Wednesday, May27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Leland, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 8:16PM Wednesday May 27, 2020 8:13 AM EDT (12:13 UTC) Moonrise 9:16AMMoonset 11:49PM Illumination 28% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 642 Am Edt Wed May 27 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Today..E winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming se 20 to 25 kt late this morning and afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms early this morning, then showers with a slight chance of tstms late this morning and afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late this morning.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A slight chance of tstms. Showers.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers likely. A slight chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms.
Sun..NW winds 10 kt, becoming ne. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms likely in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms through the night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 642 Am Edt Wed May 27 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Low pressure currently developing off to the south will move north across the carolinas today, bringing moderate to heavy rain and increasing winds and waves. Humid south winds will continue until this weekend before a cold front passage.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Leland, NC
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location: 34.18, -77.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 271011 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 610 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure currently developing off to the south will move north across the Carolinas today, bringing moderate to heavy rain and increasing winds to the area. Humid south winds will continue until this weekend before a cold front passage.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/. Forecast shaping up as expected this morning, with low pressure developing off to the S and a coastal trough just offshore attm. The low slides northward this morning, bringing with it increasing chances for rain as tropical moisture moves into the area. A small potential remains for a damaging wind gust or tornado especially over SE areas as the coastal trough slides into the area accompanied by increasing low-level shear and helicity values. The other main threat today is the potential for localized flooding due to the strong moisture transport and forcing over the area. After collaboration with neighboring offices and most guidance showing under two inches of rain, held off on issuing a Flash Flood Watch. The rain spreads N through the day, with a bit of a drying trend into tonight as the sfc low pushes northward, but a chance of rain continues however due to the moisture-laden southerly flow in place. Similar conditions into Thu with moist flow still over the area and sfc high pressure offshore. Also maintained mention of a slight chance of thunder.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Forecast soundings still show copious/deep layer moisture through the period. Initially however forcing looks quite weak but by Friday the weakening upper trough to our west will draw closer lending us some PVA and weak height falls. Thursday night still seems to warrant chance POPs followed by a ramp up to likely Friday into Friday night. Wind fields will remain light as they veer from southerly through a deep layer to westerly and lapse rates remain weak. So, there is no severe weather threat though the slow movement of storms could bring brief periods of heavy rain. Highs look fairly seasonable while cloud cover elevates both nighttime periods above climatology.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Very weak cyclonic curvature in the mid levels on Saturday while surface front approaches. The disturbance aloft that passes overhead is only the front-runner of what will end up being a fairly deep trough (by late May standards) that will be carving its way into the eastern U.S. Still, given that the front and ascent arrive not long after peak heating scattered (if not widespread) thunderstorms appear likely. The stronger height falls get underway on Sunday but the deep moisture will have already moved offshore. Sunday night into Monday will feature some healthy cold advection as deep cutoff low forms off the MidAtlantic/New England coast.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. IFR ceilings dominate the CWA this morning. Tropical low pressure will move north today, with bands of moderate to heavy rain training onshore. Visibilities will occasionally drop to IFR in the heavy convection. Winds will shift to the southeast as the low approaches, with gusts to 25 mph. Slowly improving conditions by late afternoon.

Extended Outlook . Unsettled weather continues Thursday through Sunday with periods of brief MVFR/IFR conditions expected in convective showers and t-storms. Winds will be locally higher in and near TSTMs.

MARINE. Deteriorating marine conditions today as low pressure approaches from the S and strong sfc high pressure remains well offshore. The Small Craft Advisory is now in effect over all waters with 20-25 kt winds gusting to 30 kt expected later this morning. Also expect moderate to heavy rain and isolated waterspouts. Seas up to 7-9 ft. The winds weaken a bit late in the day into tonight as the low pushes off to the N, but high seas will remain so extended the headlines. S flow of 10-20 kt for Thu with seas up to 5 ft.

A rather normal set of conditions Thursday night through Saturday as west Atlantic high pressure is the dominant weather-maker. Southwesterly will be the favored wind direction while 10-15 kts the average expected wind speed. Spectral wave bulletins are showing a 6 second wind wave as well as an 8 second easterly swell component. A cold front pushes through later Saturday beginning a considerable veer in wind direction with NE flow expected by Sunday, possibly with increasing wave heights and steepening wave faces.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . High Rip Current Risk through this evening for SCZ054-056. NC . High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ107. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ110. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ254- 256. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ250-252.

SYNOPSIS . MAS NEAR TERM . MAS SHORT TERM . mbB LONG TERM . mbB AVIATION . 43 MARINE . MAS/MBB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WLON7 3 mi56 min 71°F 71°F1017.6 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 9 mi56 min NE 9.9 G 12 74°F 73°F1017.2 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 13 mi66 min E 12 G 16 73°F 72°F1017.5 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 13 mi34 min 72°F5 ft
41108 32 mi44 min 73°F6 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 34 mi66 min ESE 18 G 23 76°F 75°F1018.2 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 37 mi66 min E 18 G 23 74°F 74°F1016.4 hPa
41119 37 mi54 min 74°F4 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC7 mi81 minNE 810.00 miOvercast70°F69°F97%1018.1 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC18 mi79 minE 61.25 miRain73°F70°F95%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KILM

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE9NE11NE8NE7NE7NE5NE8N7NE7NE8E10NE7NE6NE6NE7E3NE6NE6NE8NE9NE9NE9NE8NE7
1 day agoNE9NE6NE54N4E7SE8E9E9E7E8E6E5E7E9E7E5E9E4E6NE8NE8NE10NE8
2 days agoNW33CalmSE9SE12E13SE12SE11
G17
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Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:51 AM EDT     4.85 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:46 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:15 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:38 PM EDT     3.83 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:36 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.64.84.64.13.32.41.610.50.30.92.13.23.83.83.632.21.30.70.30.30.92.3

Tide / Current Tables for Masonboro Inlet, North Carolina
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Masonboro Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:18 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:57 AM EDT     3.27 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:20 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.23.83.12.21.30.70.40.51.11.92.73.13.33.12.61.91.20.60.30.41233.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.