Sunrise 6:57 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 3:29 PM   Moonset 4:02 AM

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FXUS62 KFFC 200017 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 817 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

New 00Z Aviation Discussion

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Surface boundary currently stretches from the eastern Great Lakes back through NW GA. This boundary will slowly sag southward tonight and stall over central portions of the state through the remainder of the short term period. Nearly zonal flow in the mid levels will continue through the period also.

Hi-res convective models have struggled with convection over the last few days and today is no exception. The models have been fairly consistent with convective initiation timing, but coverage of storms has been an issue. Earlier runs of the ARW looked better in terms of storm coverage than the HRRR. Earlier convection east central AL produced an outflow boundary. Convection would likely fire in and around the outflow boundary this afternoon and evening. Do think once convection fires, it could be more organized than the high res models are indicating. Strong storms are definitely possible, with isolated severe thunderstorms also possible. The primary severe hazards would be large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Early tomorrow looks mostly dry. Some isold/scat storms are possible along the old frontal boundary. But, precipitation should become more organized later in the afternoon and into the overnight hours as a strong shortwave moves east in the mid level flow. The atmosphere will once again be favorable for strong/isold severe storms capable of producing hail and gusty winds.

NListemaa

LONG TERM
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Sunday is expected to bring scattered to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms as a shortwave trough kicks through. PWAT is progged to be 1.0-1.5 inches (the daily maximum per sounding climatology is ~1.3 inches). The overnight and morning runs of the SREF have depicted less instability across central Georgia with 200-800 J/kg of SBCAPE generally along and south of a line from Columbus to Macon to Sandersville. Surface-to-500-mb bulk shear of 45-55 kts, along with the marginal instability, suggest the possibility of a few strong storms with gusty to damaging winds.
SPC currently has just a General Thunder risk across this area.
Cooler, more stable air will be in place across the rest of the forecast area, characterized by lows in the upper 40s to mid-50s and highs in the mid-50s to mid-60s. The QPF between Saturday and Sunday ranges from 0.5" to 0.8".

The shortwave trough is progged to move east of the forecast area on Monday with high pressure in tow. Dry conditions will prevail through Thursday thanks to high pressure. A relatively cooler/mild start to the week will give way to gradually warming conditions.
Highs will be in the lower 70s to lower 80s Wednesday and Thursday.

Martin

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 808 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

TEMPO for TSRA remains in place this evening for ATL metro TAF sites through 02Z. Isolated TS remain to north and west of most sites and should begin to taper off, but some brief impacts remain possible, even if probability is low. Some lower cloud cover may impact metro sites in the morning hours, though confidence in seeing BKN MVFR cigs is low enough to keep out of TAF issuance for now. Winds will remain on west side through TAF period, 5-10 kts.
At end of 30 hr KATL TAF, introducing PROB30 for SHRA which may impact site ahead of broader rain expected on Sunday.

//ATL Confidence
00Z Update
Medium morning cigs, high all others.

Lusk

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 63 83 53 59 / 20 20 60 90 Atlanta 63 78 54 58 / 20 20 70 80 Blairsville 56 70 46 55 / 20 10 50 70 Cartersville 58 72 47 57 / 20 10 60 80 Columbus 66 83 58 64 / 10 40 70 80 Gainesville 62 79 53 57 / 20 20 60 80 Macon 66 86 58 66 / 20 40 50 90 Rome 60 71 49 59 / 20 10 50 70 Peachtree City 63 80 52 59 / 20 20 70 90 Vidalia 68 88 65 74 / 10 40 40 80

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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