Monday, November18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wrightsville Beach, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 5:07PM Monday November 18, 2019 1:04 AM EST (06:04 UTC) Moonrise 10:49PMMoonset 12:15PM Illumination 65% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1021 Pm Est Sun Nov 17 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday morning...
Overnight..N winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the morning. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Isolated showers.
Mon night..NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..W winds 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..W winds 15 kt, becoming nw. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
AMZ200 1021 Pm Est Sun Nov 17 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Strong low pressure will slowly pull away from the southeast coast tonight. A dry cold front will bring offshore winds Tuesday night, with high pressure building from the west through mid week. W and sw winds will develop ahead of a cold front late in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wrightsville Beach, NC
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location: 34.21, -77.79     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 180324
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1024 pm est Sun nov 17 2019

Synopsis
Strong low pressure will pull away from the area. Diminishing
winds and drier weather will overspread the area into Monday,
as the low moves away. A dry cold front will cross the coast
late Tuesday. Reinforcing dry and cool high pressure will follow
Wednesday through Thursday with a warming trend late week.

Update
Sky: overcast conditions will continue along the coast all
night. Patchier low clouds across the pee dee region will be
joined by a high cirrus overcast in the next 2-3 hours, with
low clouds filling in beneath this by late tonight.

Temps: raised forecast lows another degree inland and another 1-2
along the coast, based mainly on cloud cover interfering with
radiational cooling.

Near term through Monday
The visually impressive, and powerful extra-tropical cyclone that
brought hurricane force gusts well offshore, and storm force winds
within 20 nm of our beaches, was positioned about 275 mile SE of
cape fear this afternoon. System to drift nne overnight, before
accelerating away, as a highly amplified upper trough swoops in from
the west, and tilts negative over the area Monday.

Diurnal cooling will allow stratus to gain a foothold and infiltrate
overnight, resulting in mostly cloudy nocturnal skies. This and
residual winds will hinder good radiational cooling, keeping temps
above freezing over the area, 37-39 well inland. 40-43 over the
coastal interior, and 44-48 beaches.

The same upper trough kicking our storm out, will also help produce
a few showers Monday, with dynamics strong but moisture limited in
depth. Will leave out tstms for now with poor CAPE in the lower
slices of the atmosphere. H5-h7 lapse rates will run relatively high
but with morning clouds expected, little surface warmth contribution
expected. Elevated convection is possible, but confidence too low
for thunder inclusion. Low-level downslope flow despite clouds
Monday should help warm us up into the middle 50s.

The high surf advisory north of CAPE fear will expire in a few
hours, as breakers fall below 8 feet.

Short term Monday night through Tuesday night
Very quiet conditions for the short term period. A modest mid
level trough will be exiting to the east with ridging poised to
move into the region. At the surface weak high pressure will
prevail. Highs Tuesday will be in the lower to middle 60s and
lows Wednesday morning in the middle to upper 30s with slightly
warmer readings near the coast.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
Mid level ridging will move across the area for the first few
days of the extended period providing dry conditions and a
warming trend. Highs will increase from the middle 60s or so to
near 70 by Friday. A cold front will move across the area late
Friday and Saturday which will reset temperatures a bit.

Continued the slight chance pops with the front as well.

Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
Sub-vfr conditions likely at all terminals throughout TAF period.

MVFR ceilings around 2 kft at all TAF sites currently due to
thin layer of low level moisture. Look for these ceilings to
dominate through late tomorrow. Ceilings will likely lower
overnight, particularly at coastal sites, to near ifr levels. May
see breaks in clouds in NE sc areas towards end of TAF period.

Chance of rain tomorrow afternoon moving in from the west due to
upper level trough approaching the area. Elevated northerly winds
will continue to die down overnight, with winds backing to
westerlies around 5 kts by tomorrow afternoon.

Extended outlook... May seeVFR conditions late Monday night, before
good chance for fog stratus Tuesday morning. PredominantlyVFR
Tuesday afternoon through Friday, with chance for MVFR fog each
morning.

Marine
Strong gusts still ongoing offshore, gale force at frying pan shoals
so the gale warning will hold at least til 6 pm north of CAPE fear.

This will be replaced by a advisory. Sc waters have advisory flags
currently, as seas will need the overnight time period to fall below
6 feet. Seas spectrum to undergo subsiding NE waves every 11 seconds
or so, and diminishing N chop as well, so big improvement into
Monday. Advisory flags may be needed north of CAPE fear for a good
part of Monday, as seas will require time to lower.

Expect offshore winds for the first day or so of the marine
short and long term forecast as high pressure builds into the
area. The transition to a more pronounced southwest later
Thursday and Friday will be one of winds basically light and
variable. The strongest winds of the period will be with the
southwest flow in the neighborhood of 15-20 knots. Significant
seas will be 2-4 feet with the higher values occurring later in
the period with the stronger winds.

Tides coastal flooding
Minor coastal flooding expected on the lower CAPE fear late tonight,
similar or slightly higher than today's levels. Impacts are expected
to be minimal. The beaches will approach coastal flood levels, but
right now, tidal projections keep sea-water rises below threshold of
coastal flooding.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... Coastal flood advisory until 3 am est Monday for ncz107.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Monday for amz254-256.

Small craft advisory until noon est Monday for amz250-252.

Synopsis... Shk
update... Tra
near term... Mjc
short term... Shk
long term... Shk
aviation... Vao
marine... Mjc shk
tides coastal flooding... Mjc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 0 mi47 min N 13 G 18 49°F 59°F1010 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 6 mi57 min NNE 19 G 25 51°F 62°F1009.3 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 6 mi25 min 62°F6 ft
WLON7 9 mi47 min 49°F 56°F1010.8 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 27 mi57 min NE 23 G 31 47°F 1004.4 hPa
41108 36 mi35 min 62°F5 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 45 mi57 min NNE 14 G 21 49°F 59°F1011 hPa
41064 45 mi57 min NE 25 G 37 58°F 74°F1007.8 hPa
41119 45 mi75 min 59°F2 ft
41159 45 mi65 min 74°F10 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC8 mi72 minN 1010.00 miOvercast49°F45°F86%1010.6 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC24 mi70 minN 710.00 miOvercast49°F45°F85%1010.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KILM

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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2 days agoN7N7N8N7N10N7N9NE12NE12NE12NE10N8N11NE14NE14NE16NE12N11N12N12N12
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Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:44 AM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:30 AM EST     4.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:15 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:05 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:47 PM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:49 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.92.31.40.60-0.10.311.92.83.6443.52.61.60.70.100.30.91.62.43

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:00 AM EST     3.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:05 AM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:15 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:17 PM EST     4.74 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:06 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:06 PM EST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:50 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.843.83.42.61.60.90.40.20.51.63.14.34.74.74.33.62.71.91.30.70.40.71.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.