Thursday, July16, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Casa Conejo, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 8:09PM Thursday July 16, 2020 7:36 AM PDT (14:36 UTC) Moonrise 2:28AMMoonset 4:44PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 301 Am Pdt Thu Jul 16 2020
Today..SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 7 seconds.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 7 seconds.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 7 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sat..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 7 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 5 to 10 kt late. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt early, becoming 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog.
PZZ600 301 Am Pdt Thu Jul 16 2020
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 09z, or 2 am pdt, a 1030 mb high pressure system was centered 1100 nm west of eureka. A 1001 mb low was centered near las vegas.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Casa Conejo, CA
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location: 34.15, -119     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 161251 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 551 AM PDT Thu Jul 16 2020

SYNOPSIS. 16/320 AM.

A slight warming trend will take place late this week and into the weekend as onshore flow weakens. Continued night through morning low clouds and fog will push into coastal areas and the lower valleys. Clouds will clear to the beaches each day. Winds will be gusty at times in the Antelope Valley from Thursday through the weekend. Slight cooling is possible early next week.

SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT). 16/302 AM.

The latest water vapor imagery indicates a weak upper-level trough of low pressure just west of the Channel Islands this morning, and an upper-level ridge of high pressure centered over north Texas. Onshore flow remains in place across the area this morning but is weakening this morning. Marine layer low clouds and fog are becoming well-entrenched early this morning as the marine layer should deepen to near 2000 feet deep later this morning, from around 1200 feet deep currently.

Onshore flow will continue to weaken over the coming days as the weak trough wobbles northward and is displaced by the ridge to the east builds westward. 500 mb heights and 950 mb temperatures climb a bit each day through the weekend. Onshore flow will remain in place, keeping the warming trend moderated along the coast. Areas away from the coast will warm a degree or two each day, while the marine layer thins.

The main wrinkle seems to be the amount of warming taking place for Saturday (and Sunday). Forecast guidance continues to downplay the warming trend, but 950 mb temperatures warm by about 5 degrees Celsius across the South Coast Basin on Saturday. Coupled with a marine layer thinning to near 1000 feet, some concern is placed that the valleys, mountains and desert could be a tad warmer than forecast. The current forecast falls inline with temperatures studies across the area. A slight tweak up in temperatures was applied, especially across the interior.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED). 16/321 AM.

500 mb winds switch to southeasterly between Saturday night and Sunday and should cause onshore flow to weaken additionally. While southeast winds typically can be indicative of monsoonal flow setting up across the region, any mid-level moisture looks to stay south and east of the area. Additional warming should take on place on Sunday, but some concern does exists that about 3-5 degrees of warming could take place. The marine layer could become very patchy or non-existent on Sunday as it continues to thin. For now, the current forecast trends a degree or two warmer.

Slight cooling should develop for early next week as southwest flow aloft redevelops. Onshore flow should strengthen some and a better semblance of marine layer low clouds and fog should take shape at least for the coastal areas.

AVIATION. 16/1250Z.

At 12Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1700 ft deep. The top of the inversion was around 3400 ft with a temp of 23 degrees Celsius.

Widespread low clouds in all coastal and valley areas with the exception of the far interior valleys SLO County, the Cuyama Valley, and the Santa Clarita Valley. Conds were mostly low MVFR, except IFR to LIFR north of Pt. Conception and in the valleys and foothills. Expect skies to clear by mid morning in the valleys and by late morning on the coastal plain, except possible early afternoon at some beaches.

Gusty SW to W winds will affect the L.A. County mtns through the I-14 corridor and the Antelope Valley this afternoon and evening.

Expect similar low clouds pattern tonight, except the marine layer may be a bit more shallow, so clouds may not extend as far into the valleys south of Pt Conception.

KLAX . Moderate confidence in the 12Z TAF. There is a 20% chance clouds will clear as early as 17Z or as late as 21Z. There is a 30% chance that cigs will not arrive until as late as 09Z tonight and they could be in the IFR category.

KBUR . Moderate confidence in the 12Z TAF. There is a 20-30% chance that IFR conds will persist thru 17Z. There is a 20-30% chance that IFR cigs will arrive tonight by 11Z Fri.

MARINE. 16/306 AM.

High confidence that winds and seas will remain below SCA level through at least Sat. Gusts up to 20 KT are possible each afternoon near the San Pedro Channel and Anacapa Passage.

There is a 40% chance of Small Craft advisory level NW winds across the outer waters, mainly from Pt. Sal southward Sun, then SCA level winds are likely across much of the outer waters Sunday.

Seas should be relatively small for this time of the year, although any waves will be primarily short period.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . NONE. PZ . NONE.

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SAT-WED).

No significant hazards expected.



PUBLIC . Hall AVIATION . DB MARINE . DB/RK SYNOPSIS . Hall

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46025 - Santa Monica Basin - 33NM West Southwest of Santa Monica, CA 27 mi26 min N 3.9 G 7.8 63°F 70°F1013.1 hPa59°F
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 28 mi73 min 65°F2 ft
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 28 mi48 min 68°F
46251 40 mi40 min 69°F2 ft
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 45 mi26 min WNW 3.9 G 5.8 58°F 62°F1014 hPa57°F
PXAC1 47 mi186 min Calm G 0
BAXC1 48 mi180 min E 4.1 G 5.1
OHBC1 - 9410660 - Los Angeles, CA 49 mi48 min 64°F
PFDC1 49 mi180 min N 2.9 G 4.1
PSXC1 49 mi126 min NE 1.9 G 2.9

Wind History for Santa Monica, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Camarillo, Camarillo Airport, CA6 mi41 minW 48.00 miOvercast62°F55°F80%1013.8 hPa
Point Mugu, Naval Air Warfare Center, CA7 mi44 minNW 510.00 miOvercast62°F55°F80%1013.4 hPa
Oxnard, Oxnard Airport, CA11 mi45 minNNW 410.00 miOvercast59°F57°F93%1013 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCMA

Wind History from CMA (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN3NW35SW9W9W9W7
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2 days agoCalmW6W8SW8
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Tide / Current Tables for Mugu Lagoon (ocean pier), California
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Mugu Lagoon (ocean pier)
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:05 AM PDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:28 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:57 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:20 AM PDT     3.22 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:45 PM PDT     2.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:44 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:09 PM PDT     5.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:07 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.40.80.60.71.21.82.533.23.22.92.62.42.42.63.13.84.55.15.45.34.73.82.7

Tide / Current Tables for Port Hueneme, California
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Port Hueneme
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:07 AM PDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:28 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:57 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:27 AM PDT     3.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:47 PM PDT     2.44 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:45 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:16 PM PDT     5.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:08 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.40.80.60.71.21.82.533.23.232.72.52.42.73.13.84.65.25.55.44.942.9

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.