch of rain, which
should fall over an extended period of time.

Although cold advection following the cold front will be robust, not
expecting much in the way of strong severe storms Wed afternoon.

Limited MLCAPE and low shear will not produce an environment
supportive of strong severe storms. Temperatures well above climo
tue night and above climo Wed will end up near to slightly below
climo Wed night as cold advection kicks in.

Long term Thursday through Monday
Deep 5h trough Thu into Fri gives way to shortwave ridging Sat into
sun. Surface high builds in from the west as deep northwest flow
dries out the region. Deep mixing could make Thu afternoon breezy as
cold air continues spreading over the region. Moisture starts to
increase early next week as southern stream system moves along the
gulf coast. Unsure how far north the system will end up, lowering
confidence in rainfall chances. Pattern would tend to keep the
system farther south, crossing northern fl and moving out to sea sun
into mon.

-strong cold advection Thu into Fri will drop temps 5 to 10
degrees below climo to end the week.

-air mass moderates for the weekend with temperatures becoming
more seasonable.

-weak low moving along the gulf coast may spread clouds and
increase rain chances Sun night and mon.

Aviation 23z Monday through Saturday
A large range of dew points across a cold front stationed just west
of the forecast area's coastline. Afternoon cumulus that developed
east of the front will dissipate overnight and the elevated dew
points in this area will help the formation of patchy fog along the
coast tonight. Moisture near the surface is shallow, so don't expect
ifr conditions, but a few areas of MVFR br are possible. For our
inland terminals, it will remain too dry on the western side of the
front for fog with dew points holding in the low 50s tonight.

Afternoon cumulus possible tomorrow ahead of mid-level clouds
developing late in the afternoon announcing the arrival of the next
storm system to affect the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Extended outlook... Ifr MVFR conditions Tuesday night through
Wednesday with an improvement to cooler and drier conditions and
vfr through the remainder of the period.

Marine
Nw flow becomes N tonight at ~10 kt as high pressure builds in from
the w, and seas remain at 1-2 ft. Seas become 2-3 ft then for tue
with 10-15 kt NE winds ahead of an approaching warm front. This will
be primarily 3-4 second NE wind wave, but also includes a ~1 ft 9-10
second E swell.

Southwest flow will be increasing Tue night and Wed as warm front
lifts north of the waters and cold front approaches from the west.

Front moves across the waters later Wed with strong cold advection
resulting in offshore flow in excess of 20 kt Wed night. Small craft
advisory conditions are possible Tue night through Wed night,
although confidence on timing and duration is low. Gradient relaxes
as high pressure builds in from the west. Speeds drop to 10 kt or
less later Thu with offshore flow slowly become onshore Fri into
sat. Seas build from 2 to 3 ft Tue night to 4 to 6 ft on wed.

Offshore flow Wed night into Thu will drop seas for the end of the
week. Seas will be a mix of 4 to 5 sec wind wave, with a southerly
wind wave through Wed becoming a northerly wind wave Thu through
sat.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... Coastal flood advisory until 1 am edt Tuesday for ncz107.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ilm
near term... Mas
short term... Iii
long term... Iii
aviation... 21
marine... Iii mas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 53 mi58 min SSE 1 G 1.9 60°F
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 55 mi58 min 71°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Florence - Florence Regional Airport, SC4 mi35 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist62°F57°F86%1018.7 hPa
Marion County Airport, SC22 mi33 minN 010.00 miFair61°F59°F94%1019 hPa
Darlington, Darlington County Jetport Airport, SC23 mi32 minNW 310.00 miFair59°F55°F90%1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFLO

Wind History from FLO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5CalmS3S5W4S8S84W7W4W6NW7NW6W3W744W4N6N5NE4CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS5S3S4S3SW3SW4SW5S3S4S4SW6SW10SW10W7SW8S5S6SE8S9S6S6S4NW8N4
2 days agoW3W4W4CalmW6W8W6W4W4W4W6W9W9W6SW8SW7SW7SW7CalmS6S4S5S6S6

Tide / Current Tables for Rhems, Black Mingo Creek, Black River, South Carolina
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Rhems
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Mon -- 02:41 AM EDT     2.09 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:01 AM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:55 PM EDT     2.18 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:23 PM EDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.922.11.91.71.30.90.60.50.611.51.92.12.22.11.91.51.20.90.70.71

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Conway
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:00 AM EDT     1.45 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:16 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:14 PM EDT     1.52 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:38 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.811.21.41.41.41.210.70.50.40.40.60.91.21.41.51.51.31.10.90.70.50.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.