Thursday, September19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Channel Islands Beach, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 6:59PM Thursday September 19, 2019 11:46 AM PDT (18:46 UTC) Moonrise 10:24PMMoonset 11:39AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 847 Am Pdt Thu Sep 19 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 3 pm pdt this afternoon through late tonight...
Today..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 25 kt and strongest western portion. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft dominant period 7 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tonight..Western portion, nw winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, becoming N to nw 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Eastern portion, W winds 10 to 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt or less after midnight. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 8 seconds.
Fri..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 8 seconds.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Sat..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft. Patchy fog.
PZZ600 847 Am Pdt Thu Sep 19 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 15z, or 8 am pdt, a 1029 mb surface high was centered about 1000 nm nw of san francisco, and a 1003 mb low was located near las vegas. High pressure will move eastward with moderate nw winds at times across the outer waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Channel Islands Beach CDP, CA
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location: 34.15, -119.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 191725 aaa
afdlox
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
1025 am pdt Thu sep 19 2019

Synopsis 19 846 am.

An upper level trough passed through the area on Thursday. Gusty
north to northeast winds will accompany the warmer and drier air
in some areas. This warming pattern will continue through Monday
- when the next upper level low approaches.

Short term (tdy-sat) 19 954 am.

Forecast looking on track through the weekend and probably no
major changes coming today. Northerly flow today and this evening
with sundowners in SRN sb county will shift to northeast Fri and
continue through the weekend, though turning onshore Sunday
afternoon. One slight change noted in the models today was the
continued offshore trends into Sunday morning so rather than
Saturday being the warmest day most areas (except possibly the
coast) will be warmer Sunday with valley highs near 100 and inland
coastal areas in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Low clouds tonight
confined to coastal la county and possibly some patchy stratus in
the santa maria lompoc santa ynez areas.

Advisory level wind gusts likely in the gaviota refugio area this
evening as the sundowners kick in but probably just 15-25
elsewhere. Will be a borderline advisory level situation due to
the limited area involved but will see how things are shaping up
this afternoon.

Long term (sun-wed) 19 257 am.

For the extended, the models have finally come into good synoptic
agreement through the period. So, confidence in the extended
forecast is noticeably higher than the previous couple of days.

Basically, the extended period will be dominated by a inside
slider pattern. Upper level trough will develop over the pacific
northwest on Sunday. This trough will develop into an upper level
low on Monday while moving south across nevada until finally
spinning over western arizona on Tuesday Wednesday. The 00z gfs
and ECMWF are nearly identical in the track of this feature,
lending to better forecast confidence.

On Sunday, expect conditions very similar to Saturday. On Monday,
as the upper low moves across nevada, onshore gradients will
strengthen, bringing rather widespread stratus fog and cooler
temperatures. For Tuesday and Wednesday, the location of the upper
level low over western arizona will keep any moisture (and
potential precipitation) out of our area. However, the upper level
pattern on Tuesday and Wednesday looks really supportive of a
moderate santa ana wind event. However, the offshore surface
gradients on Tuesday and Wednesday are not anywhere near that
impressive currently. So, a santa ana wind event is not a given at
this time for Tuesday Wednesday, but the situation will need to
monitored closely through the weekend. Despite that uncertainty,
given the offshore gradients and higher thicknesses h5 heights,
pretty good confidence in warmer temperatures and very limited
stratus fog for the Tuesday Wednesday time frame.

Aviation 19 1724z.

At 1715z at lax, there was a deep moist layer up to 3500 ft with
no significant inversion.

N of point sal... High confidence in 18z tafs withVFR conditions
and only a 10% chance for patchy ifr fog from 10-16z.

S of point sal... Moderate confidence in 18z tafs. Sct clouds
through 21z for coastal terminals. Central coast sites after 08z
ifr lifr CIGS and dense fog possible, about a 60% chance. La coast
a 60-70% chance of MVFR CIGS after 10z. RemainingVFR across
valley TAF sites.

Klax... Moderate confidence in 18z taf. Patchy MVFR CIGS until 19z,
then a 70% chance of MVFR CIGS returning 10-17z. Easterly winds
not to exceed 7 knots Friday morning.

Kbur... High confidence in 18z taf. Sct clouds through 21z,
otherwiseVFR conditions continuing through Friday morning.

Marine 19 937 am.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast.

For the outer waters, small craft advisory (sca) level winds are
likely to persist through early Friday morning. Winds will
subside some on Friday, with a 40% chance of SCA gusts continuing
through Friday evening. There is a 60% chance for SCA gusts
returning for Sunday and Monday.

Across the inner waters north of pt sal, SCA wind gusts are
expected this afternoon and evening. Weaker winds are expected
Friday and through the weekend.

Across the santa barbara channel, SCA level winds are expected
across western portions of the channel this afternoon through
late tonight. There is a 40% chance for SCA conditions across the
western santa barbara channel both Friday and Saturday afternoons,
with stronger SCA level gusts expected on Monday. Otherwise, the
remainder of the southern inner waters should remain below sca
conditions through Monday.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect from 3 pm this afternoon to 9
pm pdt this evening for zone 645. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect from 3 pm this afternoon to 3
am pdt Friday for zone 650. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect until 3 am pdt Friday for
zones 670-673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (sat-wed)
On Tuesday and Wednesday, there is a chance of a santa ana wind
event as well as elevated fire weather conditions.

Public... Mw thompson
aviation... Boldt
marine... Boldt
synopsis... Tf
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46025 - Santa Monica Basin - 33NM West Southwest of Santa Monica, CA 29 mi26 min NNW 5.8 G 7.8 68°F 72°F1012.5 hPa66°F
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 29 mi70 min S 5.1 G 6 66°F 1012.8 hPa
46251 31 mi46 min 66°F4 ft
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 32 mi26 min NW 3.9 G 5.8 67°F 67°F1013 hPa64°F
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 39 mi20 min 71°F3 ft
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 41 mi46 min SSW 6 G 7 69°F 66°F1012.6 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oxnard, Oxnard Airport, CA5 mi1.9 hrsN 010.00 miFair72°F57°F61%1012.3 hPa
Point Mugu, Naval Air Warfare Center, CA8 mi2.8 hrsN 010.00 miA Few Clouds69°F57°F68%1012.4 hPa
Camarillo, Camarillo Airport, CA10 mi1.9 hrsSW 410.00 miFair72°F57°F61%1013.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOXR

Wind History from OXR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW8SW7SW9W9W9W8SW4CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmE3CalmE4NE3CalmE3NE6NE3CalmW8
1 day agoSW9SW7W11W11W11W12W11W8CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmNE3E3NE3NE3NE3CalmE3CalmS56
2 days ago------------------W6CalmE4CalmE4NE4NE3E3NE4NE3NE4NE3CalmSE4W8

Tide / Current Tables for Port Hueneme, California
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Port Hueneme
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Thu -- 12:51 AM PDT     3.64 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:14 AM PDT     2.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:42 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:38 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:42 PM PDT     4.83 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:57 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:56 PM PDT     1.46 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:23 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.53.63.53.12.72.42.22.32.63.23.84.44.74.84.643.32.621.61.51.61.92.4

Tide / Current Tables for Ventura, California
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Ventura
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Thu -- 12:50 AM PDT     3.64 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:17 AM PDT     2.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:42 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:38 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:41 PM PDT     4.83 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:58 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:59 PM PDT     1.46 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:24 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.53.63.53.12.72.42.22.22.63.13.84.44.74.84.643.32.621.61.51.61.92.4

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.