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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1021 Pm Edt Fri May 17 2024
Overnight - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 3 seconds. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers late this evening, then a chance of showers. Sat - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 3 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. Showers and tstms likely. Vsby 1 nm or less after midnight. Sun - N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: N 2 ft at 3 seconds and S 2 ft at 5 seconds. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the morning. Sun night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: ne 3 ft at 5 seconds and S 1 ft at 5 seconds. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.Mon - NE winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: ne 3 ft at 5 seconds and S 1 ft at 6 seconds. Mon night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Tue - NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Tue night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wed - NE winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 1021 Pm Edt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - A storm system will affect the area this weekend with an increased chance and coverage of showers and Thunderstorms. The associated cold frontal passage of the storm system will occur late in the weekend followed by a stronger push of high pressure that could require an sca Mon into Tue.

FXUS62 KILM 180242 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1042 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
An upper low and cold front approaching from the west will bring unsettled weather through SUnday. Cooler and drier air arrives Sunday night. Later next week will feature a warmup and only a gradual increase in rain chances.

UPDATE
Not much changes needed for POPs overnight from the previous update. Did tweak remainder of tonights hrly and overall min temps upwards based on latest guidance and obs/trends.

Marine, lifting warm front to and across the waters will result in wind directions veering from the ESE-SE to the S-SW. The sfc pg remains rather lackluster with speeds generally 5 to 10 kt except 10-15 kt at the initial ESE direction. Seas generally around 2 ft, dominated by ESE-SE swell around 7 seconds.

651pm Update...
Latest KLTX and surrounding radar trends used to incorporate hrly POPs thru midnight than meshed with ongoing fcst there- after. Ltg difficult to come by given the observed low topped pcpn, thus kept thunder limited to slight chance for tonight.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Increasing WAA/isentropic upglide will cause clouds to lower/thicken overnight. Some light rain should also spread into the area from the south and west but guidance seemed a bit fast as the lift if weak initially. This uncertainty sort of translates into tomorrow's forecast. Guidance varies considerably regarding Saturday's eventual destabilization and our severe weather potential. With both a surface front and a mid level vort and possibly a convective MCV there may be enough forcing to overcome less than impressive instability. SPC continues to highlight our area for SLGT mainly for winds. Shear isn't very impressive but heavy rain and wet microbursts seem the most likely culprits.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Main upper trough axis approaches Sat night and swings through late Sunday keeping the weather quite unsettled. The same arguments above regarding good forcing but poor instability applies, though with rain somewhat widespread pockets of sunshine that were possible Sat seem unlikely Sun. Cooler and much drier air spills in from the NW Sun night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Monday's highs quite seasonable as a narrow area of high pressure builds in but dewpoints barely above 60 will give a much earlier in the Spring feel. The high moves east and upper ridging builds Tuesday and Wed allowing for a warmup. The latter part of the period will feature a bit more in the way of moisture possibly supporting isolated storms caused by mainly mesoscale processes. A cold front could lead to a more substantial rain offering on Friday.

AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR to dominate this evening except for ILM and possibly LBT terminals being affected by low stratus around 1000 feet (MVFR/IFR). Otherwise, mid level clouds dominate that will gradually lower overnight to MVFR/IFR thresholds. Showers should increase in coverage late overnight and continue thru Sat after a WFP lifts northward. Move favorable parameters for thunder occurs after the WFP along with some insolation poking thru. Activity from the SW and a window of destabilization will be enough for PROB30 groups to highlight the thunder threat Sat aftn.

Extended Outlook...The next storm system and associated periodic flight restrictions will continue to affect the area Sat night into Mon. VFR to mainly dominate Tue thru Wed while an upper low remains just off the SE States Coast.

MARINE
Through Saturday... Light S to SE winds tonight with about a category of speed increase on Saturday as a front approaches.
The sea state will be comprised predominantly of wind waves with no appreciable swell, so we should add a foot to the upper range on Saturday, 2 ft opening up to 2-3.

Saturday night through Wednesday... Pre-frontal flow regime will see increase wind speeds as a front approaches Saturday night.
A fairly sharp wind shift to northerly occurs with FROPA Sunday making for choppy, short period seas. High pressure keeps a northerly component on Monday with abating gradient/seas. Light NE winds Tuesday less from the high and moreso from a weak offshore low.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Wilmington
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Fri -- 03:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:56 AM EDT     3.89 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:35 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:35 PM EDT     4.05 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
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Wrightsville Beach
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Fri -- 03:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:42 AM EDT     3.24 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:10 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:16 PM EDT     3.26 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:33 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
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Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, Tide feet

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