Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Casa Conejo, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...27/1228 PM.

Troughing over CA well into next week will mean a fairly stable forecast between now and then. Onshore flow at the surface and deepening of the marine layer will keep low stratus/fog along the coasts and coastal valleys during the evenings and mornings/early afternoons.

WIND ADVISORIES remain in effect through early Sunday morning in the Antelope Valley and western Antelope Valley Foothills, and beginning at 5 PM PDT across the SW Santa Barbara Coast and the western Santa Ynez mountain range. Sustained winds will range 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to around 50 mph. Winds have been late to realize across the Antelope Valley, with gusts largely below Advisory threshold still early this morning. Offshore sundowner winds in the Santa Barbara are expected to be slightly stronger this evening through early Sunday than the previous night as the pressure gradient peaks.

Another low will drop into northern CA on Monday and continue rotating southward before lifting northeastward into Nevada Tuesday. This will keep below normal temperatures in the forecast through late next week. Expect daytime highs to remain mostly stable in the 70s and low 80s in the valleys, fairly mild winds with gusts below 15 to 20 mph outside of the Antelope Valley, and no precipitation forecast with the exception of the potential for some light drizzle to fall out of the low stratus deck.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...27/1224 PM.

After several days of stable temperatures, ensembles indicate a change in the upper-level pattern by Friday/Saturday of next week when high pressure takes control of our weather pattern. This marks a transition to a gradual warming trend beginning Thursday and near-normal to slightly above normal temperatures during the holiday weekend. There is variation amongst ensembles as to the strength of high pressure, which results in some uncertainty with regard to how warm our valleys will get during the holiday. The National Blend of Models indicates the most widespread high temperatures on July 4th being the upper 70s and 80s with fewer valley areas warming into the 90s.

AVIATION
27/1026Z.

At 10Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2500 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 5000 feet with a temperature of 18 Celsius.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD KWJF with abnormally strong and persistent onshore winds. Possible UDDF near mountains.

High confidence in ceilings at all other airports. Moderate confidence in timing (+/- 3 hours) and flight categories (+/- 1 category.

KLAX...High confidence in ceilings and flight categories. Moderate confidence in timing (+/- 3 hours). High confidence in any east wind component staying under 8 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in ceilings and flight categories. Moderate confidence in timing (+/- 3 hours).

MARINE
27/812 AM.

High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds for the outer waters from the Central Coast through San Nicolas Island through Sunday or Monday, with some improvement after. Local Gale force wind gusts will be possible during the late afternoon/early evening hours through Sunday. The nearshore waters will likely see SCA winds each afternoon and evening.

High confidence in SCA winds over the western Santa Barbara Channel late this afternoon and evening, with lowering chances to follow. The rest of the waters will likely stay under SCA, except for localized winds approaching 25 knots in the afternoon and evening hours today.

All waters will see short-period choppy seas into early next week, with today likely being the worst. Seas across the outer waters will near SCA levels Sunday into Monday evening.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 AM PDT Sunday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory remains in effect until 5 AM PDT Sunday for zones 381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).