Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oxnard, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...29/304 AM.

Three days of fairly quiet weather on tap before more interesting weather develops late in the week into the weekend.

Today will be the most pleasant of the next three with low clouds confined to Central Coast. A weak ridge will slide into the state and hgts will rise to 575 dam. Look for 2 to 4 degrees of warming across the csts and 6 to 12 degrees for the vlys and inland.
Despite the warming the csts and most of the vlys will have blo normal temps. The mtns and far interior, however, will see above normal temps as those areas will not be affected by the sea breeze.

The ridging will be short lived as a trof will sweep out of NV and into the state. Hgt will fall and onshore flow will increase.
Morning low clouds will continue across the Central Coast and will increase in coverage across the csts of VTA and LA counties.
Lower hgts, more marine layer and stronger onshore flow will all combine to bring 2 to 4 degrees of cooling to the csts and 4 to 8 degrees to the vlys. Max temps will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s across the csts and the lower to mid 70s for the vlys.

The trof will actually pinch off into an closed upper low on Thursday. It is not very cold so there is not much if any instability assoc with it and since it originated in the interior of the country it is not very moist. It will likely produce some afternoon build ups over the taller peaks with a 20 percent chc of a brief shower near the Kern county lines. The only other clouds will be the morning low clouds which will likely extend further into the vlys. Temps will be close to Wednesday's coolish values.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...29/340 AM.

Not much going on Friday the upper low will move off and a weak ridge will move in. Onshore flow will continue but will not be as strong as Thursday. The morning low clouds should clear a little faster and it should be a sunny afternoon. Max temps will bump up 2 to 4 degrees.

A cold late season upper low will move into the northern half of the state on Saturday. It will sweep a lobe of PVA across the region. There is not that much moisture to work with but there will be chc of showers across SLO county and the mtns and a slight chc elsewhere. Rainfall amounts, if any, will be under a quarter inch. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy. Max temps will fall 2 to 4 degrees across the csts but 6 to 12 degrees further inland.
Most max temps will end up in the 60s with only a smattering of 70 or 71 degree readings.

NVA moves over Srn CA overnight into Sunday morning and this will reduce the chc of showers to less than 10 percent.

The upper low will move directly over the 4 county (SLO/SBA/VTA/LA) area Sunday. Hgts will fall to 544 dam which is 31 dam lower than normal. The cold core of the low will destabilize the area and will bring a chance of showers to the mtns. Cannot rule out a TSTM but right not the chc is too low to mention. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue. Max temps will fall another 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees (12 in the Antelope Vly). Max temps will will feel more like a cool January day rather than early May. Look for highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s with maybe a few sites reaching 65 degrees. These max temps are 10 to 15 degrees blo normal for the csts/vlys and 15 to 20 degrees for the mtns and far interior.

Monday will be dry and few degrees warmer as the upper low moves out to the east.

AVIATION
29/1256Z.

At 12Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3000 feet deep. The top of the inversion was around 4200 feet with a temperature of 15 C.

Low clouds and fog were widespread on the Central Coast and in the Santa Ynez and Salinas Valleys. Conds were mostly LIFR to VLIFR. Patchy low clouds will affect immediate coastal areas of L.A. as well, with low MVFR to IFR conds expected. Skies should become mostly clear in these areas by mid or late morning.
Otherwise, VFR conds expected thru early this evening. Low clouds will affect most coastal areas tonight with IFR to locally LIFR conds expected. Clouds may push into the lower valleys with LIFR conds by daybreak Wed.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. There is a 20% chance of IFR cigs 14Z-17Z. There is a 20% chance that IFR cigs tonight will not arrive until as late as 09Z. There is a 20% chance of an east wind component of 8 kt 13z-17Z Wed.

KBUR...High confidence in 12Z TAF. There is a 20% chance of IFR cigs as early as 11Z Wed.

MARINE
29/538 AM.

In the outer waters, good confidence (80% chance) that Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conds will continue much of the time thru early Wed afternoon in the northern zone (PZZ670). In the southern two zones (PZZ673/676), SCA conds will likely continue thru this evening (70% chance), and there is a 40% chance that SCA conds will continue thru late tonight or early Wed. SCA conds are not expected across the outer waters Wed night thru early Fri. SCA conds are likely (70% chance) Fri afternoon thru Sat night, with a 40% chance of GALE force winds Sat afternoon/night.

In the inner waters N of Pt Sal, SCA conds are likely (70% chance)
this afternoon/eve. There is a 40% chance of SCA level winds Wed afternoon/eve. SCA conds are not expected Wed night thru Fri morning. SCA conds are likely (70% chance) in the afternoon/eve hours Fri and Sat, with a 30% chance GALES Sat afternoon/eve.

In the Santa Barbara Channel, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds in western portions during the afternoon/eve hours today and Wed. SCA conds are not expected late Wed night thru Fri morning. SCA conds are likely (70% chance) during the afternoon thru late night hours Fri and Sat, with a 30% chance of GALES across western sections Sat afternoon/eve.

In the southern inner waters, SCA conds are not expected thru Sat morning, then are likely (70% chance) during the afternoon thru late night hours Sat.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday evening for zones 362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).