Sunrise 6:41 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 8:45 AM

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FXUS62 KGSP 280459 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1259 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
We can expect a warming trend through the weekend and into next week as high pressure remains centered just off the Atlantic Coast. A weak cold front is expected to move through the area on Tuesday bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the western Carolinas.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
100 AM Update...The fcst is in good shape this morning. Current GOES- R shows continued upslope induced widespread clouds with bases arnd 1.5-2.5 Kft. This will limit the fog potential across the mtn valleys. However, some guidance including the RAP are showing an increased signal for fog across the Upstate and NE GA, but increasing StCu moving in from the southeast before daybreak will likely limit overall denseness and coverage if fog does form.

As of 930 PM EDT Saturday: An upper ridge will remain centered near the East Coast through the duration of the near term forecast period. Meanwhile at the sfc, high pressure will be centered over New England/the Mid-Atlantic region this evening before gradually sinking southward towards the Southeast Coast overnight into Sunday.
This pattern will lead to warm and mostly dry conditions through the remainder of the weekend. Earlier light showers that moved across the Piedmont have dissipated as expected, and chances for additional activity overnight are slim-to-none. Lows tonight will end up around 5-8 degrees above climo thanks to both S'ly flow and lingering cloud cover. Winds will turn more SW'ly on Sunday and with mostly sunny skies expected, temps Sunday afternoon will end up a few degrees warmer compared to what we will see this afternoon. So, Highs should end up around 3-5 degrees above climo tomorrow.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 1205 PM EDT Saturday: It will continue to heat up to start off the period as lingering deep layered ridging continues to suppress any deep convection as temperatures climb into the lower 80s Monday afternoon. There should be just enough forcing and convergence along an approaching weak cool front to support a round of numerous showers and embedded, mainly garden variety, tstms in the mountains at some point on Tuesday. The consensus among the latest model guidance maintains a response as this feature translates into the piedmont Tuesday afternoon with another day of lower 80s expected.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1240 PM EDT Saturday: There is better agreement today among the latest runs of the op GFS and ECMWF that in the wake of Tuesday's s/wv passage, that s/wv ridging will translate atop the region during Wednesday reducing any potential shower development chances. Otherwise, shaping to a rather warm Spring day, solid middle 80s across the lower elevations. For the rest of the work week, shaping up to be increasingly active with daily diurnally enhanced tstm chances within the increasingly moist and unstable return flow ahead of the next steadily advancing cool front.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: Scattered light SHRA over the NC/SC Piedmont may produce occasional sprinkles or very -SHRA, along with low VFR cigs at KCLT for the first 1-2 hours of the forecast period.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to persist until around daybreak, when lingering low level moisture is expected to result in development of MVFR cigs at most sites, KCLT being a notable exception. Can't rule out a brief cig restriction there, but this appears unlikely at this time. Any low cigs should lift and scatter to VFR by around noon Sunday. Overnight winds will generally be light between S/SE and S/SW before increasing to around 10 kts from the S/SW by around noon.

Outlook: Drier weather lingers through Monday. A frontal system could bring a round of showers and storms to the area on Tuesday, with more of a potential for mainly mountain isolated/scattered diurnal convection on Wed/Thu.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

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