Friday, November27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Leland, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 5:04PM Friday November 27, 2020 11:50 PM EST (04:50 UTC) Moonrise 3:42PMMoonset 4:16AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 934 Pm Est Fri Nov 27 2020
Overnight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Mon..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tue..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 934 Pm Est Fri Nov 27 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will build in briefly from the west through Saturday night before a significant storm system affects the area Sunday and Monday. High pressure returns to the area from the southwest Tuesday and Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Leland, NC
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location: 34.18, -77.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 272319 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 619 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will maintain quiet weather through Sunday. Intensifying low pressure will approach the area late Sunday into Monday leading to moderate to heavy rain and low potential for severe weather. Colder and drier air will follow for much of next week.

UPDATE. All models have initialized very poorly with current dewpoints observed across the area. A zone of very dry air across eastern South Carolina where 21z dewpoints were in the upper 30s and lower 40s should gradually moisten up overnight due to the shallow developing nocturnal boundary layer. Over half of the latest models are developing an area of fog and low ceilings across southeastern NC into northernmost South Carolina late tonight, but this is very much in question due to poor model initialization. I've added a little fog to the forecast after midnight and will monitor trends to see what direction to go with this idea later this evening. No significant changes to temps, wind, or sky cover tonight.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Locally the mid-level pattern will consist of flat/progressive flow at the base of an East Coast 5h trough. Flow aloft will limit moisture return and keep a lone shortwave and surface inflection, passing just south of the area late tonight, rather weak. Cannot rule out some isolated light rain, mainly across southern portions of the forecast area overnight into Saturday morning. Weak nature of the feature and limited moisture will keep coverage limited with any rainfall amounts very low. Surface high then builds in from the northwest and is the main feature through Sat night. Moderate to weak cold advection accompanies the high as it builds in Sat, but temperatures still end up 5 to 8 degrees above climo. Mostly clear skies for much of Sat night coupled with light northerly flow should allow for some decent radiational cooling. Lows will get near climo Sat night, but most areas still end up a couple degrees above.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. High pressure centered over eastern VA on Sunday will keep rain chances low across northern portions of the area. Will see an increase in cloud cover and showers throughout the afternoon as SW flow advects Gulf moisture northeastward in front of a deepening upper-low centered near Texarkana. Shower chances increase from SW to NE as the Gulf moisture continues to increase late Sunday into the evening and surface high pressure slides offshore. The upper-low will trigger the development and strengthening of a surface low pressure system tracking from the Gulf of Mexico, northward into eastern TN and the western Appalachians. SW moisture advection will continue early Sunday evening as shower chances increase quickly. Pockets of heavy rain are possible as the low pressure pushes a surface warm front near the area later Sunday evening.

As the system progresses northward overnight, warm air and dew points in the upper 60s to near 70 will push northward in an advancing warm sector. This could bring the potential for isolated severe weather. A lack of instability will hinder our expectations on widespread severe weather due to a combination of weak lapse rates and timing of the system. Wind shear, mainly speed shear, are sufficient for isolated damaging wind gusts (possibly an isolated tornado), but without both ingredients, potential remains low. Variations in successive model runs could provide additional warm air advection and lead to an increase in available instability, so will continue to mention the developing threat. On the timing of severe weather: the best chance will be just before sunrise as the cold front associated with the quick-moving system pushes through the area Monday morning.

On Monday, will likely see cooler and drier air move into the area behind the cold front after some lingering showers along the coast on Monday morning. Cold air may be delayed until early afternoon due to a secondary upper-low dropping out of southern Ontario, into the northern Appalachians on Monday. Don't be surprised to see cold air advection with a SW wind as cooler air wraps around the base of the plunging trough. Highs on Monday will still reach the upper 60s to near 70 as cold air advection arrives in the early to mid afternoon. Overnight lows drop below normal with most areas falling into the mid and upper 30s, even with a blustery SW/W wind.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Drier and colder air continues to build into the region on Tuesday as high pressure from the SW shifts northeastward towards the Carolinas. Temperatures remain below-average throughout the period with high temperatures on Tuesday being a degree or two below the January average. Potential for a hard freeze on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning as winds relax and the high inches closer. Lows will drop into the upper 20s inland, near 30 along the coast on Wednesday morning and near 30 on Thursday morning. High pressure continues to provide cool and quiet weather through Thursday. Next chance for rainfall will come Friday into early next weekend. Models show the potential for another cold front to approach the area. For now, kept a slight chance on Friday as the upper-low approaches from the Ohio River Valley and a chance of showers on Saturday as the front nears the Carolinas. Good agreement between global models on some form of disturbance existing in the eastern US by late next week.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Cirrus will increase across the eastern Carolinas overnight in advance of wave of low pressure that will pass by to our south Saturday. Of more immediate concern is the potential for low ceilings and visibilities to develop after 06-08z. Latest models initialized quite poorly with dewpoints which were in the upper 30s and lower 40s across eastern South Carolina at 21z. This poor initialization brings low confidence that fog will develop. I've added TEMPO 2 mile vsby and IFR ceilings between 08-12z at LBT and ILM where the highest potential for problems appears to develop, although CRE has some potential as well. Regardless, improving conditions should develop after sunrise Saturday with VFR ceilings and perhaps some virga or light rain moving across South Carolina.

Extended Outlook . Additional MVFR/IFR conditions possible Sunday night into Monday morning due to low ceilings and visibility in rain.

MARINE. Through Saturday . Offshore flow will continue in the wake of the cold front currently moving east across the waters. Weak wave passing south of the waters later tonight into Sat will induce more northerly flow after midnight, although gradient remains weak and speeds will be 10 kt or less. Surface high noses in from the north Sat and Sat night, with north to northeast flow 10 to 15 kt developing later Sat and increasing slightly to a solid 15 kt Sat night as the gradient firms up. Seas will run 2 to 3 ft through Sat night.

Sunday through Wednesday . Weak gradient winds at the start of the period, quickly veer, becoming SE, and increase in intensity to 15- 20 knots by Sunday afternoon. Overnight, strong cold front will approach the Carolinas allowing winds to increase to 20-25 knots out of the SSW and seas to rapidly build from 2-4 feet during the afternoon to 4-7 feet by Monday morning (continuing to build from there). Could see a few gusts to around 30 knots as well with thunderstorms likely to develop over the coastal waters, bringing potential for higher isolated gusts. Cold front will move through the area late Monday into Tuesday and winds remain SW and W around 20-25 knots. Seas peak near 6-9 feet on Monday afternoon as the fetch of W/SW winds continue. Cold air advection could lead to a few isolated gusts up to 34 knots on Monday night or early Tuesday. Winds become offshore by Wednesday night and the gradient weaken to 10-20 knots as high pressure approaches from the SW. Conditions continue to improve on Wednesday as NW winds relax to around 10 knots and seas return to a calm 2-4 feet.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . ILM UPDATE . TRA NEAR TERM . III SHORT TERM . 21 LONG TERM . 21 AVIATION . TRA MARINE . III/21


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WLON7 3 mi51 min 56°F 58°F1016.6 hPa (+0.3)
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 6 mi126 min Calm 57°F 1016 hPa55°F
MBIN7 8 mi51 min NNW 2.9 G 2.9 60°F 1015.4 hPa (+0.0)
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 9 mi51 min NNW 2.9 G 5.1 61°F 66°F1016 hPa (+0.0)
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 13 mi43 min NE 5.8 G 9.7 62°F 67°F1016.4 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 13 mi44 min 67°F2 ft
41108 32 mi51 min 65°F2 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 34 mi43 min N 5.8 G 7.8 67°F 72°F1016.7 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 37 mi43 min N 7.8 G 9.7 57°F 65°F1017.2 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC7 mi58 minN 010.00 miFair57°F54°F90%1016.5 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC18 mi76 minN 010.00 miFair58°F49°F72%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KILM

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmSE3SE4SW4CalmW4SW5SW7W11W8NW10NW10NW5CalmCalmCalmNW5CalmCalm
1 day agoS12S10S5S8S7S4S7S13S4S6SW9SW8W13
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W10SW11W7--S3S4CalmS4CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNE5CalmCalmCalmNE3NE4N3CalmNE3NE4E7E9E7E7E8E6SE7SE3SE4SE7SE8SE7S9S12
G19

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:37 AM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:16 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:33 AM EST     4.37 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:13 PM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:41 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:54 PM EST     4.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60-0.10.61.82.93.74.34.33.82.92.11.40.60.10.31.22.33.23.94.13.82.92

Tide / Current Tables for Masonboro Inlet, North Carolina
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Masonboro Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:15 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:38 AM EST     4.04 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:06 PM EST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:57 PM EST     3.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.91.82.73.53.943.73.12.31.50.80.50.71.42.22.93.53.73.52.92.21.30.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.