Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Casa Conejo, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...13/759 AM.

***UPDATE***

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate a deep marine layer with clouds well into the coastal slopes and interior valleys with scattered high clouds otherwise. Current sounding data indicate marine inversion around 3000 feet in depth. Some locally gusty southwesterly winds, gusting 30-40 MPH, are observed across interior sections.

Forecast-wise for the immediate short term, no significant issues are expected. Given the depth of the inversion and the strength of the onshore pressure gradients, clearing will likely be on the slow side. There is a chance for some reverse clearing behavior this afternoon, but at this time, will go with the current forecast of clearing skies to near the coast. As for temperatures, will expect most areas to be hovering near seasonal norms this afternoon. With the strong onshore pressure gradients, southwesterly winds, gusting 25-45 MPH, will be common across the mountains and deserts. However, any advisory-level winds are expected to remain rather localized.

Overall, current forecast has good handle on the immediate short term. So, no significant updates are expected.

***From Previous Discussion***

May Gray is here and the marine layer is currently 3000 to 4000 feet deep with low clouds overspread across most coasts and valleys. Light drizzle will be possible through this morning, with the greatest chances along the Central Coast. Patchy high clouds may occasionally disturb the marine layer resulting in brief scattered skies. Onshore surface pressure gradients will not be as strong as yesterday, so while clearing will be slow, sunnies skies are likely across the area by early afternoon. However reverse clearing will be possible, where clouds at the beaches clear out before the valleys and foothills. Northwest flow and cold air advection associated with weak troughing will yield much cooler temperatures across the interior (low 80s common). The decrease in temperature contrast between the coast and the interior will result in weaker onshore flow and thus increased sunshine and warmer temperatures at the beaches and coastal valleys today. Highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s will be common.

Thursday through Friday, 500 mb heights will trend upwards gradually and moderate- to- strong onshore surface pressure gradients will persist. Overngiht through morning marine layer clouds will continue to be the main weather feature. Temperatures will increase slightly on Thursday (due to marginally weaker onshore flow), and change little on Friday. Expect highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s to be common late this week across the beaches and coastal valleys, with 80s across the interior deserts/valleys.

Breezy northwest to southwest winds are expected during the afternoons and evenings. There is a chance of reaching advisory levels for areas prone to northwest winds (southwest Santa Barbara County & I-5 corridor in the mountains) this evening and again as early as Friday afternoon.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...13/340 AM.

Generally benign weather is expected through the weekend, however there is some uncertainty with regards to the exact synoptic pattern. A passing trough has the chance to bring gusty winds and cooler than normal temperatures to the area over the weekend.
Very warm conditions will become possible early next week, particularly for the interior. At this point, ensemble surface pressure gradients indicate that offshore flow will likely not be strong enough to completely deter marine layer clouds. Thus temperatures at the beaches, and perhaps some inland coastal areas, may stay in the 60s. Monday and Tuesday, there is a chance to see a 30+ degree difference between daytime highs at the beaches compared to the deserts, rather like what was observed the past couple days.

AVIATION
13/1749Z.

At 1719Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3500 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 5000 ft with a temperature of 16 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 2 hours and flight minimums off by one category.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival and clearing times of CIGs may be off +/- 2 hours. Expecting return of MVFR CIGs 010-015 around 14/08Z with periods of IFR BKN008 possible.
No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. No wind issues expected.

MARINE
13/754 AM.

For the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and seas developing Wednesday and lasting through at least Thursday Night, except for a a likely brief break Wednesday 9am to 2pm.
Moderate risk of Gale Force winds as early as Friday and peaking over the weekend, with large 10-15 feet steep seas.

SCY conditions likely for the nearshore Central Coast waters each afternoon and evening through Thursday, with stronger winds and building seas Friday through the weekend.

Winds will stay under SCY for all other waters through at least Thursday, with a moderate risk of SCY conditions by the weekend.

Over the weekend...The combination of high winds and seas could result in hazardous surfing conditions and minor coastal flooding especially across more unprotected west-facing beaches such as along the Ventura coastline. Stay tuned for future updates.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Thursday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Thursday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Thursday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).