Monday, January25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Casa Conejo, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 5:20PM Monday January 25, 2021 1:06 PM PST (21:06 UTC) Moonrise 3:31PMMoonset 5:31AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 901 Am Pst Mon Jan 25 2021
.gale warning in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
Today..NW winds 20 to 30 kt, becoming 25 to 35 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 45 kt. Combined seas 10 to 13 ft dominant period 8 seconds. Showers in the morning. Slight chance of tstms. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..NW winds 25 to 35 kt with local gusts to 50 kt, becoming 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt after midnight. Combined seas 11 to 14 ft dominant period 10 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the evening. Chance of showers.
Tue..NW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, becoming 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt by the afternoon. Combined seas 8 to 11 ft dominant period 14 seconds, subsiding to 6 to 8 ft dominant period 15 seconds in the afternoon.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 14 seconds. Chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..SE winds 10 to 20 kt early, becoming 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 14 seconds. Rain likely in the morning, then rain.
Wed night..SE winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 15 seconds. Rain likely.
Thu..SE winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft. Rain.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 20 kt early, becoming W 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft. Rain likely.
PZZ600 901 Am Pst Mon Jan 25 2021
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 16z, or 8 am pst, a 1002 mb low pressure center was located just south of bishop, ca with a cold front extending into the inner coastal waters. A 1037 mb high was located 1000 nm west of eureka. Widespread gale force winds and very dangerous, steep seas persist across the entire coastal waters through early Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Casa Conejo, CA
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location: 34.15, -119     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 251838 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1038 AM PST Mon Jan 25 2021

SYNOPSIS. 25/1004 AM.

A cold storm system with low snow levels and very gusty west to northwest winds will impact the region through this evening, with dangerous driving and boating conditions and many mountain road delays. Drier conditions are forecast for Tuesday, then a much wetter storm system will stall over the region Wednesday and Thursday, mainly Santa Barbara and northward, then move through area later Thursday and Friday. There is a potential for several inches of rain with flooding.

SHORT TERM (TDY-WED). 25/945 AM.

***UPDATE***

The organized widespread rain from last night has turned to showers focused over the Central Coast and coastal waters, as well as snow showers over the northern mountain slopes and interior valleys. The snow will be the main precipitation impact for today, with snow levels hovering around 2500 feet and many mountain roads (included Interstate 5) facing many hours of delays or hard closures. Upped the chances of snow up there today and tonight, as the moderate to strong northwest flow will keep the moisture in places. Cannot rule out a snow flurry on the Central Coast tonight as well, especially in the hills. Winds will be the largest impact today. Widespread Wind Advisories are place through this evening, and while some of the valleys will probably not hit criteria, it will be windy so will keep them in play. Besides the mountains, where Winter Storm Warnings are in play to cover the wind and snow together, the coastal areas will see the strongest winds. Gusts into the 50 mph range are not of the question, which are more than capable of breaking tree branches and poorly rooted trees, as well as create a few power outages. Thunderstorms remain possible with such cold air aloft, but trimmed removed the chances over the mountains and interior valleys as the threat is mainly closer to the coast. Will look into what to do with the Freeze Watches currently out, which are challenging due to the wind and moisture in the air.

***From Previous Discussion***

Showers will taper off overnight with temperatures cooling off across wind protected areas. A Freeze Watch is in effect for the wind protected areas in Santa Clarita and Ventura County Valleys early Tuesday as lows will lower to around 30 degrees. There will be a brief respite from the rain before the next more potent system approaches the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. 12Z models from both the GFS and EC continue to hang the atmospheric river up towards SLO County Tuesday night and Wednesday. Rain will overspread SLO and SBA counties Tuesday night and Wednesday with the potential for heavy rainfall Wednesday and Wednesday evening. The subtropical tap will continue to stall over the SLO/SBA Counties through Wednesday night.

Through Wednesday evening, SLO and SBA counties are expected to receive between 2 and 4 inches of rainfall with amounts dropping down to 0.10-0.25 inches across LA county. Strong southerly flow ahead of the system will allow for snow levels to increase to around 5000 feet on Wednesday. Additionally, these southerly winds could exceed 60 MPH in some areas across SLO and SBA counties and will need to be watched closely.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN). 25/333 AM.

For the extended period, both the GFS and EC are now in pretty good agreement with large scale features as well as the placement of the heaviest rainfall in association with the atmospheric river. As mentioned in the short term discussion, the front will continue to hang across SLO and SBA Counties through Thursday morning. So, moderate to heavy rainfall will continue across SLO and SBA counties with lesser rainfall across Ventura and LA counties. By Thursday late afternoon and evening, the front will begin to sag southward with heavier precipitation developing over Ventura and LA counties Thursday night/Friday morning with the rain tapering off by Friday evening. Overall, this will be a significant rain and snow event, especially across SLO/SBA Counties.Rainfall totals from Tuesday night through Friday evening are expected to range from 4-8 inches across SLO/SBA counties to 1.50-4 inches across Ventura and LA counties. Southerly flow ahead of the system will keep snow levels around 5000-5500 feet on Thursday and Friday. So, higher mountain elevations can expect some significant snowfall accumulations (1-2 feet potentially) if not a little more at the highest elevations. Additionally, the southerly winds associated with this system look to be pretty strong. So, widespread advisory level winds are likely in many areas with the potential for warning level winds.

There will be a myriad of hazards across the area Tuesday night through Friday. Rainfall amounts and intensities could produce debris flow problems in and around recent burn areas. Dangerous winter weather conditions are likely in the mountains. The combination of gusty southerly winds and a rain-soaked ground could result in some down trees or tree limbs. Overall, this is a very significant weather event on tap for our area.

On Saturday and Sunday, there is the potential for a weak storm to impact the area, mainly north of Point Conception. Rainfall amounts look to be light. However, enough of a precipitation threat to warrant chance or slight chance POPs for SLO and SBA Counties.

AVIATION. 25/1835Z.

At 18z at KLAX, there was no marine inversion.

Moderate confidence in TAFs before 00Z with some uncertainty in the timing of gusty winds. There will be widespread strong west to northwest winds across the region through this evening, with areas of moderate to possibly severe turbulence, and mdt to strong UDDF.

KLAX . Moderate to high confidence in the 18Z TAF. There is a 20% chance of high MVFR/low VFR cigs through this evening, especially if a shower affects the airport. Very strong west to northwest winds are likely through late this evening, with areas of turbulence likely.

KBUR . Moderate confidence in the 18Z TAF with uncertainty in the arrival time of the gusty NW winds. There is a 20% chance of high MVFR/low VFR cigs through this evening, especially if a shower affects the airport. Gusty northwest winds are likely later this morning through late this evening, with areas of turbulence likely.

MARINE. 25/1026 AM.

***Very dangerous wind and sea conditions across the entire coastal waters through early Tuesday*** Widespread Gale force winds will affect the entire coastal waters thru Tue. There is a 20-30% chance that winds will drop below Gale force in some areas during the morning hours Tue, instead of the afternoon as currently forecast.

There is a 30% percent chance that wind gusts could reach STORM WARNING levels of 50 knots in some areas through this evening anywhere in the coastal waters, even near the coast.

Seas will become extremely dangerous due to their size and steepness. Seas will peak at 15-20 ft across the outer waters and the inner waters north of Pt. Sal today and tonight and at 10-16 ft across the inner waters south of Pt. Conception, including the Santa Barbara Channel. Wave periods will generally be from 12 to 8 seconds. This will be a particularly dangerous episode of winds and seas across the coastal waters. Seas will begin decreasing Tuesday before rising again Wednesday.

Winds will diminish Tue afternoon, and should drop below SCA levels briefly. However, winds will shift to the south and increase significantly Tue night as the next system approaches. Gales appear likely north of Pt Conception, and there is a 50% chance of gale force winds for the western Santa Barbara Channel. The strongest winds will slowly shifting south and weakening through the rest of the week. SCA level SE winds are likely in the Santa Barbara Channel Wed afternoon thru Thu night, and there is a 50% chance of SCA level SE winds across the southern inner waters.

BEACHES. 25/553 AM.

Surf will peak at 14 to 18 feet with local sets to 20 feet on the Central Coast today and tonight. On west facing beaches south of Point Conception, surf will peak at 8 to 12 feet with local sets to 14 feet Today through early Tuesday. Surf will slowly subside on Tuesday before increasing again Wednesday.

There may be minor coastal flooding today through Tuesday morning, especially within a few hours of the times of high tide. There will be strong and dangerous rip currents on all area beaches through Tuesday. The surf will likely cause some beach erosion.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PST Tuesday for zones 34-35. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 10 PM PST this evening for zones 34>37-39>41-44>46-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX). Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 10 PM PST this evening for zone 38. (See LAXWSWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 6 PM PST Tuesday for zones 39>41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX). Freeze Watch in effect from late tonight through Tuesday morning for zones 44-45-88. (See LAXNPWLOX). Winter Storm Warning in effect until 10 PM PST this evening for zones 51>54. (See LAXWSWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect until 10 PM PST this evening for zones 59-549-550. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for zone 87. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ . Gale Warning in effect until 3 PM PST Tuesday for zones 645-650-655-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (WED-SUN).

Moderate to heavy rainfall and mountain snow is likely Wednesday through Friday. Rainfall intensities could result in debris flow issues for the recent burn areas. Gusty southerly winds could result in downed limbs, trees and power lines.



PUBLIC . Kaplan/Kittell AVIATION . Phillips/DB MARINE . DB/Phillips BEACHES . DB SYNOPSIS . RK

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46268 24 mi66 min 53°F 58°F5 ft
46025 - Santa Monica Basin - 33NM West Southwest of Santa Monica, CA 27 mi36 min W 27 G 35 50°F 57°F1008.5 hPa40°F
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 28 mi40 min 58°F10 ft
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 28 mi48 min W 23 G 26 52°F 58°F1007.6 hPa
46251 40 mi40 min 57°F8 ft
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 41 mi90 min WSW 12 G 18 50°F 1009.5 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 45 mi36 min WNW 19 G 27 50°F 57°F1010 hPa41°F
PXAC1 47 mi54 min WNW 14 G 27
BAXC1 48 mi54 min W 27 G 33
OHBC1 - 9410660 - Los Angeles, CA 49 mi48 min 59°F1007.9 hPa
PFDC1 49 mi60 min WSW 21 G 29
PSXC1 49 mi48 min W 24 G 30

Wind History for Santa Monica, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Camarillo, Camarillo Airport, CA6 mi71 minW 19 G 2810.00 miFair and Breezy56°F34°F44%1008.8 hPa
Point Mugu, Naval Air Warfare Center, CA7 mi74 minW 23 G 3310.00 miMostly Cloudy and Windy53°F36°F52%1009 hPa
Oxnard, Oxnard Airport, CA11 mi75 minW 24 G 3310.00 miMostly Cloudy and Windy53°F36°F52%1008.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCMA

Wind History from CMA (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW3N8
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4E5N4NE3CalmCalmE4NE4CalmNE4NE3NE7NW3CalmNE5NE3NE4W3CalmSW36SW10
2 days agoSW9SW14SW12W9W11SW7W11W6NW8W6CalmCalmE4E3E4E3NE3CalmE3CalmCalmCalm3S3

Tide / Current Tables for Mugu Lagoon (ocean pier), California
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Mugu Lagoon (ocean pier)
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:27 AM PST     2.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:31 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:39 AM PST     5.41 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:57 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 02:14 PM PST     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:31 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:20 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:43 PM PST     3.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.42.42.83.44.14.85.35.454.23.11.90.7-0.1-0.4-0.30.31.22.12.93.33.43.22.8

Tide / Current Tables for Port Hueneme, California
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Port Hueneme
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:29 AM PST     2.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:32 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:46 AM PST     5.54 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:58 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 02:16 PM PST     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:31 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:20 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:50 PM PST     3.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.52.83.44.24.95.45.55.24.43.320.8-0-0.4-0.30.31.122.83.33.53.32.9

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.