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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1242 Pm Est Mon Dec 4 2023
This afternoon..W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon, then becoming w. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

AMZ200 1242 Pm Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Offshore winds are expected to continue for the next few days behind a cold front. A second cold front will move across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing a period of gustier winds. High pressure will then return later in the work week.

FXUS62 KILM 041752 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1252 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
Quiet weather in store for this week. After above normal temperatures today, cooler weather in store for mid week.
Warming trend takes place starting end of week, with chance of rain ahead of a front late next weekend.

UPDATE
No major changes through tonight with the latest update.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A cold front moved offshore several hours ago with westerly winds now bringing in drier and slightly cooler air. Dewpoints should steadily fall into the 40s this morning inland and then along the coast by early afternoon.

Satellite imagery reveals two features of note. The first is a long subtropical jet that extends back to convection over the tropical east Pacific Ocean. This stream of cirrus-level moisture should get shunted southward today by the approach of our second satellite feature of note, a potent shortwave currently moving eastward across the Mid-Mississippi Valley.
This system should move across Virginia this afternoon and offshore this evening, veering mid and upper level winds with its passage.

High temps today are expected to approach 70 degrees for most areas, a good 7-8 degrees above normal. With drier air and clearer skies tonight lows should fall into the lower 40s inland and mid 40s near the coast.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
With a weak surface low offshore and zonal flow aloft, Tuesday will be dry and seasonable with clear skies and highs in the low 60s. Low temps Tuesday night around 40F. A strong upper trough moves across early Wednesday, but with atmosphere quite dry (PWATs <= .5") not expecting any measurable precipitation with trough passage. Strength of trough may squeeze out a few drops in a shallow mid level moist layer but that's about it. Backside of trough will usher in decent CAA with deep northerly flow and high temps on Wednesday will be a little cooler in the mid 50s.
Temps Wednesday night drop down to near 30F, with lingering winds hindering radiational cooling.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
End of the week will be dry as ridge develops aloft and surface high pressure shifts overhead. Thursday will see below normal temps before warming to seasonable Friday as mid level ridge and surface high shift offshore setting up weak return flow. Warm weather currently in store for next weekend with decent WAA ahead of an approaching cold front. Rain chances return end of the weekend associated with the front.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High confidence in VFR conditions across SE NC and NE SC through 18Z/05. The main concern will be gusty winds this afternoon up to near 18 kt ahead of a passing dry cold front tonight.

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions are expected to dominate the extended period.

MARINE
Through Tonight...A cold front pushed off the coast several hours ago and drier westerly winds have since overspread the area. Offshore winds are expected to continue throughout the day with speeds generally 10-12 knots. A weak wave of low pressure will attempt to develop well offshore tonight. While not close enough for any weather impacts, this feature may still result in an increase in wind speeds to around 15 knots, especially south of Myrtle Beach. Seas currently 3- 4 feet should subside to 2-3 feet later today with the short fetch length on offshore winds.

Tuesday through Friday...Benign marine conditions on Tuesday with weak low pressure offshore, with light northerly winds shifting to offshore by evening hours and seas 1-2 ft. A strong trough will move across the area early Wednesday, with offshore winds strengthening by Wednesday morning and peaking in the afternoon around 20 kts with gusts to 25 kts. In turn, wind chop will push seas up to 2-4 ft Wednesday afternoon into early overnight hours. Winds and seas both improve by Thursday morning as high pressure moves overhead, with winds less than 10 kts for majority of Thursday into early Friday and seas back down to 1-2 ft. High pressure shifts offshore Friday and will start to see southwest winds and seas slowly increase.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Wilmington
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Mon -- 02:32 AM EST     3.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:41 AM EST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:32 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:44 PM EST     3.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:01 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:32 PM EST     0.46 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:49 PM EST     Moonrise
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Wilmington, North Carolina, Tide feet

Campbell Island
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Mon -- 01:47 AM EST     3.35 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:56 AM EST     0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:32 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:59 PM EST     3.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:01 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:47 PM EST     0.43 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:49 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Campbell Island, North Carolina, Tide feet

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Wilmington, NC,