Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Channel Islands Beach, CA

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...18/754 PM.

***UPDATE***

A deep and cool moist layer remains over the region this evening.
Healthy onshore flow is keeping the clouds over most areas with no obvious sign yet of clearing out. The low pressure system that fueled the cloudy and cool close to the workweek is now centered over north Arizona, and all projections show it sliding further to the east tonight with high pressure aloft pushing into California. This evolution is still favorable to drastically weaken the onshore flow at the same time, likely resulting in a brief burst (15-25 mph) of northeast winds over the mountains Saturday morning. All of this adds up to the logical conclusion of decreasing cloud overnight. The marine layer however often defies logic, especially in a situation like this with rapid synoptic changes. So if there was ever a textbook low confidence forecast, it would be the cloud forecast for the next 18 hours.
With all that said however, confidence is high for risen temperatures over the holiday weekend, especially away from the coast.

***From Previous Discussion***

Chamber of commerce weather is expected over the weekend into Monday with plenty of sunshine and temperatures rising to within a few degrees of normal. Low confidence on when or if low clouds and fog will reform but clouds should just be morning feature at most. Gradients are already trending weaker today and expect that to really kick in tonight into early Saturday with a 4-5mb offshore trend, leading to some areas of breezy northeast winds across the LA Mountains and some of the higher valley areas Saturday morning.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...18/158 PM.

Onshore flow begins its return as early as Sunday but especially Monday as the next trough deepens along the West Coast. No precipitation expected locally but temperatures will begin a slow cooling trend that will continue through the week. Low clouds and fog will return to coastal areas by Monday if not before and eventually the valleys as cooling aloft deepens the marine inversion. The increasing onshore flow will create increasing west to southwest winds especially in the Antelope Valley. But otherwise a fairly low impact period of weather with another long stretch of below normal temperatures. Longer range models indicate a continued cool pattern through next week and even into the last week of April.

AVIATION
19/0615Z.

At 0505Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 4200 ft deep. The top of the weak inversion was 6600 feet with a temperature of 6 deg C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in the rest of the TAFs. There is a 25 percent chc that MVFR cigs will occur 11Z-16Z at sites with no low clouds fcst. Low clouds at KSMX and KSBP may last until 18Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF through 16Z then good confidence. There is a 25 percent chc of BKN025 cigs 11Z-16Z. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF through 16Z then good confidence. There is a 25 percent chc of BKN020 cigs 11Z-16Z.

MARINE
18/744 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 30% chance of localized Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level northwest wind gusts over the Outer Waters through this evening. Saturday through Monday morning, there is a 20-30% chance for SCA level wind gusts around Point Conception and the Channel Islands in the afternoon and evening hours. Elsewhere, winds and seas are expected to remain sub advisory through Monday morning. Then, Monday afternoon through Tuesday night, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds, with a 40-50% chance of continued SCA winds Wednesday into Wednesday night.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Saturday through Monday morning, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.
Starting Monday there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours, with the best chances Tuesday and Wednesday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Tuesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels across most areas. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 30-50% of SCA level wind gusts on Saturday in the afternoon through evening hours.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.