Tuesday, August20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lowndesville, SC

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 8:14PM Tuesday August 20, 2019 9:36 PM EDT (01:36 UTC) Moonrise 10:13PMMoonset 10:21AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lowndesville, SC
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location: 34.23, -82.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 210003
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
803 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019

Synopsis
An area of low pressure and elevated moisture will persist across
the western carolinas and northeast georgia through Wednesday. A
cold front will approach the region Thursday and become stationary
over the area on Friday. The front will gradually settle south of
the region through the weekend as high pressure builds in from the
north and maintains cooler than normal temperatures. Moisture could
linger behind the front.

Near term through Wednesday
As of 750 pm: a weak upper low over the region has provided enough
shear for relatively low-topped if not long-lived cells this
afternoon. With diurnal instability on the decline, coverage has
diminished, but new development could still occur much of the night
with modest lapse rates aloft, and the aid of weak WAA occurring
in the low levels. This is most likely over the lower piedmont,
southeast of i-85. Sfc-based convection looks unlikely overnight,
and effective shear drops below 20 kt in most places, so while
storms may continue to exhibit some rotation, we don't expect any
more "cold air funnels" as was reported earlier today.

The upper low starts to get absorbed into the upper trough moving
over the mid-atlantic early Wed morning. Fcst soundings continue
to suggest stratus development within the aforementioned waa
overnight, along with patchy areas of fog development as well. Given
anticipated cloud cover overnight, once again, expect overnight
min temperatures to remain above normal.

On Wednesday, expect the unsettled weather pattern to continue, as
a cold front continues to very slowly approach the area from the nw
(though not entering the fa during the forecast period). Low level
wsw flow will supply plenty of moisture in across the area, with
weak upper troughing swinging through just to the north. Latest
guidance continues to prog a few pieces of S W energy moving
overhead throughout the day, with some available instability in
place. MAX temperatures will climb to normal, with some locations
possibly reaching a degree or two above normal.

Short term Wednesday night through Friday
As of 200 pm edt Tuesday: broad troughing will remain in place as we
begin the short term, with surface front extending from a low in
southwestern quebec. Plentiful moisture across the area plus the
lift associated with the front will lead to enhanced pops especially
across the mountains by Thursday afternoon, especially as an area of
channeled vorticity works up the oh valley toward the appalachians
with associated additional moisture. This wave will serve to
elongate the upper trough over eastern canada, with the axis
stretching toward the upper midwest, which will rotate around toward
the appalachians as the wavetrain pushest east into Friday. The
surface trough will remain stalled across the area but precip will
be enhanced again Friday as the shortwave rotates around. Expect
instability to rise to fairly respectable levels both days, 1500-
2500 j kg depending on which model you prefer, but deep-layer shear
will be minimal to nonexistant. Storms shouldn't be particularly
organized without the shear and there should be some movement given
the upper flow, but with the abundant moisture (pw over 2" Thursday
afternoon and even higher Friday), wpc marginal for excessive rain
Friday looks well-placed.

Should see a decreasing trend in temperatures through the period,
from maybe a hair above seasonal normals to a hair below with the
increasing moisture and the front laying out across the area.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
As of 230 pm edt Tuesday: extended begins Friday evening with the
channeled vort MAX shortwave sliding down to the area and basically
stalling through the weekend as it dissipates. Strong surface high
over southeast canada by this point will try to dam down the
appalachians, though not very strongly for Saturday. Plentiful cloud
cover and moisture will lead to a cooling trend with showers and a
few thunderstorms possible, depending on where the potential wedge
front sets up (gfs is farther south than the ecmwf). Temperatures
will be noticeably cooler Saturday afternoon, lower mid 80s across
the upstate and cooler elsewhere, a good 5-8 degrees below normal.

As we move into Sunday, the damming becomes much more pronounced on
the global models, and expect to see afternoon highs drop another
few degrees, by this time maybe 10 degrees below normal. Highest
pops will be concentrated in S and W zones around the strongest
damming, and may need to trend downward with later updates for pops
in the NW piedmont. By Monday we'll be losing the support from the
parent high, leaving us more in just a residual cool pool. Beyond
that going into the new day 7, a lot of uncertainty with model
guidance diverging, but have trended slightly warmer and still
fairly wet. Overall through the period, though wet, not really a
huge soaker with storm-total precip for now maxing out just over 3
inches in the typical upslope areas of the SW mountains. Adding the
short term to that and we could probably see widespread 2-3" with
isolated 4+", but over a 6-day period right now it doesn't look too
bad, rather just some relief from the drying conditions that have
begun to emerge.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
At kclt and elsewhere: weak upper low spinning over the area will
maintain a few shra or even tsra this evening, with the most likely
areas being on the periphery of the current activity. Only kclt
has a mentionable chance; aided by weak near-sfc WAA this chance
persists into the early morning there. Also as a result of the waa,
low stratus is expected to develop over the nc piedmont before
daybreak. Some patches of ifr are possible, but MVFR is more likely
to prevail. A small chance exists this cloud deck will affect the
northern upstate as well. Elsewhere, mountain valley fog stratus
are anticipated, including kavl. The upper low should get absorbed
into an approaching shortwave trough on Wednesday, which settles
over the area ahead of a cold front. This will enhance diurnal
tsra chances--possibly coming in multiple rounds. The period of
peak chance is handled with a prob30, beginning at midday over
the mountains and in the aftn across the piedmont.

Outlook: shra tsra chances will increase with a cold front
Thursday and Friday, remaining elevated thru the weekend as the
front stalls. Some areas of morning fog and low stratus will be
possible each day.

Confidence table...

00-06z 06-12z 12-18z 18-00z
kclt high 97% high 83% high 95% high 100%
kgsp high 97% high 80% high 92% high 100%
kavl high 100% high 83% high 90% high 100%
khky high 96% high 83% high 93% high 100%
kgmu high 96% med 74% high 93% high 100%
kand high 100% high 97% high 94% high 100%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHDS1 - Strom Thurmond Dam, SC 46 mi76 min Calm G 5.1 80°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 74 mi76 min SW 1.9 G 2.9 81°F 1017.6 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anderson, Anderson County Airport, SC18 mi1.7 hrsSSE 310.00 miFair79°F72°F79%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAND

Wind History from AND (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3W3N4N5SW4CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmS64SE6SE5SW16
G20
NE4E5SE8S6S5S3Calm
1 day agoE33NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmS4CalmCalmCalmSE53N4NW6
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2 days agoE7E5E4CalmCalmNE3NE4CalmE3CalmCalmS43CalmCalm66SW7SE4N10
G15
NE8N4SW6SE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.