Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Leland, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:05PM Monday December 16, 2019 5:12 AM EST (10:12 UTC) Moonrise 9:50PMMoonset 11:00AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 255 Am Est Mon Dec 16 2019
Today..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..S winds 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers with isolated tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers. Isolated tstms in the evening.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming ne 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 255 Am Est Mon Dec 16 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles. High pressure will move farther offshore today and tonight. Higher winds and larger seas will develop tonight and Tuesday ahead of a cold front. This front will move offshore Tuesday night. High pressure will build in Wednesday through Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Leland, NC
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location: 34.18, -77.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 160759 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 259 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will shift off of the Southeast coast moving farther east through Monday. Increasing southerly winds will bring warmer temperatures Monday and Tuesday, followed by increasing rain chances, as another cold front crosses the area late Tuesday. Cold and dry weather will follow through the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. A flat mid and upper level ridge will slide away from the Southeast coast today. Dry conditions aloft coupled with modest warm advection should provide a very nice day across the Carolinas. 850 mb temps rising to +11C to +13C are around the 75th percentile for mid December and should allow temps to rise into the lower 70s inland, with mid-upper 60s near the beaches. (Water temps are in the mid 50s)

Areas of morning fog should quickly burn off after sunrise as moisture is only a couple hundred feet deep. It's worth mentioning the 00z NAM is overly aggressive with moisture advection early this morning and tries to hang onto a low stratus deck much of the day. This causes its high temps to run 4-7 degrees cooler than all other guidance today, and I'm discarding the NAM as an outlier.

Low level moisture finally does deepen late this afternoon into this evening as 950/925 mb winds back to the south and bring in stratocumulus clouds from the Gulf Stream off FL and GA. Forecast soundings show small elevated CAPE (100 J/kg) developing just below the subsidence inversion aloft, and I'm including small (20-30 percent) chances for showers near the coast beginning around midnight. Low-level winds should veer southwesterly again late tonight, pushing any shower activity offshore before daybreak Tuesday. Tonight's forecast lows are 55-60 -- normal for HIGH temps this time of year!

The main upper trough will begin to approach from the west Tuesday. Despite thickening high clouds, enough sun should bleed through the clouds to again push inland temps into the 70s. The deep moisture and best chance of showers or t-storms should reach the I-95 corridor by early afternoon, making it down to the coast by evening. Wind profiles becoming unidirectional and meager surface-based instability should keep the potential for severe weather very low, but I will still mention isolated thunder possible Tuesday afternoon.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Guidance has slowed down just a tad with the frontal system Tuesday evening and therefor pops have been extended a few hours into the early morning hours Wednesday. Any thunder that will accompany the system should be history with the loss of minimal daytime instability. Clearing and cooler for Wednesday into Thursday morning. As for temperatures, lows Wednesday morning trended a bit higher now mainly in the upper 30s with the delay of the system. No changes to highs for Wednesday or Thursday AM.


LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Thursday and Friday should be mostly uneventful as cold high pressure moves across. Some clouds and a sprinkle or two are possible in the usual development of warm air advection coastal trough late Friday into early Saturday. Global guidance continues to struggle with the evolution of s shortwave diving out of the Rockies late in the week and moreso into the weekend. The GFS and ECMWF are seemingly taking turns at closing off the system with a slow progression and much more rainfall while the other scenario is an open wave and a more quick moving system. Prudence calls for maintaining pops basically from late Friday through Sunday while continuing the low confidence disclaimer.

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Shallow ground fog is developing along the coast and should pose aviation concerns at ILM and CRE through 13z. Moisture is very shallow with model virtual soundings showing rapid drying only 200-300 feet above ground level. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected along the coast, with lesser potential for fog inland where a drier atmosphere exists. Visibility should rapidly improve after daybreak with VFR conditions anticipated throughout the day. Low clouds near 3000 feet AGL may develop this evening and persist overnight. Potential for sea fog will also increase tonight, with low probability of impacts at the CRE airport after 00z.

Extended Outlook . VFR to MVFR on Monday. Better chance of MVFR conditions during showers late Monday. VFR Tuesday onward.

MARINE. Surface high pressure centered out near Bermuda will slowly move farther east today and tonight. Light, generally south winds today will actually feature a weak seabreeze this afternoon as air temperature differences from the ocean to inland areas reach 10 degrees. South winds will increase tonight as the gradient tightens up ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. This front will move into the central Carolinas Tuesday afternoon, finally arriving at the beaches Tuesday night. Winds and seas may approach Small Craft Advisory criteria Tuesday.

Probably a small craft advisory for overnight Tuesday into Wednesday based mostly on seas worked up by prefrontal winds. High pressure will move across the waters Wednesday and Thursday as winds shift to more of a northeasterly direction and gradually decrease. Speeds will be 15-20 knots initially dropping to the lower end of a 10-15 knot range later Thursday. The weekend forecast remains one of low confidence as low pressure may form close to the area which would dramatically increase winds and seas but for now a modest northeast flow with significant seas of 2-4 feet will suffice.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . SHK NEAR TERM . TRA SHORT TERM . SHK LONG TERM . SHK AVIATION . TRA MARINE . TRA/SHK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WLON7 3 mi61 min 43°F 53°F1023.2 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 9 mi61 min W 6 G 7 51°F 55°F1022.5 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 13 mi65 min WNW 3.9 G 5.8 54°F 56°F1023.2 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 13 mi33 min 56°F2 ft
41108 32 mi43 min 55°F2 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 34 mi65 min NW 3.9 G 5.8 60°F 65°F1023.1 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 37 mi65 min NW 3.9 G 5.8 51°F 54°F1023.7 hPa
41119 37 mi143 min 54°F2 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC7 mi20 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist41°F39°F93%1023.3 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC18 mi18 minN 010.00 miFair42°F41°F97%1023.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KILM

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSW4W4SW6W6W6W5W8W10W7SW6S6S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW12SW9S5SW9W10W12W14
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2 days agoNE6N4N4N6NE7N8N8NE9NE9NE4N4W8N5NE7NE5NE5NE3NE3CalmCalmW4SW9SW8SW10

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Mon -- 07:00 AM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:59 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 12:13 PM EST     4.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:03 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:52 PM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:49 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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43.83.32.41.50.70.1-0.20.31.63.24.34.74.64.23.52.51.710.30.10.61.93.1

Tide / Current Tables for Masonboro Inlet, North Carolina
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Masonboro Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:42 AM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:46 AM EST     4.35 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:59 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:03 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:27 PM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:48 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:17 PM EST     3.56 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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32.31.40.60.1-00.51.52.73.64.24.343.32.41.40.60.20.20.81.72.63.23.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.