Friday, January24, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Casa Conejo, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 5:19PM Friday January 24, 2020 10:08 AM PST (18:08 UTC) Moonrise 8:01AMMoonset 6:16PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 834 Am Pst Fri Jan 24 2020
Today..W winds 10 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 12 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 13 seconds, building to 6 to 8 ft at 13 seconds after midnight.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 6 to 8 ft at 16 seconds.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sun..Western portion, nw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Eastern portion, winds variable 10 kt or less becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 14 seconds, building to 7 to 9 ft dominant period 16 seconds in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sun night..Western portion, nw winds 20 to 25 kt becoming 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Eastern portion, W winds 10 to 15 kt becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft.
Mon through Tue..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 7 to 9 ft.
PZZ600 834 Am Pst Fri Jan 24 2020
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 16z or 8 am pst, a 1023 mb surface high was centered around 500 nm southwest of point conception, while a weak inverted trough was over the southern california bight. Northwest flow will increase across the northern and outer waters today with seas building. Widespread gusty winds and hazardous seas are possible early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Casa Conejo, CA
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location: 34.15, -119     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 241754 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 954 AM PST Fri Jan 24 2020

SYNOPSIS. 24/807 AM.

High pressure will keep the area dry through Saturday, with above normal temperatures expected. A very weak cold front will bring clouds and a slight chance of rain for mainly northern areas Sunday, along with some cooling. Dry and breezy conditions are expected Monday through Thursday.

SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN). 24/952 AM.

West/east gradients trending onshore today but north/south gradients are stronger resulting in gusty winds across western SB/SLO Counties today and tonight. Strongest will be in and around the western Santa Ynez Range and a Wind Advisory was just posted for this area until 3am tonight. It's possible advisory level winds will continue into the morning hours so the ending time may need extending. Gusty winds also expected in the I5 corridor but likely below advisory levels.

Otherwise, another warm winter day in most areas with temps about the same as yesterday or perhaps a degree or two cooler. Exceptions to the warm up include the interior portion of SLO County where cool tule fog moisture from the Central Valley continues to funnel through the Temblor range creating some low visibilities with temps mostly in the 50s and 60s.

***From Previous Discussion***

A positively tilted upper ridge will linger across the region on Saturday. The WRF hints that some low clouds may try to form late tonight/Sat morning across southern L.A. County, but that it far from a sure thing. Low level gradients between KLAX and KDAG will turn a bit more offshore by Sat morning, so there could be some gusty NE winds in the mtns and valleys of L.A and VTU Counties, but well below advisory levels. Max temps could edge upward a bit on Sat, but the models all show more in the way of thick upper level cloudiness which could knock a few degrees off max temp potential.

The ridge across the region will shift to the east Sat night and Sunday as a weak trough moves into the West Coast. The WRF shows a more organized stratus field developing Sat night, with stratus likely pushing into at least most coastal areas south of Point Conception, and possibly getting into the valleys late Sat night and Sun morning. Otherwise, mid and high level clouds associated with the tail end of a weakening frontal system will move into areas north of Pt Conception Sat night and Sun morning. It really looks as though the only change of light rain from this system will be across SLO and possibly northern SBA Counties Sun morning into early Sun afternoon.

Behind the frontal system, sharpening N-S gradients, subsidence, cold air advection and decent northwest flow aloft should bring some gusty northwest to north winds to the region late Sun into Sun night, likely reaching advisory levels in some areas, particularly in the mtns, and across southern SBA County.

Skies should become partly cloudy in most areas late Sunday afternoon and Sun night, but moist northwest to north flow could allow clouds and possibly a few showers to linger on northern slopes of the mtns thru Sun night. It will be much cooler across the region on Sunday.

LONG TERM (MON-THU). 24/410 AM.

A ridge will build into the region on Monday, then it will briefly flatten Tue as a trough passes by to the north. Following that, strong upper level ridging will build into the West Coast for Wed and Thu. Dry weather is expected through the period. Strong northwest to north flow is expected for much of the week, with advisory level winds (at least) likely at times through the I-5 Corridor and across southern SBA County. There will be some warming in most areas on Mon, with little change on Tue, then significant warming is likely Wed and Thu.

AVIATION. 24/1209Z.

At 11Z, there was no marine layer at KLAX.

VFR conditions are generally expected through the period. There is a chance of LIFR conditions at terminals north of Point Conception through 17Z. There is a chance of LIFR to IFR conditions after 06Z for Los Angeles County coastal terminals. There is a chance of moderate wind shear and turbulence after 00Z.

KLAX . VFR conditions are expected through 08Z, then there is a 40 percent chance of LIFR to IFR conditions after 08Z. There is a 30 percent chance of moderate wind shear and turbulence between 03Z and 07Z.

KBUR . VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a 40 percent chance of moderate wind shear and turbulence between 00Z and 08Z.

MARINE. 24/835 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in the current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level northwest winds have developed and are likely to remain through tonight, especially for the southern portion near Point Conception. Hazardous seas will likely begin to build to 10 feet by this evening. Conditions will remain at SCA levels in terms of both winds and seas through the forecast period. There is a 50 percent chance of gale force winds Monday and Tuesday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate-to-high confidence in the current forecast. There is a 50% chance that marginal SCA level winds could develop this afternoon and evening, but SCA level seas will be very likely by late this evening. A brief break in SCA level winds and seas could develop late Saturday night through Sunday morning, but there is a 70 percent chance of SCA conditions Sunday afternoon through Tuesday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate-to-high confidence in the current forecast. There is a 50 percent chance of SCA level winds this evening across the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel. There is a 70 percent chance of SCA level west to northwest winds and SCA level seas in excess of 7 feet Sunday afternoon through Tuesday, mainly across western portions.

BEACHES. 24/401 AM.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY has been issued for all beaches between Saturday and Sunday morning. Surf and swell will increase throughout today along the Central Coast, then build into the southern California tonight. While there is a period where surf and swell could drop off between Sunday morning and Sunday night, there is a 40 percent chance that the advisory could be extended into Tuesday. Larger surf is possible between late Sunday night through Tuesday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . High Surf Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Sunday for zones 34-35. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for zones 39-52. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect from 6 AM Saturday to noon PST Sunday for zone 39. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect from 10 PM this evening to noon PST Sunday for zones 40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ . Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST Saturday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SUN-THU).

There is the possibility of gusty north winds on Monday through at least Wednesday, especially through the Santa Ynez Range and the Interstate 5 Corridor.



PUBLIC . MW/DB AVIATION . Hall MARINE . Hall/Stewart BEACHES . Hall SYNOPSIS . JLL

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46025 - Santa Monica Basin - 33NM West Southwest of Santa Monica, CA 27 mi39 min N 3.9 G 5.8 61°F 60°F1017.2 hPa56°F
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 28 mi43 min 61°F4 ft
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 28 mi57 min SSE 1 G 1.9 58°F 59°F1017.4 hPa
46251 40 mi39 min 59°F4 ft
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 41 mi93 min 59°F 1016.7 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 46 mi39 min E 1.9 G 3.9 61°F 59°F1017.3 hPa60°F
PXAC1 47 mi57 min ESE 1 G 1.9
BAXC1 48 mi51 min Calm G 1.9
OHBC1 - 9410660 - Los Angeles, CA 49 mi57 min 61°F1017.4 hPa
PFDC1 49 mi51 min ENE 1 G 1.9
PSXC1 49 mi51 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9

Wind History for Santa Monica, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Camarillo, Camarillo Airport, CA6 mi74 minN 010.00 miFair55°F43°F64%1017.7 hPa
Point Mugu, Naval Air Warfare Center, CA7 mi77 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F44°F66%1015.9 hPa
Oxnard, Oxnard Airport, CA11 mi78 minN 010.00 miFair60°F46°F60%1016.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCMA

Wind History from CMA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3W8W7W9W8S3W5SE4CalmNE4CalmCalmCalmN3N3NW3W3E5CalmNW5CalmSE3Calm--
1 day agoE3SW85S63S4S4S3CalmCalmCalmS3CalmE5E4W6E3NW3S5NE3NE5CalmNW7Calm
2 days agoW4W4W11SW7W11W11W8W4S3NE3E3CalmE4E4E5W3CalmCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmNE7Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Mugu Lagoon (ocean pier), California
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Mugu Lagoon (ocean pier)
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:24 AM PST     1.98 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:58 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:00 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:26 AM PST     6.04 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:44 PM PST     New Moon
Fri -- 03:46 PM PST     -0.98 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:17 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:18 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:08 PM PST     3.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.92.322.12.63.54.55.465.95.34.22.71.2-0-0.8-1-0.50.41.62.73.53.83.7

Tide / Current Tables for Port Hueneme, California
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Port Hueneme
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:26 AM PST     2.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:58 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:01 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:33 AM PST     6.19 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:44 PM PST     New Moon
Fri -- 03:48 PM PST     -1.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:17 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:18 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:15 PM PST     3.88 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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32.42.12.12.63.54.55.56.16.15.54.42.91.30-0.8-1-0.60.41.52.73.53.93.8

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.